TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $3,050.00 dollars or +30.50 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $3,050.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=135&t=1906


Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=248&t=2530

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

4:10 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market ended the Wednesday session on an upbeat note despite enduring a shaky start. The S&P 500 spiked 1.8% with the bulk of the gain coming after the release of the FOMC minutes from the September meeting.

Equity indices began the day near their flat lines following another reminder about slowing global growth. To that point, China's HSBC Services PMI slipped to 53.5 from 54.1 (expected 53.8), but remained above 50.0, which marks the difference between expansion and contraction.

The first half of the session saw a brief dip into the red that was fueled by weakness in the energy sector. At its lowest level, the group was down near 2.0% with crude oil exerting pressure on the sector. Crude fell 1.3% to $87.67/bbl, while the sector ended with a solid gain (+1.0%) after the FOMC minutes sparked an afternoon rally that likely featured a short-covering component.

Most notably, the minutes acknowledged that growth concerns overseas could have an impact on the U.S. through a strengthening dollar, which would lead to a decline in inflation expectations. This was viewed as an indication that the Fed would not rush to raise the fed funds rate, but instead maintain its accommodative policy stance. Treasuries spiked from lows to new highs in response (10-yr yield -3 bps to 2.31%) while the Dollar Index (85.27, -0.40) slumped to a two-week low.

The dovish-sounding statement was accompanied by yet another reminder that economic data would serve as the driving force behind future policy changes. That being said, the overall tenor of the key passages suggests the Fed isn't convinced recent progress toward its objectives can be sustained.

Accordingly, the prospects of continued easy-money policy resulted in a broad-based rally with high-beta groups leading the way. Chipmakers soared with Intel (INTC 34.27, +0.80) climbing 2.4%, while the broader PHLX Semiconductor Index gained 2.3% to narrow this week's loss to 0.5%. For its part, the technology sector (+2.0%) ended the day ahead of the remaining cyclical groups. Germany-based business software developer SAP (SAP 69.21, -1.20) bucked the trend, falling 1.7% amid speculation the company will implement a hiring freeze until 2015.

Elsewhere among cyclical sectors, industrials settled in-line with the market, but that concealed the underperformance of transport stocks. The Dow Jones Transportation Average gained 1.0%, but despite today's advance, the bellwether complex remains down 2.7% since last Friday versus no change for the S&P 500.

On the countercyclical side, the telecom services sector (+0.1%) edged into the green just before the close, while consumer staples (+1.4%), health care (+2.5%), and utilities (+2.2%) posted stronger gains.

The staples sector received a measure of support from Costco (COST 128.73, +3.46), which reported better than expected results. As for health care, the sector received help from biotechnology with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 274.13, +7.51) surging 2.8%.

Today's session invited above-average participation with roughly 900 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data released this morning was limited to the weekly MBA Mortgage Index, which rose 3.8% to follow last week's downtick of 0.2%.

Tomorrow, weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 295K) will be released at 8:30 ET, while the Wholesale Inventories report for August (consensus 0.3%) will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

Nasdaq Composite +7.0% YTD
S&P 500 +6.5% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +2.5% YTD
Russell 2000 -5.8% YTD

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Gold traded higher overnight, broke down in a big way this morning, but has since fully recovered, now higher by 0.6% and back in the upper band of this week's trading range.
Silver continues to probe support levels near $17, trading lower throughout much of the session, but the metal, mirroring the move in gold, is now higher by 0.75%.
Crude oil tanked today, now trading down 1.7% to $87.32/barrel, following inventory data that showed inventories had a build of 5.015 mln vs consensus for a build of 1.5-2.0 mln (see 10:30 comment for details). Oil is creating fresh lows on the daily chart, trading down and testing lows from the week of 4/17/13.
Natural gas also had a rough session, falling 2.45% to $3.86; the LoD was $3.837/MMB, a new 10-day low.

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades higher by 1.1% with one hour remaining in the session. The health care sector (+2.0%) leads into the final hour, while utilities (+1.7%) and technology (+1.5%) follow not far behind.

Notably, the technology sector has received a boost from chipmakers after the group struggled to keep pace with the market earlier today. The PHLX Semiconductor Index trades higher by 1.6%, which has narrowed its week-to-date loss to 1.2%.

