TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $720.00 dollars or +7.20 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $330.00 dollars or +3.30 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $1,120.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips in ##TheStrategyLab chat room involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=137&t=1970


Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Price Action Analysis via Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

All WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1 - 12 are included in the purchase of the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=252&t=2585

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

4:15 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] It was a full day of trading on Monday, yet the stock market acted like it was still on vacation. Volume was light and the major indices held to narrow trading ranges that bracketed the unchanged line for much of the session.

The S&P 500 managed to eke out its seventh gain in the last eight sessions. In doing so, it established another record closing high that pulled it ever closer to the 2100 level.

Most of today's action happened away from the U.S. stock market. To that end, European bourses had a roller-coaster session, riding a wave of Greek politics that included a third failed vote for the prime minister's preferred presidential candidate, the subsequent announcement that parliament would be dissolved, and news that snap elections would be held on January 25.

The Greek stock market ended Monday down 3.9%, yet that was a vast improvement over the 10% decline it suffered at one point following the failed vote. The turmoil was attributed to a growing sense of angst that the anti-austerity Syriza party will win the snap elections, cancel the austerity measures implemented as a condition for the country's bailout program, and potentially lead a Greece exit from the eurozone.

That uncertainty, along with the renewed weakness in the Russian ruble against the dollar, prompted some safe-haven positioning in major sovereign bond markets. Arguably, it also contributed to a 5.4% jump in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 15.28, +0.78) as market participants aimed to hedge portfolios for near-term volatility risk.

The German bund yield fell five basis points to 0.54% while the 10-yr Treasury note yield slipped four basis points to 2.21%.

A reversal in oil prices also provided some support for longer-dated Treasuries. Earlier this morning, WTI crude futures bumped up to $55.60/bbl amid concerns about the unrest in Libya. They soon fell out of favor, though, and traded below $53.00/bbl, marking a 5 year low, before settling down 2.1% at $53.61/bbl.

The gyration in oil prices led to some commensurate gyration in the S&P 500 energy sector, but the latter ultimately found its footing and advanced 0.3% on some bottom-fishing interest. The big mover in the stock market, though, was the rate-sensitive utilities sector. It jumped 1.1%, leaving it up 16.8% for the quarter and 29.3% for the year.

That certainly helped the S&P 500 move ahead, yet it was the outperformance of the consumer discretionary (+0.7%), financial (+0.4%), energy (+0.3%), and health care (+0.3%) sectors that made the winning difference.

Gains in those heavily-weighted sectors helped offset the relative weakness of the information technology (-0.5%) and consumer staples (-0.4%) sectors.

Within the Dow Jones Industrial Average, IBM (IBM 160.52, -1.82) and Visa (V 265.36, -1.26) were the two biggest losers while Home Depot (104.55, +0.80) and Goldman Sachs (GS 196.13, +0.68) were the two biggest gainers.

There wasn't any economic data out of the U.S. on Monday. Tuesday's lineup will feature the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October (Briefing.com consensus +4.4%) and the Consumer Confidence report for December (Briefing.com consensus 94.4).

A total of 538 mln shares changed hands at the NYSE, which was far below the 50-day simple moving average of 802 million shares.

Nasdaq Composite +15.1% YTD
S&P 500 +13.1% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +8.8% YTD
Russell 2000 +4.8% YTD

3:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Oil prices sold off in afternoon trade, falling to a 5 1/2-year low
Feb crude ended the day $1.06 lower at $53.68/barrel
Natural gas futures rallied today, rising as high as $3.21/MMBtu, well off its LoD of $3.05/MMBtu
Precious metals were weak today, but activity was not driven by the dollar index
Feb gold lost $13.50 today to $1181.80/oz, while Mar silver fell $0.38 to $15.78/oz
Mar copper lost $0.01 to $2.82/lb

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The market's demeanor has not changed heading into the final hour of what has been a pretty uneventful session for stocks to this point.

Not the case for crude futures. They were quite active today, hitting $55.60/bbl at their early-morning highs and scraping $$52.92/bbl at their afternoon lows. WTI crude futures settled down $1.12, or 2.1%, at $53.61/bbl.

Notably, the energy sector gyrated with the movement in oil prices, yet managed to avoid getting stuck in a negative rut. Currently, the S&P 500 energy sector (+0.4%) is among the best-performing groups today, aided by some bottom-fishing interest that is often seen at year end on the premise that next year's upside potential for big losers in the current year outweighs the downside risk.

