TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $1,875.00 dollars or +37.50 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $1,875.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips in ##TheStrategyLab chat room involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=139&t=1983


Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Price Action Analysis via Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

All WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1 - 12 are included in the purchase of the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=255&t=2625

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

4:10 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages snapped their five-day losing streak with a broad-based advance on Friday. The S&P 500 (+1.3%) reclaimed its 100-day moving average (2,007) and narrowed its weekly decline to 1.3%.

The stock market was on shaky footing in the early going, but the overall risk tolerance was improved by a rebound in crude oil, which continued climbing throughout the session to end higher by 4.6% at $48.50/bbl. That advance bolstered the energy sector (+3.2%), which spent the day in the lead.

Meanwhile, the remaining cyclical groups ended a bit closer to their flat lines. The materials sector (+1.7%) outperformed with help from steelmakers and miners while the discretionary sector (+1.3%) settled in line with the broader market. As for the remaining three growth-sensitive groups, financials (+1.2%), industrials (+0.7%), and technology (+0.9%) spent the day behind the broader market.

The financial sector could not catch up to the S&P 500 as Goldman Sachs (GS 177.23, -1.26) weighed. The stock fell 0.7% despite better than expected results from the investment bank. Also of note, foreign exchange broker FXCM (FXCM 12.63, 0.00) agreed to terms on a $300 million lifeline provided by Leucadia National (LUK 21.84, +0.20) after yesterday's surge in the Swiss franc caused about $225 million in negative client balances at FXCM. Shares of FXCM were halted throughout the session after surrendering almost 90.0% in pre-market action.

Elsewhere, the technology sector struggled to keep pace with the market as Apple (AAPL 105.94, -0.88) weighed. The largest sector component lost 0.8% while most other heavily-weighted tech names settled with gains. On the earnings front, Intel (INTC 36.45, +0.26) gained 0.7% after beating bottom-line estimates. For its part, the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+1.1%) ended just behind the S&P 500.

Over on the countercyclical side, consumer staples (+0.8%) and utilities (+0.9%) underperformed throughout the day while telecom services (+1.7%) and health care (+1.9%) spent the day among the leaders. The health care sector was bolstered by high-beta biotechnology names, evidenced by a 3.3% gain in the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 317.82, +10.12). The ETF was able to add 1.4% for the week versus a slim uptick of 0.2% for the health care sector.

Treasuries notched their highs in the early morning before spending the session in a steady retreat that sent the benchmark 10-yr yield higher by 11 basis points to 1.82%.

Friday's participation was ahead of average with 950 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data included CPI, Industrial Production, and Michigan Sentiment:

The CPI declined 0.4% in December after declining 0.3% in November while the Briefing.com Consensus expected a decline of 0.4%
Prices are up only 0.8% year-over-year, which is the smallest increase since October 2009
The energy index, which has fallen for the past six consecutive months, declined 4.7% in December
Food prices increased 0.3% in December, up from a 0.2% increase in November
Excluding food and energy, core CPI was flat in December (consensus +0.1%) after increasing 0.1% in November
Industrial production declined 0.1% in December after increasing an unrevised 1.3% in November (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%)
The decline in industrial production can be blamed on warmer-than-normal temperatures that reduced the demand for heating. According to the National Climatic Data Center, December 2014 was the second warmest December on record. That was a large reversal from November, which was the coldest November since 2000. The shift in temperatures resulted in a 7.3% decline in utilities production
Capacity utilization hit 79.7% while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 79.9%
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index jumped to 98.2 in the preliminary January reading from 93.6 in December while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 94.1
That was the highest reading since the index reached 103.8 in January 2004

Bond and equity markets will be closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Day.

On Tuesday, the NAHB Housing Market Index will be released at 10:00 ET.

Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.8% YTD
S&P 500 -1.9% YTD
Nasdaq Composite -2.2% YTD
Russell 2000 -2.5% YTD

Week in Review: Slipping and Sliding

The stock market began the week on the defensive with the Nasdaq (-0.8%) and S&P 500 (-0.8%) pacing the Monday slide. The Dow (-0.5%) and Russell 2000 (-0.3%) outperformed, but the two indices also spent the bulk of the day in negative territory. Equities opened the trading day with slim gains that evaporated during the first few minutes of the session. The S&P 500 slumped back below its 50-day moving average (2046) at the start and spent the rest of the day well below that level as influential sectors weighed. Most notably, the energy sector (-2.8%) was the weakest performer with crude oil contributing to the pressure after Goldman Sachs lowered its short-term forecast for the commodity. WTI crude ended the pit session on its low, down 4.9% at $46.07/bbl. Meanwhile, the remaining cyclical groups registered slimmer losses, but heavily-weighted financials (-0.9%) and technology (-1.3%) kept the market under pressure throughout the session.

