TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Price Action Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
TheStrategyLab Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
wrbtrader (more info about me): http://www.thestrategylab.com/wrbtrader.htm & http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=127&t=850
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Users of WRB Analysis Real-Time Trades - TheStrategyLab Chat Logs (timestamp, entries/exits, position size): http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewforum.php?f=20
Users of WRB Analysis Reviews / Accolades / Testimonials: http://www.thestrategylab.com/Accolades.htm
Review of TheStrategyLab: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=3167 & http://www.thestrategylab.com/thestrategylab-reviews.htm
Price Action Trading: http://www.thestrategylab.com/price-action-trading.htm
TheStrategyLab Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
Telephone: +1 708 572-4885
wrbanalysis@gmail.com (24/7)
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Twitter @ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $850.00 dollars or +17.00 points, Emini RTY ($RTY_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $850.00 dollars

Today's Trade Log & Price Action Analysis is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=181&t=2849

All of my trades are posted real-time at the above link for today's archive chat log in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab free chat room via the user name wrbtrader along with the real-time trades by other users of WRB Analysis for anyone to do a real-time review (you must be a member of the chat room for a real-time review). Also, as stated since the birth of the free chat room TheStrategyLab...we are not a signal calling trade alert room. Thus, there is no trader telling you what to trade, when to buy and when to sell. I'm the moderator (I keep the peace between members) and my own live trades are posted within 3.2 seconds on average after the trade confirmation in my broker trade execution platform via an auto script to minimize delays in posting of my trades.

You can review today's price action trade journal about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit, market analysis) as the trade traversed to its completion at the above direct link to the archived chat log.

In addition, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips in the free ##TheStrategyLab chat room involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility...all key concepts from the WRB Analysis free study guide even though the free chat room is not design to be an education chat room because the education is only performed at the forums in the private threads.


##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. The purpose of TheStrategyLab is for you to post your real-time analysis or trades so that you can review as feedback for any trading day to provide valuable information about the results in your broker statements. If you join the free chat room and then you decide to not post any WRB Analysis about the price action or you decide to not post your trades or you decide to be silent (lurk without saying a word about today's markets)...you're not using the free chat room properly to help improve your trading and the chat room will be useless to you. In addition, we highly recommend that you use the free chat room with a professional trade journal software like tradebench.com, edgewonk.com, tradervue.com, tradingdiarypro.com, stocktickr.com, journalsqrd.com, tradingdiary.pro, mxprofit.com or trademetria.com because they can provide you with the quantitative statistical analysis of your trading. You can then download your results and post them in your private thread here at the forum.

Access instructions for the free chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Price Action Analysis via Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR). All WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1 - 12 are included in the purchase of the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Daily Trading Plan Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=352&t=3733 contains brief information about trading plan, market context, brokers, trading time frames, position size management and other discussions.

-----------------------------

Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini RTY futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives for easy review to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker PnL statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets discussed by members of TheStrategyLab chat room or private thread discussions

The Market at 04:30PM ET
Dow: -25.89… | Nasdaq: +65.34… | S&P: +6.86…
NASDAQ Vol: 2.2 bln… Adv: 1690… Dec: 1250…
NYSE Vol: 933.8 mln… Adv: 1654… Dec: 1257…

Moving the Market

Investors continue to digest Fed's upped rate-hike projections

ECB lays groundwork for ending its asset purchase program, as expected

May Retail Sales much higher than expected (+0.8% actual vs +0.4% consensus)

Financials slide as yield curve flattens; 2-10 spread hits lowest level since 2007

Sector Watch
Strong: Consumer Discretionary, Technology, Utilities, Telecom Services, Real Estate
Weak: Financials, Industrials, Energy

04:30PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 drifted within a pretty tight range on Thursday, eventually settling with a modest gain of 0.3%. Investors were still wrestling with the Fed's upped rate-hike forecast and received another central bank policy decision, this time from the ECB. The Dow (-0.1%) struggled to keep pace, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq (+0.9%) outperformed, hitting a new all-time high.

As expected, the European Central Bank left its key policy rate unchanged on Thursday morning and announced a plan to end its asset purchase program. The ECB in September will cut its monthly purchases in half, from EUR30 billion to EUR15 billion, and then end purchases altogether three months later -- although it will continue to reinvest the principal from maturing securities. As for interest rates, the ECB said they will remain at their present levels "at least through the summer of 2019."

