TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $6,620.00 dollars or +66.20 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $6,620.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=135&t=1911


Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=248&t=2530

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

4:15 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market endured another rough session, but the major averages managed to climb off their worst levels of the day ahead of the close. The S&P 500 lost 0.8% while the Russell 2000 rose 1.0% after showing relative strength throughout the session.

Equity indices stumbled out of the gate to continue the weakness that started in the futures market overnight. Also weighing on sentiment was a trio of disappointing economic reports with retail sales, PPI, and the Empire Manufacturing Index all missing expectations. The data was met with dollar weakness while Treasuries soared.

The dollar retreated against other major currencies with the euro (+170 pips), yen (+120 pips) and Swiss franc (+130 pips) benefitting from the greenback weakness. For its part, the Dollar Index (84.97, -0.85) lost 1.0%.

Meanwhile, the 10-yr note was up more than two points at its best level of the day with the benchmark yield down 34 basis points. That represented the sharpest move since the $1 trillion QE program was unveiled in March 2009. The benchmark yield recovered the bulk of its decline into the close, ending lower by five basis points at 2.15%.

Treasuries may have also received a boost from comments made by The Wall Street Journal's Jon Hilsenrath, who said the recent drop in commodity prices gives the fed more room to delay its first rate hike. To that point, the fed funds futures market has pushed out the probability of the first hike from July 2015 to the end of 2015.

Interestingly, the stock market all but ignored the report, leading to speculation that equity investors may be starting to question the power of the Fed and other central banks after years of asset purchases and rate cuts that have been followed by subpar growth and disinflationary pressures.

Eight sectors ended in the red with financials (-2.0%) posting the largest loss. Bank of America (BAC 15.76, -0.76) reported better than expected earnings, but the report could not stop the major sector component from settling lower by 4.6%.

Elsewhere among cyclical sectors, the top-weighted group-technology-ended just ahead of the S&P 500. Chipmakers displayed relative strength with the PHLX Semiconductor Index climbing 0.5%. That advance took place despite a 2.7% decline in the shares of Intel (INTC 31.28, -0.87) after the industry giant reported a one-cent beat that was greeted with a Morgan Stanley downgrade to 'Underweight' from 'Equal-Weight.'

Also of note, the energy sector (+0.4%) was able to stage an intraday rebound while crude oil remained volatile. The energy component was down near 2.0% this morning, but ended the pit session with a ten-cent loss at $81.74/bbl. It is worth mentioning that the sector's outperformance followed heavy selling earlier in the month. The energy sector narrowed its October loss to 10.5%.

Similarly, the Dow Jones Transportation Average (+0.2%) rebounded to push this week's gain to 0.6%. The strength helped the industrial sector (-0.2%) end little changed.

Also of note, the utilities sector (-1.3%), which had shown relative strength earlier in the week, finished today's session among the laggards. Meanwhile, another countercyclical group-consumer staples (-1.2%)-was pressured by Wal-Mart (WMT 75.20, -2.78), which fell 3.6% after lowering its fiscal-year 2015 guidance to reflect expected sales growth of 2-3% (3-5% previous).

Today's wild ride invited above average participation with more than 1.1 billion shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Investors showed strong demand for volatility protection with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 25.35, +2.56) spiking to its highest level since November 2011 before pulling back.

Economic data included Retail Sales, PPI, Empire Manufacturing, Business Inventories, and the MBA Mortgage Index:

Retail sales declined 0.3% in September following an unrevised 0.6% gain in August, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a downtick of 0.2%.
Motor vehicle sales declined 0.8% after increasing 1.9% in July, which was in-line with the decline in per unit sales reported by the motor vehicle manufacturers
Excluding autos, retail sales declined 0.2% in September after increasing an unrevised 0.3% in August, while the consensus expected an increase of 0.3%
Producer prices fell 0.1% in September after reporting no change in August, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.1%
As expected, energy prices fell 0.7% in September, which was the third consecutive monthly decline
Food prices fell for the second consecutive month and the fourth time in the last five months, dropping 0.7% after falling 0.5% in August
Excluding food and energy, core PPI was flat after increasing 0.1% in August, while the consensus expected an increase of 0.1%
The Empire Manufacturing Survey for October fell to 6.2 from 27.5, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a downtick to 20.4
Business inventories increased 0.2% in August after increasing an unrevised 0.4% in July, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.4%
The weekly MBA Mortgage Index rose 5.6% to follow last week's 3.8% increase