NYSE volume is light today, yet the 317 million shares traded so far at the NYSE is comfortably ahead of the 246 million shares traded at this point on Friday, which was the lowest volume day of the year for a full trading session.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] It's a mixed market at the moment with neither bears nor bulls able to gain much of an advantage. The tug of war is reflected in the disparate performances of the financial sector (+0.4%), which is outperforming, and the information technology sector (-0.4%), which is underperforming.

Those two sectors are the most heavily-weighted in the S&P 500, so the balance of things that has the S&P 500 slightly higher has fallen largely on the health care (+0.3%), consumer discretionary (+0.6%), and energy (+0.4%) sectors.

The Russell 2000, which has been a barnstormer in the fourth quarter (+10.5%), is up 0.1% as small-cap issues continue to benefit from year-end activity that has often left the Russell 2000 outperforming the Russell 1000 in the latter half of December and into January.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq has turned negative in the last thirty minutes amid a pickup in selling interest among the large-cap issues.

The New Years Holiday creates another condensed week of economic news.

Highlights for the week focus on economic surveys including sentiment in the U.S. Globally, the only bit of economic information is the final results from manufacturing PMIs.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 88.7 in November from 94.1 in October. The Briefing.com Consensus expects the index rebounded to 94.4 in December.

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major U.S. indices all sit just above break even as volume continues to be light.

In recent trade, crude oil futures set new 5 1/2 year lows ($53.40/bbl, -$1.33) after briefly dropping under $53/bbl. While crude futures were higher earlier in today's session, heavy selling entered the market and pushed it under the previous yearly low. In related news, Baker Hughes (BHI 58.69, +0.36) reported another reduction in its U.S. rig count. This marks the third consecutive week that BHI reduced its total U.S. rig count. Despite the reversal in crude, the S&P energy sector (+0.2%) is trading in-line with the broader market.

Utilities (+1.1%) remain the top performing S&P sector on the day, while telecom services (-0.4%) still sports the largest decline.

1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Today's stock market hasn't been accented with a lot of conviction. The major indices have seen both sides of unchanged since the opening bell, yet haven't ventured very far above or below their starting points in what has been another low-volume affair.

The market's "stickiness" can arguably be attributed to offsetting beliefs that it is due for a pullback after a 5.9% gain for the S&P 500 over the last seven sessions and that performance chasing into year end will keep it on an upward trend.

Torn between those two schools of thought, the major indices have been confined to narrow trading ranges. Other limiting factors have included:

A lack of market-moving corporate news flow
The inability of WTI crude futures (-1.9% at $53.68/bbl) to hold earlier gains that pushed oil up to $55.60/bbl
The energy sector, up 1.0% earlier, is now down 0.1%
Political uncertainty in Greece following a third failed vote to elect the prime minister's preferred presidential candidate; and
Low participation

The Greek headlines captured the market's attention as concerns about the fate of Greece's bailout program were escalated with the news that snap elections will be held on January 25 and that the anti-austerity Syriza party is thought to have a good chance of winning those elections.

That uncertainty, coupled with the renewed weakness in the Russian ruble against the dollar, has fed some safe-haven posturing in major sovereign bond markets. The yield on the German bund fell five basis points to 0.54%; meanwhile, the yield on the 10-yr Treasury note has dropped three basis points to 2.22%.

The drop in long-term rates has continued to feed buying interest in the utilities sector, which is up 1.1% today and up a stunning 7.4% for the month and 29.3% for the year.

It hasn't been the utilities sector, though, that has been the difference maker for the S&P 500. Its 3.1% weighting doesn't give it that kind of pull. The difference makers have been the financial (+0.5%), consumer discretionary (+0.5%) and health care sectors (+0.2%), which comprise 42.6% of the S&P 500's market capitalization combined.

Their relative strength has helped the S&P 500 maintain a small gain.

Elsewhere, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 15.60, +1.10) has also exhibited relative strength. It is currently up 7.6% as market participants have looked to hedge portfolios against possible downside action.

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] It's official now: WTI crude futures have turned negative (-1.6% at $53.83/bbl), coughing up all of the earlier gains and then some. The reversal of fortune in the energy pit has weighed on the energy sector (+0.2%), which was up as much as 1.0% shortly after the start of trading.

