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 Post subject: March 2nd Monday 2009
PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2009 12:44 am 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi are archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=118

My Trading Performance: +33.25 Emini ES points

--------------------



Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Stocks fell for the fourth straight session as a sweeping selling effort took the S&P 500 down to levels not seen since October 1996.

The downward move slowed late in the session as the S&P 500 approached the 700 level. Though unable to forcefully break below that key level, the stock market still finished just above 700, which will likely represent a closely watched level again tomorrow.

AIG (AIG 0.42, +0.00) fed fears about the health of the financial system by posting a fourth quarter loss exceeding $60 billion, which is being reported as the largest quarterly loss in U.S. corporate history. To help prop up AIG, the government will give the insurance giant an additional $30 billion.

European financial giant HSBC (HBC 28.25, -6.55) will issue a discounted rights offering to existing shareholders, pare its U.S. consumer operation, cut jobs, and reduce its dividend. HSBC also reported lower lower profits.

The announcements came after Citigroup (C 1.20, -0.30) announced late last week that it has reached a deal in which the government will end up with a 36% stake in the company.

Financial stocks finished the session with a 6.8% loss, which was in-line with declines seen in the materials (-6.9%), industrials (-6.7%), and energy (-6.4%) sectors.

With 98% of the companies in the S&P 500 posting a loss, investors pursued the relative safety of Treasuries. The benchmark 10-year Note climbed roughly 38 ticks this session. That lowered its yield to roughly 2.89%.

Though also considered a safe-haven, gold prices fell 0.3% from the prior session's closing price, finishing at $940.00 per ounce.

In other commodities trading, crude oil contracts closed pit trading at $40.15 per barrel, down 11.6% from Friday's close.

Economic data continues to do little to lift investor sentiment, though January personal income and spending were better than expected. Personal income for January was up 0.4% after declining 0.2% the prior month. Economists were calling for a 0.2% decline in January. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for January increased 0.1% month-over-month, in-line with expectations. The prior reading was flat.

The February ISM Manufacturing Index inched up to 35.8 from 35.6 in January. Economists expected a reading of 33.8 for February. Since the reading remains below 50, the slight month-to-month improvement merely indicates the rate of contraction has slowed.

The reports were also largely relegated as famed value investor Warren Buffett stated he believes the economy is in shambles, and that it will likely remain that way beyond 2009.

January pending home sales are due tomorrow morning (10:00 AM ET). Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies on the U.S. economy and budget before the Senate Budget Committee tomorrow (10:00 AM ET). Treasury Secretary Geithner will testify to the House Ways and Means Committee on the federal budget later in the day (12:30 PM ET).DJ30 -299.64 NASDAQ -54.99 SP500 -34.27 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2435/304/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2934/185/1.98 bln

3:30 pm : Market participants seem to be selling indiscriminately this session. Stocks are trading at session lows and several key commodities just closed pit trading with sizable losses.

Crude oil contracts closed pit trading at $40.15 per barrel, down 11.6% from Friday's close. Crude prices spent the majority of the session trading near their session lows. Demand concerns, stemming from ongoing financial and economic distress, continue to pressure crude oil prices.

Contracts for natural gas delivery closed trading at $4.15 per contract, which is almost 1.5% lower than where the contracts closed Friday.

Precious metals were unable to gain amid broad-based weakness in stocks. Gold prices fell 0.3% from the prior session's closing price, finishing at $940.00 per ounce. Silver finished just 0.2% lower at $13.07 per ounce, according to delivery contracts. The metals were actually higher in overnight trading. DJ30 -257.90 NASDAQ -47.89 SP500 -30.35 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2367/354/1.85 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2920/198/1.43 bln

3:00 pm : Stocks are slipping back to earlier session lows after pulling up a bit. Approximately 94% of the companies listed in the S&P 500 are trading with losses.

Meanwhile, the Volatility Index, or VIX, is back above 50 (currently at 51). A higher VIX reading indicates rising estimates for future volatility.

The 50-day moving average for the VIX stands at 45, while its 200-day moving average stands at 39.DJ30 -259.65 NASDAQ -48.01 SP500 -29.99 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2325/383/1.66 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2885/227/1.29 bln

2:35 pm : Stocks began to curtail some of their losses, but sellers have since pushed back. The major indices continue to trade with steep losses.

