TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $3,720.00 dollars or +37.20 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $2,000.00 dollars or +40.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $5,720.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the chat room. You can read today's chat room logs for details about each one of my trades via price action trading from entry to exit (e.g. time, price, contract size) along with price action commentary as the trade traversed to its completion...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=1768


Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=236&t=2302

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Bounce Back...Somewhat


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
The stock market today felt a bit like a game of al chairs with no one quite sure where it would end up.

Stocks ultimately finished higher, but about an hour before the close all bets were off as a late wave of selling hit the biotech sector hard pushing the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF into negative territory and dragging the Nasdaq with it, before both recovered.

In the end the Nasdaq finished up 0.60%, while the Dow and S&P 500 closed just shy of 1% gains. All three indexes are still down for the year.

"It looked like at the end of the day institutional investors were waiting to see if the rally fell apart but the Dow and S&P stayed positive. When they saw that, the Nasdaq closed with a gain," said Sam Stovall, chief equity analyst at S&P Capital IQ.

Much of the recent choppiness in the markets has been driven by so called "momentum stocks", the tech and biotech companies that had an incredible run in the past year, but have fallen sharply in recent days.

But not today. New media companies like Facebook (FB, Fortune 500), Twitter (TWTR), Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500), Netflix (NFLX) and biotech powerhouses Biogen Idec (BIIB, Fortune 500), Gilead Sciences (GILD, Fortune 500), and Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) all gained some ground.

"It's nice to see some green today, but investors are still shell shocked over what they've witnessed," said Brian Fenske, head of sales trading at ITG.

Right now it's all about earnings season.

Related: Can earnings save the day?

"As important as the actual earnings are, just as important will be how the stocks react. If Google beats expectations but the stock sells off, that's a worry," Fenske added. Google (GOOG, Fortune 500), Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) and Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) report earnings later this week.

Traders expect more volatility as earnings season kicks into full swing over the next few weeks. It's interesting to note that CNNMoney's Fear & Greed Index is still solidly in "extreme fear" mode.

The big earnings star today was Citigroup (C, Fortune 500). It jumped more than 3%, helping ignite the morning rally in stocks. The third largest U.S. bank beat analysts' forecasts for first quarter earnings. Profits rose 4% from the same period last year.

Earnings from Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), and Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) come later in the week.

But one trader on StockTwits was skeptical of Citigroup's performance. JJSinghSTARR suggested that it had more to do with accounting than actual earnings,"$C For management... I'm not sure how smart it is to have these loan "write-ups" just after you failed a stress test. Counter intuitive?" Citigroup's capital plan failed a Federal Reserve stress test a few weeks ago.

MaxDamage echoed JJSinghSTARR,"$C Another day, another set of dodgy bank numbers. Look how they beat, and then you can see through the smoke and mirrors."

Related: Invest in the next Facebook ... for a few bucks

Another stock that took a pounding on Friday, but bounced back today was Herbalife (HLF). Shares of the multi-level marketer plunged after a report in the Financial Times saying the that the Department of Justice and the FBI had launched a criminal probe of the company. But Herbalife (HLF) said it had "no knowledge of any ongoing investigation by the DOJ or the FBI."

OPTIONSPAIDFORMYS550 was pessimistic, "$HLF The REAL question here is how SOON before one of the government agencies mentioned in Friday's article confirms the investigation."

But there were plenty of Herbalife (HLF) defenders like KiddoTrader,"HLF Bulls, don't be intimidated by some Ackman puppets on this board... use your common sense." Hedge fund activist Bill Ackman is a vocal critic of the company and has a billion dollar bet that the stock will go to zero.

Snoooop40 is another Herbalife (HLF) fan, "You may be unsatisfied with existing laws regarding MLM's (multi-level marketers), but $HLF will be found to be operating legally. The MUTHA of all bear-traps. Gulp."

On the economic front, March retail sales posted their biggest gain since September 2012, up 1.1% as shoppers started returning to stores after the frigid winter months. Sales were exceptionally strong at auto dealers.

One of the biggest gainers in the S&P500 today was Edwards Lifesciences. (EW)That's because the company was granted a preliminary injunction limiting the sale of Medtronic's (MDT, Fortune 500) competing heart valve system. Medtronic (MDT, Fortune 500) slid on the news.

Related: Investors dip a toe back into emerging markets

European markets closed higher, but there was an air of caution regarding the growing threat of U.S. and European sanctions against Russia.