The euro dove sharply following the ECB's policy release and was down about 1.7% against the U.S. dollar at the closing bell in New York. The yield on Germany's 10-yr bund also slid, going from 0.50% to 0.42%, but U.S. Treasury yields were mostly lower even before the ECB decision. The yield on the benchmark 10-yr Treasury note slid three basis points to 2.95%, but the 2-yr yield bucked the trend, rising two basis points to 2.58%. That left the 2-10 spread at its lowest level in more than a decade.

Lenders, which make money on the difference between what they charge for loans and what they pay on deposits, dropped with the 2-10 spread, sending the S&P 500's financial sector to the bottom of the sector standings. The financial group lost 0.9% and was one of only three groups -- industrials (-0.4%) and energy (-0.2%) being the others -- to close in the red.

On the flip side, eight sectors advanced on Thursday. The lightly-weighted utilities group (+1.2%) was the top performer, continuing to rebound after a poor start to the month, and the consumer discretionary sector (+1.0%) was also a notable outperformer. Within the consumer discretionary space, media names were in focus once again after Comcast (CMCSA 33.82, +1.50, +4.6%) outdid Disney's (DIS 108.75, +2.44, +2.3%) all-stock bid for the bulk of 21st Century Fox's (FOXA 44.58, +0.92, +2.1%) assets, offering $65 billion in cash.

Meanwhile, in the tech sector (+0.6%), Twitter (TWTR 46.76, +2.69) added another 6.1% and is now up 16.6% since being added to the S&P 500 on June 7. Social media peer Facebook (FB 196.81, +4.40) also did well, adding 2.3%, but Oracle (ORCL 45.90, -2.37) struggled, losing 4.9% after being downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JP Morgan.

In Washington, the White House is reportedly planning to roll out on Friday a shorter list of tariffs on imports from China, according to CNBC. The updated list is expected to include between 800 and 900 products, down from around 1,300 products originally. The market had a muted reaction to the news.

Reviewing Thursday's economic data, which included Retail Sales for May, weekly Initial Claims, Export and Import Prices for May, and April Business Inventories:

May retail sales rose 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%), while the April increase was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.9% in May (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%), and the April increase was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%.
The key takeaway from the report is that consumer spending on goods was strong in May, which will feed expectations for a healthy pickup in second quarter GDP growth.
The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 218,000, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 223,000. Today's tally was below the unrevised prior week count of 222,000. As for continuing claims, they declined to 1.697 million from a revised count of 1.746 million (from 1.741 million).
The key takeaway from the report is the same as last week: the low level of initial and continuing jobless claims is consistent with a tight labor market.
Import prices excluding oil rose 0.6% in May after rising a revised 0.6% in April (from +0.2%), and export prices excluding agriculture increased 0.5% after rising an unrevised 0.7% in April.
The key takeaway from the report is that import prices continued an upward trend that began in August 2017 and recorded their largest 12-month advance (+4.3%) since February 2017.
Business Inventories rose 0.3% in April (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%). The March reading was revised to -0.1% from 0.0%.
The inventories-to-sales ratio held steady at 1.35 month-over-month and was down from 1.38 in the same period a year ago.

Looking ahead, investors will receive on Friday morning the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report for May, the Empire Manufacturing report for June, and the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June.

Also, the Bank of Japan will release its latest policy directive overnight. No changes are expected.

Nasdaq Composite +12.4% YTD
Russell 2000 +9.7% YTD
S&P 500 +4.1% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.9% YTD

Dow: -25.89… | Nasdaq: +65.34… | S&P: +6.86…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1690/1250. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1654/1257.

03:40PM ET
[BRIEFING.COM]

Energy Settlement Prices:
July Crude Oil futures rose $0.27 (0.41%) to $66.92/barrel
August Natural Gas settled $0.01 higher (0.34%) at $2.97/MMBtu
July RBOB Gasoline settled $0.04 lower (-1.88%) at $2.09/gallon
July Heating oil futures settled $0.02 lower (-0.92%) at $2.16/gallon
Metals Settlement Prices:
Aug gold settled today's session up $6.80 (0.52%) at $1308.2/oz
Jul silver settled today's session $0.03 higher (1.59%) at $17.26/oz
Jul copper settled $0.03 lower (0.92%) at $3.22/lb
Agriculture Settlement Prices
July corn settled $0.13 lower at $3.63/bushel
July wheat settled $0.16 lower at $5.02/bushel
July soybeans settled $0.10 lower at $9.26/bushel

Dow: -10.13… | Nasdaq: +65.96… | S&P: +8.31…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1689/1276. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1717/1220.