Within the Dow, Chevron (CVX 58.29, -2.42), IBM (IBM 89.52, -2.51), and 3M (MMM 43.34, -2.12) are the weakest performers.

Chevron is also a primary laggard in the broader S&P 500. Exxon Mobil (XOM 66.16, -1.74) and General Electric (GE 7.76, -0.75) are laggards in the S&P 500, too.

Microsoft (MSFT 15.91, -0.24), Google (GOOG 329.25, -8.75), and Research In Motion (RIMM 37.23, -2.71) are casting the most weight on the Nasdaq Composite. DJ30 -227.69 NASDAQ -44.09 SP500 -26.79 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2324/382/1.50 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2874/234/1.17 bln

2:00 pm : Advancing issues are very limited this session. Among the few slivers of strength in the S&P 500, brewers are showing a gain of 1.6%, but Molson Coors (TAP 35.80, +0.57) is the only company in that industry grouping. Molson Coors had its shares added to the Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs, according to Reuters.

Distillers and vintners are up 0.2%. Their gains come from Brown-Forman (BFB 43.04, +0.06) and Constellation Brands (STZ 13.07, +0.02), which are gaining in relation to TAP's gains. DJ30 -222.93 NASDAQ -41.40 SP500 -26.03 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2286/408/1.38 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2863/238/1.08 bln

1:30 pm : The major indices continue to drive lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has already broken below 7,000 for the first time since 1997, while the S&P 500 is closing in on the 700 level. The S&P 500 has not traded below 700 since October 1996.

The Nasdaq, on the other hand, is still trading above the intraday lows it registered this last November.

Weakness in stocks has prompted investors to pursue the relative safety of Treasuries. The benchmark 10-year Note is currently up more than a full point, which has lowered its yield to 2.88%. However, that is still roughly 80 basis points above the record low yields that were set in late December.DJ30 -239.42 NASDAQ -46.43 SP500 -28.85 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2275/405/1.24 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2865/229/968 mln

1:00 pm : Stocks are struggling, yet again. This session's downturn has taken the S&P 500 to its lowest level since late 1996 as stocks head toward their 10th loss in 11 sessions.

The pessimism comes as a bit of follow through from last week's downturn, which was largely rooted in continued concerns regarding the financial sector. Little changed during the weekend as AIG (AIG 0.48, +0.06), which has been unofficially dubbed "too big to fail" posted a fourth quarter loss exceeding $60 billion. Reports indicate it is the largest quarterly loss in U.S. corporate history. To help prop up the moribund outfit, the government is throwing it up to $30 billion in more funding.

Meanwhile, European banking and financial services giant HSBC (HBC 27.99, -6.81) stated it will issue a discounted rights offering to existing shareholders, pare its U.S. consumer operation, cut jobs, and reduce its dividend. All of that came on top of lower profits.

PNC Financial (PNC 25.89, -1.45) announced it will slash its dividend to $0.10 per share from $0.66 per share. The company noted, however, that adjusted first quarter results to date are in-line with Wall Street's expectations.

Financial stocks, as a group, are trading with a loss of 5.9%. Industrial (-5.9%) and materials (-5.5%) stocks aren't far behind, though.

This morning's economic data did little to improve investor sentiment.

January personal income and spending were both better than expected. Personal income for January was up 0.4% after declining 0.2% the prior month. Economists were calling for a 0.2% decline in January.

Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for January increased 0.1% month-over-month, in-line with expectations. The prior reading was flat.

The February ISM Manufacturing Index inched up to 35.8 from 35.6 in January. Economists expected a reading of 33.8 for February. Since the reading remains below 50, the slight month-to-month improvement merely indicates the rate of contraction has slowed. Also, the index remains at such lowly levels as those of the early 1980s.

The general consensus that broader economic conditions remain weak was affirmed by sage value investor Warren Buffett. Buffett indicated the economy is in shambles, and believes it will likely remain that way beyond 2009.DJ30 -249.30 NASDAQ -44.40 SP500 -28.66 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2240/406/1.13 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2851/241/867 mln

12:30 pm : The financial (-5.7%), industrial (-5.7%), and materials (-5.0%) sectors are leading this session's losses. Wells Fargo (WFC 10.68, -1.42), General Electric (GE 7.68, -0.83), and Monsanto (MO 15.21, -0.23) are the primary laggards in each of their respective sectors.