Russian stocks and the ruble dropped as the continuing strife between Russia and Ukraine ramped up to a fever pitch. Pro-Russian protesters seized a police station in Ukraine and the government threatened to oust them with a "full scale anti-terrorist operation."

"Even before this, the U.S. and Europe were threatening more sanctions as Russia forces remain amassed on the Ukraine border," wrote currency strategist Marc Chandler in a market report for Brown Brothers Harriman. "The position and weapons of those forces ... is leading NATO to conclude that Putin is seeking the full occupation of Ukraine."

Asian markets closed mixed.





4:10 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages finished the Monday session on a modestly higher note, but they ended below their best levels of the day after volatility during the last two hours of action forced the indices to test their flat lines. The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, while the Nasdaq added 0.6% after being up as much as 1.3%.

The stock market began the session on an upbeat note, casting aside renewed concerns about the situation in Ukraine, where the country's army was called in over the weekend to deal with pro-Russian separatists in several cities in the Southeast.

Instead, the market rallied in the morning after Citigroup's (C 47.67, +1.99) above-consensus quarterly results, combined with a better-than-expected March Retail Sales report, invited buyers into the mix. In all likelihood, the early advance was assisted by some short-covering as many areas that displayed weakness in recent sessions, showed relative strength this morning.

Biotechnology was among the early leaders and the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 215.37, -0.08) made a run at its 200-day moving average. The ETF made a brief appearance above that noteworthy level before spending the afternoon in a steady retreat that placed the group back in the red. The health care sector, meanwhile, added 0.5%.

Other momentum names traded in similar fashion to biotech with the likes of Google (GOOG 532.52, +1.92), Facebook (FB 58.89, +0.36), LinkedIn (LNKD 165.78, 0.00), and Yelp (YELP 61.94, +0.22) showing early strength before retreating from their highs during afternoon action. The technology sector (+1.1%), meanwhile, held up relatively well, but it too ended below its session high.

Elsewhere among cyclical groups, energy (+1.3%) outperformed throughout the session with support from Dow components Chevron (CVX 118.70, +1.67) and ExxonMobil (XOM 97.86, +1.14), both of which posted gains close to 1.3% apiece. The sector ended in the lead while crude oil rose 0.4% to $104.05/bbl.

The other commodity-related sector, materials, ended in line with the broader market. Miners and steelmakers displayed strength, with Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 24.52, +0.30) and Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX 47.41, +0.56) both gaining 1.2%. For its part, gold futures advanced 0.7% to $1327.70/ozt.

Treasuries posted slim losses, sending the benchmark 10-yr yield higher by one basis point to 2.64%.

Participation was below average as less than 680 million shares changed hands at the New York Stock Exchange.

Retail sales increased 1.1% in March after increasing an upwardly revised 0.7% (from 0.3%) in February. The Briefing.com consensus expected retail sales to increase 1.0%. As expected from the motor vehicle sales data, auto sales contributed significantly to overall sales growth. Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers increased 3.1% in March after increasing 2.5% in February. Excluding autos, retail sales still increased a solid 0.7% in March, up from a 0.3% gain in February. The consensus expected these sales to increase 0.5%. Sales were strong all around, but there wasn't much to suggest that the acceleration in spending was the result of pent-up demand from delayed winter spending. The March employment report showed a 0.7% increase in aggregate wages, which exactly matched spending after stripping out autos.

Business inventories increased 0.4% for a second consecutive month in February. The Briefing.com consensus expected inventories to increase 0.6%. Total inventories consist of manufacturers, merchant wholesalers, and retailers. Both manufacturers (0.7%) and wholesalers (0.5%) inventories were announced prior to the release. Only retailer inventories, which were flat in February after increasing 0.3% in January, were unknown.

Tomorrow, March CPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%) and the Empire Manufacturing Survey (consensus 7.5) for April will be released at 8:30 ET, while the February Net Long-Term TIC Flows report will cross the wires at 9:00 ET. The day's data will be topped off with the NAHB Housing Market Index (consensus 50) for April, which will be released at 10:00 ET.