02:55PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices are mixed moving into the final hour of trading, with the S&P 500 (+0.2%) and the Nasdaq (+0.7%) higher and the Dow (-0.2%) lower.

Shares of Etsy (ETSY 42.30, +9.29) are up 28.2% after the e-commerce company, which connects artists with online shoppers, announced it'll be taking a larger percentage of its sales. Conversely, shares of Michaels Stores (MIK 18.59, -3.33) and Tailored Brands (TLRD 26.28, -7.17) are down 15.2% and 21.4%, respectively, after the companies reported their quarterly results.

Looking ahead, Adobe Systems (ADBE 258.56, +2.48) is scheduled to report its quarterly results following today's closing bell.
Dow: -32.78… | Nasdaq: +56.58… | S&P: +6.28…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1524/1316. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1631/1272.

02:30PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] The Dow once again slips into the red but the Nasdaq and S&P are little changed since our last update.

Checking back in on the S&P sectors we're seeing just three groups in the red -- financials (-0.9%), industrials (-0.4%), and consumer staples (-0.0%). The Financials SPDR (XLF 27.62, -0.23) continues its four-session slide, down 0.8% today, extending its losses over that period to 1.6%.

The remaining sectors are led by the lightly-weighted telecom services (+1.1%), and real estate (+0.8%) groups with the more widely held utilities (+0.9%) and information technology (+0.7%) sectors also showing solid gains. The lightly-weighted telecom space enjoys decent gains today as constituents CenturyLink (CTL 17.98, +0.44) and AT&T (T 32.59, +0.37) are up 2.5% and 1.2%, respectively.
Dow: -42.89… | Nasdaq: +59.58… | S&P: +7.94…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1513/1296. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1610/1280.

01:55PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] Mostly higher action has the Nasdaq Composite modestly off all-time highs which it made just a few moments ago (7768.60), up about 0.9% now. The Dow remains pressured, though slips modestly above yesterday's close, while the S&P 500 holds onto a 0.3% advance.

Gold futures climbed 0.5% on Thursday to settle at $1,308.30/oz. Nothing new, but as tensions surrounding the U.S.-China trade rhetoric vamp up, demand for the yellow metal has gone higher with it.

In currencies, the U.S. Dollar Index is near today's highs, up 1.0%, at 94.70. The greenback is currently up 1.6% against the euro (1.1605) and gains 0.2% on the yen (110.59).
Dow: +15.55… | Nasdaq: +67.04… | S&P: +9.03…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1511/1304. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1607/1267.

01:30PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] The major U.S. indices are trading mixed in afternoon trading as financials lag a largely broader move higher in stocks.

A look inside the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows that General Electric (GE 13.65, -0.24), JP Morgan (JPM 108.16, -1.81), & Merck & Co (MRK 61.40, -0.71) are underperforming.

Conversely, Walt Disney (DIS 108.11, +1.80) is the best-performing Dow component as media stocks again fly higher after Comcast (CMCSA 33.54, +1.22) went public with its $65 bln bid for Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA 44.53, +0.87) assets.

At current levels, the DJIA is down 0.48% this week.
Dow: -7.70… | Nasdaq: +62.35… | S&P: +7.76…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1520/1290. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1625/1236.

01:00PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks are mostly higher this afternoon, but financial shares have been selling off amid a flattening of the yield curve. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are up 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is slightly lower, down 0.1%.

Investors received the latest policy directive from the European Central Bank this morning. The statement came in as expected, leaving interest rates unchanged and laying the groundwork for ending the ECB's asset purchase program. In September, the ECB plans to cut its monthly bond purchases in half, to EUR15 billion, and then end purchases entirely three months later, although it will continue reinvesting the principal from maturing securities. The ECB also said it plans to keep interest rates steady until at least the summer of 2019.

The euro has dropped sharply since the ECB announcement and is currently down 1.4% against the U.S. Dollar at 1.1629. Meanwhile, the yield on Germany's 10-yr bund dropped as well, going from 0.50% to about 0.42%, but the major European stock indices shot higher, ending Wednesday with gains between 0.8% and 1.7%.