The major averages enjoyed broad-based support at the start of the Tuesday session, but the opposite was true when the trading day ended. The S&P 500 lost 0.3% with eight sectors settling in the red. The final standing masked the fact that the benchmark index was up in excess of 1.0% at the start of the day. The S&P 500 spent the first 90 minutes near its high, but the absence of intraday buying interest opened the door to a retreat that accelerated when the S&P cut through its 50-day moving average (2046/2047). Commodity-related sectors fueled the pullback from highs with energy (-0.7%) and materials (-1.2%) ending the day at the bottom of the barrel. The two groups struggled to keep pace with the market in the early going and their underperformance became more notable during the afternoon retreat.

Equities endured their fourth consecutive decline on Wednesday with the S&P 500 (-0.6%) making an intraday appearance below its 100-day moving average (2,007). The tech-heavy Nasdaq outperformed, but still lost 0.5%. Stocks faced selling pressure from the start after the overnight session failed to alleviate the growth concerns that contributed to the recent weakness. Instead, the concerns grew larger, starting with the World Bank's reduced growth outlook for 2015 (to 3.0% from 3.4%) and 2016 (to 3.3% from 3.5%). The lowered outlook pressured commodities, and especially copper, which remained under pressure throughout the day, ending lower by 4.9% at $2.51/lb after hitting a low near the $2.45/lb level. Crude oil, however, traded in the red during morning action, but rocketed into the pit close, which helped the broader market climb off its intraday low. The energy component spiked 5.7% to $48.55/bbl.

The stock market continued its rough week on Thursday with the S&P 500 (-0.9%) registering its fifth consecutive decline after failing to hold the 100-day moving average (2007). The price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.6%) fared a bit better while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.5%) and Russell 2000 (-1.7%) underperformed. Market participants were greeted by an astounding move in the foreign exchange market. Specifically, the Swiss franc was up as much as 25.0% against the dollar after the Swiss National Bank abandoned the EURCHF 1.20 floor and lowered the benchmark deposit rate to -0.75%. The move was likely taken in anticipation of a QE announcement from the ECB, and the dollar/franc pair was able to narrow its loss to 15.0% (0.8687); however, that was still large enough to resonate with investors who were lulled into a false sense of security by the SNB's pledge to maintain the exchange rate floor. Equity indices began the day with slim gains, but the morning strength faded alongside crude oil, which slid from a session high at $51.00/bbl to $46.57/bbl. The energy component ended the day lower by 4.1%, but that masked the fact that crude fell almost 9.0% from its best level of the day. Furthermore, that pullback was closely correlated with a broad-market slide, which was paced by cyclical sectors.

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.9% with one hour remaining in the final session of the week. Barring a final-hour spill, the benchmark index will register its first advance of the week, narrowing its weekly loss to 1.7%.

Investors received a flurry of Q4 earnings reports this week, but many more results will hit the market next week. On Tuesday morning, Dow component Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 103.40, +0.91) will report alongside Delta Airlines (DAL 45.42, +0.37) and Halliburton (HAL 39.10, +1.77) while the after-hours session will feature results from Netflix (NFLX 332.33, +8.57), IBM (IBM 156.95, +2.38), among others.

2:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Quiet afternoon action continues with the S&P 500 (+0.8%) trading within five points of its session high.

Sector standing remains little changed with energy (+2.7%) trading well ahead of the remaining nine groups. The growth-sensitive sector continues drawing strength from crude oil, which is higher by 3.9% at $48.06/bbl heading into the pit close. The energy component has been volatile this week, but is on track to end the week with a $0.45/bbl gain.

Elsewhere, the industrial sector (+0.2%) represents the weakest performer of the day with large components like Boeing (BA 130.08, -0.06), General Electric (GE 23.60, +0.02), and Caterpillar (CAT 83.30, -1.02) keeping the sector from adding to its slim gain.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices hover near their best levels of the session.

