TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)


Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $0.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the chat room. You can read today's chat room logs for details about each one of my trades via price action trading from entry to exit (e.g. time, price, contract size) along with price action commentary as the trade traversed to its completion...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=1767


Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=236&t=2302

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks: Heading For The Exits


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Markets are finally closed for the week after a truly bumpy ride that ended with investors running for the exits Thursday and Friday.

The weakness in the technology sector appears to be spreading to the broader stock market.

The Nasdaq was the biggest loser. The tech-heavy index fell more than 1.3% to end below 4,000 for the first time since early February. It lost 3.1% for the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 143 points after JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500) reported weaker-than-expected earnings growth. The blue-chip average sank 2.3% for the week, falling after three weeks of gains.

The S&P 500 was down nearly 1% today with selling in all sectors. Information technology was the hardest hit, but more defensive sectors such as utilities and telecoms were also under pressure. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.6%.

It's a sharp reversal for the broad market gauge, which hit an all-time high just last week.

All three major U.S. market indexes are now down for the year.

Related: Investors aren't bringing sexy back

The main catalyst for this week's sell-off was a souring on so-called momentum stocks, including shares of many technology and healthcare companies. The firms had been trading at very high prices relative to expected earnings growth.

For example, two popular exchange-traded funds that own biotechnology stocks (IBB) and small-cap stocks (IWM) both fell about 4% this week.

But the concern now is that the sell-off is spreading to other parts of the market.

"The market has run out of momentum stocks to crush, so it is moving to the fat ladies aka $SPY and $DIA," said StockTwits user ivanhoff, referring to exchange-traded funds that mirror the S&P 500 and the Dow.

Stocks have been on a wild ride so far in 2014.

According to Schaeffer's Investment Research, the Nasdaq has experienced a gain or loss of 1% or more on 21 trading days since January 1. That's roughly double the number from the same period last year.

In corporate news, Herbalife (HLF) shares plunged after the Financial Times reported that federal law enforcement authorities are investigating the company. Herbalife, which sells nutritional supplements via a network of independent distributors, is already the subject of a Federal Trade Commission probe.

Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman has repeatedly called Herbalife a pyramid scheme and has a very public $1 billion bet against the company's stock.

Before the market opened, JPMorgan said earnings were hurt in the first quarter by weakness in bond trading, while consumer lending and deposits were a bright spot. Despite the lackluster report, CEO Jamie Dimon said he has "growing confidence in the economy."

JPMorgan shares fell more than 3%. "$JPM nothing to see please move along and carry on," wrote LAstarDCstar

Related: JPMorgan profits sink, but Dimon confident

The news was a bit rosier for Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500), which reported a double-digit profit gain for the first quarter.

Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) will report results next week.

Overall, earnings for the companies in the S&P 500 are expected to fall 1.2% in the first quarter, according to FactSet Research. That would mark the first annual decline since the third quarter of 2012.

One of the biggest losers today was J.C. Penney (JCP, Fortune 500), though there was no clear trigger for the selling. The retailer's stock ended the day down 9.6%.

"$JCP WHERES THE NEWS! 12% plunge doesn't just happen!!!!!!!," wrote TheEngine3r on StockTwits.

H&R Block (HRB) shares jumped initially after the company said it will sell its bank to Bofl Federal Bank, but the stock ended the day lower. Shares of retailer GAP (GPS, Fortune 500) slid after the retailer reported a sales decline for March.

*Video - H&R Block up ... but not due to taxes

Finally, confirming that the business world also has plenty of "relationship status" updates, shares of IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI) jumped after a Bloomberg report said Barry Diller's media conglomerate paid $500 million to buy another 10% of the Tinder online dating service from a venture capitalist. The investment values Tinder at $5 billion, according to the report.

Not all traders were buying the rich valuation, however. "Are you kidding me $IACI?! Tinder hasn't even started monetizing yet!," wrote NextTrade1122.

Related: Tech stock rout continues in Asia

The rout in tech shares spilled over into Asian markets Friday. Shares of Tencent (TCEHY) plunged 6.8% and Samsung (SSNLF) fell 5%. The Nikkei index plunged 2.4%, taking its loss for the week to 7.3%.

European markets were also caught up in the fallout from Wall Street's slump.





4:20 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market finished the week on a broadly lower note with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 enduring their worst week since 2012. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3%, ending the week with a loss of 3.1%. For its part, the S&P 500 settled lower by 1.0% to end the week down 2.7%.