Tomorrow, weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 290K) will be released at 8:30 ET, while September Industrial Production (consensus 0.4%) and Capacity Utilization (expected 79.0%) will both be reported at 9:15 ET. Also of note, the Philadelphia Fed Survey for October (consensus 19.8) and the October NAHB Housing Market Index (expected 59) will both be reported at 10:00 ET.

Nasdaq Composite +0.9% YTD
S&P 500 +0.8% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -2.6% YTD
Russell 2000 -7.8% YTD

3:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Crude oil prices recovered today following its morning sell-off.
After a morning sell-off, crude oil began to recover and spent some time today in positive territory.
At the end of today's session, Nov WTI closed 10 cents lower at $81.74/barrel
Nov natural gas fell 1.3% to $3.81/MMBtu.
Precious metals spiked sharply this morning, but slid lower in afternoon activity.
Gold and silver both held some gains however. Dec gold rose 0.8% to $1244.80/oz, Dec silver +0.2% at $17.44/oz
Copper created an ugly chart today. It was was in the red all day and fell 2.8% to $3.00/lb. In electronic trade, copper remains near that low.

2:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 1.6% with one hour remaining in today's session. Elsewhere, the Russell 2000 (-0.4%) remains ahead of the benchmark index, but it is worth noting that today's relative strength comes after the Russell saw significant weakness into the end of September. Despite today's outperformance, the small-cap index is down 9.2% since the start of the year versus a 0.1% decline for the S&P 500.

Elsewhere, Treasuries have continued inching lower, causing the 10-yr yield to narrow its loss to 11 basis points (2.09%).

Also of note, the CBOE Volatility Index (27.44, +4.65) has backed away from its high, but remains on course for its highest close since June 2012.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-2.2%) has climbed off its low, but remains more than 40 points below its flat line.

Shortly after our last update, the Federal Reserve released its Beige Book for October, which was similar to last month's report.

The Beige Book characterized economic growth across the twelve Fed Districts as 'modest to moderate.' Furthermore, most Fed Districts saw 'slight to moderate' growth in consumer spending. The New York region represented an outlier with general merchandise retailers reporting somewhat weaker sales.

With regard to manufacturing conditions, an increase in activity was reported by most Districts.

Finally, employment growth remained steady, but some employers reported difficulty finding qualified workers.

1:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain under heavy selling pressure that has sent the financial sector (-3.5%) into the red for the year. Including its current loss, the economically-sensitive sector is down 0.9% since the end of 2013, which puts the group right in-line with the S&P 500.

Elsewhere, the utilities sector (-2.5%) is the second weakest performer after showing relative strength earlier this month. The sector has narrowed its October loss to 0.4% and trimmed its 2014 gain to 11.1%. Outside of utilities, only three other groups remain positive on the year. Health care and consumer staples hold respective year-to-date gains of 7.4% and 2.6% while the technology sector is higher by 3.6% since the end of last year.

On a separate note, the Federal Reserve is set to release its Beige Book at the top of the hour and we will bring noteworthy highlights in our next update. The Beige Book is not known for having market-moving potential.

1:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major indices have been in a selling stupor today, unnerved by a batch of disappointing economic data and the continuing inclination to sell into strength.

Technical support levels have been taken out in the process, precipitating some programmatic selling that is exacerbating today's losses. Commensurate worries about margin calls and forced selling are also driving the push to reduce risk exposure.

The desire to reduce risk is plain to see with all equity sectors down at least 2.0%. That includes the utilities sector (-3.1%), which one might think would be faring better than it is with the tremendous drop in long-term Treasury yields that has featured a move below 2.00% by the 10-yr note.