Most sectors, in fact, have inched back from higher levels in the past half hour. The utilities sector (+1.0%), though, has held pretty steady and continues to sit atop the best-performing sectors list.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is hugging the flatline today, but not because of its energy components. ExxonMobil (XOM 93.43, +0.22) and Chevron (CVX 113.73, +0.48) have continued to keep their head above water.

The biggest point-loser in the Dow has been IBM (IBM 160.44, -1.90).

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 keeps inching its way higher today and, coincidentally, so does the Treasury market. The 10-yr note is at its highs for the session, up 15 ticks, which has lowered its yield five basis points to 2.20%.

The uncertainty surrounding the political atmosphere in Greece, and the fate of its bailout program, has prompted some safe-haven buying in the Treasury market. Additionally, the renewed weakness of the Russian ruble against the dollar has also stirred some buying interest as angst is beginning to build that Russia's defense of the ruble won't be successful.

On a related note, WTI crude futures have coughed up almost all of the gains from earlier. After pushing $55.60/bbl earlier this morning, WTI crude futures are now up just 0.1% at $54.81/bbl.

The pullback in crude futures has clipped some of the early strength seen in the energy sector (+0.5%).

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market has had a big run in a short amount of time. Entering today, the S&P 500 was up 5.9% over the last seven trading sessions, so it is understandable if participants expect some selling interest to take root.

That expectation, however, appears pitted against the other idea that performance chasing into year end could very well keep the market from succumbing to selling interest.

Fittingly, the indices have been stuck in narrow trading ranges today that have kept them closely bounded to either side of the unchanged mark.

Notwithstanding the resilience to selling efforts thus far, it's worth noting that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 15.35, +0.85) has jumped 5.9% today and that the Treasury market has pushed higher along with stocks. Those moves, and the outperformance of the utilities sector (+0.9%), suggest there is some defensive posturing taking place in what has been mostly a risk-on market since the FOMC told the world on December 17 that it will be patient in raising the fed funds rate.

11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major indices continue to float above unchanged readings, supported by leadership from the financial (+0.6%, energy (+0.7%), and consumer discretionary (+0.7%) sectors.

The utilities sector (+0.8%), which is off its highs, is still the biggest percentage gainer on the day. Its small 3.1% weighting in the S&P 500, though, means it doesn't have a lot of pull in moving the broader market -- unlike the financial and consumer discretionary sectors, for instance, which account for 28.3% of the S&P 500 market capitalization combined.

In any event, the strength of the aforementioned groups has helped mitigate some of the relative weakness in the information technology (-0.2%) and consumer staples (-0.4%) sectors.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Energy futures are trading higher this morning on Libya fire/weather outlook, while precious metals are selling off.
Feb WTI crude oil futures have been trading higher all day so far and rose as high as $55.67/barrel overnight on reports of a fire at oil storage terminals in Libya, which is disrupting oil output there.
Crude tested that same level four hours later, around 7am EST, and is currently trading +0.7% at $55.13/barrel
Natural gas futures are trading nicely higher as well as current weather outlooks provide a more bullish picture, at least for now. Feb natural gas is trading 2.6% higher in current action at $3.11/MMBtu
Gold and silver weren't doing that much this morning, but lost steam in recent action. Both precious metals began selling off in the last 30 minutes and fell to new lows for the day.
Feb gold is now -0.8% at $1185.20/oz, while Mar silver is -1.4% at $15.92/oz.
The dollar index, meanwhile, is not the catalyst to this sell-off and is currently sitting flat.

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Some familiar patterns have emerged in the early-going: oil prices are fading from earlier strength (+0.7% at $55.15/bbl); the opening dip has been bought; and the financial (+0.6%) and utilities (+1.1%) sectors are exhibiting relative strength.

The major indices are only showing small gains; nonetheless, those gains are notable considering how far the market has run in such a short time.

Everyone is watching to see if the S&P 500 can tag the 2100 level before year end. If the financial and energy (+0.8%) sectors continue to outperform, it has a decent chance of doing it.

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major indices followed suit with the futures indication and opened modestly lower, but started to bounce back in familiar fashion.

The energy sector (+0.3%) has provided some early support, although it is the utilities sector (+1.2%) that leads all comers at this juncture. With today's opening move, the utilities sector is up 7.5% for the month, outpacing all other sectors by a huge margin. The next best-performing sector is the financials sector, which is up 3.0% for the month.

The drop in long-term rates this morning has drawn buyers to the high-yielding utilities sector.