Year-over-year, core CPI is up only 1.6%, down from a 1.7% increase in November. Typically, the CPI runs about 0.5 percentage points below the PCE price index. Thus, current inflation trends are about 1.0 percentage point below target and are downward trending.

There was nothing in the core data that would suggest an impending increase in consumer prices.

Manufacturing production remained firm even though the regional and national ISM surveys were leaning slightly negative. Manufacturing production increased 0.3% in December, down from an upwardly revised 1.3% (from 1.1%) in November.

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Despite a slight pullback in recent trade, U.S. equities continue to sport solid gains on the day with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both up 0.6%.

With all S&P 500 sectors in the green on the day, Energy (+2.40) remains the strongest performer on the heels of a bounce in the futures prices of WTI crude (+1.73 to 47.98/bbl).

As mentioned earlier, shares in FXCM (FXCM 1.49, -11.14) were under heavy pressure in the pre-market session after the company announced that clients experienced significant losses following the volatility in the EUR/CHF and generated losses of ~$225 mln, which the company feared could push it into breach of some regulatory capital requirements. Shares, which were trading down 88% this morning, were halted for news pending before the official market open. A couple hours later, headlines emerged that Jefferies, a subsidiary of Leucadia Nat'l (LUK 21.84, +0.20) is considering offering a ~$200 mln rescue deal with FXCM. Shortly after, shares in LUK were halted as well, so at this point, shares in both companies remain halted for news pending with no official announcement or confirmation of any talks or developments that have emerged.

12:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages hold midday gains with the Russell 2000 (+1.0%) trading ahead of the S&P 500 (+0.9%).

Equity indices spent the first hour of the session near their flat lines, but a handful of recent laggards were able to lead the market higher. To that point, the energy sector (+2.6%) seized the lead thanks to a comparable rebound in crude oil. At this juncture, WTI crude is higher by 3.4% at $47.81/bbl while the energy sector has been able to narrow its week-to-date loss to 2.0% versus a 1.6% decline for the S&P 500.

However, outside of energy, the remaining cyclical sectors have not been nearly as strong. Materials (+1.1%) and consumer discretionary (+1.0%) trade in the neighborhood of the broader market while financials (+0.7%), industrials (+0.3%), and technology (+0.6%) underperform.

The financial sector has been weighed down by Goldman Sachs (GS 177.91, -0.58), which has given up 0.4% despite reporting better than expected results. Similarly, Intel (INTC 36.20, +0.01) also beat estimates, but the stock has been spinning its wheels, thus keeping some pressure on the technology sector. Other large cap tech names trade mixed with Apple (AAPL 105.42, -1.40) and Qualcomm (QCOM 70.99, -0.39) in the red while Google (GOOGL 506.51, +2.50) and Microsoft (MSFT 45.88, +0.40) sport gains.

Over on the countercyclical side, the influential health care sector (+1.3%) has received support from biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 314.32, +6.62) is higher by 2.2%. The telecom sector (+1.5%) also trades ahead of the broader market while consumer staples (+0.6%) and utilities (+0.6%) lag.

Treasuries hover near their lows after retreating throughout the morning. The 10-yr yield is higher by ten basis points at 1.82%.

Economic data included CPI, Industrial Production, and Michigan Sentiment:

The CPI declined 0.4% in December after declining 0.3% in November while the Briefing.com Consensus expected a decline of 0.4%
Prices are up only 0.8% year-over-year, which is the smallest increase since October 2009
The energy index, which has fallen for the past six consecutive months, declined 4.7% in December
Food prices increased 0.3% in December, up from a 0.2% increase in November.
Excluding food and energy, core CPI was flat in December (consensus +0.1%) after increasing 0.1% in November
Industrial production declined 0.1% in December after increasing an unrevised 1.3% in November (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%)
The decline in industrial production can be blamed on warmer-than-normal temperatures that reduced the demand for heating. According to the National Climatic Data Center, December 2014 was the second warmest December on record. That was a large reversal from November, which was the coldest November since 2000. The shift in temperatures resulted in a 7.3% decline in utilities production
Capacity utilization hit 79.7% while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 79.9%
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index jumped to 98.2 in the preliminary January reading from 93.6 in December while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 94.1
That was the highest reading since the index reached 103.8 in January 2004

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Not much change in the major averages with the S&P 500 (+0.5%) spending the past 90 within a six-point range. If the benchmark index holds its gain into the afternoon, today's advance will represent the first gain in six sessions. However, the index is likely to register its third consecutive decline on a weekly basis, considering it remains lower by 2.8% for the week.