The indices have hit new lows for the session in the last 30 minutes. At the same time, the CBOE Volatility Index (28.27, +5.48) pushed toward its highs for the session.

1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages are facing broad pressure at midday with the S&P 500 trading lower by 2.4%. Small caps have been able to resist some of the selling with the Russell 2000 down "only" 1.1%.

Equity indices plunged out of the gate to continue the weakness that began in the futures market overnight. Adding insult to injury was a trio of disappointing economic reports with retail sales, PPI, and the Empire Manufacturing Index all missing expectations. The data was met with dollar weakness while Treasuries soared.

At its highest point, the 10-yr note was up more than two points with its yield down nearly 34 basis points. The benchmark yield has narrowed its decline to 21 basis points and currently hovers near 1.98%, which represents the lowest level since May 2013. Treasuries may have also received a boost from comments made by The Wall Street Journal's Jon Hilsenrath, who said the recent drop in commodity prices gives the fed more room to delay its first rate hike. To that point, the fed funds futures market has pushed out the probability of the first hike from July 2015 to the end of 2015.

Interestingly, it appears the stock market has all but ignored the report, leading to speculation that equity investors may be losing faith in the power of the Fed and other central banks after years of asset purchases and rate cuts that are still being followed by subpar growth and disinflationary pressures.

Fittingly, the financial sector (-3.5%) is the weakest performer with Bank of America (BAC 15.47, -1.05) down 6.3% despite its bottom-line beat. Meanwhile, Citigroup (C 48.30, -3.17), which reported better than expected results yesterday, has erased that gain and slumped below its 200-day moving average (49.33).

Other influential sectors have not fared much better. Notably, the technology sector (-2.3%) trades largely in-line with the market while chipmakers trade a bit ahead of the S&P 500 with the PHLX Semiconductor Index down 1.7%. Last evening, Intel (INTC 30.56, -1.58) reported a one-cent beat, but the results have not stopped Morgan Stanley from downgrading the stock to 'Underweight' from 'Equal-Weight.' Shares of INTC have surrendered 4.9%.

Elsewhere, another heavily-weighted sector-health care (-1.5%)-trades a bit ahead of the market with help from biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 253.70, -1.57) is lower by 0.6% as it hovers just above its 200-day moving average (250.68).

Today's selling has caused participants to scramble for volatility protection, sending the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 28.42, +5.63) to its highest level since December 2011.

Economic data included Retail Sales, PPI, Empire Manufacturing, Business Inventories, and the MBA Mortgage Index:

Retail sales declined 0.3% in September following an unrevised 0.6% gain in August, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a downtick of 0.2%.
Motor vehicle sales declined 0.8% after increasing 1.9% in July, which was in-line with the decline in per unit sales reported by the motor vehicle manufacturers
Excluding autos, retail sales declined 0.2% in September after increasing an unrevised 0.3% in August, while the consensus expected an increase of 0.3%
Producer prices fell 0.1% in September after reporting no change in August, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.1%
As expected, energy prices fell 0.7% in September, which was the third consecutive monthly decline
Food prices fell for the second consecutive month and the fourth time in the last five months, dropping 0.7% after falling 0.5% in August
Excluding food and energy, core PPI was flat after increasing 0.1% in August, while the consensus expected an increase of 0.1%
The Empire Manufacturing Survey for October fell to 6.2 from 27.5, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a downtick to 20.4
Business inventories increased 0.2% in August after increasing an unrevised 0.4% in July, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.4%
The weekly MBA Mortgage Index rose 5.6% to follow last week's 3.8% increase

12:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Recent action saw the major averages return near their early lows. The Dow (-1.8%) is the weakest performing index while the Russell 2000 (-0.7%) has continued putting up a fight.

