TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $2,030.00 dollars or +20.30 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $2,030.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=134&t=1891


Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=246&t=2502

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

Yahoo! Finance

4:10 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market finished an upbeat week on a mixed note. The S&P 500 shed less than a point, ending the week higher by 1.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%) cemented a 1.7% advance for the week. High-beta names underperformed, which weighed on the Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%) and the Russell 2000 (-1.3%).

Equity indices displayed strength in the early going with the S&P 500 tagging the 2,019 level during the opening 30 minutes of the action. However, that represented the high watermark for the benchmark index, which returned to its flat line by the close.

The early advance followed the failed independence referendum in Scotland, which averted a potential storm in the financial markets. Once the uncertainty was cast aside, participants directed their focus to the Alibaba Group (BABA 93.89, +25.89) IPO, which represented the largest public debut to date. Shares of Alibaba opened at $92.70 after pricing at $68/share, but could not settle above the opening print.

Alibaba followed a similar pattern as the broader market with the latter being weighed down by influential sectors like financials (-0.3%), technology (-0.4%), and industrials (-0.1%).

Despite today's underperformance, the financial sector finished the week among the leaders with a solid gain of 1.5% since last Friday. Meanwhile, technology lagged since the open following disappointing quarterly results from Oracle (ORCL 39.80, -1.75). The stock tumbled 4.2% in reaction to below-consensus earnings/revenue and news that CEO Larry Ellison will step down from his post.

Also of note, Oracle's peer, SAP (SAP 74.00, -3.35), lost 4.3% after announcing the acquisition of Concur Technologies (CNQR 126.82, +19.02) for $129 per share. High-beta chipmakers were unable to fill the void left by the two software giants as evidenced by a 1.2% decline in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. Despite today's slide, the index still finished the week with a strong gain of 1.5%.

For its part, the industrial sector lagged amid weakness in machinery stocks after Caterpillar (CAT 102.47, -1.87) provided a disappointing update regarding its sales over the past three months. The Dow component lost 1.8%, while peer Joy Global (JOY 58.02, -1.20) fell 2.0%.

Caterpillar was the weakest performer in the Dow and the only stock that fell more than 1.0%. On the upside, 22 index components posted gains with Coca-Cola (KO 42.05, +0.26) leading the pack. The stock climbed 0.6%, contributing to the relative strength of the consumer staples sector (+0.2%).

Similar to consumer staples, the remaining three countercyclical groups settled ahead of the broader market. Telecom services and utilities both jumped near 1.0%, while health care (+0.1%) ended among the leaders despite volatile action in the biotech space. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 275.23, +0.16) tacked on 0.1%.

Treasuries spent the session in a steady climb, pressuring the 10-yr yield to 2.58%. Participation was well ahead of average thanks to the Alibaba IPO and quadruple witching. More than 1.8 billion shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data was limited to the Leading Indicators report for August, which showed an increase of 0.2% on top of an upwardly revised 1.1% (from 0.9%) reading for July. The Briefing.com consensus estimate called for an increase of 0.4%. The difference between what was expected and what was reported can be traced directly to the building permits contribution, which subtracted 0.18 percentage points in August. Consensus estimates could not be updated in a timely manner to reflect the impact of the weaker than expected building permits report, which was released yesterday.

On Monday, the Existing Home Sales report for August will be released at 10:00 ET.

Nasdaq Composite +9.7% YTD
S&P 500 +8.8% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +4.2% YTD
Russell 2000 -1.6% YTD

Week in Review: Stocks Rally While FOMC Stays the Course

The stock market welcomed the new trading week with a mixed session that saw relative strength among large-cap stocks, while high-beta names underperformed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.3%) and S&P 500 (-0.1%) finished near their flat lines, while the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 both lost 1.1%. Equities began the day on a cautious note amid continued concerns regarding the strength of the global economy. Over the weekend, China reported its first decline in electricity production since 2009, while Industrial Production (6.9%; expected 8.8%) grew at its slowest pace since December 2008. Likewise, the Industrial Production report from the U.S. (-0.1%; Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) also left a bit to be desired.

