Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm Posts: 4342 Location: Canada
Key WRB Price Action
3min Regular Session Chart - The price action (key change in supply/demand) that had the most impact on today's price action ocurred @ 0948am est via providing support and confirming a few Long signals via the trading reports.
FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.
Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.
Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=213
My Trading Performance: +13.50 Emini ES points
Attachment:
061109NihabaAshiPnLBlotterProfit.png [ 32.28 KiB | Viewed 2572 times ]
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Stocks End Up, But Off Their Peaks Nasdaq ends at 8-month high and S&P 500 at 7-month high. Dow has highest close since Jan. 6 but stays down for 2009. By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer Last Updated: June 11, 2009: 5:59 PM ET
NEW YORK�(CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks ended modestly higher Thursday, with all three major gauges closing at multi-month highs after the day's economic reports fed hopes that a recovery is brewing.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained nearly 32 points, or 0.4%. Despite falling short of its 2008 finish, the index ended at its highest level since Jan. 6.
The S&P 500 (SPX) index added over 5 points, or 0.6% and closed at its highest point since Nov. 5.
The Nasdaq composite (COMP) climbed 9 points, or 0.5% and closed at the highest point since Oct. 6.
Stocks have been on the rise since bottoming March 9, with the Dow up 34%, the S&P 500 up 40% and the Nasdaq up 47%, as of Thursday's close.
But stocks have seesawed this week after rising Treasury yields and higher commodity prices sparked worries about inflation hampering a burgeoning recovery.
Thursday restarted the advance, as a rise in retail sales and a bigger-than-expected dip in jobless claims raised hopes that the pace of the recession is slowing. But the early advance lost momentum; the S&P 500 failed to hold on after briefly hitting a key level that traders and other market pros watch.
Nonetheless, the trend remains upward.
"The market keeps chugging along and it's pretty impressive," said Michael Church, president at Addison Capital. "None of the economic data screams outright recovery, but the market tends to move first."
He said that the runup has been liquidity driven, with investors not wanting to miss the boat, even after three months of gains. However, the pace of the advance has been slowing lately and that's bound to continue.
He said that the immediate concern over the next few weeks is the rise in interest rates.
On Friday, May import and export prices are due from the Labor Department. Also, the University of Michigan releases its June consumer sentiment index.
Bonds: A comparatively strong 30-year bond auction Thursday helped temper worries about pricing pressures, at least in the short term.
Treasury prices jumped, lowering the corresponding yields. The benchmark 10-year note yield fell to 3.85%, down from 4% early Thursday morning. The yield touched 4% during Wednesday's session for the first time since last October.
Economy: Retail sales climbed 0.5% in May, the Commerce Department reported. The report was in line with forecasts and showed an improvement from April, when sales fell a revised 0.2%.
Sales excluding autos rose a bigger-than-expected 0.5%. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought sales without volatile autos would rise 0.2% after falling a revised 0.2% in April.
But the report mostly reflects the recent rise in gas prices, rather than any new direction for the consumer, said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc.
"Basically the consumer is still dead in the water," he said. "We're not going to see a rise in consumer spending in the second quarter like we did in the first. Household balance sheets are a disaster."
A Federal Reserve report showed Americans saw $1.3 trillion in wealth disappear in the first quarter of this year, as home values declined and the stock market tanked. But the rate of decline was slower than last year. In the fourth quarter alone, $5.1 trillion in wealth disappeared, the biggest quarterly plunge since the Fed started tracking data in 1951.
Another report showed that foreclosure filings fell 6% in May from April, but still saw the third-worst month on record. The report showed that one of every 398 households received some kind of filing in the month, including notices of default, scheduled auctions or bank repossession.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment fell 24,000 to 601,000 last week, according to a Labor Department report released Thursday morning. Economists though claims would dip to 615,000.
However, continuing claims, the number of Americans who have been receiving benefits for a week or more, rose to 6,816,000 from a revised 6,757,000 in the previous week.
BofA: Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) CEO Ken Lewis stressed Thursday that pressure from the government played a key role in the company's decision to complete its purchase of Merrill Lynch last year.
