TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $5,250.00 dollars or +52.50 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $5,500.00 dollars or +110.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $10,750.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=1769


Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=236&t=2302

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.

Stocks Finish Higher On Turnaround Tuesday


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Investors seemed to have trouble making up their minds Tuesday. Stocks rallied out of the gate, then languished for most of the day before sprinting into the close.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all ended the day higher, shaking off worries that certain technology stocks are overvalued.

The Dow ended higher for the fifth Tuesday in a row, reviving talk about Turnaround Tuesday. Last year, the Dow had an unprecedented run of 20 winning Tuesdays in a row. So far this year, it has gained on 11 of the past 15 Tuesdays.

Trading volume has been light this week, with many market participants taking time off for the Passover holiday. U.S. markets will be dark on Friday in honor of Good Friday.

With fewer shares trading hands, the market tends to be more volatile.

In addition, trading could be even more choppy this week because options contracts that were set to expire Friday will need to be settled earlier, said J.J. Kinahan, chief derivatives strategist at TD Ameritrade. That could cause big moves in the underlying securities.

Investors' nerves have been frayed by wild swings in so-called momentum stocks over the past few weeks. Biotech and internet stocks have been battered as investors worry that they have become overvalued following last year's big rally.

"What we have been witnessing is a nasty round of profit taking, as investors who rode the momentum higher are booking their gains and stepping aside," said David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial.

But at least one battered momentum stock was back in fashion Tuesday. Twitter (TWTR) shares surged more than 11% after the social media company announced that it had hired a former Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) executive to help run its consumer division and that it would acquire data startup Gnip.

The rally did not go unnoticed on StockTwits, the Twitter-like social network for traders.

"I think today is a significant event in $TWTR and this should not be taken lightly. We'll look back to today and point to it. Watch," said a user using the handle allstarcharts.

Another user suggested the rebound could bode well for other momentum stocks.

"$TWTR didn't twitter sort of lead this momo correction? maybe this pop is a leading indicator?," read a post by zv2013.

Still, other traders weren't so sure the rebound will last.

"$TWTR dream or for real?," asks Torpedo.

Geopolitical concerns were also at play as Ukrainian forces moved against pro-Russian separatists in the restive eastern Donetsk region.

Related: Ukraine hikes rates in bid to defend economy

Some traders on StockTwits were bracing for an escalation of the crisis, which has been simmering for weeks.

"$SPY Tension is brewing. Ukraine took back airfield, this is the beginning," wrote bkahuna123.

But others downplayed the geopolitical turmoil, pointing instead to the carnage in momentum stocks.

"$SPY Ukraine is an easy scapegoat but let's talk about the elephant in the room...the MOMO slaughter. Sorry, that is not just 'rotation,'" read a post by Scaletrader.

Meanwhile, corporate earnings are in focus this week with nine Dow companies and 10% of the S&P 500 set to release first quarter results.

After the market closed, Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) and Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) both reported quarterly earnings that beat analysts' expectations.

Overall, earnings in the first quarter are expected to fall 1.6% versus last year, according to FactSet Research.

"We're moving into the heart of earnings season now," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist for Wunderlich Securities. "We've got a lot of financial reporting this week. The bars are set low enough that earnings expectations are in line with reality."

Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500)and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500) both surprised investors Tuesday morning with better than expected results. This follows good news yesterday from Citigroup (C, Fortune 500). Thus far, the only major disappointment has been JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500).

In economic news, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in March, compared with the 0.1% rise economists had predicted. Excluding food and energy prices, the index increased 0.1%, matching expectations.

Related: Housing, food costs on the rise

A measure of manufacturing activity in the New York area unexpectedly fell in April. The so called "empire index" fell to 1.3 this month, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Economists were expecting an increase.

European markets are fell as tension in Ukraine weighed on sentiment. Asian markets closed with mixed results.





4:15 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages finished the session on a modestly higher note, but not before heavy selling pressure sent the Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%) for a test of its 200-day moving average. The S&P 500, meanwhile, added 0.7% with all ten sectors posting gains.

Equities climbed at the open with the advance built on the relative strength of biotechnology and other momentum names. Despite the solid early gains in those areas, the market began fading from its high as multiple reports pointed to an escalation of tensions in Ukraine. Specifically, a skirmish reportedly took place at the Kramatorsk airbase, but there were inconsistencies with regard to the number of injured. Some reports put the number of casualties between four and 11, while others said there were no casualties. After these reports made the rounds, Ukraine's acting President Oleksandr Turchynov was quoted by Interfax as saying the airfield has been retaken from pro-Russian militants.