The major averages posted solid gains on Tuesday ahead of Wednesday's policy directive from the Federal Open Market Committee. The S&P 500 rallied 0.8%, while the Russell 2000 (+0.3%) could not keep pace with the benchmark index. Equity indices hovered near their flat lines during the first two hours of action, but surged in reaction to reports from the Wall Street Journal concerning next day's FOMC statement. Specifically, Fed watcher Jon Hilsenrath indicated that the statement would once again reflect the Fed's intentions to keep the fed funds rate at the zero bound for a considerable time after quantitative easing is wound down. The report sent the market higher since it contrasted with recent speculation that the Fed would drop the 'considerable time' language from its guidance, thus implying a swifter rate hike.

Stocks ended the midweek session with slim gains after showing some intraday volatility in reaction to the release of the latest policy directive from the Federal Open Market Committee. The S&P 500 added 0.1%, while the relative strength among small caps sent the Russell 2000 higher by 0.3%. The key indices spent the first half of the session near their flat lines as participants stuck to the sidelines ahead of the FOMC statement, which conveyed no changes to the Fed's current policy course. As expected, the Fed reduced the monthly pace of its asset purchases by $10 billion to $15 billion, setting expectations for the program to be wound down at the next meeting. Furthermore, the Fed maintained the "considerable time" language in its forward guidance, suggesting the first rate hike remains somewhat distant.

The market finished the Thursday session on a higher note with the S&P 500 climbing 0.5%. The benchmark index registered an early high within the first 90 minutes and inched to a new session best during the final hour of the action. Equities rallied out of the gate with the financial sector (+1.1%) providing noteworthy support for the second day in a row. The growth-oriented sector extended its September gain to 1.9% versus a more modest uptick of 0.4% for the S&P 500. Although financials did some heavy lifting, other influential sectors like health care (+0.8%) and technology (+0.7%) also served up a measure of support.

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The commodity complex was under pressure today as a stronger dollar index weighed on prices.

Dec gold pulled back from its session high of $1226.30 per ounce set in morning action and traded as low as $1214.60 per ounce, its lowest since January 2014. Unable to gain momentum, it settled 0.8% lower at $1216.50 per ounce, booking a loss of 1.2% for the week.

Dec silver fell to four year lows after trading as high as $18.49 per ounce in early morning floor trade. It touched $17.83 per ounce, its lowest since August 2010, moments before settling with a 3.6% loss at $17.85 per ounce. Today's weakness brought losses for the week to 4.1%.

Oct crude oil retreated into negative territory after touching a session high of $93.22 per barrel in morning action. The energy component dipped to a session low of $91.85 per barrel and eventually settled with a 0.7% loss at $92.42 per barrel, shaving gains for the week to 0.3%.

Oct natural gas was also weak today. It fell as low as $3.83 per MMBtu after trading at a session high of $3.88 per MMBtu in early morning action. Unable to find buying support, it settled 1.8% lower at $3.84 per MMBtu, booking a loss of 0.5% for the week.

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.1% with one hour left in the trading week. If the benchmark index ends near its current level, that would represent a 1.4% advance since last Friday. However, the solid gain has not been matched by other indices.

The price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average enters the final hour of action with a week-to-date gain of 1.9%, while the Nasdaq has added just 0.4% this week. High-beta names contributed to the underperformance of the Nasdaq, and their weakness has caused the Russell 2000 to surrender 1.2% this week.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Afternoon action continues with the S&P 500 trading right near its flat line.

With quadruple witching and the big Alibaba Group (BABA 92.57, +24.57) IPO taking place today, the trading volume has already surpassed its high watermark of the month. More than 740 million shares have changed hands at the NYSE with 90 minutes left to go in the trading day versus a 200-day average of 676 million.

Market breadth, meanwhile, remains tilted to the downside with nearly 1.8 issues trading in the red for each advancer. The Nasdaq has faced more aggressive selling with 2.6 decliners for each name trading in the green.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.1%) continues hovering right below its flat line with heavily-weighted sectors like financials (-0.2%), industrials (-0.1%), and technology (-0.5%) pressuring the broader market.

On the upside, countercyclical telecom services (+0.6%) and utilities (+0.7%) sport solid gains, but the two groups carry little influence over the broader market since they represent just 5.4% of the entire S&P 500. Meanwhile, the top-weighted sector-technology-accounts for 18.8% of the market.