U.S. Treasury yields are also mostly lower, although they were lower even ahead of the ECB decision. The benchmark 10-yr yield is currently down four basis points at 2.94%. However, the yield on the 2-yr note is up one basis point at 2.57%, bringing the 2yr-10yr spread to 37 basis points, its lowest level in more than a decade.

The flattening of the yield curve has weighed on lenders, pushing the S&P 500's influential financial sector lower by 1.1%. The financial group is today's worst-performing sector by a wide margin, but the industrial group is also trading in the red (-0.4%).

On the flip side, the lightly-weighted utilities, telecom services, and real estate sectors are at the top of the leaderboard with gains of around 1.3% apiece. The consumer discretionary and information technology sectors are the next-best performing groups, up 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively.

Within the consumer discretionary space, media names are in focus once again after Comcast (CMCSA 33.58, +1.26) outdid Walt Disney's (DIS 108.29, +1.98) all-stock bid for the bulk of 21st Century Fox's (FOXA 44.47, +0.81) assets, offering $65 billion in cash.

Reviewing today's economic data, which included Retail Sales for May, weekly Initial Claims, Export and Import prices for May, and April Business Inventories:

May retail sales rose 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%), while the April increase was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.9% in May (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%), and the April increase was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%.
The key takeaway from the report is that consumer spending on goods was strong in May, which will feed expectations for a healthy pickup in second quarter GDP growth.
The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 218,000, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 223,000. Today's tally was below the unrevised prior week count of 222,000. As for continuing claims, they declined to 1.697 million from a revised count of 1.746 million (from 1.741 million).
The key takeaway from the report is the same as last week: the low level of initial and continuing jobless claims is consistent with a tight labor market.
Import prices excluding oil rose 0.6% in May after rising a revised 0.6% in April (from +0.2%), and export prices excluding agriculture increased 0.5% after rising an unrevised 0.7% in April.
The key takeaway from the report is that import prices continued an upward trend that began in August 2017 and recorded their largest 12-month advance (+4.3%) since February 2017.
Business Inventories rose 0.3% in April (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%). The March reading was revised to -0.1% from 0.0%.
The inventories-to-sales ratio held steady at 1.35 month-over-month and was down from 1.38 in the same period a year ago.

Dow: -28.35… | Nasdaq: +56.96… | S&P: +5.60…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1479/1293. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1589/1258.

12:25PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to drift sideways, with the S&P 500 up 0.3%.

In Europe, the major bourses overcame early weakness to finish Thursday with solid gains, adding between 0.8% and 1.7%. The turnaround came after the European Central Bank released its latest policy decision, which left interest rates unchanged and laid the groundwork for ending the ECB's asset purchase program.

The statement said the central bank will cut its monthly purchases in half in September and then end purchases entirely in December, although it will continue reinvesting the principal from maturing securities. The ECB also added that current interest rates will remain in place until at least the summer of 2019.

The euro is down big against the U.S. dollar, dropping 1.4% to 1.1624.
Dow: -19.22… | Nasdaq: +60.73… | S&P: +6.88…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1549/1210. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1662/1165.

11:55AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices are still mostly higher, with the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite up 0.3% and 0.8%, respectively.

The top-weighted information technology sector is up 0.8%. Facebook (FB 196.29, +3.88) is particularly strong (+2.0%), as is Netflix (NFLX 389.26, +9.43), which has hit another all-time high.

Shares of Netflix have added 2.5% today on top of yesterday's 4.4% gain following a Tuesday court ruling that allows AT&T (T 32.77, +0.54) to move forward with its acquisition of Time Warner (TWX 99.47, +1.52). The decision will likely set the stage for more M&A activity as traditional media names look to keep pace with Netflix and other up-and-comers.

On a related note, Comcast (CMCSA 33.19, +0.87) on Wednesday evening offered $65 billion in cash for the bulk of 21st Century Fox's (FOXA 44.41, +0.75) assets, outdoing Walt Disney's (DIS 108.34, +2.03) all-stock bid.
Dow: -11.41… | Nasdaq: +60.55… | S&P: +7.23…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1529/1212. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1601/1201.

11:30AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks have slipped in recent trading, pulling the Dow Jones Industrial Average into negative territory.

Financial shares are particularly weak today, largely due to a flattening of the yield curve, which cuts into lenders' potential profits. The 2-yr yield is up one basis point at 2.57% while the benchmark 10-yr yield is down three basis points at 2.95%. That brings the 2-10 spread to 38 basis points, its lowest level since 2007.