For the time being, only two sectors-telecom services (+1.1%) and utilities (+0.3%)-are tracking respective weekly gains of 1.4% and 2.0% while another countercyclical group-consumer staples (+0.2%)-is down 0.3% for the week, but the sector could erase that loss during afternoon action.

Elsewhere, financials (+0.3%) and technology (unch) hold respective week-to-date losses of 3.6% and 3.3%, and the two groups have struggled to keep pace with the market today.

11:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices continue hovering near their recent levels with the S&P 500 trading higher by 0.4%.

The energy sector (+2.1%) remains in the lead while the other cyclical sectors continue trading mixed with respect to the broader market. The materials sector (+0.6%) is the only other outperformer while the discretionary space (+0.4%) trades in-line. This leaves the remaining three cyclical sectors a bit behind the market. The industrial sector (-0.3%) hovers in the red while financials (+0.2%) and technology (unch) have not been able to catch up to the broader market.

The top-weighted technology sector has been pressured by a handful of large names like Apple (AAPL 105.40, -1.40), and Intel (INTC 35.99, -0.20) with the latter trading lower by 0.6% despite beating earnings estimates.

11:25 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have inched up to new highs with the S&P 500 now up 0.5%. The benchmark index trades ahead of the Dow (+0.2%), but just behind the Russell 2000 (+0.6%).

The recent advance to new highs occurred as the influential sectors that have been highlighted earlier narrowed their distance to the broader market. Namely, financials (+0.2%) and technology (+0.2%) now sport modest gains while the industrial sector (-0.2%) has yet to make its way into the green as heavily-weighted components like General Electric (GE 23.56, -0.02), Boeing (BA 129.48, -0.66), and Caterpillar (CAT 83.20, -1.12) weigh. Transport stocks, meanwhile, have had a decent showing with the Dow Jones Transportation Average trading higher by 0.3%.

Elsewhere, Treasuries hover just above their lows with the 10-yr yield up nine basis points at 1.81%.

10:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Recent action saw the S&P 500 claw back to its session high in the 2,001 area. The benchmark index currently hovers just below that level with seven sectors showing gains.

Notably, the energy sector is higher by 2.4%, which has helped the sector narrow its January decline to 5.3%. The advance has been aided by crude oil, which trades up 3.0% at $47.64/bbl.

Meanwhile, the remaining cyclical sectors have not been nearly as strong. Consumer discretionary (+0.2%) and materials (+0.4%) hold modest gains, but technology (unch), financials (unch), and industrials (-0.4%) lag.

The three underperformers deserve close attention as the session wears on considering the three groups are large enough to influence the broader market, especially if they move in unison. Over on the countercyclical side, the health care sector (+0.4%) trades ahead of the market with help from biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 310.51, +2.81) has jumped 0.9%.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Despite strength in the dollar index this morning, WTI crude oil prices are taking off
Both WTI and brent crude oil have both been climbing higher and WTI crude just hit a new high for today
Feb WTI crude is now +4.1% at $48.17/barrel
Natural gas has been in the red all day so far and is now -1.8% at $3.10/MMBtu
Precious metals rallied in recent trade, pushing gold and silver to new highs on the day
Feb gold is now +0.9% at $1276.40/oz, while Mar silver is +2.7% at $17.56/oz

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has narrowed its gain to 0.2%.

Just released, the preliminary reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey for January jumped to 98.2 from the reading of 93.6 that was reported in December. The Briefing.com consensus expected an uptick to 94.1.

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market has climbed out of the gate amid broad strength. The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.4% with nine sectors showing early gains.

The energy space (+1.2%) has spiked into the lead with crude oil accompanying the advance. The energy component trades up 2.1% at $47.21/bbl. Elsewhere among cyclical sectors, financials (+0.4%) and technology (+0.4%) have enjoyed a solid start while the consumer discretionary sector (+0.1%) lags.

Treasuries have slid to lows, sending the 10-yr yield higher by five basis points to 1.76%.

The preliminary reading of the Michigan Sentiment Index for January (consensus 94.1) will be reported at 9:55 ET.

9:16 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.00. The stock market is on track for a lower open as futures on the S&P 500 trade three points below fair value after battling back from larger losses. Equities have endured a rough stretch with the S&P 500 registering five losses in a row. The benchmark index fell below its 100-day moving average (2,007) yesterday and that level could come into play once again today if the S&P 500 is able to find a measure of support.