Elsewhere, Treasuries are on their highs with the 10-yr yield down three basis points at 2.59%.

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Alibaba Group (BABA 90.92, +22.92) is up big. The major indices are not. In fact, the higher the opening indication for Alibaba went, it seems the more the indices faded from their opening strength.

That could be owed to Alibaba drawing buying interest away from everything else. Volume in the stock is already a stunning 202 million shares, which is giving a huge lift to NYSE totals on this quarterly expiration day for stock options, index options, index futures, and individual stock futures.

The optimism leading up to Alibaba's IPO was deemed to be a supportive factor for the stock market, so some of today's weakness can be attributed in part to a sell-the-news response.

That looks readily apparent in the shares of Yahoo (YHOO 40.45, -1.63), which are trading 4.3% lower. Yahoo held a 23% stake in Alibaba and sold just shy of 122 million shares today, pocketing roughly $8.3 billion in gross proceeds. Prior to today's action, shares of YHOO had gained as much as 23% from their August 12 low.

1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages are a bit scattered at midday with blue chip listings showing relative strength while high-beta names lag. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%) holds a modest gain; the Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%) sports a modest decline; and the S&P 500 (-0.1%) sits near its flat line. For its part, the Russell 2000 trades lower by 1.4%.

Equity indices displayed early strength after the failed independence referendum in Scotland preserved the status quo. With the uncertainty cast aside, participants shifted their focus to the Alibaba.com (BABA 90.44, +22.44) IPO, which represented the largest public debut to date. Shares of Alibaba opened at $92.70 after pricing at $68/share.

Alibaba has taken a step back from its opening high and so has the broader market. Notably, the technology sector (-0.7%) has lagged since the start amid widespread weakness. Oracle (ORCL 39.60, -1.95) trades down 4.7% after reporting disappointing results and announcing CEO Larry Ellison will step down. However, the company did boost its share repurchase program by $13 billion.

Furthermore, high-beta chipmakers have not fared much better with the PHLX Semiconductor Index down 1.1%.

Elsewhere, another influential sector-health care (+0.1%)-remains just ahead of the broader market despite a recent slide in the biotech space. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 273.61, -1.46) is lower by 0.5% after being up near 1.0% at the start of the session.

On the upside, the relative strength among blue chip names has underpinned the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Roughly 2/3 of the index trades in the green with Chevron (CVX 125.45, +1.31) setting the pace. Fittingly, the energy sector (+0.3%) is the top performing cyclical group.

Treasuries are near their best levels of the session with the 10-yr yield down two basis points at 2.59%

Economic data was limited to the Leading Indicators report for August, which showed an increase of 0.2% on top of an upwardly revised 1.1% (from 0.9%) reading for July. The Briefing.com consensus estimate called for an increase of 0.4%. The difference between what was expected and what was reported can be traced directly to the building permits contribution, which subtracted 0.18 percentage points in August. Consensus estimates could not be updated in a timely manner to reflect the impact of the weaker than expected building permits report, which was released yesterday.

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market has continued its retreat from the session high that was notched during the first 30 minutes of action. High-beta names have extended their losses, resulting in underperformance for the Russell 2000 (-1.1%) and high-growth areas like biotechnology (IBB -0.5%) and chipmakers (PHLX SOX Index -1.0%).

Elsewhere, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.2%) remains in the green thanks to gains among 20 of its 30 components. Chevron (CVX 125.48, +1.34) leads with an increase of 1.1%, while McDonald's (MCD 94.36, +0.88) is the only other component trading with a gain close to 1.0%.

On the downside, Caterpillar (CAT 102.37, -1.97) is the weakest performer, down 1.9% after providing a disappointing update regarding its sales over the past three months. The broader industrial sector (-0.1%) also trails the broader market.

11:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Recent action saw the S&P 500 (+0.1%) slip to a session low, while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) is now in the red.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq has trailed the S&P 500 since the start and has been pressured into negative territory by the continued underperformance of chipmaker stocks. The PHLX Semiconductor Index has widened its loss to 0.8% amid weakness in 29 of its 30 components.