The recent downtick to lows has coincided with the 10-yr yield returning to the 2.00% mark. Similarly, safe-haven demand has caused the yen to inch back in the direction of its morning high. The dollar/yen pair fell from the 107.00 area at the start of the session, marking a low at 105.20 before a rebound put the pair near 106.30. The pair has backed away from that level and now trades near 106.00. Conversely, the Dollar Index (85.11, -0.70) remains under pressure.

Also of note, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 27.56, +4.77) has crept back towards its session high at 28.10%.

11:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have continued backtracking from their recent levels with the S&P 500 widening its loss to 1.6%. Although most sectors trade in the middle of their trading ranges, financials (-2.6%) have returned to their opening lows. Bank of America (BAC 15.71, -0.81), which reported a bottom-line beat this morning trades lower by 4.9% while other majors like Citigroup (C 49.21, -2.26) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 55.87, -2.12) hold respective losses of 4.4% and 3.7%. As for the sector, today's slide has caused it to surrender its 2014 gain. Similarly, the S&P 500 is now flat for the year.

At this time, energy (-0.8%) and materials (-1.1%) are the only cyclical sectors trading ahead of the broader market. The energy sector outperforms after pacing the losses in recent days while the materials space has little influence over the market due to its small share (3.5%) of the S&P 500.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-1.5%) has backed away from its rebound high, which also represents today's starting point for the benchmark index.

The market has been unable to extend its rebound as most top-weighted sectors continue showing losses larger than the broader market. To that point, technology (-1.6%), financials (-2.4%), consumer discretionary (-1.6%), and industrials (-1.6%) have been unable to catch up to the broader market so far. The four sectors are among the five largest groups by weight, while the third-largest sector-health care-outperforms with a loss of 1.1%. Biotechnology has factored into the modest outperformance with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 254.50, -0.77) down 0.3%.

The continued pressure in equities has led participants in the direction of volatility protection. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 26.68, +3.89) hovers near June 2012 levels after notching a high at 28.10%.

11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] After enduring a sharp drop at the start of the session, the S&P 500 (-1.2%) has cut its loss in half and has spent the past hour between 1850 and 1860. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 (-0.5%) trades ahead of the benchmark index after making a brief appearance in the green.

Similar to the Russell, other high-beta areas like biotechnology and chipmakers have put a dent in their opening losses, but they still have some work to do before turning positive. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 253.43, -1.84) is lower by 0.7% while the PHLX Semiconductor Index holds a loss of 0.5%.

At this juncture, six sectors trade a bit ahead of the broader market with energy (-1.1%) showing some relative strength. For its part, crude oil is higher by 0.1% at $81.89 after erasing its overnight loss.

Elsewhere, Treasuries have slipped from their highs into the middle of today's trading range. The 10-yr yield is lower by 14 basis points at 2.06%.

10:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Commodities are displaying some real volatility today.
Oil prices began the morning by extending recent losses
However, in morning trade, both WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil have erased those losses and are now in positive territory
Nov WTI crude oil is now +0.15 at $81.98/barrel, while Brent crude oil is +0.2% at $85.62/barrel
Natural gas is modestly lower, now -0.2% at $3.81/MMBtu
Gold and silver ran higher this morning, while the dollar index tanked.
Dec gold is now +0.3% at $1238.30/oz, Sept silver is +0.5% at $17.49/oz
Copper is -2.3% at $3.02/lb

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have ticked up from their opening lows, but they continue showing sharp losses. The S&P 500 (-0.8%) has cut its loss in half, but four sectors continue trading in-line or behind the market. For its part, the top-weighted sector-technology-is keeping pace with the benchmark index while the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+0.3%) has poked its head in the green.

Just released, Business Inventories rose 0.2% in August, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.4%. This followed the prior month's unrevised increase of 0.4%.

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] As expected, the major averages dove out of the gate with the Nasdaq Composite (-2.0%) pacing the early slide before the Dow (-2.1%) slipped behind the tech-heavy index. Chipmakers weigh after Intel (INTC 30.46, -1.69) reported its quarterly results.