S&P 500 -1.0% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -2.4% YTD
Nasdaq Composite -3.7% YTD
Russell 2000 -4.0% YTD

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Precious metals traded higher today despite a stronger dollar index. The move came on continued tension in Ukraine, specifically news over the weekend that the country's army exchanged gunfire with pro-Russian separatists in several cities.
June gold brushed a session low of $1318.70 per ounce moments after floor trade opened and climbed as high as $1331.40 per ounce by late morning action. It eventually settled with a 0.4% gain at $1327.70 per ounce.
May silver lifted off its session low of $19.72 per ounce set in early morning action and broke into positive territory. It touched a session high of $20.08 per ounce and settled with a 0.4% gain at $20.01 per ounce.
May crude oil rose above $104.00 per barrel on the Ukrainian conflict. The energy component came off its session low of $103.34 per barrel and recovered into positive territory in morning pit trade. It brushed a session high of $104.19 per barrel and settled at $104.05 per barrel, or 0.4% higher.
May natural gas, on the other hand, traded in negative territory in a tight range between $4.54 and $4.58 per MMBtu. Unable to find buyer support, it settled with a 1.3% loss at $4.56 per MMBtu.

2:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.6% with one hour remaining in today's session. The benchmark index enters the final hour of action after recent weakness in the biotech space (IBB -0.8%) knocked the benchmark index into the middle of its range.

It is worth mentioning that the recent losses in biotechnology were accompanied by selling activity in other momentum names. For instance, Facebook (FB 58.61, +0.08), Google (GOOG 534.01, +3.41), and Netflix (NFLX 327.42, +0.71) have retreated from their highs and now trade with gains between 0.2% and 0.7%.

2:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Recent action saw some weakness in the biotechnology space, pressuring the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 213.89, -1.56) to a new session low. The health care sector, meanwhile, has turned negative and now trades lower by 0.1%.

Biotech's retreat has put some pressure on the Nasdaq, which has trimmed its gain to 0.3%. The S&P 500 (+0.5%) has also retreated from its best levels of the day, but the benchmark index trades ahead of the Nasdaq at this juncture.

With stocks retreating from their best levels of the session, demand for volatility protection has pushed the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 16.91, -0.12) to an afternoon high.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Quiet afternoon action continues with the major averages holding their recent levels.

Even though most sectors continue showing month-to-date losses, today's advance has helped two groups turn positive for the month. Consumer staples (+0.7%) and energy (+1.2%) now sport respective April gains of 0.1% and 0.5%, while the utilities sector (+0.5%) has extended its April gain to 1.1%. Furthermore, the utilities sector remains atop the 2014 leaderboard with a year-to-date gain of 10.2%.

Utilities notwithstanding, energy, health care, and materials are the only three groups trading higher this year with gains between 0.3% and 0.7%.

On the downside, the consumer discretionary sector remains the weakest performer of the year, down 6.3%.

1:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] It has been a good day so far for the stock market, but it's a stretch still to say it's "all good" again. To that end, the S&P 500 is up 0.8% at this juncture, yet both the S&P financials sector (+0.7%) and Dow Jones Transportation Average (+0.6%) are trailing the action.

With economic optimism rising a bit after the better than expected March Retail Sales report, and sentiment picking up a bit with Citigroup's (C 47.44, +1.76) better than expected earnings report, one might have thought both groups would have been relative strength leaders today. Isn't happening -- at least not yet anyway.

That underperformance combined with the relatively low volume at the NYSE, and the lack of concerted selling interest in the Treasury market after a strong run there, has taken a bit of shine off today's rebound effort in the stock market. The 10-yr note is currently off just five ticks, bumping its yield up to 2.645%.

12:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] At midday, the major averages hold solid gains with the Nasdaq (+1.1%) pacing the advance while the Dow (+1.0%) and S&P 500 (+1.0%) follow not far behind.

Equity indices began the day on an upbeat note and carried that strength into the afternoon despite the presence of cautious sentiment in Europe, where Ukraine returned into focus over the weekend. Specifically, the country's army exchanged gunfire with pro-Russian separatists in several cities, which invited speculation that additional Russian involvement in the situation may be on the way.

European equities, meanwhile, were able to shake off the early weakness with help from U.S. index futures, which rallied following above-consensus quarterly results from Citigroup (C 47.57, +1.89). In addition, the market received another noteworthy boost ahead of the open from a better-than-expected Retail Sales report (+1.1% versus Briefing.com consensus 1.0%).

Given the encouraging pre-market news, equities opened broadly higher with some of last week's laggards putting a dent in their recent losses. Biotechnology displayed early strength and the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 218.40, +2.95) trades higher by 1.4% as it attempts to regain its 200-day moving average (219.54).