Equity indices faced selling activity at the open after the overnight session failed to deliver any noteworthy respite following yesterday's drubbing. The lack of a concerted rebound effort today likely fed into concerns that the stock market is in the midst of a larger degree price correction than what participants have grown accustomed to seeing the past few years.

Despite starting in the red, the major averages spent the initial 90 minutes of action in a dash towards their flat lines. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were able to make a brief appearance in the green with help from biotechnology, while the Dow spent the entire day in the red.

The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 215.45, -6.44) appeared to have found support at its 200-day moving average in the morning, but the modest morning rebound was met with daylong selling that drove the ETF to a fresh session low. The ETF lost 2.9%, while the health care sector fell 1.1%.

Biotech notwithstanding, other momentum names that comprise a portion of the consumer discretionary sector (-1.4%) and a good part of the technology space (-1.2%) were weak once again. Amazon.com (AMZN 311.73, -5.38), Google (GOOG 530.60, -10.35), Netflix (NFLX 326.71, -8.02), and LinkedIn (LNKD 165.78, -4.21) lost between 1.7% and 2.5%, to name a few.

Even though the Nasdaq and S&P 500 made short-lived appearances in the green, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.9%) was unable to do so as JPMorgan Chase (JPM 55.30, -2.10) and top-weighted component, Visa (V 196.63, -4.92), weighed. Visa sank 2.4% while JPMorgan Chase plunged 3.7% after missing earnings estimates on below-consensus revenue. The financial sector (-1.2%), meanwhile, ended among the laggards. The sector was kept from logging additional losses due to a 0.8% gain in Wells Fargo (WFC 48.08, +0.37), which reported above-consensus earnings.

On a separate note, shares of Herbalife (HLF 51.48, -8.36) took a dive in the final hour of action, falling 14.0% after The Financial Times reported that a criminal probe has been launched into the company's business practices.

On the fixed income side, Treasuries were little changed overnight, but began climbing during the early morning hours. The 10-yr note added eight ticks, pressuring its yield to 2.62%.

Participation was a bit above average as nearly 800 million shares changed hands at the NYSE.

Reviewing today's data:
Producer prices jumped 0.5% in March, the largest monthly increase since June, after falling 0.1% in February. The Briefing.com consensus expected the PPI to increase 0.1%. We would not categorize the forecasting miss as a big surprise. The consensus is having difficulty forecasting the PPI following the methodology change. Under the previous PPI methodology, price growth for finished goods was down 0.1%. That was in line with expectations. The entire increase in producer prices was the result of a bounce in prices for final demand for services. After declining 0.3% in February, these prices increased 0.7%, which was the largest monthly gain since January 2010.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 82.6 in the preliminary reading for April from 80.0 in March. That was the strongest sentiment reading since July 2013. The Briefing.com consensus expected the index to increase to 81.0. Consumer sentiment typically follows changes in the equity markets, unemployment, and gasoline prices. The surveys were filled out prior to the recent weakness in the stock market, so equity prices enhanced sentiment in the preliminary reading. If the market does not rebound, we would expect the final reading to be notably lower. The Expectations Index increased to 97.1 in the preliminary reading for April from 70.0 in March. The Present Conditions Index increased to 97.1 from 95.7.

On Monday, the Retail Sales report for March will be released at 8:30 ET while February Business Inventories will be announced at 10:00 ET.

S&P 500 -1.8% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -3.3% YTD
Nasdaq Composite -4.2% YTD
Russell 2000 -4.3% YTD

Week in Review: Selling Begets Selling

The stock market began the new trading week on the defensive, with the major averages posting losses across the board. The Russell 2000 (-1.5%) and Nasdaq (-1.2%) led the retreat, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.0%) and S&P 500 (-1.1%) fared a bit better. The major averages started the session in the red with little help from other global indices as markets in Asia and Europe posted losses. Similar to Friday, equity indices spent the session in a steady retreat as momentum names remained volatile. Biotechnology displayed early strength, but the industry group notched a session high during the opening hour before spending the remainder of the day in a battle with its flat line.