With participants watching the news from Ukraine, stocks continued their retreat into the early afternoon, while bonds rallied. The defensive sentiment was also present in the foreign exchange market, where the yen strengthened to 101.50 against the dollar.

Strikingly, equity indices notched their lows just after 13:00 ET and spent the next three hours in a sharp rally back into the green in a move that was accompanied by the return of yen weakness that sent the dollar/yen pair to 101.85.

The rally in equities and the dollar/yen pair seemed to follow reports from Nikkei, suggesting sources think Japan will lower its economic outlook in its upcoming April 17 report. Such a headline presumably fueled some speculation that the downgrade will ultimately invite more policy stimulus from Japan, which was to the ears of a market that has cheered accommodative monetary policy for quite some time.

As a result of the afternoon rally, the S&P 500 returned to its morning high, while the Nasdaq clawed its way back into the green. Like the Nasdaq, biotechnology climbed off its lows, but the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 217.61, +2.24) was unable to reclaim its 200-day moving average. The biotech ETF added 1.0%, while the broader health care sector advanced 1.1%. Contributing to the sector's strength were shares of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 99.20, +2.06), which added 2.1% after the company beat on earnings.

Elsewhere, energy (+1.3%) and financials (+0.9%) spent the entire day trading ahead of the broader market, which facilitated the afternoon rebound.

Also of note, the utilities sector (+1.3%) ended ahead of the remaining groups after climbing steadily throughout the session. The rate-sensitive sector extended its year-to-date gain to 11.8%, which speaks to the overall cautious posture that has been exhibited by the market so far in 2014.

Treasuries posted gains, but retreated from their midsession highs during the afternoon rally in equities. The benchmark 10-yr yield slipped three basis points to 2.62%.

Participation was a bit above average as 771 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.

Reviewing today's data:
Related Stories

Dow Recovers to Positive Territory Following Mid-Session Tumble @ TheStreet.com
Wall Street ends higher but biotech selloff weighs @ Reuters
S&P 500 at record close @ MarketWatch
US STOCKS-Wall St sharply cuts gains as biotechs plunge @ Reuters

Consumer prices increased 0.2% in March, up from a 0.1% gain in February. The Briefing.com consensus expected the CPI to increase 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, core prices increased 0.2% in March and ended a string of three consecutive months of 0.1% gains. The consensus expected these prices to increase 0.1%. The surprises in both the headline and core indices were mainly the result of stronger-than-expected housing costs. The shelter index increased 0.3% in March and accounted for two-thirds of the gain in the core consumer price index. Housing costs increased 2.7% over the last 12 months, which was the largest yearly increase since March 2008. As expected, drought conditions in the west contributed to stronger-than-normal growth in food prices. Food costs increased 0.4% for a second consecutive month. Year-over-year, food prices are up 1.2%, which is the largest yearly gain since August 2012.
The Empire Manufacturing Survey for April registered a reading of 1.3, which was down from the prior month's reading of 5.6. Economists polled by Briefing.com expected the survey to improve to 7.5.
The April NAHB Housing Market Index rose to 47 from 46 while the Briefing.com consensus expected the reading to increase to 50.

Tomorrow, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be released at 7:00 ET, while March Housing Starts will be announced at 8:30 ET. March Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization will both be reported at 9:15 ET, while the day's data will be topped off with the Federal Reserve's Beige Book for April. The report will be released at 14:00 ET.

S&P 500 -0.3% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.9% YTD
Nasdaq Composite -3.4% YTD
Russell 2000 -3.7% YTD

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

June gold slid to a session low of $1284.40 per ounce in early morning action on economic data showing the consumer price index rising 0.2% in March, up from a 0.1% gain in February. The Briefing.com consensus expected the CPI to increase to 0.1%. The yellow metal then inched slightly higher for the remainder of the session and settled at $1299.90 per ounce, or 2.1% lower.
May silver also traded in the red today. It slumped to a session low of $19.22 per ounce moments after pit trade opened and eventually settled with a 2.6% loss at $19.48 per ounce.
May crude traded in negative territory ahead of tomorrow's release of EIA inventory data. In addition, reports indicated that a tanker was due to load 1 mln barrels of oil at the recently reopened Hariga oil port in eastern Libya. The energy component brushed a session low of $103.02 per barrel as floor trade opened and touched a session high of $104.05 per barrel by mid-morning action. It eventually settled with a 0.4% loss at $103.68 per barrel.
May natural gas rose to a session high of $4.63 per MMBtu in morning action but slipped to $4.53 per MMBtu in early afternoon floor trade. It then consolidated near the unchanged line and settled at $4.57 per MMBtu, or 0.2% higher.