Lewis said the federal government threatened to remove management or board members if the company went back on its promise to buy Merrill, even though Merrill's financial state was deteriorating.
Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets ended mixed and European bourses ended higher.
In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and the yen.
U.S. light crude oil for July delivery rose $1.35 to settle at $72.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest close since October.
COMEX gold for August delivery rose $7.30 to settle at $962 an ounce.
Market breadth was positive and volume on the New York Stock Exchange was light for the fourth session in a row. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers three to two on volume of 1.22 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners nine to five on volume of 2.49 billion shares.
Yahoo! Finance
4:30 pm : The stock market made its way to fresh 2009 highs before paring its gains in afternoon trading. Despite the weak close, stocks were still able to log solid, broad-based gains with advancing issues outnumbering decliners by 3-to-2 in the S&P 500.
The session's advance was strongest among utilities stocks, which climbed 2.0%. Gains were also impressive among energy stocks, which finished 1.8% higher.
The advance by energy stocks came as crude oil prices extended their recent run, thanks partly to an improved 2009 global oil demand forecast from the International Energy Agency. Oil prices settled 1.8% higher at $72.60 per barrel, a fresh closing high for the year.
A weaker U.S. dollar also provided a boon for oil, as well as other commodities. With the greenback shedding 1.1% against a basket of major foreign currencies, the CRB Commodity Index tacked on 2.0%.
Weakness in the dollar intensified after an auction of 30-year Bonds carrying a yield of 4.72% was met with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.7. The results kicked up buying among Treasuries, sending the benchmark 10-year Note higher and the Note's yield lower. Ahead of the open the 10-year Note had been yielding nearly 4%, but it closed with its yield below 3.9%. The 30-year Bond saw its yield pull back to 4.7%.
Higher borrowing costs associated with higher yields have caused concern that an economic rebound could get choked off, with particular challenges for the housing industry. According to Bankrate.com, the overnight average for a 30-year fixed mortgage stands at 5.74%, up from last week's 5.35%.
Economic data had little impact on trading this session. According to the latest Advance Retail Sales Report, both total retail sales and retail sales less autos increased 0.5%, which marked the first increase in three months. Total sales were in-line with expectations, while sales excluding autos were actually stronger than expected.
Still, such discretionary spending is expected to be challenged in coming months as workers struggle to find employment. As such, continuing unemployment claims climbed to a new record high. However, some are encouraged by the continued decline in initial weekly jobless claims. DJ30 +31.90 NASDAQ +9.29 NQ100 +0.1% R2K +0.5% SP400 +0.6% SP500 +5.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1723/2.49 bln/966 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1866/1.22 bln/1167
3:35 pm : Stocks continue to sport solid gains. Consumer discretionary stocks make up the only sector in the red.
Commodities had a strong session, netting a 1.6% gain. The fall in the dollar following a strong 30-year Treasury auction helped spur the move in commodities.
Natural gas was the strongest commodity this session, fueled by a smaller-than-expected build in inventories and the weak dollar. The July natural gas futures eclipsed the $4 mark in the middle of the day, but were not able to hold that level. The contracts closed at $3.94 per contract, up 6.2%.
Crude oil extended its impressive run this session. August crude oil futures contracts finished 1.8% higher at $72.60 per barrel. Crude oil has more than doubled in price since the middle of February.
The gains in precious metals were not as substantial as those in energy commodities. After opening near session lows, gold and silver futures rose throughout pit trade and finished near session highs. The August gold contracts closed at $962.00 per ounce, up 0.7%, while the July silver contracts closed at $15.50 per ounce, up 1.8%. Both contracts are trading well above their 50- and 200-day simple moving averages.DJ30 +53.36 NASDAQ +14.38 SP500 +8.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1734/2.10 bln/958 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1972/907 mln/1043
3:00 pm : The major indices trade with solid gains of more than 1%.