On Tuesday, the major averages halted their three-day losing streak with a modest bounce that sent the Nasdaq Composite higher by 0.8%. The S&P 500, meanwhile, added 0.4% with seven sectors posting gains. Equity indices exhibited some volatility during the opening hour before setting off on a climb to new session highs. The Nasdaq, which was the weakest index in recent days, stayed ahead of its peers throughout the day as momentum names recovered some of their recent losses. The Nasdaq was supported by solid gains among the likes of Amazon.com, Google, LinkedIn, and Netflix. Amazon.com and Netflix also gave a boost to the consumer discretionary sector (+1.0%), while Google and LinkedIn contributed to the outperformance of the technology space (+0.9%).

The stock market finished the Wednesday session on a sharply higher note, with the Nasdaq Composite (+1.7%) in the lead. Equity indices held solid gains into the afternoon, with a second push coming after the release of the FOMC Minutes from the March policy meeting. For the most part, the minutes reiterated several points that were already known, but market participants zeroed in on a specific portion that commented on the expected trajectory of the fed funds rate. Specifically, the minutes revealed that policymakers are not necessarily committed to hiking the fed funds rate in the first half of 2015. While that timetable could still come to fruition, it is becoming increasingly clear that the FOMC is unwilling to back itself into a corner by providing calendar-based guidance. That proved to be a relief for the stock and bond markets, while pressuring the dollar. Treasuries cut the bulk of their losses after the release of the minutes, with the benchmark 10-yr yield ending at 2.69% after hovering near 2.72% in the early afternoon. Elsewhere, the Dollar Index (-0.3%) slumped to lows, while gold futures recovered their losses, clawing back to the 1309.00/ozt level.

Thursday saw the return of aggressive selling that placed the Nasdaq (-3.1%) below its 100-day moving average, while the S&P 500 (-2.1%) finished below its 50-day average. The Dow Jones Industrial Average held up a bit better, but the price-weighted index posted a sharp loss (-1.6%) nonetheless. Even though the major averages finished Wednesday on an upbeat note, the sentiment began deteriorating during the overnight session when China reported a surprise trade surplus of $7.71 billion, which was due to disappointing import (-11.3% versus expected 2.4%) and export (-6.6% versus expected 4.0%) figures. This renewed some of the concerns about the strength of the Chinese economy, which have been present since the start of the year. Strikingly, markets in Hong Kong (+1.5%) and China (+1.4%) outperformed, but that was likely due to the announcement that Beijing would allow as much as CNY23.50 billion of cross-border equity trading. By and large, there was some indiscriminate selling taking place as the lack of follow through from the Wednesday rally piqued concerns about a larger scale correction being under way. In turn, the sharp price pullbacks started to raise worries about collateral damage among highly leveraged accounts that could be facing some margin calls. As those worries percolated, participants reduced their risk exposure with a sell-first-ask-questions-later disposition. Health care (-3.2%) spent the duration of the trading day at the bottom of the leaderboard, with continued weakness in biotechnology exacerbating the decline.

3:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Precious metals fell today as the dollar index traded higher.
June gold retreated into negative territory from its session high of $1323.00 per ounce set in early morning pit trade.
It chopped around slightly below the unchanged line for the remainder of the session and settled 0.2% lower at $1318.60 per ounce, booking a gain of 1.2% for the week.
May silver touched a session high of $20.08 per ounce moments after floor trade opened and brushed a session low of $19.93 per ounce just before settling with a 0.8% loss at $19.94 per ounce. Today's drop cut gains for the week to 0.9%.
May crude oil climbed as high as $104.50 per barrel today as it gained support from bullish consumer confidence data. The Michigan Sentiment index increased to 82.6 in April from 80.0 in March, making it the strongest sentiment reading since July 2013.
The Briefing.com consensus expected the index to increase to 81.0. The energy component lost steam in afternoon action and settled 0.3% higher at $103.67 per barrel, bringing gains for the week to 2.5%.
May natural gas pulled back from its session high of $4.66 per MMBtu set in early morning action and spent the remainder of the session chopping around in negative territory.
It settled 0.6% lower at $4.62 per MMBtu, or just above its session low of $4.61 per MMBtu. Today's loss reduced gains for the week to 4.3%.

3:05 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have notched fresh lows going into the final hour of action. The S&P 500 is now lower by 0.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite has extended its decline to 1.4%.

In our last update, we highlighted the return of selling in the biotech space, and the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 216.02, -5.87) has since marked a fresh session low. Interestingly, the health care sector continues trading in line with the S&P 500.