Elsewhere, the technology sector (+1.2%) outperforms with the likes of Google (GOOG 541.10, +10.50), Facebook (FB 59.49, +0.96), LinkedIn (LNKD 166.91, +1.13), and Yelp (YELP 63.15, +1.43) up between 0.7% and 2.4%.

Similarly, the discretionary space (+1.0%) is benefitting from a rebound in Amazon.com (AMZN 315.71, +3.98) and Netflix (NFLX 331.77, +5.06), both of which faced aggressive selling in recent sessions.

Interestingly, the financial sector (+0.8%) is struggling to keep up with the broader market despite a 4.2% gain in the shares of Citigroup. JPMorgan Chase (JPM 54.92, -0.38) weighs, trading lower by 0.7%.

Treasuries are currently near their lows with the benchmark 10-yr yield at 2.65%.

Reviewing today's data:

Retail sales increased 1.1% in March after increasing an upwardly revised 0.7% (from 0.3%) in February. The Briefing.com consensus expected retail sales to increase 1.0%. As expected from the motor vehicle sales data, auto sales contributed significantly to overall sales growth. Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers increased 3.1% in March after increasing 2.5% in February. Excluding autos, retail sales still increased a solid 0.7% in March, up from a 0.3% gain in February. The consensus expected these sales to increase 0.5%. Sales were strong all around, but there wasn't much to suggest that the acceleration in spending was the result of pent-up demand from delayed winter spending. The March employment report showed a 0.7% increase in aggregate wages, which exactly matched spending after stripping out autos.
Business inventories increased 0.4% for a second consecutive month in February. The Briefing.com consensus expected inventories to increase 0.6%. Total inventories consist of manufacturers, merchant wholesalers, and retailers. Both manufacturers (0.7%) and wholesalers (0.5%) inventories were announced prior to the release. Only retailer inventories, which were flat in February after increasing 0.3% in January, were unknown.

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Not much change has taken place since our last update as the Nasdaq (+1.0%) remains in the lead, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.8%) underperforms.

Even though nine members of the price-weighted index sport gains in excess of 1.0%, the Dow is being kept from matching the S&P 500's gain (+0.9%) by five names that trade lower. Two components of the consumer staples sector-Procter & Gamble (PG 80.67, -0.09) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 96.65, -0.22)-and two members of the financial sector-Travelers (TRV 85.12, -0.19), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 54.92, -0.38)-are responsible for the modest underperformance. Also of note, Verizon (VZ 47.02, -0.05) is also among the Dow components trading in the red.

Elsewhere, Treasuries continue holding slim losses with the 10-yr yield at 2.64%.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain near their best levels of the session with the Nasdaq (+1.1%) trading a bit ahead of its peers.

The tech-heavy index outperforms thanks to strength among most components that have been hit with aggressive selling interest over the past few sessions. Google (GOOG 543.60, +13.00), LinkedIn (LNKD 169.24, +3.46), and Yelp (YELP 63.78, +2.06) display gains between 2.1% and 3.5%. Elsewhere, high-beta chipmakers also appear among the leaders with the PHLX Semiconductor Index trading higher by 1.3%.

It is worth mentioning the major averages are also drawing strength from biotechnology as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 218.60, +3.15) continues holding the bulk of its gain.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain near their best levels of the session as many of last week's underperformers pace today's advance with some short-covering likely peppered in. On that note, three sectors that have been under significant pressure recently-consumer discretionary (+1.0%), health care (+0.8%), and technology (+1.2%)-are among today's leaders.

Strikingly, the financial sector (+0.6%) charged out of the gate, but has since retreated from the top of the leaderboard. Citigroup (C 47.55, +1.87) continues showing significant strength following its above-consensus quarterly results, while JPMorgan Chase (JPM 54.62, -0.67) and Wells Fargo (WFC 48.00, -0.08) lag. The broader sector, meanwhile, has narrowed its April decline to 4.2%.

10:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+1.0%) has overtaken its opening high with help from biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 220.87, +5.42) trades up 2.5% as it attempt to hold its 200-day moving average. The broader health care sector, meanwhile, outperforms with a gain of 1.0%.