John Donahoe, CEO of eBay (EBAY 18.00, +0.37), said his company has not seen further growth declines since February, adding that he sees stability in the economy, according to The Wall Street Journal.DJ30 +94.40 NASDAQ +20.26 SP500 +12.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1802/1.88 bln/873 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2084/811 mln/941
2:30 pm : The stock market continues to sport a handsome gain as it looks to close above its 200-day moving average for the ninth straight session.
As the S&P 500 continues to move higher, it is quickly pulling up its 50-day moving average. The stock market's 50-day moving average and its 200-day moving average are now separated by just 27 points.DJ30 +107.77 NASDAQ +22.65 SP500 +14.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1823/1.71 bln/840 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2124/736 mln/887
2:00 pm : The major indices are giving back a portion of their recent gains, but they remain well into positive territory. Advancers outnumber declining issues in the S&P 500 by nearly 4-to-1.
Despite the session's broad-based advance, retailers continue to struggle; shares of retailers are down 0.8% this session, but they are up more than 19% year-to-date.
Utilities are making the best gains of any major sector as they climb 2.8%. That marks the best single-session advance by percent since a 3.3% gain on June 1.DJ30 +108.30 NASDAQ +22.38 SP500 +13.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1848/1.56 bln/802 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2147/668 mln/853
1:30 pm : Stocks are extending their gains after recently making a modest pullback. This session's advance has taken all three major indices to fresh highs for 2009.
Meanwhile, Treasuries are pulling back after the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note climbed to 2009 highs during recent sessions. With the Note up more than one full point, its yield is now at 3.82%.
Strength among Treasuries comes in the wake of the latest Treasury auction of 30-year Bonds. The 30-year Bond is up roughly 52 ticks, which has pulled its yield back to 4.66%.DJ30 +136.34 NASDAQ +26.56 SP500 +16.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1881/1.45 bln/765 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2189/614 mln/796
1:05 pm : Stocks lacked direction in premarket trading, but quickly found support after the opening bell tolled. In turn, stocks are sporting broad-based gains as the S&P 500 registers fresh session highs.
Financial stocks are providing key support after a few quiet sessions recently. The sector is up 2.0% as diversified financial services stocks (+4.6%) and regional banks (+4.5%) move markedly higher. Strength among regional outfits follows news from Reuters that Goldman Sachs raised its ratings on several regional banks.
Energy stocks are also showing strength. The sector is up 2.4% as oil prices climb to new highs for 2009. Crude oil prices currently stand at $72.70 per barrel, up 2.0%. Oil's ascent has been supported by an improved 2009 global demand forecast from the International Energy Agency. A 0.9% drop in the Dollar Index has also helped the run up in crude oil prices, and helped propel the broader CRB Commodity Index to a 1.0% gain, even though an article in The New York Times questioned whether China's appetite for commodities is sustainable.
Shares of retailers are lagging the broader stock market with a 1.0% loss. Their downturn comes despite news that retail sales for May increased in-line with expectations, and sales less autos climbed more than expected. Though the numbers make for a nice headline, concerns remain that tough job conditions will hamper consumer spending going forward.
As such, continuing claims climbed to a new record high, though the pace of initial weekly jobless claims continues to slow.
In other economic news, business inventories for April declined 1.1%, which was essentially in step with expectations. The report has had little impact on trading.
Though the major indices are moving higher, the Nasdaq Composite is trailing its counterparts due to weakness among semiconductor stocks.
Just announced at the top of the hour, a 30-year Bond auction came with a yield of 4.72%, which was a bit below expectations, and attracted a bid-to-cover of 2.7. The results have driven buying among Treasuries, sending the benchmark 10-year Note higher to its best levels of the session.DJ30 +106.04 NASDAQ +19.00 SP500 +14.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1762/1.31 bln/863 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2052/547 mln/910
12:30 pm : The S&P 500 remains stuck in a relatively narrow trading range, but the Nasdaq Composite is in a downward drift.
The downward move by the Nasdaq Composite comes as tech stocks surrender earlier gains. Tech had been up more than 1%, but it is now up just 0.3%. Particular weakness is being seen among semiconductor stocks, which are currently down 1.7%.DJ30 +58.80 NASDAQ +9.40 SP500 +8.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1627/1.15 bln/956 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1893/468 mln/1050
12:00 pm : Though trading with gains, stocks have been restricted to a rather narrow range for the last two hours. During that time the S&P 500 has oscillated between 945 and 950.