Elsewhere, consumer discretionary (-1.3%) and technology (-1.0%) trail the remaining groups as the session enters the home stretch.

With stocks seeing continued pressure, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 17.49, +1.60) is higher by 10.1%.

2:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.7%) has slipped to a fresh session low while the Nasdaq remains not far above its worst level of the session.

It is worth mentioning that this morning's climb off the opening levels was assisted by gains in the biotech space. Despite the early strength, selling pressure has picked up once again, putting the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 218.14, -3.75) back near its morning lows. At this time, the ETF trades lower by 1.7% while the broader health care sector holds a loss of 0.6% after displaying relative strength just a couple hours ago.

Elsewhere, the technology sector (-1.0%) is back among the laggards. Momentum names are seeing pressure once again with Facebook (FB 58.50, -0.67), Google (GOOG 533.03, -7.92), and LinkedIn (LNKD 165.80, -4.20) down between 1.0% and 2.4%.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.5%) remains not far above its session low after returning into this area over the past hour.

Similarly, the discretionary sector (-1.1%) has slipped back to its session low amid broad weakness. Retailers and homebuilders trade in the red with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 81.12, -1.15) and iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 23.51, -0.32) both down 1.4%.

Momentum names also weigh on the sector as Amazon.com (AMZN 311.64, -5.47) and Netflix (NFLX 329.45, -5.28) hold respective losses of 1.9% and 1.8%.

1:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Some disappointing action for the bulls thus far as the stock market has been unable to maintain any upside momentum. Following yesterday's significant losses, the lack of a concerted rebound effort today is likely feeding into concerns that the stock market is in the midst of a larger degree price correction than what participants have grown accustomed to seeing the past few years.

Hard-hitting selling efforts targeted the biotech and high-beta momentum stocks yesterday. Blue chip issues fared better (but not great). In any event, there isn't a great deal of buying interest among the blue chips today either. JPMorgan Chase (JPM 55.66, -1.74) will draw some blame for that after the banking behemoth reported some disappointing first quarter earnings results.

For more insight on the first quarter earnings reporting period, be sure to read The Big Picture column on Briefing.com.

At this juncture, every S&P sector is trading with a loss, although no sector is down more than 1.0%.

12:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] At midday, the major averages trade in the red with small caps showing the largest decline. The Russell 2000 is lower by 0.8%, while the S&P 500 trades down 0.4% with seven sectors on the defensive.

The stock market began the trading day in negative territory and yesterday's weakest index, Nasdaq (-0.4%), was down as much as 1.0% during the initial minutes. Similarly, biotechnology was a notable laggard at the open, but the industry group rebounded swiftly, with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 222.51, +0.62) finding support at its 200-day moving average.

The snapback in biotech provided support to the health care sector (+0.1%) and helped the Nasdaq erase a good portion of its early losses.

Although biotech has provided a measure of support, the Nasdaq remains pressured by weakness in the technology sector (-0.4%). Apple (AAPL 520.54, -2.94) and Google (GOOG 536.98, -3.97) are down 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively, while chipmakers also find themselves among the laggards. The PHLX Semiconductor Index trades down 0.7%.

Elsewhere, another influential sector, financials (-0.7%), lags with JPMorgan Chase (JPM 55.60, -1.80) trading lower by 3.1% after missing on earnings and revenue. Another sector component, Wells Fargo (WFC 48.44, +0.73), trades up 1.6% following its bottom-line beat on in-line revenue.

On the countercyclical side, consumer staples (-0.5%) trail the broader market, while health care (+0.1%), telecom services (-0.2%), and utilities (+0.1%) outperform.

Treasuries hold modest gains, but they have slipped from their highest levels of the day. The 10-yr note trades higher by five ticks with its yield down three basis points at 2.62%.

Reviewing today's data:

Producer prices jumped 0.5% in March, the largest monthly increase since June, after falling 0.1% in February. The Briefing.com consensus expected the PPI to increase 0.1%. We would not categorize the forecasting miss as a big surprise. The consensus is having difficulty forecasting the PPI following the methodology change. Under the previous PPI methodology, price growth for finished goods was down 0.1%. That was in line with expectations. The entire increase in producer prices was the result of a bounce in prices for final demand for services. After declining 0.3% in February, these prices increased 0.7%, which was the largest monthly gain since January 2010.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 82.6 in the preliminary reading for April from 80.0 in March. That was the strongest sentiment reading since July 2013. The Briefing.com consensus expected the index to increase to 81.0. Consumer sentiment typically follows changes in the equity markets, unemployment, and gasoline prices. The surveys were filled out prior to the recent weakness in the stock market, so equity prices enhanced sentiment in the preliminary reading. If the market does not rebound, we would expect the final reading to be notably lower. The Expectations Index increased to 97.1 in the preliminary reading for April from 70.0 in March. The Present Conditions Index increased to 97.1 from 95.7.