Furthermore, the index has also been pressured by the biotech group, which has dropped from its early high. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 275.44, +0.37) has narrowed its gain to 0.1% after being up as much as 0.8% in the early going.

Also of note, shares of Alibaba.com (BABA 94.50, +1.80) have opened for trading at $92.70 after pricing its IPO at $68/share.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices continue holding modest gains with participants awaiting the public debut of Alibaba.com (BABA), which will represent the biggest initial public offering to date. According to recent indications, the stock is expected to open in the $90-91 range after pricing at $68/share.

On a separate note, the Dollar Index (+0.4%) hovers near its best level of the session, which also represents the high water mark from June 2013. The greenback holds gains against all major currencies with the pound (-0.8%) showing the largest loss. The Dollar Index, meanwhile, is on track to add 0.5% for the week.

10:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have backed away from their early highs with the Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%) returning into the neighborhood of its flat line. The index lags amid weakness in the shares of Oracle (ORCL 39.50, -2.05), which has also pressured the technology sector (-0.3%). Meanwhile, the remaining nine sectors sport gains between 0.1% (consumer staples) and 0.5% (telecom services).

Furthermore, chipmakers also weigh on the Nasdaq as evidenced by a 0.4% decline in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. Most index components hover in the red, while Texas Instruments (TXN 49.22, +0.24) outperforms with a modest gain of 0.5%.

Elsewhere, Treasuries have erased their morning gains and now trade flat. The 10-yr yield sits at 2.62%.

10:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] A stronger dollar index is putting pressure on the commodities space today.

Precious metals have been trading in negative territory this morning, with both Dec gold and Dec silver slipping to new LoDs in recent action. Gold is currently down 0.6% at $1219.30 while silver is down 1.9% at $18.17.

Oct crude oil pulled back from its session high of $92.33 set shortly after equity markets opened and is now down 0.9% at $92.19.

Oct natural gas brushed a session low of $3.83 in recent action and is currently trading at $3.84, or 1.7% lower.

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.4% with all ten sectors sporting gains. The benchmark index has extended this week's gain to 1.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.4%) is now higher by 2.0% since last Friday.

The Leading Indicators report for August was up 0.2%, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 0.4%. That followed a revised increase of 1.1% for July (from 0.9%).

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages climbed out of the gate with the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the lead. The blue chip index trades higher by 0.4%, while the S&P 500 has added 0.3% with all ten sectors showing early gains.

Cyclical sectors have displayed noteworthy strength with five of six growth-oriented groups trading in-line with or ahead of the broader market. However, the technology sector (+0.1%) has yet to catch up to the broader market. Oracle (ORCL 40.10, -1.45) weighs, trading lower by 3.5% after reporting disappointing results and announcing CEO Larry Ellison will step down. However, the company did boost its share repurchase program by $13 billion.

On the countercyclical side, health care (+0.4%) and telecom services (+0.8%) outperform, while consumer staples (+0.2%) and utilities (+0.3%) trade a bit behind the broader market.

Treasuries remain near their highs with the 10-yr yield down one basis point at 2.61%.

The Leading Indicators report for August (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) will be released at 10:00 ET.

9:14 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +6.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.50. The stock market is on track to register gains at the open as futures on the S&P 500 trade six points above fair value. However, the current advance represents about a half of the original overnight gain.

Equity futures and the British pound spiked last evening in reaction to the failed Scottish referendum on independence, but unlike index futures, the pound has surrendered its entire gain. The move in the pound reflected a 'sell-the-news' reaction after traders rushed into the currency ahead of the vote amid increased expectations of a 'no' victory. Recall that the pound was experiencing weakness before a potential 'yes' vote became a legitimate concern in recent weeks. The pound/dollar pair hovers near 1.6350 after notching a high near 1.6525.

Domestically, the technology sector has been in focus with Oracle (ORCL 40.45, -1.10) reporting disappointing earnings and announcing CEO Larry Ellison will step down from his post. Meanwhile, peer SAP (SAP 74.32, -3.03) has agreed to acquire Concur Technologies (CNQR 128.10, +20.35) for $129/share.

Last, but not least, Alibaba.com (BABA) priced 320 million shares at $68, which was the top end of the upwardly revised range. The stock will begin trading today.