Despite a slow start, financial stocks have climbed to an impressive 1.8% gain. The move comes as diversified financial services stocks (+4.1%) like Bank of America (BAC 12.94, +0.96) spike. Bank of America's chief executive Ken Lewis is currently engaged in a question and answer session with a congressional panel regarding Bank of America's purchase of Merrill Lynch.
Regional banks (+2.7%) are also trading markedly higher. Some of their strength follows a Reuters report that Goldman Sachs raised its ratings on Regions Financial (RF 4.38, +0.38), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB 7.68, +0.34), BB&T Corp (BBT 22.77, +0.56), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN 4.29, +0.26).DJ30 +55.02 NASDAQ +12.53 SP500 +7.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1645/1.03 bln/899 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1882/418 mln/1027
11:30 am : Following a recent pullback, stocks are making an upward move. The major indices remain a bit off of their session highs, though.
Shares of retailers continue to lag, though. In turn, consumer discretionary stocks are also trailing the broader market.
Telecom stocks have become the front runner in terms of percentage gains. The sector is now up 2.2% as integrated telcos AT&T (T 24.96, +0.68) and Verizon (VZ 29.95, +0.42) put together an impressive advance.DJ30 +79.89 NASDAQ +16.93 SP500 +9.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1698/888 mln/808 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1946/361 mln/940
11:00 am : Gains remain broad-based, but action has become rather choppy.
The Nasdaq 100 (+0.3%) is also up, but it lags the headline indices by a small margin. Large-cap tech stocks are showing a bit of indirection.
Dell (DELL 13.09, +0.15) is finding support after The Wall Street Journal indicated that the company is looking for acquisitions to help increase its growth.
Meanwhile, Qualcomm (QCOm 45.92, -0.15) is down a bit after raising its revenue forecast for the third quarter. The company expects its top line to range from $2.67 billion to $2.77 billion. Qualcomm had forecast third quarter revenue would range from $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion. Operating income is also expected to improve.DJ30 +47.99 NASDAQ +12.70 SP500 +6.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1695/747 mln/758 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1886/297 mln/957
10:30 am : A 1.5% rise in oil prices to $72.40 per barrel has not only helped the energy sector climb to a 0.9% gain, but it has helped prop up the CRB Commodity Index by 0.5%.
Natural gas prices are also providing support in the wake of the latest weekly inventory data, which showed a build. Natural gas contracts were most recently pricing the stuff 3.0% higher at $3.82 per contract.
Precious metals are trading in mixed fashion, though. Gold prices were recently quoted 0.5% lower at $948.90 per ounce, while silver prices were last quoted 0.3% higher at $15.27 per ounce.DJ30 +78.07 NASDAQ +16.09 SP500 +8.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1716/578 mln/660 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1967/228 mln/820
10:00 am : The major indices have extended their early advance, but have pulled back a bit since climbing to gains in excess of 1%.
Business inventories for April declined 1.1%, which is slightly steeper than the 1.0% downturn that was widely expected. Meanwhile, business inventories for March were downwardly revised to show a 1.3% decline.
Shares of retailers still lag the broader market. The group is down 0.3%.
09:45 am : Despite oscillating in premarket trading, stocks are sporting solid gains in the first few minutes of trading.
The early, upward move has been broad-based. As such, nine of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 are in the green.
Utilities stocks are boasting the best gains of any sector for the second straight session, however. The utilities sector is up 1.0% as electic utilities and power trading outfits Constellation Energy (CEG 27.57, +0.55) and AES (AES 10.25, +0.13) show leadership.