To that effect, crude oil has climbed overnight, which is likely to boost the overall risk sentiment. The energy component trades higher by 1.1% at $46.84/bbl.

On the earnings front, Dow components Intel (INTC 36.00, -0.19) and Goldman Sachs (GS 175.82, -2.67) reported better-than expected earnings, but both are on track for opening losses. Intel is on track to open lower by 0.5% while Goldman Sachs has given up 1.5% in pre-market.

Elsewhere among financials, FXCM (FXCM 1.41, -11.21) has been pummeled to the tune of 88.8% after the company announced that yesterday's move in the Swiss franc resulted in about $225 million in negative equity balances.

On the economic front, the just released Industrial Production report pointed to a decrease of 0.1% in December, which is what the Briefing.com consensus expected. Separately, capacity utilization hit 79.7% while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 79.9%.

Treasuries hover in the red with the 10-yr yield up three basis points at 1.75%.

The Michigan Sentiment Index for January (consensus 94.1) will be reported at 9:55 ET.

8:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.80. The S&P 500 futures trade two points below fair value.

Markets pushed lower across most of Asia.

Economic data was limited:
Japan's Tertiary Industry Activity Index ticked up 0.2% month-over-month (expected 0.3%; previous -0.1%)
China's Foreign Direct Investment edged up 1.7% year-over-year
Singapore's trade surplus narrowed to SGD4.46 billion from SGD6.59 billion (expected SGD5.90 billion)

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Japan's Nikkei ended lower by 1.4%, but erased most of its early losses to reclaim key 16,800 support. Sony fell 4.6% amid concern the recent strength in the yen would hurt earnings.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 1.0%, pulling back from four-month highs. Gaming names were hit hard as Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China fell 4.5% and 3%, respectively.
China's Shanghai Composite added 1.2% to close at its best level since August 2009. Railcar maker CSR surged the limit, 10%, as many believe it has a leg up on securing a project in Mexico.
India's Sensex added 0.2% and hit a five-week high. Pharma was among the top performing sectors as Sun Pharmaceutical added 2.9% and Cipla rallied 1.5%.

Major European indices trade in the red with Spain's IBEX (-0.3%) showing the largest decline. Elsewhere, the Swiss Market Index has given up 4.3%. According to The Financial Times, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will not attend the Davos World Economic Forum, which will be held between January 21 and 24. The ECB will hold its next policy meeting on January 22.

In economic data:
Eurozone CPI slipped 0.1% month-over-month while the year-over-year reading contracted 0.2%. Both figures matched expectations. Also of note, Core CPI increased 0.7% year-over-year (expected 0.8%; previous 0.8%)
Germany's CPI was unchanged month-over-month
French Government Budget deficit widened to EUR90.80 billion from EUR84.70 billion
Spain's trade deficit narrowed to EUR1.55 billion from EUR2.24 billion
Swiss Retail Sales fell 1.2% year-over-year (expected 1.1%; previous 0.3%)

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In France, the CAC has given up 0.1%. Heavyweights Bouygues, Lafarge, and Vinci hold losses between 1.5% and 2.5%.
UK's FTSE is lower by 0.1%. Hargreaves Lansdown and Prudential trade lower by 1.9% and 1.4%, respectively. On the upside, energy names outperform. BP has jumped 3.3% and BG Group trades up 1.2%.
Germany's DAX trades lower by 0.2%. Financials Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank trade lower by 2.5% and 0.5%, respectively, while Volkswagen (+1.1%) and Daimler (+0.9%) outperform.
Spain's IBEX trades down 0.3% amid weakness in financials. Bankinter, Banco Popular, and Santander are down between 1.1% and 4.1%.

8:31 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -5.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -20.80. The S&P 500 futures trade six points below fair value.

Total CPI fell 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus -0.4%) in December while Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%). On a year-over-year basis, total CPI is up 0.8% and core CPI is up 1.6%.

7:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -7.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -27.50. U.S. equity futures trade lower amid mixed action overseas. The S&P 500 futures hover eight points below fair value after spending the entire night in negative territory.

Overnight, markets across Asia struggled, but European indices have had a better go of it so far. However, the Swiss Market Index has given up 4.2% to continue yesterday's weakness. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc is lower by about 3.5% against the dollar (0.8730).