Treasuries are modestly higher with the 10-yr yield off one basis point at 2.60%.

8:57 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +7.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +17.00. The S&P 500 futures trade seven points above fair value.

It was a sea of green across Asia as only India's Sensex (-0.1%) failed to gain. Elsewhere, the Japanese government downgraded its economic assessment, as speculated earlier in the week.

In economic data:
Japan's Leading Index ticked down to 105.4 from 105.5 (expected 105.5), while All Industries Activity Index slipped 0.2% month-over-month (consensus 0.4%; previous -0.3%)
South Korea's PPI ticked down 0.1% month-over-month (previous 0.1%), while the year-over-year reading fell 0.2% (last 0.2%)
New Zealand's Credit Card Spending rose 4.2% year-over-year (prior 4.5%), while Visitor Arrivals declined 3.0% month-over-month (last -0.6%)

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Japan's Nikkei gained 1.6%, surging to its best levels since November 2007, fueled by the yen slumping to a fresh six-year low. Heavyweight Fast Retailing provided support with a 3.6% gain while exporters Canon and Honda Motor Corp tacked on 1.4% and 1.2%, respectively.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.6%, climbing off eight-week lows. Financials linked to the United Kingdom gained as Scotland voted 'No." HSBC Holdings rallied 1.7% and Standard Chartered added 0.9%.
China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.6% to near six-month highs. Technology shares were strong, boosted by the Alibaba IPO in the U.S.
India's Sensex shed 0.1%, but held near record highs. Automakers were among the laggards as Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors fell 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively.

Major European indices trade mostly higher, while France's CAC (-0.2%) and Italy's MIB (-0.5%) underperform. French President Francois Hollande commented on the euro, saying the single currency has weakened to a 'more suitable level.' Elsewhere, the British pound surged overnight in reaction to the first set of results from the failed Scottish independence vote, but succumbed to a 'sell-the-news' reaction once the results became clear. The pound/dollar pair traded as high as 1.6524 before sliding below the 1.6350 level.

Economic data was limited:
Eurozone Current Account surplus widened to EUR18.70 billion from EUR18.60 billion (expected surplus of EUR16.50 billion)
Germany's PPI ticked down 0.1% month-over-month, while the year-over-year reading declined 0.8%. Both figures matched expectations

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Germany's DAX has added 0.2% with support from defensively-oriented names. Deutsche Telekom, Deutsche Post, and E.On are up between 1.6% and 3.2%. SAP is the weakest performer, down 3.4% after agreeing to acquire Concur Technologies.
Great Britain's FTSE is higher by 0.6% with Royal Bank of Scotland in the lead following the failed independence campaign in Scotland. The stock has added 2.9%. Miners lag with Anglo American and Rio Tinto down 0.5% and 1.1%, respectively.
In France, the CAC trades lower by 0.2% amid weakness in growth-sensitive names. Cap Gemini and Credit Agricole hold respective losses of 1.3% and 1.0%. Utilities outperform with Veolia Environnement up 2.2%.
Italy's MIB is lower by 0.5% with financials on the defensive. Banco Popolare, Banca di Milano Scarl, and Intesa Sanpaolo are down between 1.4% and 2.0%.

8:27 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.70. U.S. equity futures continue holding gains, but they have slipped from their overnight highs. The S&P 500 futures hover near the 2008 level after marking an overnight high just north of the 2014 area.

Meanwhile in the foreign exchange market, the Dollar Index (+0.4%) hovers at its best level of the session with the greenback registering gains against most major currencies. The dollar has rallied against the euro (+0.5%) and the pound (+0.7%), but trades little changed versus the Japanese yen. The dollar/yen pair traded as high as 109.48 overnight, but now hovers below the 109.00 level.

7:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.50. U.S. equity futures trade modestly higher amid upbeat action overseas. The S&P 500 futures hover five points above fair value. The global risk appetite got a boost overnight after the results of the Scottish independence referendum revealed a 55-45 vote in favor of remaining in the UK. The pound saw a brief extension of its recent rally before surrendering its overnight advance. The pound/dollar pair traded as high as 1.6524 before sliding below the 1.6400 level. As a result, the Dollar Index (+0.3%) has approached Wednesday's high.