The S&P 500's financial sector is currently down 0.9%, which places it securely at the bottom of today's sector standings. The next-worst performing groups are industrials and materials, but they're down just 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively.
Dow: -1.10… | Nasdaq: +53.46… | S&P: -6.46…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1440/1294. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1544/1264.

10:55AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks have been drifting sideways since the opening bell, keeping modest gains intact. The S&P 500 is currently up 0.3%, while the Dow lags (+0.1%) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (+0.7%) shows relative strength.

Six sectors are in the green, including consumer discretionary (+0.7%), technology (+0.7%), health care (+0.5%), utilities (+0.6%), telecoms (+0.7%), and real estate (+0.7%), and five are in the red, including financials (-0.5%), industrials (-0.2%), energy (-0.1%), materials (-0.1%), and consumer staples (-0.1%).

Within the consumer discretionary space, retailers are struggling, giving back a chunk of their June rally. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 49.12, -0.51) has declined 1.0% today, bringing its month-to-date advance to 5.9%. Still, that's double the S&P 500's monthly gain (+2.9%).
Dow: +14.78… | Nasdaq: +52.92… | S&P: +7.04…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1466/1208. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1512/1254.

10:35AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM]

Commodities are beginning the day lower
Overall, commodities, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, are currently -0.7% at 89.36
Dollar index is currently +1.0% at 94.46
Looking at energy..
July WTI crude oil futures are now +$0.16 at $66.80/barrel
In other energy, Jul natural gas is -$0.02 at $2.94/MMBtu
Moving on to metals...
June gold is currently +$6.20 at $1307.50/oz, while Jul silver is +$0.24 at $17.23/oz
Jul copper is now -$0.03 at $3.22/lb

Dow: +41.97… | Nasdaq: +53.80… | S&P: +8.36…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1540/1131. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1585/1164.

10:00AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices continue to hover near their opening levels. The S&P 500 is up 0.3%.

Just in, Business Inventories rose 0.3% in April (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%). The March reading was revised to -0.1% from 0.0%.
Dow: +65.26… | Nasdaq: +36.33… | S&P: +7.03…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1569/1054. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1731/945.

09:40AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages are modestly higher in the opening minutes, with the S&P 500 up 0.3%.

Most S&P 500 sectors are in the green. The consumer discretionary (+0.7%), information technology (+0.6%), telecom services (+0.7%), and real estate (+0.7%) sectors are the best-performing groups. The financials (-0.4%) and consumer staples (-0.2%) spaces are at the back of the pack.

As a reminder, Business Inventories for April (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%) will be released at 10:00 AM ET.
Dow: +72.35… | Nasdaq: +43.27… | S&P: +8.72…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1553/954. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1702/886.

09:12AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +9.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +26.50.

The stock market is on course for a higher open this morning, as the S&P 500 futures are trading 10 points, or 0.4%, above fair value.

Investors are still digesting yesterday's upped rate-hike projections from the Fed and are now looking at the ECB's latest policy directive, which crossed the wires earlier this morning. As expected, the European Central Bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged and laid the groundwork for ending its asset purchase program. The ECB said it will cut purchases by EUR15 billion in September and then end purchases entirely in December (but will continue reinvesting). ECB President Mario Draghi added in his press conference that this estimated time frame is data dependent.

The yield on the 10-yr German bund dropped sharply following the ECB decision and is currently down four basis points at 0.44%. The euro has also declined, shedding 1.0% against the U.S. dollar, but the yield on the 10-yr U.S. Treasury note has maintained its earlier level and is currently down four basis points at 2.94%.

Traders received several economic reports earlier this morning, including Retail Sales for May, Export and Import Prices for May, and weekly Initial Claims:

May retail sales rose 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%), while the April increase was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.9% in May (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%), and the April increase was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%.
The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 218,000, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 223,000. Today's tally was below the unrevised prior week count of 222,000. As for continuing claims, they declined to 1.697 million from a revised count of 1.746 million (from 1.741 million).
Import prices excluding oil rose 0.6% in May after rising a revised 0.6% in April (from +0.2%), and export prices excluding agriculture increased 0.5% after rising an unrevised 0.7% in April.

Today's last piece of data, Business Inventories for April (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%), will cross the wires at 10:00 AM ET.