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Another day of roller coaster action as the major indices have been in a recovery mode for the better part of the past two hours. That move, incidentally, has coincided with a renewed weakening in the yen that seemed to follow a headline suggesting sources think Japan will lower its economic outlook in the upcoming April 17 report. Such a headline may have presumably fueled some speculation that the downgrade will ultimately invite more policy stimulus from Japan, which implemented a higher consumption tax this month. The dollar/yen pair traded near 101.50 when the headline hit, and has climbed to 101.85 since then.

Also of note, the midsession reversal took place as the Nasdaq found support right above its 200-day moving average (3942). The tech-heavy index is now back in the green after being down as much as 1.9% at its lowest level of the session.

2:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The Dow and S&P 500 remain near their flat lines while the Nasdaq holds a loss of 0.4%. The unrest in Ukraine has been in focus throughout the session and the latest reports have quoted Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski as saying the U.S. is considering putting ground forces in Poland, which neighbors Ukraine.

Today's developments, including the faceoff at the air base in Kramatorsk, have served as a reminder that the stand-off between Russia and Ukraine remains volatile, making a quick resolution highly unlikely. Safe-haven flows have boosted the Treasury market, pressuring the benchmark 10-yr yield down to 2.62%.

1:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Recent action saw the major averages continue working their way back from session lows. The Dow (-0.2%) and S&P 500 (-0.2%) are now back right below their flat lines, while the Nasdaq (-1.1%) continues showing a larger decline as momentum names continue to weigh.

With regards to the broader market, the financial sector (+0.1%) is back in the green as it continues its outperformance. Top sector components trade in mixed fashion, while international financials lag. The SPDR S&P International Financial ETF (IPF 21.62, -0.75) holds a loss of 3.3%.

Elsewhere among heavily-weighted groups, health care (-0.2%) trades in line with the S&P 500, while consumer discretionary (-0.8%) and technology (-0.7%) lag.

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major indices hit new session lows shortly after 1:00 p.m. ET, but are currently bouncing off those worst levels of the day. There hasn't been much in the way of headlines to account for the bounce attempt, so it is likely a move predicated on technical factors.

Notably, the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 209.51, -5.86) has entered bear market territory, falling nearly 25% from its February high. A number of momentum stocks like Tesla (TSLA 187.09, -11.00), Twitter (TWTR 41.29, +0.42), and LinkedIn (LNKD 161.68, -4.10) are also in bear market territory, having declined 29%, 45%, and 37%, respectively, from their highs.

Separately, the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT 64.37, -1.08) carries a bear market distinction as well, having dropped 22% from its August 2013 high. To be sure, the Treasury market has defied most expectations this year and has certainly been a beneficiary of late from the stock market's weakness.

The 10-yr note is up 13 ticks, lowering its yield to 2.602%, which is the lower end of a trading range it has been locked in since late-January (when stocks were also struggling).

1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages hover near their session lows at midday, with the Nasdaq (-1.9%) and Russell 2000 (-1.8%) leading the slide. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.6%) and S&P 500 (-0.7%) display slimmer losses.

Even though equity indices displayed opening strength, the early gains faded quickly when weakness in biotechnology and other momentum names, combined with more worrisome reports out of Ukraine, knocked stocks from their highs.

The health care sector surged out of the gate and was up in excess of 1.0% during the initial minutes of action. Dow component Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 98.47, +1.33) factored into the outperformance after reporting a bottom-line beat this morning. Biotechnology also contributed to the early strength, but the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 208.39, -6.98) has become a drag on the broader market after being unable to make a sustained move above its 200-day moving average (219.70).

The weakness in biotechnology has once again been accompanied by noteworthy losses in other momentum names. At this juncture, Google (GOOG 519.23, -13.29), Facebook (FB 56.22, -2.69), and Yelp (YELP 59.00, -2.94) are down between 2.5% and 4.7%. The broader technology sector, meanwhile, holds a loss of 1.2%.

Also of note, the retreat from morning highs was accelerated by concerning headlines out of Ukraine, where skirmishes reportedly took place at the Kramatorsk airbase. After the reports made the rounds Ukraine's acting President Oleksandr Turchynov was quoted by Interfax as saying the airfield has been retaken from pro-Russian militants. It is worth mentioning that even though many reports have crossed the wires, they have been wildly inconsistent. For instance, some reports about the clashes have pegged the number of casualties between four and eleven, while others denied the presence of any casualties.