Domestically, participants have been responding to macroeconomic developments while also digesting some news from the corporate front. It is worth mentioning that Alibaba.com (BABA) priced 320 million shares at $68/share, which represents the top end of the expected range. The stock will begin trading today. As for economic data, today's session will feature just one release-the Leading Indicators report for August (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%)-which will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

Treasuries are slightly higher with the 10-yr yield down one basis point at 2.61%.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Concur Technologies (CNQR 129.00, +21.20): +19.7% after agreeing to be acquired by SAP (SAP 74.30, -3.05) for $129 per share.
Oracle (ORCL 40.32, -1.23): -3.0% after missing earnings/revenue estimates and announcing Chief Executive Officer Larry Ellison will step down from his post.
TIBCO Software (TIBX 20.00, -0.79): -3.0% after missing on both metrics and issuing below-consensus guidance.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended higher. China's Shanghai Composite +0.6%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.6%, and Japan's Nikkei +1.6%.
In economic data:
Japan's Leading Index ticked down to 105.4 from 105.5 (expected 105.5), while All Industries Activity Index slipped 0.2% month-over-month (consensus 0.4%; previous -0.3%)
South Korea's PPI ticked down 0.1% month-over-month (previous 0.1%), while the year-over-year reading fell 0.2% (last 0.2%)
New Zealand's Credit Card Spending rose 4.2% year-over-year (prior 4.5%), while Visitor Arrivals declined 3.0% month-over-month (last -0.6%)
In news:
As speculated earlier in the week, the cabinet of Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe lowered its economic assessment for the first time in five months.

Major European indices trade mostly higher. Germany's DAX +0.4%, Great Britain's FTSE +0.6%, and France's CAC -0.2%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB -0.2% and Spain's IBEX +0.4%.
Economic data was limited:
Eurozone Current Account surplus widened to EUR18.70 billion from EUR18.60 billion (expected surplus of EUR16.50 billion)
Germany's PPI ticked down 0.1% month-over-month, while the year-over-year reading declined 0.8%. Both figures matched expectations
Among news of note:
The British pound surged overnight in reaction to the first set of results from the failed Scottish independence vote, but succumbed to a 'sell-the-news' reaction once the results became clear.
French President Francois Hollande commented on the euro, saying the single currency has weakened to a 'more suitable level.'

6:19 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +7.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.00.

6:19 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...16,321.17...+253.60...+1.60%. Hang Seng...24,306.16...+137.40...+0.60%.

6:19 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6,861.32...+41.20...+0.60%. DAX...9,875.03...+75.80...+0.80%.

S&P 500 Falls From Record, Alibaba Rallies; Oil Drops

By Joseph Ciolli and Jeremy Herron Sep 19, 2014 4:10 PM ET

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell from a record, while small-cap shares sank and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. rallied in its debut. Commodities declined to a five-year low and the dollar advanced.

The S&P 500 fell less than 0.1 percent at 4 p.m. in New York. Alibaba surged 38 percent on its first day of trading. The Russell 2000 sank 1.3 percent. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) retreated 0.8 percent as oil slid. Gold fell to an eight-month low, while silver hit the cheapest in four years. The U.S. Dollar Index rose for a 10th straight week, the longest since at least March 1967, as the yen slid to a six-year low.

Alibaba opened at $92.70 after selling shares at $68 in an initial public offering that raised $21.8 billion, the biggest U.S. IPO ever. Today marked a quarterly event known as quadruple witching, when futures and options contracts on indexes and stocks expire. Scotland’s First Minister Alex Salmond resigned after the anti-independence “No” camp garnered 55 percent of the votes.

“The market is telling us that it’s beginning to prepare for an eventual cessation of quantitative easing and a rate hike,” Kevin Caron, who helps oversee $170 billion at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in Florham Park, New Jersey, said in a phone interview. “That’s caused global asset flows to seek the dollar, boosting all dollar-denominated assets, and that’s what we’ve seen in stocks.”

Alibaba IPO

The S&P 500 climbed for a third day yesterday to close at a record, boosted by optimism that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low even as the world’s largest economy shows signs of improving. The equities benchmark rose 1.3 percent this week, the sixth gain in seven.