In corporate news, Comcast (CMCSA 32.72, +0.40, +1.2%) made an all cash offer of $65 billion for the bulk of 21st Century Fox's (FOXA 44.02, +0.36, +0.8%) assets following Wednesday's close, outdoing Walt Disney's (DIS 106.22, -0.09, -0.1%) all-stock bid for Fox's assets.

08:51AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.00.

The S&P 500 futures are trading six points, or 0.2%, above fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a lower note. China's National Bureau of Statistics reaffirmed expectations for 2018 GDP growth of 6.5% even though May Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Fixed Asset Investment missed expectations. The NBS acknowledged that Chinese companies may rush to export their goods in anticipation of a trade war. South Korea's vice finance minister Ko Hyoung-kwon said he does not expect large capital outflows due to a larger interest rate gap with the Federal Reserve.

In economic data:
China's May Retail Sales +8.5% year-over-year (expected 9.6%; last 9.4%), May Industrial Production +6.8% year-over-year (expected 6.9%; last 7.0%), and May Fixed Asset Investment +6.1% year-over-year (expected 7.0%; last 7.0%)
Australia's May Employment Change 12,000 (expected 18,800; last 18,400) and Full Employment Change -20,600 (last 28,000). May Participation Rate 65.5% (expected 65.6%; last 65.6%) and Unemployment Rate 5.4% (expected 5.5%; last 5.6%). MI Inflation Expectations 4.2% (last 3.7%)
Weekly foreign investment in Japanese stocks -JPY108.50 billion (last -527.80 billion). April Industrial Production +0.5% month-over-month (expected 0.3%; last 0.3%) and Capacity Utilization +1.8% month-over-month (expected 0.3%; last 0.5%)
India's May WPI Inflation 4.43% year-over-year (expected 3.76%; last 3.18%)

---Equity Markets---

Japan's Nikkei fell 1.0% amid losses in most components. TOTO, Familymart, Isuzu Motors, Hino Motors, Okuma, Shin-Etsu Chemical, NGK Insulators, Sony, Yamaha Motor, and SUMCO surrendered between 1.9% and 3.6%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng slid 0.9%. Energy-related names like China Petrol & Chemical, PetroChina, and CNOOC lost between 1.7% and 2.2% while property names like Sino Land, Hang Lung Properties, SHK Properties, Henderson Land, New World Development, and China Construction Bank lost between 1.1% and 1.8%.
China's Shanghai Composite shed 0.2%. Hunan Copote Science & Technology, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power, Xinjiang Baihuacun, and Changchun Sinoenergy surrendered between 5.9% and 10.0%.
India's Sensex ended lower by 0.4%. Infosys fell 2.2% while peers Tata Consultancy and Wipro lost 1.8% and 0.8%, respectively. ICICI Bank, SBI, and AXIS Bank dropped between 1.5% and 2.1%.

Major European indices have retraced all of their earlier losses, shooting into positive territory, following the ECB's latest policy directive. As expected, the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged and laid the groundwork for ending its asset purchase program. The central bank will taper purchases by EUR15 billion in September and then end purchases entirely in December -- but will continue reinvesting. The ECB also added that current interest rates will remain in place until at least the summer of 2019. Italian debt has retreated today, surrendering gains from the last two days. EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said that efforts are being made to ensure that a final agreement on Greece's bailout exit is reached at the next Eurogroup meeting.

In economic data:
Germany's May CPI +0.5% month-over-month, as expected (last 0.5%); +2.2% year-over-year, as expected (last 2.2%)
UK's May Retail Sales +1.3% month-over-month (expected 0.5%; last 1.8%); +3.9% year-over-year (expected 2.4%; last 1.4%). May Core Retail Sales +1.3% month-over-month (expected 0.3%; last 1.4%); +4.4% year-over-year (expected 2.5%; last 1.4%)

---Equity Markets---

France's CAC is higher by 0.8%. Peugeot (+2.3%), Airbus Group (+2.3%), and Renault (+2.0%) are the top performers, while financials BNP Paribas (+0.6%), Credit Agricole (-0.1%), and Societe Generale (+0.1%) are mixed.
Germany's DAX trades up 0.5%. Adidas (+1.8%), REW (+1.5%), Infineon (+1.4%), Volkswagen (+1.1%), Fresenius (+1.1%), Linde (+1.1%), and Deutsche Post (+1.0%) are leading the way.
UK's FTSE has advanced 0.4%. Rolls-Royce (+3.8%), Dixons Carphone (+2.8%), BT Group (+2.8%), Provident Financial (+2.4%), and Glaxo SmithKline (+2.1%) are the best-performing components. Conversely, Unilever is down 3.7% after issuing tepid guidance and acknowledging a likely exit from the FTSE.
Italy's MIB is up 0.1%. Prysmian (+3.7%), Ferrari (+3.0%), and Bper Banca (+1.6%) are leading the charge, while Mediobanca (-1.6%) is the weakest component.