The top-weighted microchip manufacturer reported a one-cent beat, but that was not enough to please investors. To that point, Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to 'Underweight' from 'Equal-Weight.' Intel trades lower by 5.2% while the broader PHLX Semiconductor Index is lower by 1.7%.

Biotechnology has also contributed to the Nasdaq's underperformance with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 249.87, -5.40) down 2.1%. For its part, the health care sector (-2.1%) trades in-line with the biotech ETF.

Treasuries have continued their sharp rally with the 10-yr yield dropping to 1.96% (-23 basis points).

9:15 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -18.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -38.80. The stock market is on track for a sharply lower open with the S&P 500 futures trading 18 points below fair value. Futures on the benchmark index held up relatively well overnight, but began showing weakness just ahead of the start of the European session. The selling continued after Europe opened for action and accelerated following today's disappointing data.

To that point, September Retail Sales (-0.3%; expected -0.2%), PPI (-0.1%; expected +0.1%), and October Empire Manufacturing Survey (6.2; expected 20.4) all missed expectations. The Retail Sales and PPI data weighed on the greenback, sending the Dollar Index lower by 0.6% (85.33, -0.49). Meanwhile, Treasuries rallied to highs, pressuring the 10-yr yield 15 basis points to 2.04%.

Also providing support to Treasuries were comments from Wall Street Journal's Jon Hilsenrath who said the recent drop in commodity prices has given the Fed additional breathing room to not rush into the first rate hike. On that note, crude oil (81.44, -0.43) is on the defensive once again, trading lower by 0.5%.

On the corporate front, Intel (INTC 30.97, -1.17) reported a one-cent beat and the company's CFO said they have not observed an industry slowdown. However, that did not stop Morgan Stanley from downgrading the stock to 'Underweight' from 'Equal-Weight.' Shares of INTC are indicated to open lower by 3.6%.

8:58 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -21.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -39.30. The S&P 500 futures trade 21 points below fair value.

Markets rallied across most of Asia. The Bank of Korea cut its key interest rate 25 basis points to 2.0%, as expected. Furthermore, the central bank lowered its 2014 GDP forecast to 3.5% from 3.8% and cut its CPI forecast to 1.4% from 1.9%.

In economic data:
China's CPI ticked up 0.5% month-over-month (expected 0.4%; previous 0.2%) while the year-over-year reading increased 1.6% (consensus 1.7%; last 2.0%). Also of note, PPI fell 1.8% year-over-year (expected -1.6%; prior -1.2%)
Japan's Industrial Production fell 1.9% month-over-month (expected -1.5%; prior -1.5%) while Capacity Utilization dropped 1.7% (last -0.8%)
Australia's Westpac Consumer Sentiment came in at 0.9% (previous -4.6%)
South Korea's Unemployment Rate held at 3.5%, as expected
Singapore's Retail Sales jumped 5.3% month-over-month (expected -0.9%; last -0.2%)

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Japan's Nikkei rose 0.9%, gaining for the first time in six days. Exporters saw relief as a result of the weaker yen with Sony adding 1.5% and Toshiba tacking on 0.8%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.4% to close on its 200-day moving average. Casino-linked names outperformed as Sands China rallied 2.2% and Galaxy Entertainment jumped 2.6%.
China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.6% to finish near 20-month highs. Airlines were buoyed by a let up in oil prices with Air China surging just shy of the 10% daily limit.
India's Sensex was closed.


Major European indices trade lower across the board with Italy's MIB (-3.0%) turning negative for the year. The European Court of Justice said it will announce its position on the European Central Bank's Outright Monetary Transactions in the middle of January. Elsewhere, Eurozone authorities have informed French officials that their budget does not meet EU criteria, but indications from France suggest no plans are being made for revising the budget.