In any event, Treasuries have benefited from safe-haven flows. The 10-yr note is higher by 13 ticks with its yield down five basis points at 2.60%. Similarly, the foreign exchange market indicates the presence of caution as the yen trades at its best level against the dollar (101.53).

Reviewing today's data:

Consumer prices increased 0.2% in March, up from a 0.1% gain in February. The Briefing.com consensus expected the CPI to increase 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, core prices increased 0.2% in March and ended a string of three consecutive months of 0.1% gains. The consensus expected these prices to increase 0.1%. The surprises in both the headline and core indices were mainly the result of stronger-than-expected housing costs. The shelter index increased 0.3% in March and accounted for two-thirds of the gain in the core consumer price index. Housing costs increased 2.7% over the last 12 months, which was the largest yearly increase since March 2008. As expected, drought conditions in the west contributed to stronger-than-normal growth in food prices. Food costs increased 0.4% for a second consecutive month. Year-over-year, food prices are up 1.2%, which is the largest yearly gain since August 2012.
The Empire Manufacturing Survey for April registered a reading of 1.3, which was down from the prior month's reading of 5.6. Economists polled by Briefing.com expected the survey to improve to 7.5.
The April NAHB Housing Market Index rose to 47 from 46 while the Briefing.com consensus expected the reading to increase to 50.

12:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain near their lows with the S&P 500 trading down 0.6%. After starting on a modestly higher note, the stock market has encountered a reversal of fortunes with many of the names that drove the early rally, leading to the downside.

The biotech space, which has been volatile since late February, has repeated its recent pattern of a surge at the open, followed by a slide to fresh lows. Today's retreat has distanced the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 210.70, -4.67) from its 200-day moving average (219.72) after a brief appearance above that level in the morning.

Despite the weakness in biotechnology, the health care sector (-0.7%) essentially trades in-line with the broader market thanks to a 1.1% gain in Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 98.22, +1.08) following better than expected quarterly results.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] There hasn't been much letup to the selling pressure as the major averages hover at their recently-established lows. Earlier, we mentioned that the S&P 500 (-0.5%) was unable to make it back to its 50-day moving average at the open, and since then, the index has also slipped below its 100-day moving average (1829).

With momentum names driving the retreat, consumer discretionary (-1.0%) and technology (-0.8%) are the weakest sectors of the day. On the upside, energy (+0.3%) and utilities (+0.6%) continue holding gains. Notably, the utilities sector has padded its year-to-date advance and is now higher by 11.0% since the end of 2013.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain below their flat lines with the Nasdaq (-0.9%) and Russell 2000 (-0.9%) showing noteworthy losses, while the Dow (-0.1%) and S&P 500 (-0.1%) hover just below their flat lines.

Equity indices have yet to make a return into positive territory after weakness in momentum names drove the averages lower.

It is worth mentioning that the situation in Ukraine is likely contributing to the defensive posture as reports of skirmishes at the Kramatorsk airbase have been making the rounds. While the details remain unclear (including the number of casualties), Ukraine's acting President Oleksandr Turchynov was quoted by Interfax as saying the airfield has been retaken from pro-Russian militants.

Treasuries are currently hovering just below their session highs after starting the session little changed. The 10-yr note is higher by eight ticks with its yield down three basis points at 2.62%. The cautious posture has also manifested itself in the foreign exchange market, where the yen trades near its best levels of the session against the dollar (101.65).

10:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market has retreated from its early high with the Nasdaq (-0.9%) leading the slide. The weakness in the tech-heavy index came about as biotechnology and other momentum names surrendered their opening gains. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 214.09, -1.15) is lower by 0.5% after being rejected by its 200-day moving average (219.73), which is a level the ETF has struggled with for the past three sessions.

Also of note, the S&P 500 made a run at its 50-day (1846) moving average, but put in a session high less than three points below that noteworthy level before heading to a fresh session low. Five sectors continue holding gains, but health care (+0.1%) has been overtaken by energy (+0.6%) for the lead.

Financials (+0.1%) continue trading ahead of the broader market, while consumer discretionary (-0.6%) and technology (-0.8%) lag.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Commodities are mostly lower this morning, many of which were weak or near session lows just ahead of the CPI data
Just ahead of the CPI data, gold was down $35/oz. Following the data, both gold and silver futures showed muted/slightly higher reactions
June gold is now -1.9% at $1302/oz, while May silver is -2.4% at $19.54/oz
May copper has been in the red all day and sold off further in early morning trade, falling from $3.04 to as low as $2.97/lb
May copper is now -2.1% at $2.98/lb.
Crude oil has been in the red all day so far. Just ahead of the open of floor trading, crude began to rally from $103/barrel and almost hit $104/barrel.
However, it's still remained in negative territory and is now -0.2% at $103.88/barrel
Natural gas lost steam overnight, but reversed that weakness after buyers stepped in and pushed May nat gas 2.7% higher to $4.63/MMBtu. May NG is now +1.1% at $4.61/MMBtu

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain near their best levels of the session with the S&P 500 trading higher by 0.6%.