Consumer discretionary stocks make up the only sector to trade in the red; the sector is down 0.1% as shares of retailers slip 0.6%. The downturn among retailers comes even though the advance retail sales report for May showed the first increase in total sales and sales less autos in three months.DJ30 +39.08 NASDAQ +6.55 SP500 +3.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1497/194 mln/651 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1708/83 mln/870
09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.30. Stock futures have been seeking direction ahead of the opening bell as early participants continue to assess higher oil prices, rising Treasury yields, and economic data. Oil prices are currently up 0.5% to $71.70 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trading, though it had eclipsed the $72 per barrel mark earlier in electronic trading. The upward move has been supported by a slightly improved 2009 global demand forecast from the International Energy Agency. As for Treasuries, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is only a few basis points below the 4% level as the Note trades near the unchanged mark. It could see some volatility with an $11 billion auction of 30-year Bonds scheduled for later today; the 30-year Bond is currently down 15 ticks, which has its yield up to 4.79%. Advance retail sales for May showed an increase that was in-line with expectations, while sales less autos actually climbed more than expected. The reports didn't have much of an immediate impact on trading since participants view the increases with caution, given the challenges of tough labor conditions. To that point, the latest batch of initial jobless claims slipped from the prior week, but continuing claims climbed to a new record high. Corporate headlines have been a bit slow, but Qualcomm (QCOM) has caught some attention by raising its third quarter revenue forecast; still, its shares are down a bit ahead of the opening bell.
09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.00. Europe's major stock indices are trading in mixed fashion. As such, France's CAC is down just 0.1% as declining issues hold a slight edge over advancers. BNP Paribas is providing leadership, but energy giant Total (TOT) is trading as a laggard even though the International Energy Agency improved its 2009 global oil demand forecast. In Germany, the DAX is up 0.2% as its advancers outnumber its declining issues by 2-to-1. Daimler (DAI) is currently providing the most support to the DAX. As for the FTSE, the British exchange is flat as the financial issues of HSBC (HBC) and Barclays (BCS) advance, while energy outfits BP PLC (BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) falter. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 0.5% higher while Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.1% as it eased back from eight-month highs. Steel stocks found favor after analysts at Morgan Stanley lifted their rating on the sector and upgraded Nippon Steel. In economic news, Japanese first quarter economic activity contracted 3.8% quarter-over-quarter, according to upwardly revised figures. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng settled unchanged after shuffling sideways for the session. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 0.7% lower after trade figures showed that exports in May plunged by a record 26.4% year-over-year, and imports dropped 25.2%.
08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.50. The advance retail sales report for May proved pleasing by avoiding the third straight monthly decline in total retail sales and retail sales less autos. May total retail sales increased 0.5%, while retail sales excluding autos also increased 0.5%. Total retail sales were expected to increase 0.5%, while retail sales less autos were expected to increase just 0.2%. Data for April was revised upward to show a 0.2% decrease in total retail sales and a 0.2% decrease in retail sales excluding autos. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims for the week ending June 6 totaled 601,000, which is down from the prior week's upwardly revised 625,000. The consensus estimate called for the latest initial claims total to hit 615,000. Continuing claims climbed to a new record high by hitting 6.82 million, which is above the 6.78 million claims that were expected, and up from the 6.76 million that were registered the previous week. Overall, the data have failed to inspire premarket participants, such that stock futures now suggest a flat to modestly lower start to the session.
08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.50. Market participants await the latest weekly jobless claims data and advance retail sales data for May. Both reports could cause a stir among traders since the jobless claims data offer insight into labor conditions, while the retail sales data provides clues to discretionary spending behavior following a much better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report for May. Another dose of economic data hits later this morning when business inventories for April are released (10:00 AM ET). Separately, oil prices continue to climb higher; contracts are currently pricing crude 1.0% higher at $72.00 per barrel in electronic trading. The upward move has been supported by news from The Wall Street Journal that the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast a slightly less severe slump in 2009 global oil demand than previously expected. Shares of energy companies are trading marginally higher ahead of the opening bell, while broader stock market futures are up fractionally.
06:17 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.30.
06:17 am : Nikkei...9981.33...-10.20...-0.10%. Hang Seng...18791.03...+5.40...0.00.
06:17 am : FTSE...4446.93...+10.20...+0.20%. DAX...5074.04...+22.70...+0.50%.
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