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.4%) hovers right in the middle of its range after being unable to make a sustained move into the green. Although the index crept above its flat line roughly an hour ago, that slim gain was short-lived.

Overall, cyclical sectors are responsible for the bulk of today's decline as five of six growth-sensitive sectors hold losses between 0.5% and 0.7%. Energy is the lone advancer as it trades higher by 0.1%.

On the countercyclical side, consumer staples (-0.4%) trade in line with the broader market, while health care, telecom services, and utilities all hover near their flat lines.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.4%) has retreated from its recent levels, leaving the energy sector (+0.1%) as the only group trading higher at this juncture. The growth-sensitive sector has received support from one of its top components, Chevron (CVX 117.58, +0.89), which trades higher by 0.8%. Similar to Chevron, crude oil holds a gain of 0.8% at $104.21/bbl, which is a supportive for the sector.

Meanwhile, the other commodity-linked sector, materials, underperforms with a loss of 0.7%. Miners and steelmakers are among the laggards, with Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 24.44, -0.13) and Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX 46.75, -0.33) down 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively.

11:25 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq and S&P 500 continue trading near their flat lines, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.3%) underperforms modestly.

The price-weighted Dow lags as two of its three highest priced issues hold losses of 1.0% or more. Goldman Sachs (GS 154.08, -1.91) and Visa (V 199.00, -2.55) are both down near 1.3%, while the weakest index component-JPMorgan Chase (JPM 56.04, -1.37)-holds a loss of 2.4%.

On the upside, drug maker Merck (MRK 56.42, +0.57) leads with a gain of 1.0%. Fittingly, the health care sector (+0.3%) remains atop the leaderboard.

11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have climbed off their lows with the S&P 500 regaining its flat line. Elsewhere, the Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%) has also turned positive thanks to a bounce among biotechnology.

The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 225.72, +3.83) is higher by 1.8% after finding support at its 200-day moving average. Accordingly, the health care sector (+0.5%) is now the top-performing group, while utilities (+0.3%) follow right behind.

On the downside, the weakest group of the day, financials, has trimmed its loss to 0.3%, but JPMorgan Chase (JPM 55.82, -1.58) remains in a position of relative weakness.

The rebound in equities has coincided with weakness in Treasuries. The benchmark 10-yr yield has inched up to 2.63% after hovering near 2.61% at the open.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Copper futures pushed higher this morning and rose as high as $3.08/lb.
It has since sold off, falling almost 2% and is now back at its low for the day, currently -0.3% at $3.04/lb
Crude oil rallied this morning and rose as high as $104.19/barrel. May crude is currently +0.6% at $104.01/barrel
Gold and silver futures have been in a rather small range so far today
June gold is currently -0.2% at $1317.50/oz, May silver is -0.5% at $19.99/oz
Natural gas has been slowly climbing lower and is currently -0.6% at $4.63/MMBtu (May).

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have trimmed their losses, with the Nasdaq narrowing its decline to 0.1%.

Just released, the preliminary reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey for April rose to 82.6 from the reading of 80.0 that was reported in March. The Briefing.com consensus expected the index to improve to 81.0

9:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices began the day with losses paced by the Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%). Meanwhile, the S&P 500 trades lower by 0.5% with seven sectors trading in the red.

Once again, biotechnology is contributing to the underperformance of the Nasdaq. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 218.94, -2.95) is lower by 1.3% after slipping below its 200-day moving average (219) at the open. The broader health care sector trades lower by 0.8%, which puts the group just ahead of the financial sector (-1.2%).

Financials lag amid considerable weakness in JPMorgan Chase (JPM 54.80, -2.60), which trades lower by 4.5% after missing earnings and revenue estimates.

Treasuries remain not far below their highs with the 10-yr yield down three basis points at 2.62%.