Similarly, the high-beta biotechnology group has surged in afternoon action. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 272.55, +5.93) has added 2.2%.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices continue hovering near their best levels of the day with the S&P 500 up 1.2%.

After enduring a shaky first half of the session, the market has turned on a dime after the FOMC Minutes were perceived as dovish. Even the energy sector (+0.2%), which was down in excess of 1.5%, has turned positive while crude oil remains in the red (-1.5% at $87.48/bbl). Meanwhile, five of the remaining six cyclical sectors hold gains of more than 1.0%.

The sharp rally has caused some participants to lift their hedges, which has sent the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 15.48, -1.72) below the 15.50% mark.

2:05 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have spiked to fresh highs following the just-released minutes from the September FOMC meeting.

Most notably, the minutes revealed that Fed officials saw a global slowdown as a potential risk to the U.S. economic outlook. In all likelihood, this is being perceived by the market as a sign suggesting the Fed will not be in a hurry to raise the fed funds rate. Accordingly, the Dollar Index (85.47, -0.20) has slipped to a new session low, while Treasuries have narrowed their losses.

Meanwhile, the remainder of the statement contained few surprises.

1:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] One shouldn't be surprised if there is some knee-jerk trading action at the top of the hour, which is when the minutes from the September 16-17 FOMC meeting will be released.

That meeting drew two dissents from Dallas Fed President Fisher and Philadelphia Fed President Plosser. Accordingly, the stock market has been on edge of late that the minutes will reveal an increased inclination among FOMC participants to raise rates sooner rather than later.

If those concerns are dispelled by the content of the minutes, there could be a decent-sized rally in the afternoon session. Conversely, if they are validated, the major indices could soon reverse course. The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 are all near their best levels of the day.

Separately, the $21 bln 10-yr note reopening didn't go so swell. It drew a high yield of 2.381% on a 2.52 bid-to-cover ratio that was below the prior 12-auction average of 2.70. The 10-yr note, down 11 ticks, slid to its lows for the day after the results.

12:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages are mixed at midday with participants awaiting the 14:00 ET release of the FOMC minutes from the September meeting. The Dow (+0.1%), Nasdaq (-0.1%), and S&P 500 (unch) all hover near their flat lines, while the Russell 2000 (-0.5%) has continued its recent underperformance.

Equity indices spent the opening hour near their flat lines, but were pressured to lows by losses in the energy sector (-1.7%). The growth-sensitive group has widened its October decline to 5.1% with crude oil factoring into the weakness. The energy component trades down 1.7% at $87.32 after testing the $87.00 area following today's inventory report that showed an increase of five million barrels.

At this juncture, the energy sector remains near its low while the broader market has battled back to unchanged with help from heavily-weighted sectors like consumer staples (+0.3%), health care (+0.8%), technology (+0.1%), and financials (+0.1%).

Notably, the health care sector has displayed relative strength since the opening bell with biotechnology joining the advance in the late morning. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 267.06, +0.44) trades higher by 0.2%.

Elsewhere, the consumer staples sector has been underpinned by shares of Costco (COST 127.80, +2.53) after the wholesale retailer beat bottom-line estimates.

Staying on the countercyclical theme, the rate-sensitive utilities sector (+1.0%) holds the lead, which has extended the group's October advance to 1.9%. The sector has benefitted from a decline in the 10-yr yield since the start of the month, but today, the benchmark yield is higher by two basis points at 2.36%. Even with today's uptick, the 10-yr yield is still down 15 basis points from its September close at 2.51%.

Economic data released this morning was limited to the weekly MBA Mortgage Index, which rose 3.8% to follow last week's downtick of 0.2%.

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.1%) hovers just above its flat line after climbing off its session low in the 1925 area. The rebound effort has been fueled by influential sectors like financials (+0.2%), technology (+0.2%), and health care (+0.8%) with their strength overshadowing the continued weakness in the energy space (-1.4%).