Based on its current level, the stock market is on track to log its worst loss by percent since dropping 4.6% nearly two weeks ago. If stocks fail to rally this session, the stock market will post its fourth consecutive loss, which would result in the stock market's 10th downturn in 11 sessions. DJ30 -220.59 NASDAQ -37.37 SP500 -25.16 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2241/389/1.01 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2841/234/763 mln

12:00 pm : Stocks are trading at their session lows. Weakness remains broad-based.

Among utilities (-2.3%), Reliant Energy (RRI 3.12, -0.34) is trading with considerable weakness. The company reported a fourth quarter loss of $1.26 per share after earning $0.62 per share in the same period one year ago. Reliant also announced it will sell its Texas retail business to NRG Energy (NRG 18.38, -0.52).

In response to the news that NRG is acquiring the retail business, Exelon (EXC 46.54, -0.68) said it is evaluating the announcement, though NRG hasn't provided enough information about the deal to enable Exelon to judge whether there is an impact on Exelon's pending offer to acquire NRG.

Late last week an article in The Wall Street Journal indicated Exelon garnered a majority of outstanding NRG shares as part of its $6 billion tender offer for NRG. Such a development is expected to give Exelon an advantage in its pursuit of NRG.DJ30 -229.39 NASDAQ -39.38 SP500 -26.83 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2190/399/908 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2820/240/683 mln

11:30 am : The stock market's losses continue to mount. The S&P 500 is now down more than 3%.

Losses are even steeper among small- and mid-cap stocks. The Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks is currently down 3.5%. The S&P 400 Index of mid-cap stocks is down 4.3%.DJ30 -207.35 NASDAQ -33.00 SP500 -23.26 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2091/428/757 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2741/272/573 mln

11:00 am : The stock market is extending its losses. The recent downturn takes the S&P 500 to its lowest level since November 1996.

Declines aren't limited to stocks, though. Commodities are also under pressure; the CRB Commodity Index is currently down 2.7%.

Crude oil futures contracts are pricing oil 9.3% lower at $40.60 per barrel.

However, natural gas is being priced at $4.25 per contract, which reflects a gain of roughly 1%.

Despite being a safe haven for inflation and uncertainty, gold prices are also under pressure. Gold contracts currently price the yellow metal at $937.00 per ounce, down 0.6%.

Contracts for silver are pricing the metal 2.1% lower at $12.84 per ounce.DJ30 -168.77 NASDAQ -27.81 SP500 -19.18 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1982/459/624 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2645/333/477 mln

10:30 am : Stocks continue to trade with hefty losses. The weakness is deep and broad-based as every major sector in the S&P 500 trades lower; eight of the 10 sectors are showing losses in excess of 1%.

Utilities (-0.6%) and technology (-0.6%) are limiting their losses. Utilities, which are typically considered defensive-oriented holdings, are still down more than 14% this year, though. Technology is the best performing sector this year, down just 7.8% year-to-date, as investors pursue the names of large-cap tech outfits that boast lots of cash and little debt.DJ30 -142.09 NASDAQ -21.13 SP500 -16.38 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1905/473/480 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2571/359/365 mln

10:00 am : The February ISM Manufacturing Index inched up to 35.8 from 35.6 in January. Economists expected a reading of 33.8 for February.

Meanwhile, the ISM Prices Paid Index for February came in at 29.0, unchanged from the prior reading. Economists, on average, were looking for a reading of 33.5. Though the reading was up slightly, the index remains at levels not seen in 20-some years.

January construction spending was down 3.3% month-over-month. The consensus called for a decline of 1.5% following the prior reading's downwardly revised 2.4% decline.

Trading up: IMGN 23.1%, FGXI +19.1%, ENZN +16.1%, IOC +14.9%, FCN +13.9%, FAZ +11.1%, ERY +9.8%, TZA +8.9%, CMED +8.8%, BGZ +7.7%. Trading down: HBC -19.9%, LYTS -17.3%, MNTA -16.3%, WGOV -15.3%, BAC -13.7%, NUVA -12.7%, PFL -11.1%, LUK -10.9%, MGM -10%, UCO -9.9%, PHK -9.9%, ERX -9.7%DJ30 -117.56 NASDAQ -11.55 SP500 -12.26 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1659/571/293 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2433/422/231 mln

09:45 am : The major indices are trading with sizable losses in the first few minutes of trading. Both the Dow and S&P 500 have fallen to their worst intraday levels since 1997, breaking the levels set last Friday.