9:17 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -8.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -21.30. The stock market is on track to begin today's session on a lower note with the Nasdaq expected to display relative weakness once again. The Nasdaq futures trade roughly 0.6% below fair value, while futures on the S&P 500 (-0.4%) show a slimmer loss.

Overnight, Asian markets posted losses across the board with Japan's Nikkei (-2.4%) widening its year-to-date decline to nearly 14.0%. The defensive sentiment has carried over into the European session as the major averages there trade lower by at least 1.3% apiece.

Quarterly earnings reported this morning have not done much to improve sentiment. JPMorgan Chase (JPM 55.38, -2.02) holds a pre-market loss of 3.6% after missing earnings and revenue estimates. Elsewhere, Wells Fargo (WFC 47.60, -0.11) is off 0.2% after beating bottom-line estimates on in-line revenue.

Treasuries hold gains with the benchmark 10-yr yield down almost four basis points at 2.61%.

8:57 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.00. The S&P 500 futures trade seven points below fair value.

Asian markets saw losses as sellers took control following yesterday's steep slide on Wall Street. The latest Bank of Japan minutes were released, indicating policymakers believe that price trends are moving in accordance with forecasts, while weakness in exports will be temporary.

In regional data, China's CPI climbed to 2.4% year-over-year (expected 2.5%, prior 2.0%) while PPI cooled to -2.3% year-over-year (expected -2.2%, previous -2.0%). Elsewhere, India's trade deficit widened to $10.50 billion from $8.13 billion.

Japan's Nikkei tumbled 2.4% to its lowest levels since October as trade was pressured by the strong yen. Heavyweight Fast Retailing plunged 7.8% after lowering its profit forecast in response to the recent consumption tax hike.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.8%, falling for the first time in four days. Internet gaming giant Tencent Holdings continued seeing volatility with shares shedding 6.8%. Meanwhile, Hong Kong Exchanges outperformed, up 11.5%, following a tier 1 upgrade.
China's Shanghai Composite slipped 0.2% for the first time in five sessions. Anhui Conch Cement lost 3.5% as traders booked profits following yesterday's limit-up move.

Major European indices hover near their lowest levels of the session with Germany's DAX (-1.9%) showing the largest decline.

Economic data was limited. Germany's CPI ticked up 0.3% month-over-month, while the year-over-year reading increased 1.0%. Both figures met expectations. Separately, Wholesale Price Index was unchanged month-over-month (consensus -0.2%, prior -0.1%). French Current Account deficit narrowed to EUR1.40 billion from EUR3.70 billion. Spain's CPI ticked up 0.2% month-over-month, as expected, while the year-over-year reading slipped 0.1% (consensus -0.2%, prior -0.2%). Lastly, Great Britain's CB Leading Index rose 0.4% month-over-month (previous 0.6%).

Great Britain's FTSE is lower by 1.3% with more than 90 components trading in the red. Financials Ashtead Group and Hargreaves Lansdown lead the retreat with respective losses of 4.9% and 5.8%. WM Morrison Supermarkets outperforms, up 1.7%.
In France, the CAC holds a loss of 1.3%. Financials are also among the weakest performers with BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, and Societe Generale down between 2.0% and 2.4%. Consumer name Danone is the lone advancer, up 0.5%.
Germany's DAX trades down 1.6%. Heavyweights Commerzbank, Deutsche Lufthansa, and Merck display losses between 2.2% and 3.8%. Utility provider RWE outperforms with a loss of 0.3%.

8:31 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -9.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -25.30. The S&P 500 futures trade nine points below fair value.

March producer prices rose 0.5% while the Briefing.com consensus expected an uptick of 0.1%. Core producer prices jumped 0.6% while the consensus expected an uptick of 0.1%.

7:58 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -7.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -21.50. U.S. equity futures hover near their pre-market lows with cautious action in Europe contributing to the defensive sentiment. The S&P 500 futures trade seven points below fair value.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended lower across the board. China's Shanghai Composite -0.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.8%, and Japan's Nikkei -2.4%.
In economic data:
China's CPI fell 0.5% month-over-month, as expected, while the year-over-year reading increased 2.4% (consensus 2.5%, prior 2.0%). Separately, PPI fell 2.3% year-over-year (expected -2.2%, previous -2.0%).
Japan's Corporate Goods Price Index was unchanged month-over-month (expected 0.1%, prior -0.2%), while the year-over-year reading increased 1.7%, matching expectations.
India's trade deficit widened to $10.51 billion from $8.13 billion (expected deficit of $5.90 billion).
In news:
The Bank of Japan released the minutes from its latest meeting, which indicated policymakers believe that price trends are moving in accordance with forecasts, while weakness in exports will be temporary.