08:35AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +8.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +26.50.

The S&P 500 futures are trading eight points, or 0.3%, above fair value.

Just in, May retail sales rose 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%), while the April increase was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.9% in May (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%), and the April increase was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%.

Separately, the latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 218,000, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 223,000. Today's tally was below the unrevised prior week count of 222,000. As for continuing claims, they declined to 1.697 million from a revised count of 1.746 million (from 1.741 million).

Import prices excluding oil rose 0.6% in May after rising a revised 0.6% in April (from +0.2%), and export prices excluding agriculture increased 0.5% after rising an unrevised 0.7% in April.

08:01AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.50.

Futures are a tick higher this morning as investors continue to digest yesterday's upped rate-hike projections from the Fed, which is now calling for four rate hikes in total this year (up from three), and the ECB's latest policy directive, which was just released. The S&P 500 futures are three points, or 0.1%, above fair value.

As expected, the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged and laid the groundwork for ending its asset purchase program. The central bank will taper purchases by EUR15 billion in September and then end purchases entirely in December -- but will continue reinvesting. The ECB also added that current interest rates will remain in place until at least the summer of 2019. The euro has slipped following the decision and is currently down 0.3% against the U.S. dollar.

Back in the States, investors will receive several pieces of economic data today. Retail Sales for May (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%), Export and Import Prices for May, and weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 223K) will be released at 8:30 AM ET, and Business Inventories for April (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%) will cross the wires at 10:00 AM ET.

U.S. Treasuries are mostly higher in early trading, pushing the benchmark 10-yr yield lower by four basis points to 2.94%. However, the yield on the Fed-sensitive 2-yr Treasury note is unchanged, hovering at its Wednesday close of 2.56%. Separately, WTI crude futures are up 0.4% at $66.90 per barrel.

In U.S. corporate news:

Comcast (CMCSA 32.13, -0.19): -0.6% after offering $65 billion in cash for the bulk of 21st Century Fox's (FOXA) assets -- outdoing Disney's (DIS) all-stock bid.
Michaels Stores (MIK 18.38, -3.55): -16.2% after lowering its earnings guidance for the second quarter.
Tailored Brands (TLRD 27.15, -6.30): -18.8% after missing same-store sales estimates for the first quarter.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a lower note. Japan's Nikkei -1.0%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.9%, China's Shanghai Composite -0.2%, India's Sensex -0.4%.
In economic data:
China's May Retail Sales +8.5% year-over-year (expected 9.6%; last 9.4%), May Industrial Production +6.8% year-over-year (expected 6.9%; last 7.0%), and May Fixed Asset Investment +6.1% year-over-year (expected 7.0%; last 7.0%)
Australia's May Employment Change 12,000 (expected 18,800; last 18,400) and Full Employment Change -20,600 (last 28,000). May Participation Rate 65.5% (expected 65.6%; last 65.6%) and Unemployment Rate 5.4% (expected 5.5%; last 5.6%). MI Inflation Expectations 4.2% (last 3.7%)
Weekly foreign investment in Japanese stocks -JPY108.50 billion (last -527.80 billion). April Industrial Production +0.5% month-over-month (expected 0.3%; last 0.3%) and Capacity Utilization +1.8% month-over-month (expected 0.3%; last 0.5%)
India's May WPI Inflation 4.43% year-over-year (expected 3.76%; last 3.18%)
In news:
China's National Bureau of Statistics reaffirmed expectations for 2018 GDP growth of 6.5% even though May Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Fixed Asset Investment missed expectations. The NBS acknowledged that Chinese companies may rush to export their goods in anticipation of a trade war.
South Korea's vice finance minister Ko Hyoung-kwon said he does not expect large capital outflows due to a larger interest rate gap with the Federal Reserve.