Participants received several data points:
Germany's CPI was unchanged month-over-month while the year-over-year reading increased 0.8%. Both figures matched expectations
Great Britain's Claimant Count declined 18,600 (expected -35,000; previous -33,200), lowering the Unemployment Rate to 6.0% from 6.2% (expected 6.1%). Separately, Average Earnings Index + Bonus rose 0.7%, as expected
Spain's Current Account surplus expanded to EUR1.40 billion from EUR1.20 billion (expected deficit of EUR300 million)
Swiss ZEW Expectations fell to -30.7 from -7.7 (forecast -12.0)

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Great Britain's FTSE is lower by 1.6% with Shire showing the largest decline. The drugmaker has tumbled 26.2% after AbbVie said it will reconsider its merger proposal. Peers AstraZeneca and GlaxoSmithKline also lag with respective losses of 3.1% and 1.7%. Royal Mail outperforms with a gain of 3.2%.
Germany's DAX has given up 1.9%. Commerzbank and Volkswagen are the two main laggards with respective losses of 3.1% and 2.8%. Beiersdorf has held up well and trades higher by 0.9%.
France's CAC trades down 2.2% with growth-sensitive names pacing the decline. ArcelorMittal, Valeo, and Vinci are down between 3.2% and 4.0%. Danone is the lone advancer, up 2.8%, after reporting upbeat results.
In Italy, the MIB has surrendered 3.0% amid significant weakness in financials. BMPS, Banco Popolare, Intesa Sanpaolo, and Unicredit are down between 3.4% and 6.3%.
Also of note, the FTSE Greece index has surrendered 10.2% amid broad liquidation that has sent the index to July 2013 levels

8:33 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -14.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -21.50. The S&P 500 futures trade 15 points below fair value.

September retail sales fell 0.3% while the Briefing.com consensus expected a downtick of 0.2%. The prior month's reading was left unrevised at 0.6%. Excluding autos, retail sales ticked down 0.2%, while the consensus expected an increase of 0.3%.

Separately, September producer prices slipped 0.1% while the Briefing.com consensus called for an uptick of 0.1%. Core producer prices were unchanged while the consensus expected an uptick of 0.1%.

Also of note, the Empire Manufacturing Survey for October registered a reading of 6.2, which was below the prior month's reading of 27.5. It was also below the Briefing.com consensus estimate, which was pegged at 20.4.

8:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -13.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -21.30. U.S. equity futures trade near their pre-market lows amid cautious action overseas. The S&P 500 futures hover 13 points below fair value after making a brief appearance in the green ahead of the start of the European session. However, futures returned into the red shortly thereafter and fell to new lows during the past hour.

Market participants did not receive any news ahead of the drop, but the move coincided with a surge in Treasuries. The 10-yr jumped to a session high, sending the benchmark yield lower by four basis points to 2.15%. Safe-haven demand was also visible in the yen, which strengthened, pressuring the dollar/yen pair below the 107.00 level (-30 pips).

The Dollar Index (85.77, -0.05) holds a slim loss, but that has done little to provide support to crude oil, which is lower by 0.8% at $81.21/bbl.

The weekly MBA Mortgage Index rose 5.6% to follow last week's 3.8% increase.

More data remains on the schedule with the Retail Sales report for September (Briefing.com consensus -0.2%), September PPI (consensus 0.1%), and October Empire Manufacturing (expected 20.4) set to be released at 8:30 ET. Also of note, the Business Inventories report for August (consensus 0.4%) and the Fed's Beige Book for October will cross the wires at 10:00 ET and 14:00 ET, respectively.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