Major European indices hover near their lowest levels of the session. Great Britain's FTSE -1.2%, France's CAC -1.4%, and Germany's DAX -1.8%.
Economic data was limited:
Germany's CPI ticked up 0.3% month-over-month, while the year-over-year reading increased 1.0%. Both figures met expectations. Separately, Wholesale Price Index was unchanged month-over-month (consensus -0.2%, prior -0.1%).
French Current Account deficit narrowed to EUR1.40 billion from EUR3.70 billion.
Spain's CPI ticked up 0.2% month-over-month, as expected, while the year-over-year reading slipped 0.1% (consensus -0.2%, prior -0.2%).
Great Britain's CB Leading Index rose 0.4% month-over-month (previous 0.6%).
Among news of note:
The broad-based weakness in Europe has placed the core indices back at late-March levels. The euro, meanwhile, is holding up well as it hovers not far below its highest level of the year. Currently, the single currency hovers near 1.3875 against the greenback.

In U.S. corporate news:

H&R Block (HRB 30.31, +1.89): +6.7% after announcing an agreement to divest its bank unit.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM 55.55, -1.85): -3.3% after missing earnings and revenue estimates.
NQ Mobile (NQ 14.70, -1.29): -8.1% after reporting a bottom-line miss on above-consensus revenue.

March PPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%) and Core PPI (consensus 0.1%) will be released at 8:30 ET, while the preliminary reading of the Michigan Sentiment survey for April (consensus 81.0) will cross the wires at 9:55 ET.

6:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.00.

6:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...13960.05...-340.10...-2.40%. Hang Seng...23003.64...-183.30...-0.80%.

6:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6560.21...-81.80...-1.20%. DAX...9313.69...-140.90...-1.40%.

U.S. Stocks Fall on JPMorgan Miss; Treasuries, Oil Rise

By Callie Bost and Jeremy Herron Apr 11, 2014 4:31 PM ET

U.S. stocks fell, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index its worst week since 2012, amid disappointing results at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and signs hedge funds were dumping the bull market’s top performers. Treasuries rose, while oil hit a five-week high.

The S&P 500 sank 0.9 percent at 4 p.m. in New York. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.3 percent to close below 4,000 for the first time in two months. The 10-year Treasury yield lost three basis points to 2.62 percent while 30-year yields hit a nine-month low. The dollar snapped five days of losses as investor risk appetite shrank amid a drop in global equities.

The S&P 500 sank 2.6 percent this week on concern that valuations aren’t justified as earnings start. JPMorgan, the first major bank to report, fell the most since 2012, dropping 3.7 percent after profit sank on lower revenue from fixed-income trading and mortgages. Consumer confidence rose in April to the highest level since July. China’s producer price index declined 2.3 percent in March, adding to signs of weak demand after data yesterday showed shrinking trade.

“You need to shake out some of the speculative money and throw water on the irrational exuberance,” Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab Corp. which manages $2.2 trillion in client assets, said in a phone interview. “It’s a good reminder that markets don’t go straight up. While the long-term is positive we need to have these steps back along the way. We need this kind of pullback.”

Australia’s dollar weakened 0.4 percent.

Equities Pullback

The S&P 500 is down 4 percent from a record close on April 2 and trades below its average price over the past 100 days. The Nasdaq, which has lost 8.2 percent from a March high, plunged 3.1 percent yesterday, the most since November 2011. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index sank 2.6 percent today, bringing its loss from a February high to more than 20 percent, meeting the common definition of a bear market.

The percentage of hedge-fund bets that stocks will rise has decreased to 46 percent, compared with 2014’s high of 58 percent, according to an April 9 research note from Credit Suisse Group AG. Net exposure in the U.S. declined to the lowest level since August 2012, the report said.

“So far, exposure reductions have been measured and at least for the time being, there has been no mass rush for the exits,” Credit Suisse’s Jon Kinderlerer wrote. “Unsurprisingly, we have seen exposure being trimmed the most in information technology where the popular longs have underperformed significantly over the last few weeks.”