Generally speaking, the first few October sessions have been rough for most sectors, but the rate-sensitive utilities space has been able to thrive. The sector is higher by 1.3% today and up 2.2% so far this month. The outperformance of the rate-sensitive group has resulted from a drop in Treasury yields and the overall safe-haven demand that has been on display.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 hover near their flat lines, but small caps have not been able to string together a comparable rebound, leaving the Russell 2000 (-0.8%) not far from its session low.

The small-cap index has been no stranger to relative weakness as of late and has tumbled 6.8% since experiencing a death cross in the middle of September. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has given up 3.8% during that same stretch. Despite the recent slump, the benchmark index remains higher by 4.6% so far in 2014 versus a 8.1% drop for the Russell 2000.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.1%) has narrowed its loss, but continues facing broad weakness. With NYSE decliners outpacing advancers by a 2:1 margin, there are only a few spots of relative strength in the market.

The health care sector (+0.3%) has maintained a modest gain since the start even as biotechnology lags with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 265.79, -0.83) down 0.3%. Elsewhere among countercyclical sectors, utilities (+0.8%) and consumer staples (+0.2%) hold gains, while the telecom services sector (-1.3%) has been pressured following news that Sprint (S 5.88, -0.17) has begun reducing its workforce.

On the cyclical side, the financial sector has inched back into positive territory.

10:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have continued their retreat with small caps pacing the decline. The Russell 2000 is lower by 0.9%, while the S&P 500 has surrendered 0.4%.

Nine of ten sectors traded in the green shortly after the opening bell, but that dynamic has now flipped, leaving the utilities sector (+0.8%) as the lone advancer. On the downside, the energy sector (-1.6%) has dropped to a new low with crude oil contributing to the decline. The energy component trades down 1.9% at $87.13/bbl after being down in excess of 2.0% following today's inventory report, which showed a build of 5.0 million barrels.

Similar to the energy sector, the remaining cyclical groups trade lower across the board, but only the materials sector (-1.1%) shows a decline in the neighborhood of 1.0%.

10:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Crude oil, natural gas and copper futures have been in the red all day so far.
Gold and silver, meanwhile, just sold off and fell into the red
Gold only fell about $8, however. Both gold and silver now sit near current lows on the day.
Dec gold is currently -0.2% at $1209.90/oz, Dec silver is -0.6% at $17.15/oz
Ahead of the weekly EIA inventory data, Nov crude oil was down almost 2% and sitting near its session low
Following the storage data, Nov crude oil lifted a little higher and is now -2% at $87.08/barrel
Nov natural gas is also sitting near its LoD and is now -2% at $3.88/MMbtu

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have slipped from their opening highs with the Russell 2000 (-0.3%) dipping into the red. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has returned to its flat line with the energy sector (-1.0%) pressuring the market. Furthermore, heavily-weighted technology and consumer discretionary sectors have surrendered their opening gains.

At this juncture, the financial sector (+0.3%) is the top performer among cyclical groups, while health care (+0.3%) and utilities (+0.5%) hold gains on the countercyclical side. The slip from the opening highs has led to an uptick in demand for volatility protection, sending the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 17.30, +0.10) higher.

9:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages began the session just above their flat lines amid relative strength in the countercyclical sectors. The utilities sector (+0.8%) is the top performer, while health care (+0.3%) and consumer staples (+0.2%) also display gains.

Things are a bit more mixed on the cyclical side as energy (-0.3%) and materials (-0.1%) lag, while consumer discretionary (+0.3%) and financials (+0.3%) trade ahead of the broader market. As for industrials and technology, the two groups have kept pace with the broader market through the opening minutes.

Treasuries have reclaimed their overnight losses with the 10-yr yield returning to 2.34%.

9:16 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.20. The stock market is on track to begin near its flat line as futures on the S&P 500 trade two points above fair value. Futures on the benchmark index held a six-point gain not too long ago, but they have slid from pre-market highs over the past hour or so. The recent slip coincided with similar price action in Europe where the key indices have returned to their opening levels.

So far this week, the Dollar Index has been backing away from its recent high with the dynamic continuing today. The index is lower by 0.1% (85.61, -0.05) after surrendering its overnight gain. Interestingly, the movement in the greenback has had little impact on crude oil, which is lower by 1.3% at $87.70/bbl.