Data today showed an index of leading indicators climbed 0.2 percent in August after jumping 0.9 percent in July. Economists forecast a gain of 0.4 percent.

Alibaba and shareholders including Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) sold 320.1 million shares in the Hangzhou, China-based company for $68 each, after offering them at a range of between $66 and $68, according to a statement.

Phone and utility shares rose at least 0.8 percent to pace gains among seven of the 10 main groups in the S&P 500. Technology shares fell 0.42 percent. Yahoo retreated 2.7 percent.

Among other stocks moving, Oracle Corp. fell 4.2 percent after naming two co-chief executive officers as Larry Ellison stepped down. Dresser-Rand Group Inc. rallied 9.4 percent after people familiar with the matter said Siemens AG is preparing to offer more than $6.5 billion for it. Concur Technologies Inc. jumped 18 percent as SAP SE agreed to buy the company for $7.4 billion to boost its cloud-computing business.

Quadruple Witching

The operator of the S&P 500 will also rebalance the index in a quarterly move to adjust member weightings. About $25 billion of shares will be traded as investors buy and sell stocks to mimic the changes, according to a Sept. 7 estimate by Howard Silverblatt, an index analyst at the New York-based S&P Dow Jones Indices.

U.K. shares rose after the Scotland vote that put the future of the 307-year-old union on a knife edge and risked years of political and financial turmoil.

Scotland Vote

The FTSE 100 advanced 0.3 percent to its highest close since Sept. 4, when it reached a 14-year high during the day. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc advanced 2.5 percent for the biggest gain in the index. The Stoxx 600 rose for a third day and climbed 1.3 percent this week.

“Now that the Scotland independence vote is out of the way, risk aversion in asset markets has subsided,” said Soeren Moerch, head of fixed-income trading at Danske Bank A/S. “People re-focus on fundamentals. The U.K. story is now back on growth and its first rate increase.”

Spain’s government bonds advanced for a fifth day after the Scottish referendum results eased concern that the Iberian nation’s Catalonia region will break away. Spanish 10-year yields fell eight basis points to 2.20 percent. The rate on 10-year Italian debt dropped seven basis points to 2.37 percent.

Dollar Streak

The dollar added 0.3 percent to 108.97 yen after touching 109.46, the highest since August 2008. It rose for a sixth week, the longest advance this year. The greenback increased 0.7 percent to $1.2837 per euro, 1 percent stronger this week. The yen rose 0.4 percent to 139.84 per euro.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which Intercontinental Exchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, increased 0.5 percent. It gained 0.6 percent on the week after the Fed signaled an end to unprecedented monetary stimulus.

Treasury 10-year yields fell four basis points to 2.58 percent. They earlier touched 2.65 percent, the highest since July 7.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index declined to the lowest since July 2009. Wheat fell 2.9 percent and West Texas Intermediate oil dropped 0.7 percent to end at $92.41 a barrel as the dollar rose. Gold futures for December delivery dropped 0.8 percent to settle at $1,216.60 an ounce. Silver tumbled under $18 an ounce to the cheapest in four years. The metal sank 3.6 percent for the biggest drop this year.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slipped 0.2 percent, capping weekly drop. Currencies weakened as the U.S. moves closer to raising interest rates, damping demand for riskier assets. A gauge of 20 developing-nation currencies slid 0.5 percent this week, a fifth consecutive decline, to the lowest level since 2009.

To contact the reporters on this story: Joseph Ciolli in New York at jciolli@bloomberg.net; Jeremy Herron in New York at jherron8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Lynn Thomasson at lthomasson@bloomberg.net Jeremy Herron, Sandy Hendry

Dollar Has Longest Win Streak Since 1967 on Divergence

By Andrea Wong Sep 19, 2014 5:17 PM ET

The dollar had its longest stretch of weekly gains since Lyndon Johnson was in the White House after the Federal Reserve signaled an end to unprecedented monetary stimulus measures next year.

The U.S. Dollar Index advanced for a 10th straight week, the longest since at least March 1967, when Johnson was in the fourth year of his presidency. The yen fell to a six-year low as the Bank of Japan pledged to maintain stimulus to stave off deflation, and the euro reached the weakest in 14 months as the European Central Bank offered a loan program. Sterling rose for the first week this month after Scotland rejected independence.