Only 3% of the companies listed in the S&P 500 are trading with a gain. Citigroup (C 1.55, +0.05) is the only Dow component trading higher. According to reports, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is reviewing its investment in Citi. The Authority invested $7.5 billion into Citi last year.

Separate reports indicate Citi may be delisted from the Dow Jones Industrial Index. DJ30 -107.24 NASDAQ -17.32 SP500 -12.41 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1622/493/138 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2414/364/147 mln

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -15.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -19.80. This past Friday the stock market registered its lowest intraday level since 1997. Based on stock futures, the stock market is expected to begin this session below such a level. Traders are extending last week's losses after AIG (AIG) posted a massive fourth quarter loss and indicated it will need more money from the government. The mood overseas hasn't helped improve the early tone. HSBC (HBC) will issue a rights offering and reduce its dividend to raise capital, which is weighing on European bourses. Economic data has been rather solid this morning; January personal income and spending were both better than expected. However, market participants realize that broader conditions remain weak. As such, Warren Buffett indicated he thinks the economy is in shambles, and believes it will likely remain that way beyond 2009. The February ISM Manufacturing Index is due at 10:00 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -15.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.00. The major U.S. indices are on track to open with losses. Weakness is being shared by foreign markets, too, as Europe's major indices trade with sizable losses. France's CAC is down 3.1%, Germany's DAX is off by 2.4%, and Britain's FTSE is trading with a 3.6% loss. Financials continue to trade as primary laggards. HSBC (HBC) announced it will issue a rights offering to existing shareholders and will reduce its dividend. Guardian Unlimited reported Lloyd's (LYG) was battling to keep the government's share in the bank at less than 50%, despite asking ministers for additional funds to shore up its fragile finances. Times of London reported the Bank of England is set this week to begin "printing money..." The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index shed 3.3% as it fell to a five-year low. Japan's Nikkei closed 3.8% lower as banks tumbled amid ongoing concerns. The weakness in financials followed news last week that the U.S. government is boosting its stake in Citigroup. News that AIG is getting a new rescue package didn't help matters. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MTU) retreated. According to reports, Japan's auto sales fell almost 33% in February. Toyota Motor (TM) finished lower... Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed with a 3.9% loss. Trading in HSBC was suspended after the bank issued disappointing announcements. However, shares of China Construction Bank were hit with selling pressure and traded as a laggard. The bank recently issued subordinated bonds to replenish the its supplementary capital... In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 0.5% higher. The gain was helped by the latest Purchasing Managers Index, which showed slowing detioration in the manufacturing sector.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -16.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -21.80. Stocks remain on track for a lower start. January personal spending increased 0.6%, which exceeds the 0.4% increase that was widely expected. The prior reading shows a decline of 1.0%. Personal income for January was up 0.4%. Economists were calling for a 0.2% decline. The prior reading showed a decline of 0.2%. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for January increased 0.1% month-over-month, in-line with expectations. The prior reading was flat. Core PCE for January was up 1.6% year-over-year, which is also on par with the consensus estimate. The latest year-over-year change was down slightly from the previous reading's 1.7% increase. Meanwhile, the PCE Deflator was up 0.7% year-over-year. It was expected to increase 0.5%. The prior reading was revised upward to reflect a 0.8% year-over-year increase.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -15.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -20.80. Stock futures point to a markedly lower start. Insurance giant AIG (AIG) reported a fourth quarter loss of $61.7 billion, or $22.95 per share. On an adjusted basis, the company's fourth quarter loss totaled $14.17 per share. AIG also announced it is working with Treasury and Federal Reserve to improve its capital structure. AIG will be placed in a special purpose vehicle and will issue noncumulative preferred stock to Treasury to raise up to $30 billion. Shares of AIG were recently quoted almost 17% higher at $0.49 per share in premarket trading. European banking giant HSBC (HBC) announced it is cutting its dividend by 29% and will issue a capital raise to existing shareholders. According to value investor guru Warren Buffett, the U.S. economy is in shambles, and it will probably remain so beyond 2009. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) barely broke even for the fourth quarter, according to Reuters.

06:22 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -18.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -27.00.

06:22 am : Nikkei...7280.15...-288.30...-3.80%. Hang Seng...12317.46...-494.10...-3.90%.

06:22 am : FTSE...3681.55...-148.50...-3.90%. DAX...3739.67...-104.00...-2.70%


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