On the earnings front, Monsanto (MON 107.50, -0.24) is indicated to open lower by 0.7% after missing bottom line estimates and guiding lower. Elsewhere, Yum! Brands (YUM 70.28, +0.55) is on track for an early gain despite missing expectations. Finally, Costco (COST 128.25, +2.98) should give a boost to the consumer staples sector after beating bottom-line estimates.

Treasuries hover in the red with the 10-yr yield up one basis point at 2.35%.

The minutes from the September 17 FOMC meeting will be released at 14:00 ET.

8:59 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +0.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.00. The S&P 500 futures have slid from highs and now trade within a point of fair value.

Markets fell across most of Asia while equities in China outperformed amid speculation the People's Bank of China could expand its targeted rate cuts. Elsewhere, Takatoshi Ito, who advises Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund said the fund should allocate between 20.0% and 25.0% of its asset to Japanese equities. However, Mr. Ito does not expect the portfolio review to take place before December.

In economic data:
Japan's current account surplus widened to JPY130 billion from JPY100 billion (expected surplus of JPY190 billion), while Economy Watchers Current Index held at 47.4 (expected 48.2)
China's HSBC Services PMI slipped to 53.5 from 54.1 (expected 53.8)
Indonesia's Retail Sales rose 9.0% (expected 19.1%; prior 18.6%)

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Japan's Nikkei lost 1.2%, pressing to its lowest level since the beginning of September. The strong yen weighed as Toyota Motor fell 2.2% and Hitachi Construction gave back 3.0%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 0.7%, falling for the first time in four days. Casino stocks continued to reel as Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China lost 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively.
China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.8% to an 18-month high as markets reopened following Golden Week. Real Estate developers outperformed as Hua Yuan Property surged the daily limit, 10%, and China Vanke added 2.4%.
India's Sensex slipped 0.1% to finish at its lowest level in almost two months. Infosys tumbled 4.7% after receiving a tier one downgrade, and that weighed on rivals Wipro and Tata Consultancy Services, which shed 1.0% and 1.8%, respectively.

Major European indices trade in the red while markets in Spain (-0.2%) and Italy (-0.1%) outperform. According to reports, French officials have begun preparing a back-up budget in the event the current plan is not approved by the European Commission.

Economic data was limited:
Great Britain's Halifax House Price Index rose 0.6% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; previous 0.0%), while the year-over-year reading increased 9.6%, as expected (previous 9.7%)
Spain's Industrial Production increased 0.6% year-over-year (expected 1.4%; previous 0.9%)
Swiss Unemployment Rate held at 3.2%, as expected

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Germany's DAX is lower by 0.7% even though 16 of its 30 components hold gains. SAP is a notable laggard, down 3.5% amid speculation the company will implement a job freeze until 2015. Fresenius SE outperforms with a strong gain of 4.6%.
France's CAC trades down 0.6%. Growth-sensitive names lag with Solvay, Legrand, Valeo, and Vinci down between 0.9% and 2.3%.
Great Britain's FTSE holds a loss of 0.3% with Tullow Oil leading the retreat. The energy company has given up 4.3%. Food retailers outperform with WM Morrison Supermarkets and Tesco up 0.3% and 1.2%, respectively.

8:27 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.20. U.S. equity futures continue hovering near their best levels of the morning with the S&P 500 futures holding a four-point gain with respect to fair value. Investors have received a few quarterly reports since yesterday's closing bell, including results from Monsanto (MON 107.00, -0.74), which is indicated to open lower by 0.7% after missing bottom line estimates and guiding lower. The reaction in the materials sector will be interesting to watch considering the group will enter today's session with an October loss of 4.0%, which puts the sector well behind other economic groups.

Elsewhere, the consumer staples sector is likely to receive a measure of support from Costco (COST 128.50, +3.23), which sports a pre-market advance of 2.6% after beating bottom-line estimates.

8:01 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.70. U.S. equity futures hold modest gains despite cautious action overseas. The S&P 500 futures hover five points above fair value after making a short-lived appearance in the red shortly after the start of the European session.

Crude weakness is a theme that has persisted as of late. On that note, the energy component trades lower by 0.6% at $88.29/bbl after being down as much as 1.6% overnight. Including today's loss, oil is now down in excess of 15.0% since the start of July. As for the greenback, the Dollar Index (85.78, +0.11) holds a modest gain.