Major European indices have jumped into the green following the ECB's latest policy decision, although Italy's MIB (-0.1%) is still lagging. France's CAC +0.4%, Germany's DAX +0.2%, UK's FTSE unch.
In economic data:
Germany's May CPI +0.5% month-over-month, as expected (last 0.5%); +2.2% year-over-year, as expected (last 2.2%)
UK's May Retail Sales +1.3% month-over-month (expected 0.5%; last 1.8%); +3.9% year-over-year (expected 2.4%; last 1.4%). May Core Retail Sales +1.3% month-over-month (expected 0.3%; last 1.4%); +4.4% year-over-year (expected 2.5%; last 1.4%)
In news:
The ECB left interest rates unchanged and laid out the groundwork for ending its asset purchase program. The central bank will taper purchases by EUR15 billion in September and then end purchases entirely in December -- but will continue reinvesting. The ECB also added that current interest rates will remain in place until at least the summer of 2019.
EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said that efforts are being made to ensure that a final agreement on Greece's bailout exit is reached at the next Eurogroup meeting.
Italian debt has retreated today, surrendering gains from the last two days.

07:30AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.80.

06:58AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.30.

06:58AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...22739...-227.80...-1.00%. Hang Seng...30440...-285.00...-0.90%.

06:58AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...7662.21...-41.50...-0.50%. DAX...12849.23...-41.40...-0.30%.

04:30PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks drifted flat to slightly higher for much of Wednesday's session, but slipped in the afternoon following the Fed's decision to up its rate-hike forecast. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished lower by 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, while the Nasdaq shed 0.1%, slipping from its all-time high.

The Federal Open Market Committee decided to raise interest rates for the second time this year on Wednesday, increasing the fed funds target range by a quarter point to 1.75% to 2.00%. The market had expected the rate hike, but the updated rate-hike forecast took some by surprise as the Fed is now calling for four rate hikes in 2018 -- up from three in March. Treasuries sold off sharply following the policy release, sending yields to new highs, but bounced back a bit before the close. The benchmark 10-yr yield finished up two basis points at 2.98%.

Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported late in the session that the White House is preparing to implement tariffs on tens of billions of dollars of Chinese goods as early as Friday, which will likely spark heavy retaliation from Beijing. The equity market sold off and then bounced back following the Fed decision, but dropped once again following the WSJ report -- muddying the waters as to exactly what to credit for the slide into the close.

Elsewhere, media names were in focus after a federal judge ruled in favor of AT&T (T 32.22, -2.13, -6.2%) in its drawn-out legal battle with the Justice Department. The ruling allows AT&T to move forward with its acquisition of Time Warner (TWX 97.95, +1.73, +1.8%) and sets the stage for more merger activity in the future.

Comcast (CMCSA 32.32, -0.06, -0.2%), for instance, upped its bid for the bulk of 21st Century Fox's (FOXA 43.66, +3.12, +7.7%) assets immediately following Wednesday's closing bell. Comcast is now offering $35 per share, which represents a premium of around 19% to Walt Disney's (DIS 106.31, +1.98, +1.9%) all-stock offer. Fox had accepted the Disney offer six months ago, but the deal was never finalized, leaving the door open for Comcast to shake things up.

On a related note, Netflix (NFLX 379.93, +16.10), which has been a big player in forcing traditional media companies to reinvent themselves, rallied 4.4% on Wednesday, hitting a new all-time high. Goldman increased its target price for the content-streaming giant to $490 -- a new Street high -- which helped fuel the bullish bias.

Reviewing Wednesday's economic data, which was limited to the Producer Price Index for May and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index:

Producer prices rose 0.5% in May (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%) and core producer prices increased 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%). Year-over-year, producer prices are up 3.1% (vs +2.6% in April) and core producer prices have risen 2.4% (vs +2.3% in April).
The key takeaway from the report is that large increases were registered in the indexes for processed goods for intermediate demand (+1.5%) and unprocessed goods for intermediate demand (+2.5%), which was related mostly to higher energy prices. This suggests a potential buildup of pipeline pricing pressures that could carry through to the index for final demand if there isn't any energy price relief.
The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index decreased 1.5% to follow last week's increase of 4.1%.

On Thursday, investors will receive Retail Sales for May, export and import prices for May, weekly Initial Claims, and April Business Inventories. In addition, the European Central Bank will release its latest policy directive, which is expected to reference the end of the central bank's asset purchase program.

Nasdaq Composite +11.5% YTD
Russell 2000 +9.2% YTD
S&P 500 +3.8% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +2.0% YTD

Dow: -119.53… | Nasdaq: -8.09… | S&P: -11.22…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1296/1647. …NYSE Adv/Dec 986/1939.

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