The health care sector (+1.0%) remains in the lead, followed by financials (+1.0%), utilities (+0.8%), and energy (+0.7%). On the downside, the telecom services sector (-0.1%) hovers just below its flat line.

Just reported, the April NAHB Housing Market Index rose to 47 from 46 while the Briefing.com consensus expected the reading to increase to 50.

9:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages began the trading day on a modestly higher note with the S&P 500 (+0.5%) pacing the early advance. All ten sectors display early gains with health care (+1.0%) trading well ahead of the remaining groups thanks to gains in the biotech space (IBB +1.5%). Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 98.89, +1.75) has also made a contribution to the early strength. The stock trades up 1.8% after beating earnings estimates.

Outside of health care, only financials (+0.6%) and utilities (+0.6%) trade ahead of the S&P 500.

Treasuries remain little changed with the 10-yr yield at 2.65%.

The NAHB Housing Market Index for April will be released at 10:00 ET.

9:13 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.00. The stock market is on track for a modestly higher open as futures on the S&P 500 trade four points above fair value. Overnight, the major global indices traded in mixed fashion, with markets in China (-1.4%) and Hong Kong (-1.6%) underperforming after an NDRC researcher said China's first quarter GDP (to be released this evening) is likely to miss to the 7.5% target. Meanwhile, the major European indices trade little changed with trading volumes on the light side.

Domestically, participants received a couple economic data points. Consumer prices increased 0.2% in March while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, core prices also increased 0.2% and ended a string of three consecutive months of 0.1% gains. The consensus expected these prices to increase 0.1%.

The surprises in both the headline and core indices were mainly the result of stronger-than-expected housing costs. The shelter index increased 0.3% in March and accounted for two-thirds of the gain in the core consumer price index. Housing costs increased 2.7% over the last 12 months, which was the largest yearly increase since March 2008. As expected, drought conditions in the west contributed to stronger-than-normal growth in food prices. Food costs increased 0.4% for a second consecutive month. Year-over-year, food prices are up 1.2%, which is the largest yearly gain since August 2012.

Separately, the Empire Manufacturing Survey for April registered a reading of 1.3, which was down from the prior month's reading of 5.6. Economists polled by Briefing.com expected the survey to improve to 7.5.

On the earnings front, Dow components Coca-Cola (KO 39.52, +0.79) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 99.20, +2.06) are both indicated to open higher after reporting their quarterly results. Coca-Cola reported earnings in-line with estimates, while Johnson & Johnson beat expectations.

Treasuries are currently flat with the 10-yr yield just under 2.65%.

9:01 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.00. The S&P 500 futures trade four points above fair value.

Asian markets ended on a mixed note with markets in China (-1.4%) and Hong Kong (-1.6%) underperforming after an NDRC researcher said China's first quarter GDP (to be released this evening) is likely to miss to the 7.5% target. Also of note, the minutes from the latest RBA meeting maintained their neutral stance, reiterating that a period of stable rates is a prudent approach.

Economic data was limited to just a few releases. China's M2 Money Stock increased 12.1% year-over-year (expected 13.0%, prior 13.1%), while New Loans rose to CNY1.05 trillion from CNY645 billion (expected CNY1.00 trillion). India's Wholesale Price Index jumped 5.7% year-over-year (expected 5.3%, prior 4.68%). Singapore's Retail Sales rose 3.0% month-over-month (prior 0.6%), while the year-over-year reading fell 9.5% (previous 0.1%).

Japan's Nikkei gained 0.6%, receiving support from growth-sensitive names. Toho Zinc and Nippon Electric Glass surged 6.9% and 4.9%, respectively. SoftBank also outperformed, climbing 3.4%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 1.6%, retreating steadily throughout the session. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp and Lenovo Group lost 3.9% and 3.1%, respectively.
China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.4% after being pressured by financials. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China lost 1.1%, while China Vanke tumbled 2.1%.

Major European indices are little changed while Italy's MIB (-0.8%) lags. Participants received several data points. Eurozone trade surplus narrowed to EUR13.90 billion from EUR14.70 billion, as expected. Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment fell to 43.2 from 46.6 (expected 45.0), while the Current Conditions component improved to 59.5 from 51.3 (consensus 51.8). Great Britain's CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month, while the year-over-year reading increased 1.6%. Both figures met expectations. Also of note, Input PPI fell 6.5% year-over-year (consensus -6.1%, prior -5.8%), while output PPI increased 0.5% year-over-year (expected 0.3%, previous 0.6%).