Elsewhere, the technology sector (+1.1%) is also showing relative strength. The largest sector member, Apple (AAPL 517.58, -2.03), holds a modest loss, while other large names like Google (GOOG 540.82, +10.22), Facebook (FB 60.32, +1.78), and Intel (INTC 26.46, +0.28) are up between 1.0% and 3.0%.

Similarly, the consumer discretionary sector (+1.1%) also outperforms, with Amazon.com (AMZN 319.50, +7.77) and Netflix (NFLX 333.70, +6.99) showing strength after last week's underperformance.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

The dollar index is trading higher today, which is weighing on most commodities
Gold and silver futures were sliding lower overnight, but have been recovering this morning
Gold futures actually just hit a new session high in floor trading. June gold is currently +0.8% at $1329/oz, while May silver is +0.6% at $20.06/oz.
May copper is +0.3% at $3.05/lb
May natural gas rose as high as $4.64/MMBtu earlier this morning, but sold off 2.2% to $4.54/MMBtu, which was hit 30 minutes after pit trading began.
Nat gas is now -1.3% at $4.56/MMBtu
Crude oil has been conslidated around the unchanged line. The May contract is currently +0.2% at $103.95/barrel

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has narrowed its gain to 0.5%.

The financial sector (+0.6%) remains among the outperformers, but outside of the big gain in the shares of Citigroup (C 47.27, +1.59), other large components are somewhat mixed. Bank of America (BAC 15.98, +0.21) and Goldman Sachs (GS 154.39, +1.67) outperform with respective gains of 1.4% and 1.1%, while JPMorgan Chase (JPM 54.92, -0.38) and Wells Fargo (WFC 47.88, -0.19), both of which reported their results on Friday, hover in the red.

Elsewhere, the health care sector (+0.3%), has given up a portion of its gain as biotechnology retreated from its opening high. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 216.25, +0.80) is higher by 0.4% after being unable to retake its 200-day moving average.

Just reported, February business inventories rose 0.4%, which was below the 0.6% increase expected by the Briefing.com consensus. This follows the prior month's unrevised increase of 0.4%.

9:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM] As expected, the major averages began on an upbeat note with the Nasdaq Composite (+0.8%) in the lead. The S&P 500, meanwhile, trades higher by 0.7% with eight sectors showing gains.

The financial sector (+1.0%) holds the early lead thanks to a 4.2% gain in the shares of Citigroup (C 47.59, +1.91) after the company reported above-consensus earnings and revenue.

Outside of financials, other cyclical groups trade somewhat mixed. Energy (+0.4%) and industrials (+0.6%) lag, while consumer discretionary, technology, and materials trade in-line with the S&P 500.

The Business Inventories report for February will be released at 10:00 ET.

9:14 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +12.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +29.20. The stock market is on track to begin today's session on an upbeat note as index futures hover near their highs. The S&P 500 futures trade 12 points above fair value, with the entire gain coming over the past hour.

The recent climb in index futures has lifted European markets off their lows after the major averages there displayed losses close to 1.0% earlier in the session. The earlier weakness resulted from a weekend escalation of tensions in Ukraine, where the country's army faced off against pro-Russian separatists in several Southeastern cities.

Domestically, futures have received support from Citigroup (C 47.36, +1.68), which holds a pre-market gain of 3.7% after beating on earnings and revenue. Furthermore, futures got a second push higher from the March Retail Sales report (+1.1% versus Briefing.com consensus 1.0%). As expected from the motor vehicle sales data, auto sales contributed significantly to overall sales growth. Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers increased 3.1% in March after increasing 2.5% in February. Excluding autos, retail sales still increased a solid 0.7% in March, up from a 0.3% gain in February. The consensus expected these sales to increase 0.5%.

One more data point remains on the schedule with February Business Inventories (consensus +0.6%) set be announced at 10:00 ET.

Treasuries hold slim losses with the benchmark 10-yr yield up one basis point at 2.64%.

8:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +12.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +26.00. The S&P 500 futures trade 12 points above fair value.

Asian markets finished the first session of the week on a mixed note. Singapore reported GDP growth of 5.1% year-over-year, matching expectations. Elsewhere, South Korea's trade surplus narrowed to $4.17 billion from $4.19 billion.