On a separate note, crude oil is higher by 1.3% at $46.84/bbl after hitting an overnight high near $47.80/bbl.

December CPI will be released at 8:30 ET (Briefing.com consensus -0.4%) while Industrial Production (consensus -0.1%) and Capacity Utilization (expected 79.9%) will cross the wires at 9:15 ET. The Michigan Sentiment Index for January (consensus 94.1) will be reported at 9:55 ET.

Treasuries are little changed with the 10-yr yield at 1.72%.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

FXCM (FXCM 1.80, -10.83): -85.8% after the foreign exchange broker announced that yesterday's move in the Swiss franc likely put the company in breach of certain regulatory capital requirements.
Goldman Sachs (GS 177.25, -1.24): -0.7% despite beating earnings estimates.
Intel (INTC 35.71, -0.48): -1.3% despite beating bottom-line estimates and guiding in-line with analyst expectations.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mostly lower. Hong Kong's Hang Seng -1.0%, Japan's Nikkei -1.4%, and China's Shanghai Composite +1.2%
Economic data was limited:
Japan's Tertiary Industry Activity Index ticked up 0.2% month-over-month (expected 0.3%; previous -0.1%)
Singapore's trade surplus narrowed to SGD4.46 billion from SGD6.59 billion (expected SGD5.90 billion)
In news:
China's Shanghai Composite outperformed after the People's Bank of China announced stimulus funds in the amount of CNY50 billion will be used to support small companies and the agriculture industry.

Major European indices trade mixed. France's CAC +0.4%, Germany's DAX -0.1%, and UK's FTSE is flat. Elsewhere, Spain's IBEX +0.1% and Italy's MIB +1.0%
In economic data:
Eurozone CPI slipped 0.1% month-over-month while the year-over-year reading contracted 0.2%. Both figures matched expectations. Also of note, Core CPI increased 0.7% year-over-year (expected 0.8%; previous 0.8%)
Germany's CPI was unchanged month-over-month
French Government Budget deficit widened to EUR90.80 billion from EUR84.70 billion
Spain's trade deficit narrowed to EUR1.55 billion from EUR2.24 billion
Swiss Retail Sales fell 1.2% year-over-year (expected 1.1%; previous 0.3%)
Among news of note:
According to The Financial Times, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will not attend the Davos World Economic Forum, which will be held between January 21 and 24. The ECB will hold its next policy meeting on January 22.

6:21 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -30.00.

6:21 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...16,864.16...-244.50...-1.40%. Hang Seng...24,103.52...-247.40...-1.00%.

6:21 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6,478.02...-20.70...-0.30%. DAX...9,993.36...-38.70...-0.40%.

Dollar at 11-Year High Versus Euro on Franc Fallout

By Andrea Wong Jan 16, 2015 5:23 PM ET

The dollar rose to the strongest level in 11 years against the euro as the Swiss National Bank’s decision to scrap the franc’s cap steered investors into the world’s top reserve currency.

The euro posted its biggest weekly loss since July 2012 versus the yen as Spiegel magazine reported European Central Bank President Mario Draghi briefed German officials on a sovereign-bond-buying plan. The dollar snapped a five-day decline against Japan’s currency after data showed U.S. consumer confidence rose to highest since 2004. A gauge of foreign-exchange volatility climbed to the highest in more than a year. Brazil’s real led gains among major currencies.

“It’s just part of the dollar story -- the alternatives don’t look attractive,” Greg Anderson, Bank of Montreal’s global head of foreign-exchange strategy, said in a phone interview. “Yesterday cemented in everyone’s mind that the ECB’s going to be aggressive next week.”

The dollar, which represents 63 percent of all known international reserves, surged 0.6 percent to $1.1567 per euro at 5 p.m. in New York and touched $1.1460, the strongest level since November 2003. It gained 1.2 percent to 117.51 yen. The single currency rose 0.6 percent to 135.95 yen, narrowing its loss to 3.1 percent this week.

The franc dropped 1.9 percent to 99.41 centimes per euro after surging to a record 85.172 yesterday. Switzerland’s currency fell 2.3 percent to 85.87 centimes per dollar.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 major peers, climbed 0.2 percent to 1,139.27 to trim its first weekly loss in more than a month to less than 0.2 percent. It closed at 1,147.54 on Jan. 8, the highest in data going back to 2004.