Among news of note, Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Obama spoke on the phone last evening regarding the situation in Ukraine, but the call did not produce much in terms of results.

Germany's DAX is lower by 0.5% with Merck leading the weakness. The drug maker holds a loss of 1.3%. On the upside, utility network provider RWE is higher by 0.5%.
Great Britain's FTSE holds a loss of 0.1%. Miner Rio Tinto is among the weakest performers, down 2.4%. Utility names outperform, with National Grid and United Utilities Group both up near 2.0%.
France's CAC is higher by 0.2%. Consumer names Danone, L'Oreal, and Pernod Ricard outperform with gains between 1.2% and 2.7%. On the downside, ArcelorMittal holds a loss of 1.7%.
Italy's MIB trades down 0.8%. BMPS leads the retreat with a loss of 8.9% amid reports the bank will need to raise more capital than originally planned.

The February net long-term TIC flows report indicated an $85.70 billion inflow of foreign capital into U.S. denominated assets. This followed the prior month's revised $7.70 billion inflow.

8:33 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.50. The S&P 500 futures trade four points above fair value.

Total CPI for March increased 0.2% versus the Briefing.com consensus estimate that called for a 0.1% increase. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was also up 0.2%. That was above the Briefing.com consensus estimate, which called for an increase of 0.1%.

Separately, the Empire Manufacturing Survey for April registered a reading of 1.3, which was down from the prior month's reading of 5.6. Economists polled by Briefing.com expected the survey to improve to 7.5.

7:58 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.20. U.S. equity futures trade little changed amid cautious action overseas. The S&P 500 futures trade four points above fair value.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mixed. Japan's Nikkei +0.6%, China's Shanghai Composite -1.4%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng -1.6%.
In regional economic data:
China's M2 Money Stock increased 12.1% year-over-year (expected 13.0%, prior 13.1%), while New Loans rose to CNY1.05 trillion from CNY645 billion (expected CNY1.00 trillion).
India's Wholesale Price Index jumped 5.7% year-over-year (expected 5.3%, prior 4.68%).
Singapore's Retail Sales rose 3.0% month-over-month (prior 0.6%), while the year-over-year reading fell 9.5% (previous 0.1%).
In news:
According to an NDRC researcher, China's first quarter GDP (to be released this evening) is likely to miss to the 7.5% target.
The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes from its latest meeting, but the reaction in the foreign exchange market was muted. The central bank maintained its neutral stance in the minutes, reiterating that a period of stability in rates is the most prudent policy approach.

Major European indices are little changed. France's CAC +0.3%, Germany's DAX -0.3%, and Great Britain's FTSE is flat. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB -0.8% and Spain's IBEX is flat.
Participants received several data points:
Eurozone trade surplus narrowed to EUR13.90 billion from EUR14.70 billion, as expected.
Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment fell to 43.2 from 46.6 (expected 45.0), while the Current Conditions component improved to 59.5 from 51.3 (consensus 51.8).
Great Britain's CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month, while the year-over-year reading increased 1.6%. Both figures met expectations. Also of note, Input PPI fell 6.5% year-over-year (consensus -6.1%, prior -5.8%), while output PPI increased 0.5% year-over-year (expected 0.3%, previous 0.6%).
Among news of note:
Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Obama spoke on the phone last evening regarding the situation in Ukraine, but the call did not produce much in terms of results.

In U.S. corporate news:

Coca-Cola (KO 39.20, +0.47): +1.2% after reporting in-line earnings and revenue.
IBM (IBM 195.90, -1.87): -1.0% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to 'Neutral' from 'Buy.'
Infosys (INFY 54.21, -1.37): -2.5% despite beating on earnings and revenue and raising its dividend payout ratio to 40% of post-tax profits versus the prior ratio of 30%.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 99.00, +1.86): +1.9% after reporting an earnings beat on in-line revenue.
Morgan Stanley (MS 29.81, +0.75): +2.6% after Bank of America/Merrill Lynch upgraded the stock to 'Buy' from 'Neutral.'

March CPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%) and the Empire Manufacturing Survey (consensus 7.5) for April will be released at 8:30 ET, while the February Net Long-Term TIC Flows report will cross the wires at 9:00 ET. The day's data will be topped off with the NAHB Housing Market Index (consensus 50) for April, which will be released at 10:00 ET.

6:21 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.00.