Japan's Nikkei shed 0.4%, sliding to its lowest level in six months. Heavyweight Fast Retailing gave up another 3.0% following Friday's 7.8% plunge that was a result of the company lowering its guidance due to the consumption tax hike.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng eked out a gain of 0.2%. Hong Kong Exchanges saw continued strength, finishing up 2.6%, as shares remained bid following last week's announcement of cross-border equity trading.
China's Shanghai Composite added 0.1%, holding near two-month highs. Brokerage firms saw some profit-taking with Industrial Securities off 0.6%.

Major European indices trade in mixed fashion after climbing off their lows. Participants are watching the situation in Ukraine, where, over the weekend, the country's army exchanged gunfire with pro-Russian separatists attempting to seize government buildings in the Southeastern region.

Economic data was limited. Eurozone Industrial Production ticked up 0.2% month-over-month, as expected, while the year-over-year reading increased 1.7% (consensus 1.5%, prior 1.6%). Elsewhere, Italian CPI ticked up 0.1% month-over-month, while the year-over-year reading rose 0.4%. Both figures met expectations.

Among news of note, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi commented over the weekend, reminding investors that the central bank is ready to act if needed and that continued euro strength will likely be met with stimulus measures.

France's CAC trades higher by 0.1% with consumer names in the lead. Danone, L'Oreal, and Pernod Ricard hold gains between 2.0% and 3.1%. On the downside, exporter Renault holds a loss of 3.1%.
Great Britain's FTSE trades up 0.1%. Staple stocks outperform with Diageo and Sainsbury both up near 3.0%.
Germany's DAX is flat. Drug makers Bayer and Merck hold gains close to 1.4% apiece, while Allianz and Commerzbank lag. The two hold respective losses of 0.9% and 2.4%.

8:31 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +11.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +24.70. The S&P 500 futures trade 11 points above fair value.

March retail sales rose 1.1% while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 1.0%. The prior month's reading was revised to reflect an increase of 0.7% (from +0.3%). Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.7% against the 0.5% increase expected by the consensus.

8:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +6.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.70. U.S. equity futures display modest gains despite cautious action in Europe, where the major regional indices hold losses following an escalation of tensions in Ukraine. Over the weekend, Ukraine's army exchanged gunfire with pro-Russian militants attempting to seize government buildings in the country's Southeast region. The S&P 500 futures hover six points above fair value.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mixed. Japan's Nikkei -0.4%, China's Shanghai Composite +0.1%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.2%.
Economic data was limited:
South Korea's trade surplus narrowed to $4.17 billion from $4.19 billion.
Singapore's GDP rose 5.1% year-over-year, as expected.
In news:
China's Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao commented on the economy over the weekend, saying Beijing will not unleash stimulus measures in order to tackle short-term volatility.

Major European indices trade lower. Great Britain's FTSE -0.3%, France's CAC -0.4%, and Germany's DAX -0.4%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB -0.8% and Spain's IBEX -1.2%.
Economic data was limited:
Eurozone Industrial Production ticked up 0.2% month-over-month, as expected, while the year-over-year reading increased 1.7% (consensus 1.5%, prior 1.6%).
Italian CPI ticked up 0.1% month-over-month, while the year-over-year reading rose 0.4%. Both figures met expectations.
Among news of note:
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi commented over the weekend, reminding investors that the central bank is ready to act if needed and that continued euro strength will likely be met with stimulus measures.

In U.S. corporate news:

Citigroup (C 46.81, +1.13): +2.5% after beating on earnings and revenue.
Edwards Lifesciences (EW 81.99, +9.02): +11.7% after the company was granted an injunction limiting the sale of Medtronic's (MDT 56.50, -2.70) CoreValve system in the U.S.
Microsoft (MSFT 38.93, -0.28): -0.7% after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock to 'Hold' from 'Buy.'
Yahoo! (YHOO 33.30, +0.43): +1.3% after Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey upgraded the stock to 'Buy' from 'Neutral.'

The Retail Sales report for March (Briefing.com consensus +1.0%) will be released at 8:30 ET while February Business Inventories (consensus +0.6%) will be announced at 10:00 ET.

6:28 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.50.

6:28 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...13910.16...-49.90...-0.40%. Hang Seng...23038.80...+35.20...+0.20%.

6:28 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6526.55...-35.20...-0.50%. DAX...9247.27...-68.00...-0.70%.