Treasuries hover in the red with the 10-yr yield up two basis points at 2.36%.

The weekly MBA Mortgage Index rose 3.8% to follow last week's downtick of 0.2%. Also of note, the minutes from the September 17 FOMC meeting will be released at 14:00 ET.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Costco (COST 127.30, +2.03): +1.6% after beating bottom-line estimates
Symantec (SYMC 24.19, +1.00): +4.3% after Bloomberg reported the company may split up its security and storage units
YUM! Brands (YUM 70.40, +0.67): +1.0% despite missing estimates and guiding lower

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mostly lower. Japan's Nikkei -1.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.7%, and China's Shanghai Composite +0.8%
In economic data:
Japan's current account surplus widened to JPY130 billion from JPY100 billion (expected surplus of JPY190 billion), while Economy Watchers Current Index held at 47.4 (expected 48.2)
China's HSBC Services PMI slipped to 53.5 from 54.1 (expected 53.8)
Indonesia's Retail Sales rose 9.0% (expected 19.1%; prior 18.6%)
In news:
Equities in China outperformed amid speculation the People's Bank of China could expand its targeted rate cuts
Takatoshi Ito, who advises Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund said the fund should allocate between 20.0% and 25.0% of its asset to Japanese equities. However, Mr. Ito does not expect the portfolio review to take place before December

Major European indices trade with modest losses. Germany's DAX -0.5%, France's CAC -0.3%, and Great Britain's FTSE -0.1%. Elsewhere, Spain's IBEX +0.2% and Italy's MIB +0.3%
Economic data was limited:
Great Britain's Halifax House Price Index rose 0.6% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; previous 0.0%), while the year-over-year reading increased 9.6%, as expected (previous 9.7%)
Swiss Unemployment Rate held at 3.2%, as expected Spain's Industrial Production increased 0.6% year-over-year (expected 1.4%; previous 0.9%)
Among news of note:
French officials have reportedly begun preparing a back-up budget in the event the current plan is not approved by the European Commission

6:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.50.

6:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...15,595.98...-187.90...-1.20%. Hang Seng...23,263.33...-159.20...-0.70%.

6:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6,464.86...-30.70...-0.50%. DAX...9,025.57...-60.60...-0.70%.

Fed Officials Saw Global Slowdown Among Risks to Outlook

By Jeff Kearns and Christopher Condon Oct 8, 2014 5:18 PM ET

Federal Reserve policy makers last month worried that slowing global growth and a stronger dollar posed risks to the U.S. economy as they decided to maintain a pledge to keep interest rates low for a “considerable time.”

A number of officials said the U.S. expansion “might be slower than they expected if foreign economic growth came in weaker than anticipated,” according to minutes of the Sept. 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee meeting released today in Washington.

The minutes highlight growing concern among policy makers who say further gains in the dollar could hurt exports and damp inflation, which has undershot the Fed’s goal for more than two years. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major currencies, is up almost 6 percent since the beginning of July.

Stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index up the most this year, and the dollar weakened as investors speculated that caution over the economic outlook would lead the Fed to keep interest rates near zero for longer.

“They’re still in no hurry to start tightening,” said Jonathan Wright, an economics professor at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore who formerly worked at the Fed’s division of monetary affairs. “Inflation is just too low.”

Spurring global growth will be on the agenda as finance ministers and central bankers gather in Washington this week for the annual meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. The IMF yesterday cut its global growth forecast for 2015 and warned about the risks of rising geopolitical tensions.

European Woes

At last month’s FOMC meeting, “some participants expressed concern that the persistent shortfall of economic growth and inflation in the euro area could lead to a further appreciation of the dollar and have adverse effects on the U.S. external sector,” according to the minutes.

A stronger dollar hurts U.S. exporters by making their goods more expensive in overseas markets. It also makes foreign goods cheaper in the U.S., potentially widening the trade deficit and keeping a lid on inflation.

The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 1.8 percent to 1,968.89 at the 4 p.m. close of trading in New York. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was down 0.5 percent.