6:21 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...13996.81...+86.70...+0.60%. Hang Seng...22671.26...-367.50...-1.60%.

6:21 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6562.48...-21.30...-0.30%. DAX...9263.23...-75.90...-0.80%.

U.S. Stocks Rebound as Treasuries Climb, Commodities Slip

By Lu Wang and Callie Bost Apr 15, 2014 4:48 PM ET

U.S. stocks climbed for a second day as optimism grew over corporate earnings and the Nasdaq Composite Index (CCMP) rebounded after falling near its average level for the past 200 days. Treasuries rose amid increasing tensions in Ukraine, while emerging markets slumped on signs China’s economy is slowing.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.3 percent at 4 p.m., erasing a 1.9 percent drop earlier. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) rose 0.7 percent as Coca-Cola Co. and Johnson & Johnson rallied on earnings reports. The yield on 30-year Treasuries slipped three basis points to 3.46 percent, touching the lowest level in nine months. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index tumbled 1.2 percent, the most in a month. Gold dropped 2 percent. Japan’s currency erased gains versus the dollar after Nikkei said the government will downgrade its economic assessment in a report this week.

Ukraine unleashed an offensive to dislodge militants from towns in its eastern Donetsk region as Russia’s prime minister said the country risks civil war. China’s money supply grew less than forecast and the broadest measure of credit fell 19 percent from a year earlier in March before data that’s expected to show economic growth slowed in the first quarter.

“Stocks are having meaningful moves in both directions because people are nervous on both sides,” Michael James, a Los Angeles-based managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities Inc., said in a phone interview. “Subjectivity plays such a pivotal role, and emotions, in what’s been going on in this market that it’s hard to pinpoint what causes a turn in the direction.”

Moving Average

The Nasdaq Composite fell to within four points of its 200-day moving average of 3,942.50 today before reversing. The last time the gauge dropped below that level, considered an important threshold by technical analysts, was Dec. 31, 2012. That’s the fourth-longest streak in the gauge’s 43-year history, according to Bespoke Investment Group LLC. The Nasdaq, along with other benchmark indexes, fell through 10-day through 100-day averages last week.

The S&P 500 has dropped 2.5 percent from its April 2 record and posted its worst weekly loss since 2012 as selling from Internet and biotechnology stocks, the best performers in a five-year rally, spread to the broader market. The Nasdaq Composite of technology shares sank 3.1 percent last week, and is down 7.4 percent from its March peak.

The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index rose 0.9 percent today, rebounding from an earlier 3.7 percent drop. The Dow Jones Internet Composite Index added 1.2 percent after sinking 2.3 percent earlier.

Higher Valuations

While equity returns will slow in coming years because of relatively higher valuations, the selloff in technology stocks will likely be contained, according to Cliff Asness, founder and chief investment officer at AQR Capital Management.

“There’s a difference between an expensive market and a bubble,” Asness said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers.” “When you say something is going to return less than it used to, that doesn’t mean it’s going to crash. So I think we are poised for lower returns over the next 10 to 20 years from here.”

The S&P 500 trades at 17 times its members’ reported earnings. While that’s near its highest valuation in four years, it’s close to its weekly average since 1937, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Manufacturing in the New York region grew at a slower pace in April, a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed. The index dropped to 1.29 from 5.61 in March. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted it would increase to 8. Positive readings signal expansion in New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut.

Earnings Season

Separate data showed the cost of living in the U.S. rose more than projected in March as food and rents became more expensive, helping ease Fed concerns that inflation is too low.

Coca-Cola gained 3.7 percent as global volume sales increased. Johnson & Johnson climbed 2.1 percent to a record as the company raised its forecast for the year.

Yahoo! Inc. and Intel Corp. advanced in extended trading after reporting quarterly results. Intel climbed 2.1 percent after earnings topped analyst estimates and the company projected second-quarter sales that may exceed some forecasts. Yahoo jumped 7.8 percent as sales surpassed estimates.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., China’s largest e-commerce company that is 24 percent owned by Yahoo, posted its fifth straight quarterly profit gain on surging sales ahead of a potential U.S. initial public offering.

Sorting Issues

Profit at S&P 500 companies probably fell 0.9 percent in the first quarter, analysts predict. At the beginning of the year, they had projected a 6.6 percent increase. Sales increased 2.6 percent in the first quarter, the estimates show.

“You’re in the process right now, in the short run, of sorting through earnings, as well as geopolitical and economic issues,” Chad Morganlander, a Florham Park, New Jersey-based portfolio manager for Stifel Nicolaus & Co., which oversees more than $150 billion, said in a phone interview. “There’s a tremendous amount of volatility and uncertainty because of concerns over Russia and Ukraine. That’s going to shift the winds of the market on a minute-by-minute basis.”