9:16 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.50. The S&P futures are off their lows of the morning (which weren't all that low) but continue to point to a modestly lower start for the cash market.

Most of the action at the moment is occurring away from the stock market.

The energy complex is trading higher in the commodities market, most sovereign bond markets in Europe have seen benchmark yields drop today (Greece, Italy, and Spain are notable exceptions), and the U.S. Treasury market has also seen yields come down by at least three basis points from the front of the curve to the back of the curve.

8:57 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.30. S&P 500 futures trade six points below fair value.

Markets gained across most of Asia. Over the weekend, Japan's government announced a JPY3.5 trln stimulus package aimed at igniting its stagnant economy.

Economic data was limited:
Hong Kong's trade deficit widened to HKD52.16 bln (HKD49.8 bln previous).

-----

Japan's Nikkei (-0.5%) was unable to put in its best close in more than seven years as fears of an Ebola case in the country weighed.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+1.8%) rallied to its best level in three weeks.
China's Shanghai Composite (+0.3%) ticked to its best level since January 2010.

In Europe, the major bourses are under pressure after the third round of voting failed to name a president in Greece. Early elections will be held on January 25.

There was no economic data.

-----

Greece's ASE trades lower by 5.7% following word of early elections. The index saw early losses of 11%.
The rest of the periphery is weak with Italy's MIB down 2.5% and Spain's IBEX in the red by 2.3%.
Germany's DAX holds a notable loss of 0.8%. Financials are weak as Commerzbank is off 2.1% and Deutsche Bank is lower by 1.6%.
The UK's FTSE trades down 0.2%, outperforming the rest of the region. Miners are strong with Fresnillo and Randgold Resources up 3.4% and 2.9%, respectively.

8:28 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.80. The cash market remains on track for a lower start. Not much buying interest at the moment nor is there any stirring corporate news of note to get the broader market worked up one way or the other.

International affairs, and namely Greece's political issues, have acted as an early deterrent. With a 5.9% gain for the S&P 500 over the last seven trading sessions, though, an expectation that the market is due to take a breather is perhaps also holding back buying interest.

There isn't any economic data out of the U.S. today.

7:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.30. The S&P 500 futures are down nearly four points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. That indication is setting the stage for a slightly lower start for the cash market, which closed Friday at yet another record high. There isn't much headline action domestically in the early going, yet Greece has provided some sparks after another failed presidential vote opened the door for a snap election and triggered concerns about the fate of its bailout program.

WTI crude futures are up 1.2% at $55.40/bbl, benefiting from the ongoing unrest in Libya.

Treasuries are gaining some ground on the international developments. The 10-yr note yield has dropped four basis points to 2.21%.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Twitter (TWTR 37.42, -0.18): off 0.5% in pre-market action following news of a login bug
Manitowoc (MTW 23.00, +2.08): up 9.9% in pre-market after Carl Icahn disclosed a 7.7% stake in a 13D filing and said he intends to hold discussions related to separating the Crane and Foodservice segments into two separate companies

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets were mixed. Japan's Nikkei -0.5%; Hong Kong's Hang Seng +1.8%; and China's Shanghai Composite +0.3%
In economic data:
Hong Kong's Imports rose 2.4% month-over-month in November (previous 5.6%) while exports increased 0.4% (previous 2.7%)
South Korea's Manufacturing BSI Index rose to 81 from 80
In news:
Japanese government approved a $29 billion stimulus plan with designs on boosting private consumption and aiding small businesses
Reports of possible Ebola case in Tokyo
Search continues for missing AirAsia flight

Major European indices are mostly lower. Germany's DAX Index -0.7%; France's CAC 40 -0.4%; and UK's FTSE 100 +0.2
Economic data was limited:
Italy's Consumer Confidence decreased to 99.7 from 100.2 (expected 100.2)
Among news of note:
Greek Prime Minister Samaras said he will ask for dissolution of parliament after politicians failed for the third time to elect his preferred presidential candidate, Stavros Dimas. Snap election slated for January 25. Greek stock market -6.9% after being down more than 10% earlier.
Roche says FDA has provided Emergency Use Authorization for its LightMix Ebola Zaire rRT-PCR test

6:36 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -4.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.50.

6:36 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...17729.84...-89.10...-0.50%. Hang Seng...23773.18...+423.80...+1.80%.

6:36 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6627.78...+19.30...+0.30%. DAX...9867.48...-54.60...-0.60%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader @ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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