AbbVie (ABBV 51.84, -2.29): -4.2% after saying it will reconsider its merger proposal with Shire (SHPG 181.28, -63.29).
ASML Holdings (ASML 91.70, -1.01): -1.1% in reaction to below-consensus results and better than expected revenue guidance.
Bank of America (BAC 16.66, +0.14): +0.9% after beating bottom-line estimates.
BlackRock (BLK 311.00, +4.26): +1.4% following its above-consensus earnings.
Intel (INTC 31.90, -0.24): -0.8% despite reporting a one-cent beat. The company's CFO said they have not observed an industry slowdown.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mostly higher. Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.4%, China's Shanghai Composite +0.6%, and Japan's Nikkei +0.9%
In economic data:
China's CPI ticked up 0.5% month-over-month (expected 0.4%; previous 0.2%) while the year-over-year reading increased 1.6% (consensus 1.7%; last 2.0%). Also of note, PPI fell 1.8% year-over-year (expected -1.6%; prior -1.2%)
Japan's Industrial Production fell 1.9% month-over-month (expected -1.5%; prior -1.5%) while Capacity Utilization dropped 1.7% (last -0.8%)
Australia's Westpac Consumer Sentiment came in at 0.9% (previous -4.6%)
South Korea's Unemployment Rate held at 3.5%, as expected
Singapore's Retail Sales jumped 5.3% month-over-month (expected -0.9%; last -0.2%)
In news:
The Bank of Korea cut its key interest rate 25 basis points to 2.0%, as expected. Furthermore, the central bank lowered its 2014 GDP forecast to 3.5% from 3.8% and cut its CPI forecast to 1.4% from 1.9%.

Major European indices trade lower across the board. Great Britain's FTSE -1.4%, Germany's DAX -1.5%, and France's CAC -1.6%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB -2.5% and Spain's IBEX -1.5%
Participants received several data points:
Germany's CPI was unchanged month-over-month while the year-over-year reading increased 0.8%. Both figures matched expectations
Great Britain's Claimant Count declined 18,600 (expected -35,000; previous -33,200), lowering the Unemployment Rate to 6.0% from 6.2% (expected 6.1%). Separately, Average Earnings Index + Bonus rose 0.7%, as expected
Spain's Current Account surplus expanded to EUR1.40 billion from EUR1.20 billion (expected deficit of EUR300 million)
Swiss ZEW Expectations fell to -30.7 from -7.7 (forecast -12.0)
Among news of note:
Eurozone authorities have informed French officials that their budget does not meet EU criteria, but indications from France suggest no plans are being made for revising the budget.
The European Court of Justice said it will announce its position on the European Central Bank's Outright Monetary Transactions in the middle of January.

6:20 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.00.

6:20 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...15,073.52...+137.00...+0.90%. Hang Seng...23,140.05...+92.10...+0.40%.

6:20 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6,326.59...-65.60...-1.00%. DAX...8,768.00...-56.90...-0.60%.

Gold Holds Near 5-Week High as Dollar to Stocks Drop on Economy

By Glenys Sim Oct 15, 2014 9:32 PM ET

Gold traded near a five-week high as U.S. economic data that missed estimates added to signs a global slowdown may hurt the U.S. recovery, boosting demand for a haven as the dollar and equities dropped.

Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,244.36 an ounce at 9:31 a.m. in Singapore from $1,242.02 yesterday, when prices climbed to $1,249.75, the highest since Sept. 11, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal advanced with Treasuries as U.S. retail sales dropped more than forecast in September.

Bullion rebounded from this year’s low on Oct. 6 and is headed for the first back-to-back weekly rise since July on speculation that the Federal Reserve may delay interest-rate increases. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities slumped to an eight-month low and the Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 raw materials retreated to the lowest level since July 2009.

“Gold’s rally has been a combination of a flight to safety and shorts being squeezed,” said Sun Yonggang, a macroeconomic strategist at Everbright Futures Co. in Shanghai, referring to the unwinding of bets on lower prices. “The dollar continues to be the main driver of gold. The big selloff in other markets may cause some people to take profit on their gold positions to meet margin calls elsewhere.”

Gold for December delivery decreased 0.1 percent to $1,243.80 an ounce on the Comex in New York, after climbing yesterday to $1,250.30, the highest price since Sept. 11. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded product backed by bullion, fell yesterday to 759.14 metric tons, the least since December 2008.

Silver for immediate delivery rose 0.3 percent to $17.5245 an ounce. Spot platinum lost 0.5 percent to $1,255.13 an ounce, and palladium dropped 0.7 percent to $761.63 an ounce.

To contact the reporter on this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at gsim4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net Jake Lloyd-Smith

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader @ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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