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, a gauge for U.S. stock volatility known as the VIX, dropped 3.1 percent to 15.61 today. The gauge is up 14 percent this year.

Treasury 30-year bond yields fell three basis points to 3.46 percent. Benchmark 10-year yields slipped two basis points to 2.63 percent.

Ukraine Crisis

Emerging-market stocks fell for a third day. Ukrainian units backed by armored personnel carriers blocked all approaches to the town of Slovyansk, Russia’s state-run RIA Novosti news service reported, citing an unidentified pro-Russian activist. Two militants were wounded when an airport in Kramatorsk was stormed, forcing the protesters to retreat, according to RIA.

The government in Kiev started the operation after between its forces and pro-Russian separatists turned deadly this week. The U.S. and the European Union also deliberated deepening sanctions against Russia, which they blame for stoking the unrest, as Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin remained at odds over who was at fault.

Russia’s Micex Index (INDEXCF) slid 2.5 percent, while the ruble slipped 0.8 percent against the dollar to a three-week low. The Finance Ministry canceled its second ruble bond auction in a row, citing current market conditions.

Ukraine’s hryvnia jumped 9.2 percent versus the dollar after the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 3 percentage points to 9.5 percent.

European Stocks

Policy makers in Kiev said the rate increase, which is their first in six years and the biggest since Russia’s debt default in 1998, is aimed at stemming currency declines that threaten to boost inflation and disrupt money markets.

The Stoxx 600 fluctuated during the day, slumping during the final hours to finish 1 percent lower amid developments in Ukraine. The gauge rose 0.3 percent yesterday, after tumbling 3.1 percent last week.

SABMiller Plc (SAB) lost 2.3 percent after world’s second-largest brewer reported beer revenue that missed estimates and said it’s considering options for its stake in hotel and casino operator Tsogo Sun Holdings Ltd. L’Oreal SA (OR) gained 1.1 percent after the world’s largest cosmetics maker posted an increase in first-quarter revenue.

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of Chinese shares in Hong Kong dropped 2.1 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) lost 1.4 percent, the biggest decline in a month.

China’s Economy

Aggregate financing was 2.07 trillion yuan ($333 billion) in March, the People’s Bank of China said in Beijing today, down from 2.55 trillion yuan a year ago. M2, China’s broadest gauge of money supply, rose 12.1 percent from a year earlier, compared with the 13 percent median estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg News survey and 13.3 percent in February.

China’s gross domestic product grew 1.5 percent from the previous three months, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of data released tomorrow, down from 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter. That indicates a sharper deceleration than the median projection for 7.3 percent growth from a year earlier, down from 7.7 percent.

“You have this huge uncertainty from the geopolitical front and China, which is pulling the market in a negative direction,” Witold Bahrke, who helps oversee $55 billion as a senior strategist at PFA Asset Management in Copenhagen, said in a phone interview. “Sentiment is still tilted to the negative direction after the escalation in Ukraine at the weekend.”

Metals Slump

Copper dropped 1.9 percent to $6,541 a metric ton. China is the biggest buyer of the metal. Nickel declined 0.7 percent, falling for the first time in 12 days. Palladium retreated 1.8 percent, following a 5.7 percent gain in five days.

Gold declined 2 percent to $1,300.30 an ounce, the biggest drop in 16 weeks, on concern that a pickup in U.S. consumer prices will give the Fed leeway to further scale back stimulus.

The yen rose against most currencies as investor demand for safety increased. It erased gains versus the dollar after Nikkei said the government will downgrade its economic assessment in a report this week. The yen has rallied 2.6 percent this year in a basket of 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes.

Australia’s currency declined 0.8 percent to 93.52 U.S. cents after appreciating to 94.61 cents on April 10, the highest level since Nov. 8. Minutes of the Reserve Bank’s latest meeting showed policy makers reiterated interest rates will stay on hold.

Italy’s 10-year yield fell seven basis points to 3.11 percent, reaching the lowest level since Bloomberg started collecting the data in 1993. Local buyers bid for more than 6.72 billion euros ($9.3 billion) of an Italian six-year, index-linked bond yesterday. The rate on similar-maturity Spanish securities fell five basis points to 3.09 percent.

To contact the reporters on this story: Lu Wang in New York at lwang8@bloomberg.net; Callie Bost in New York at cbost2@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Lynn Thomasson at lthomasson@bloomberg.net Jeff Sutherland

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader @ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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