Regional Fed presidents, including Atlanta’s Dennis Lockhart, New York’s William C. Dudley and Chicago’s Charles Evans, have all said in the past month they are watching the dollar as officials debate the timing of the first interest-rate increase since 2006.

Rate Pledge

The FOMC last month retained a pledge to keep interest rates near zero for a “considerable time” after it concludes an asset purchase program that’s due to end after its October meeting.

“Some participants saw the current forward guidance as appropriate in light of risk-management considerations, which suggested that it would be prudent to err on the side of patience while awaiting further evidence of sustained progress toward the committee’s goals,” minutes of the gathering show.

“Not only are they not ready to raise rates, they don’t even want people to think they’re ready to raise rates, so it’s not even on the radar screen,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at primary dealer Jefferies Group LLC in New York.

At the same time, “the concern was raised that the reference to ‘considerable time’ in the current forward guidance could be misunderstood as a commitment rather than as data dependent,” the minutes said.

Some officials have said dropping the pledge would offer more flexibility to react to new economic data. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and Philadelphia’s Charles Plosser both dissented against the September FOMC statement.

Financial Stability

The minutes showed there was a discussion on financial stability and developments including a deterioration in leveraged lending standards, stretched stock market valuations, and compressed risk spreads.

Since last month’s FOMC statement, the September jobs report has shown that a labor-market rebound continues, with a 248,000 gain in payrolls last month after a 180,000 increase in August that was bigger than previously estimated. That pushed unemployment down to a six-year low of 5.9 percent.

While the labor market is healing, officials continue to express concern that inflation is too low. Prices as measured by the personal consumption expenditures index rose 1.5 percent in August, below the Fed’s 2 percent target.

While most participants at the Fed meeting thought inflation would move gradually toward the Fed’s goal, a couple said it was possible that “domestic inflation might be held down by persistent disinflation among U.S. trading partners and further appreciation of the dollar,” the minutes showed.

To contact the reporters on this story: Jeff Kearns in Washington at jkearns3@bloomberg.net; Christopher Condon in Washington at ccondon4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Chris Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net Mark Rohner

Gold Climbs to Highest in Almost Two Weeks After Fed Minutes

By Glenys Sim and Jasmine Ng Oct 8, 2014 11:02 PM ET

Gold extended an advance to head for the longest rally since June as Federal Reserve officials expressed concern that the U.S. economy may be at risk from a global slowdown, weakening the dollar and boosting haven demand.

Gold for immediate delivery added as much as 0.4 percent to $1,225.60 an ounce, the highest level since Sept. 26, and traded at $1,224.16 by 11:02 a.m. in Singapore, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal rose 2.5 percent in the three days through yesterday after the Fed released minutes of its Sept. 16-17 meeting when it kept a pledge to hold rates near zero for a “considerable time.”

Bullion extended a rebound from this year’s low of $1,183.24 on Oct. 6, as a number of Fed officials said the U.S. expansion “might be slower than they expected if foreign economic growth came in weaker than anticipated,” according to the minutes. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed after retreating from an almost four-year high on Oct. 3.

“The weaker dollar played a role in triggering gold’s advance,” Edward Meir, an analyst at INTL FCStone Inc., wrote in a note. “The sell-off in the dollar was due in large part to the release of the Fed minutes, which apparently were not as hawkish-sounding as the market had been anticipating.”

Gold for December delivery rose as much as 1.7 percent to $1,226.20 an ounce on the Comex in New York, the biggest intraday gain since Aug. 6, and traded at $1,224.10. Futures fell 0.5 percent yesterday before the minutes were released.

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest gold-backed exchange-traded product, declined yesterday to 762.08 metric tons, the least since December 2008.

Silver for immediate delivery climbed 0.4 percent to $17.4508 an ounce, extending yesterday’s 1.1 percent increase. Spot platinum fell 0.2 percent to $1,277 an ounce after prices climbed 4.5 percent in the three days through yesterday. Palladium was at $802.60 an ounce from $802.74 yesterday, when prices completed a three-day, 6.3 percent advance.

To contact the reporters on this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at gsim4@bloomberg.net; Jasmine Ng in Singapore at jng299@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net Ovais Subhani, Thomas Kutty Abraham

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader @ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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