Hedge-Fund Holdings

Companies with high levels of hedge fund ownership have fallen about twice as much as the overall market. S&P 500 stocks that are most popular among the speculators have fallen 7.5 percent since April 2.

Hedge funds make up at least 30 percent of the shareholders in Allegion Plc, Dollar General Corp. and Constellation Brands Inc., the most among companies in the equities benchmark. About 37 percent of Allegion shares are owned by hedge funds, top among S&P 500 companies. The maker of security systems is almost 9 percent lower since April 2. H&R Block Inc., the tax software provider, is down 11 percent and is about 27 percent owned by hedge funds.

Pressure may be mounting on professional speculators with losses in individual stocks spurring more pain than they do for ordinary investors. The average hedge fund has 63 percent of its assets invested in the 10 largest holdings, twice as much as mutual funds, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. note from Feb. 20. About 28 percent of their holdings changed in the fourth quarter, an all-time low, the note said.

Earnings Season

Investors have been anticipating corporate earnings reports to gauge how much weather effected results. Profit for members of the S&P 500 probably fell 0.9 percent in the first quarter, analysts now forecast, after anticipating a 6.6 percent rise in January. Sales increased 2.6 percent, according to projections.

Analysts have reduced earnings estimates more than they usually do over the last three months, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by David Kostin. Average profit forecasts for S&P 500 companies fell about 4 percent in the first quarter, a percentage point more than normal, they wrote.

The selloff that began last week was sparked by growing concern that valuations may be too high as earnings season begins. The Nasdaq Composite trades at 35 times reported earnings of the companies in the index. That’s double the ratio for the S&P 500, which trades at about 17 times earnings.

Lackluster Earnings

Wells Fargo & Co. added 0.8 percent after the most profitable bank in 2013 said earnings rose 14 percent as fewer customers missed loan payments. Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. tumbled the most in three months yesterday after profit fell short of estimates.

“The market’s looking for a pretty lackluster earnings season and anything better than that will be viewed positively,” said Julian Chillingworth, who oversees about 22 billion pounds ($36.8 billion) at Rathbone Brothers Plc in London.

About 54 companies in the S&P 500 are scheduled to report results next week, including Coca-Cola Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Google Inc. and General Electric Co.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary April index of sentiment rose more than forecast, boosted by further improvement in the labor market that will provide some traction for the economy after a weather-related slowdown.

Volatility Gauge

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options prices known as the VIX, rose 8.3 percent after jumping 15 percent yesterday, the most since Feb. 3. The CBOE NDX Volatility Index of Nasdaq 100 contracts climbed 10 percent to the highest since December 2012, adding to a 16 percent surge yesterday.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index declined 0.7 percent, halting five days of gains and trimming this week’s advance to 1.2 percent, its fourth consecutive weekly gain. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland companies listed in Hong Kong slid 1.9 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index slid 0.2 percent.

The dollar was little changed at $1.38831 per euro, bringing this week’s decline to 1.3 percent. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the currency against 10 major counterparts, rose for the first time in six days, adding 0.1 percent. That trimmed the decline since April 4 to 1.1 percent.

Dollar Buying

“It’s dollar-buying and yen-buying in a sign of market jitters,” Brad Bechtel, managing director at Faros Trading LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, said in a phone interview. “More of the developed-market equity space is getting taken to the woodshed and sparked dollar- and yen-buying.”

Nickel rose for the 10th day, adding as much as 2.4 percent to $17,489 a metric ton, the highest since Feb. 20. Indonesia, the largest producer of the metal from mines, exports of ore nickel in January to encourage refining in the country.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March 18-19 meeting released this week damped speculation U.S. policy makers are moving toward raising interest rates.

A 0.5 percent rise in producer prices in March exceeded forecasts while also signaling the central bank still has room to keep its benchmark-interest-rate target at almost zero without spurring above-target inflation.

Treasuries headed for a weekly gain, with 10-year yields dropping the most in a month. Thirty-year yields sank to 3.48 percent, the lowest since July.

West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 0.6 percent to $104.47 a barrel in New York, as U.S. consumer confidence rose in April and gasoline demand strengthened. Brent’s premium to WTI shrank to the narrowest since September.

To contact the reporters on this story: Callie Bost in New York at cbost2@bloomberg.net; Jeremy Herron in New York at jherron8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Lynn Thomasson at lthomasson@bloomberg.net Jeremy Herron, Stephen Kirkland

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader @ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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