Volatility Soars

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s index of global currency volatility rose to as much as 11.68, the most since June 2013, up from last year’s low of 5.28 percent.

Brazil’s real gained on speculation the ECB will announce a stimulus program next week that will support demand for higher-yielding assets from emerging markets. The real advanced 0.8 percent to 2.6223 per dollar and gained 0.4 percent this week.

Peru’s sol touched a five-year low after the central bank unexpectedly cut borrowing costs for a third time in seven months as lower fuel prices give policy makers room to boost flagging growth. The sol was at 3.0145 per U.S. dollar after falling to 3 yesterday for the first time since 2009.

The naira gained after Nigeria’s central bank sold dollars to stem the currency’s drop to a record low after JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the debt of Africa’s biggest economy may be cut from its local-currency emerging-market indexes. The naira added 0.4 percent to 185.95 per dollar.

‘Euro Lower’

The SNB surprised markets at its policy meeting yesterday by abandoning its three-year-old cap of 1.20 per euro on the franc. Policy makers also reduced the interest rate on sight deposits, deepening a cut announced less than a month ago.

“One of the reactions from the SNB decision was they knew the ECB will be embarking on monetary-policy expansion,” Brian Daingerfield, a currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc’s RBS Securities unit in Stamford, Connecticut, said by phone. “The overarching fundamentals of the euro story remain in place to push the euro lower.”

The 19-nation currency posted a fifth weekly decline against the dollar before the region’s policy makers meet on Jan. 22 to discuss introducing new stimulus, including quantitative easing.

Draghi’s Plan

The plan that Draghi presented to German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble described quantitative-easing plans under which national central banks would buy bonds issued by their own country, Spiegel said in an article published today, without saying where it got the information.

Greece will be excluded from the program because its bonds don’t fulfill the necessary quality criteria, the magazine said. An ECB spokesman declined to comment on the design of any QE program.

Bloomberg’s dollar index extended gains after the University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 98.2, the highest since January 2004, from a final reading of 93.6 in December. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 70 economists projected an increase to 94.1.

The dollar has climbed 2 percent in the past month, the best performance among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes after the franc’s 15 percent jump. The yen gained 0.9 percent while the euro tumbled 6.5 percent to lead declines.

To contact the reporter on this story: Andrea Wong in New York at awong268@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net Kenneth Pringle, Paul Cox

U.S. Stocks, Dollar Rise as Oil Rebounds; Treasuries Fall

By Stephen Kirkland and Jeremy Herron Jan 16, 2015 4:05 PM ET

U.S. stocks climbed, extending gains in the final hour of trading to end a five-day slide, as energy shares rallied with the price of oil, overshadowing the effects from Switzerland abandoning the franc’s cap. The dollar rose with copper and gold.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) jumped 1.3 percent at 4 p.m. in New York, trimming a third weekly decline to 1.3 percent. Energy shares led gains as oil surged 5.3 percent. Goldman Sachs (GS) Group Inc. dropped 0.7 percent after reporting the lowest annual trading revenue since 2005. The franc weakened after soaring 23 percent yesterday and the Swiss Market Index (SMI) retreated 6 percent. Ten-year Treasury rates added 12 basis points to 1.83 percent. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3 percent and the euro slid to an 11-year low.

Consumer confidence jumped in January to the highest level in 11 years and the cost of living declined in December by the most in six years, fueling speculation the Federal Reserve will be in no hurry to raise rates. The International Energy Agency lowered forecasts for supplies from outside OPEC and said prices could recover, helping crude reverse an eighth weekly slide. The Swiss National Bank’s move increased speculation that the European Central Bank will unveil a broader stimulus next week.

Europe’s QE Quandary

“We’ve traded with oil tick for tick all week, and until we get news from the ECB next week, that’s going to continue,” Matt Maley, an equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co LLC in Newton, Massachusetts, said in a phone interview. “You also have more fears that it’s going to be very difficult for the economy to grow fast enough for the Fed to raise rates sooner rather than later. Expectations for a rate hike are starting to get pushed out.”

OPEC Outlook

West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery increased 5.3 percent to $48.69 a barrel in New York. The rally gave the U.S. benchmark crude grade its first weekly gain since November, after the price dropped to the lowest level since April 2009 on Jan. 13.

Non-OPEC oil producers will boost output this year at a slower rate than previously forecast, aiding a recovery in crude prices, the IEA said in its monthly market report.