U.S. Stocks Rally on Citigroup, Data as Treasuries Drop

By Lu Wang and Stephen Kirkland Apr 14, 2014 4:55 PM ET

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (SPX) Index rebounded from the worst weekly loss in two years, weathering a selloff in the final hour, after retail sales rose the most since 2012 and Citigroup Inc. (C)’s earnings unexpectedly rose. Treasuries fell with the ruble and commodities advanced on concern the situation in Ukraine is worsening.

The S&P 500 gained 0.8 percent to 1,830.61 at 4 p.m. in New York, after briefly erasing gains in the final hour. Citigroup jumped 4.4 percent. The 10-year Treasury yield rose two basis points to 2.65 percent. The ruble slid 0.9 percent against the dollar after clashes between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian gunmen turned deadly. The S&P GSCI gauge of 24 raw materials rose 0.9 percent to the highest level since March 4. Palladium advanced to the highest since August 2011, wheat rallied 2.8 percent and nickel jumped to the highest since February 2013.

Citigroup, the third-biggest U.S. bank, reported an unexpected profit increase in the first quarter after disappointing results from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and a selloff in technology stocks sent the S&P 500 to its biggest weekly loss since June 2012. Retail sales increased in March by the most since September 2012, Commerce Department figures showed. European officials weighed expanding sanctions against Russia over Ukraine

“When you have a market down so much over the past few weeks, people are getting a little bit worried,” Brent Schutte, senior investment strategist at BMO Global Asset Management in Chicago, said in a phone interview. The firm has over $128 billion in assets. “Any time you get incrementally better U.S. data and decent earnings, you have a backdrop to go higher.”

Hedge Funds

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index (CCMP) wiped out rallies of more than 1 percent as the market headed into the final hour of trading, only to surge before the close. The Nasdaq Composite ended the day with a 0.6 percent gain, while the Russell 2000 Index added 0.4 percent.

A retreat in so-called high-beta stocks including Facebook Inc. dragged the Nasdaq Composite down as much as 0.3 percent. Internet stocks and biotechnology companies are considered to have higher beta, or volatility, than the market because their earnings potential is hard to predict.

The Dow Jones Internet Composite Index jumped 0.8 percent after tumbling 3.3 percent last week. Twitter Inc. and Yahoo! Inc. rallied more than 1.8 percent. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index was little changed, recovering after rallying 2.7 percent and then plunging 1.9 percent. The gauge entered a bear market on April 11, falling more than 20 percent from an all-time high in February.

High Beta

“Right now everyone is watching beta to figure out whether or not the beta flush trade is over,” Yousef Abbasi, a market strategist at JonesTrading Institutional Services LLC in New York, said in an interview. “That is dictating overall market sentiment.”

The S&P 500 slid 2.6 percent last week amid disappointing results at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and signs hedge funds were dumping the bull market’s best performers. The benchmark index dropped as much as 4 percent from an all-time high on April 2 as concern grew that valuations may be too high as earnings season begins.

Coca-Cola Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Yahoo, Google Inc. and General Electric Co. are among companies scheduled to report earnings later this week. Profit for members of the S&P 500 probably fell 0.9 percent in the first quarter, analysts now forecast, after anticipating a 6.6 percent rise in January. Sales increased 2.6 percent, according to projections.

The S&P 500 has rallied as much as 180 percent from its 2009 low as earnings surpassed forecasts and three rounds of bond purchases from the Federal Reserve fueled economic growth.

Retail Sales

U.S. retail sales jumped a greater-than-forecast 1.1 percent in March, the biggest gain since September 2012, following a 0.7 percent advance in February that was more than twice as large as previously reported, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Ten of 13 categories, from auto dealers to furniture and clothing stores, showed a pickup.

More seasonable temperatures unleashed demand among customers who had been unable to dig out from snow storms that hurt the world’s largest economy at the start of the first quarter. The surge in sales means consumer spending will propel a marked rebound in growth from April through June.

Citigroup advanced 4.4 percent today as the company recouped funds previously set aside for bad loans and cut losses at a division holding unwanted assets. Energy producers and technology stocks led the recovery from last week’s slump as all 10 main industries in the S&P 500 rose.

Rotation Pattern

While U.S. stocks have tumbled as investors bought companies with stable earnings and dumped Internet and biotechnology shares, it doesn’t mean the bull market is over, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Stocks tend to recover after similar rotations, with the S&P 500 rising an average 5 percent over the next six months, according to a study by Goldman Sachs on 46 instances of a momentum reversals since 1980. Low interest rates and reasonable equity valuations will help prevent the market from crashing like 2000, said strategists led by David Kostin.