“The dollar is the No. 1 trend across all asset classes going into the end of the year,” Neil Azous, founder of Stamford, Connecticut-based research firm Rareview Macro LLC, said in a phone interview. “It’s back to trading interest-rate fundamentals.”

The U.S. Dollar Index, which Intercontinental Exchange Inc. uses the gauge to track the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, increased 0.6 percent to 84.796 at 5 p.m. New York time. The gauge touched 84.797, the highest since July 2010, and gained 0.7 percent on the week.

The dollar climbed as much as 0.7 percent to 109.46 yen, the highest since August 2008, before trading at 109.04 yen, up 0.3 percent. It has gained 1.6 percent this week. The greenback appreciated 0.7 percent to $1.2829 per euro, the strongest since July 2013. It appreciated 1 percent on the week. The euro declined 0.4 percent to 139.89 yen.

‘Coiled Spring’

“It tells you the dollar has been so depressed over the last few years, and now that depression is unwinding, like a coiled spring,” Douglas Borthwick, head of foreign exchange at New York brokerage Chapdelaine & Co., said by phone. “The Dollar Index will continue to stay bid as long as the Japanese continue to make motions of quantitative easing while Europe makes more noise about expanding their balance sheets.”

Currency-market volatility declined for a fourth day. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Global FX Volatility Index slipped to 7.29 percent, the least since Sept. 8 on a closing basis. It rose to 7.65 percent on Sept. 15, the highest since April 1. The average this year is 6.87 percent.

Fed policy makers, who met on Sept. 16-17, increased their median estimate for the federal funds rate to 1.375 percent at the end of next year, versus June’s forecast for 1.125 percent. The benchmark target rate has been in a range of zero to 0.25 percent since 2008 to support the economy.

Fed Bets

There’s a 60 percent likelihood the U.S. central bank will raise the rate to at least 0.5 percent by July 2015, futures trading data compiled by Bloomberg showed. That’s up from a 49 percent chance a month ago.

The ECB loaned 82.6 billion euros ($106.5 billion) to euro-area banks yesterday at a fixed interest rate of 0.15 percent in the first of its targeted longer-term refinancing operations. The so-called TLTRO is among a package of measures ECB President Mario Draghi said will boost the bank’s balance sheet by as much as 1 trillion euros to spur a slumping economy.

The U.S. Dollar Index has rallied 5.9 percent this year, set for the biggest annual gain since 2008, when the Fed began the first of three rounds of bond purchases under the quantitative-easing stimulus strategy. The gauge lost 4.2 percent in 2009.

The yen dropped this week against most major counterparts after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in Tokyo he won’t hesitate to adjust policy if needed. The central bank retained a pledge at a meeting this month to increase the monetary base at an annual pace of 60 trillion yen ($550 billion) to 70 trillion yen. It next meets on Oct. 6-7.

Net Shorts

Hedge funds and other large speculators trimmed their bets on a weaker yen. The difference in the number of futures wagers on a fall in the Japanese currency against the dollar versus those on a rise -- so-called net shorts -- was 83,182 contracts, compared with 100,673 a week ago, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington showed.

The dollar has risen 3.2 percent in the past month in a basket of 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The yen has lost 3.3 percent, the biggest decline, and the euro has fallen 1.1 percent. Sterling has gained 0.9 percent.

The pound strengthened after the outcome of the independence referendum was announced. Scotland saw a record turnout of more than 90 percent in some regions.

“The global markets’ confidence in the U.K. economy will likely be restored and regenerate demand for domestic companies and assets,” Neil Jones, the head of hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in London, said in an e-mailed comment. “The long-run pound-appreciation trend should continue.”

The pound advanced 0.1 percent to 78.76 pence per euro after appreciating to 78.10 pence, the strongest since July 2012. It has gained 1.2 percent on the week, the most since June. Sterling jumped 0.8 percent to $1.6525, the highest since Sept. 2, before trading at $1.6288, down 0.7 percent, trimming a weekly gain to 0.1 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Andrea Wong in New York at awong268@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net Greg Storey, Paul Cox

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader @ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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