“The IEA report is the first serious evidence that low oil prices are rebalancing the market,” Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts, said by phone. “The price has probably gone down enough. We’ve rebounded a few times as prices have dropped and it will be interesting to see how things work out this time.”

Consumer Confidence

Oil’s slide of more than 50 percent since June is showing in U.S. economic data from inflation to consumer confidence. Trips to the pump that are costing less and less and job gains that have accelerated are helping Americans feel more optimistic about the economic recovery, now in its sixth year.

The University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 98.2, the highest since January 2004, from a final reading of 93.6 in December.

At the same time, the biggest drop in clothing costs since 1998 combined with falling air fares and cheaper new and used cars signal the deceleration in inflation is spreading beyond energy as Japan and Europe are in or near a recession and some emerging markets cool.

The decline in the cost of living fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will remain patient in its plans to raise interest rates, as sustained broad-based price declines test Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s view that the drop in fuel won’t reverberate through the economy.

Goldman, SNB

Goldman Sachs fell after reporting a 7.1 percent drop in profit as revenue from fixed-income trading declined for the fifth time in six quarters.

The SNB decided to drop its currency cap, set in September 2011 to shield the economy from the euro area’s debt crisis, because it was no longer “sustainable,” central bank President Thomas Jordan said. The move is preempting possible pressure on the franc should the ECB announce a government-bond purchase program, or quantitative easing, at its Jan. 22 meeting.

“The SNB caught almost everyone by surprise and it’s creating unease and anxiety in markets,” Nader Naeimi, who helps manage about $125 billion as Sydney-based head of dynamic asset allocation at AMP Capital Investors, said by phone. “The strategy is capital preservation for now.”

The euro headed for its biggest weekly loss versus the yen since July 2012 as a report confirmed consumer prices in the region also fell in December, strengthening the case for the European Central Bank to buy government bonds.

Europe’s shared currency fell 0.5 percent to $1.1573 and touched $1.1460, the weakest level since November 2003. The euro rose 0.7 percent to 136.07 yen, having lost 3 percent this week. The franc dropped 0.5 percent to 99.76 centimes per euro after surging to a record 85.172 yesterday. Switzerland’s currency fell 2.6 percent to 86.07 centimes per dollar.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 major peers, trimmed its first weekly loss in more than a month to 0.2 percent.

Treasuries fell for the first time in six days on speculation the declines that pushed yields to record lows were overdone as the U.S. outperforms other major economies.

Europe Bonds

Italy’s 10-year yield reached a record-low 1.64 percent. Switzerland’s 10-year yield turned negative for the first time, reaching minus 0.031 percent. A negative yield means investors buying the securities would receive less back than they paid if they held them to maturity.

Greece’s three-year note yield jumped 89 basis points to 11.07 percent. Alpha Bank AE submitted a request to the Bank of Greece for cash from the Emergency Liquidity Assistance system.

ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said in interview with the Irish Times that there is no decision on quantitative easing yet though “the only thing I can say is that, for it to be efficient, it would have to be big.”

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 1.1 percent to the highest since 2008, as the SNB move fueled speculation the ECB will act.

A gauge of energy shares posted the best performance among 19 industry groups in the European benchmark. Total SA and BG Group Plc added more than 3 percent. BP Plc climbed 5.3 percent after a U.S. judge ruled it had dumped less oil into the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 than the government had calculated, decreasing the maximum fine the company faces.

ECB Speculation

“We’ve had so much to digest so early in the year, it’s very difficult to pinpoint a direction in the markets,” said Teis Knuthsen, chief investment officer at Saxo Bank A/S’s private-banking unit in Hellerup, Denmark. “It will take a long time to absorb all this before we can step back and really focus on fundamentals. There’s definitely speculation that the SNB did this in advance of expectations for the ECB to announce QE next week.”

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0. percent, taking its loss this week to 0.3 percent, ending four weeks of gains. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) rallied 1.2 percent. The gauge has advanced 2.8 percent this week, a 10th week of gains that’s the longest winning streak since May 2007, after credit growth expanded and speculation grew the central bank will cut reserve-requirement ratios. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slipped 0.9 percent, leaving it little changed for the week.

To contact the reporters on this story: Stephen Kirkland in London at skirkland@bloomberg.net; Jeremy Herron in New York at jherron8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeff Sutherland at jsutherlan13@bloomberg.net Michael P. Regan

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader @ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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