“The recent momentum drawdown is unlikely to precipitate a more extensive fall in share prices,” they wrote in an April 11 note.

Hedge Funds

The S&P 500 trades at about 17 times earnings. While that’s near the highest level in four years, it’s close to the average since 1937, data compiled by Bloomberg and S&P show.

Hedge funds are saying goodbye to the calm that blanketed U.S. stocks for the past two years. Large speculators have reduced bets on lower volatility and were net short about 1,000 contracts on VIX futures last month, the fewest since 2011, according to a report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The action amounts to speculation equities will keep falling since the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) moves in the opposite direction of the S&P 500 about 80 percent of the time.

The VIX, a benchmark gauge for equity options, slipped 5.4 percent to 16.11 today, after briefly erasing losses in the last hour. The measure has jumped 17 percent this year.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slid 0.4 percent, retreating for a second day.

European officials weighed expanding sanctions against Russia over Ukraine, where they say the government in Moscow is stoking deadly separatist unrest. Officials from the U.S. and Russia blamed each other at an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council yesterday for violence that left at least one Ukrainian serviceman dead. Envoys from Ukraine, Russia, the U.S. and the EU also are scheduled to hold talks on the crisis in Geneva April 17.

Ruble, Micex

The ruble dropped to 35.96 per dollar, the weakest since March 24. Turkey’s lira weakened 0.4 percent and South Africa’s rand declined 0.2 percent per dollar, while Hungary’s forint lost 0.5 percent against the euro.

Russia’s Micex Index fell 1.3 percent, taking its loss since President Vladimir Putin’s incursion into the Crimea region at the beginning of March to 7 percent.

“The Ukraine tension is giving things linked to Russia a sentiment boost but this remains more of a tail risk, especially as many commodities already have their own existing supply story,” Dominic Schnider, head of commodities research at UBS AG’s wealth-management unit, said by phone from Singapore.

Palladium, Nickel

The S&P GSCI climbed 0.9 percent to the highest level since March 3. Palladium increased as much as 1.4 percent to $817 an ounce and nickel gained 2.2 percent, the 11th consecutive gain in the longest streak since October 2010. Wheat jumped 2.8 percent after three days of declines. Russia is the biggest producer of palladium, is the fifth-largest wheat exporter and Moscow-based OAO Norilsk Nickel is the top producer of refined nickel.

U.K. natural gas, the European Union’s benchmark contract, climbed for a fourth day, advancing 1.9 percent. Europe gets about a third of its natural gas from Russia, half of it through Ukraine. U.S. natural gas futures slumped 1.3 percent on speculation that stockpiling may accelerate as milder weather reduces fuel use.

Brent and West Texas Intermediate crudes rose to five-week highs on escalating tension between Ukraine and Russia. The North Sea oil’s premium to WTI widened for the first time in seven days. Brent for May settlement increased 1.6 percent, while WTI added 0.3 percent. Gold climbed 0.6 percent.

European Stocks

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.3 percent. The gauge dropped 3.1 percent last week, the biggest loss in a month. Basic resources led advances among the 19 industry groups today, adding 1.9 percent.

Caracal Energy Inc. jumped 55 percent after Glencore Xstrata Plc agreed to pay 550 pence a share for the company. Glencore rose 2 percent. PSA Peugeot Citroen retreated 6.3 percent after Europe’s second-largest carmaker set a 2018 profitability target, outlining plans to cut its model lineup by almost half.

Euro-area government bonds rose and the euro slipped after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the strengthening of the region’s shared currency warrants more monetary stimulus.

Italy’s 10-year yield fell four basis points to 3.17 percent. The rate dropped to 3.14 percent on April 7, the lowest since Bloomberg started collecting the data in 1993. Spain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 3.14 percent.

The euro fell 0.5 percent to $1.3821. The currency climbed 1.3 percent last week, the biggest advance since the period ended Sept. 20. It lost 0.3 percent to 140.76 yen. The dollar gained 0.2 percent to 101.85 yen.

To contact the reporters on this story: Lu Wang in New York at lwang8@bloomberg.net; Stephen Kirkland in London at skirkland@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Stuart Wallace at swallace6@bloomberg.net; Lynn Thomasson at lthomasson@bloomberg.net Jeff Sutherland

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader @ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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