TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $3,870.00 dollars or +38.70 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $2,500.00 dollars or +50.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $6,370.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the chat room. You can read today's chat room logs for details about each one of my trades via price action trading from entry to exit (e.g. time, price, contract size) along with price action commentary as the trade traversed to its completion...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=128&t=1754

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) my thought process from trade to trade so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell. If you join the chat room and then you do not ask any questions about WRB Analysis in your own trading or you do not document (journal) your own thoughts from trade to trade...the chat room will not be useful to you. Chat room access instructions @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=234&t=2257

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Dragged Down By Citi And Other Banks


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Stocks continued their March swoon Thursday, and banks were among the biggest losers.

The Dow finished basically flat, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended in the red. The Nasdaq is now down for the year, although tech stocks took a back seat to the financial sector today.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve rejected Citigroup's capital plan, saying it was troubled by the bank's inability to predict how much it could lose in a severe economic downturn. It the bank from any dividend hikes or share repurchases for the next year.

Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) shares dropped over 5% Thursday.

Citi was among 30 large banks required to submit capital plans for an annual stress tests. The Fed approved 25 plans. Citi and four other smaller banks were turned down.

"$C Just can't get its house in order," said TexanGal on StockTwits.

Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) shares gave up earlier gains even though the bank announced an increase in its dividend and a new stock buyback plan. The firm also unveiled a $9.5 billion settlement with the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The deal settles all litigation between Bank of America and the agency over the use of mortgage-backed securities in the run up to the housing meltdown.

One trader on StockTwits thought the stock should have moved higher on the news.

"$BAC what a disgrace. We got a dividend and buy back and we settled a big lawsuit," said WarrenNewyork.

On the earnings front, Lululemon (LULU) popped after the yogawear maker reported quarterly increases in revenue and net income. The stock was up over 6% even though it also had a slide in same-store sales.

Brian Sozzi of Belus Capital Advisors, wrote that this decline for the athletic wear maker was a "once unthinkable development."

StockTwits user Dank104 wasn't too impressed by Lululemon's results.

"$LULU why is this moving up so much? earnings and forecast were better than expected, but not spectacular," he said.

GameStop (GME, Fortune 500) shares tanked after the video game retailer missed earnings estimates and gave a lackluster outlook for the current quarter. The company was hit hard by Wal-Mart's (WMT, Fortune 500) announcement last month that it would buy used video games, a business which is traditionally GameStop's bread and butter.

"$GME It's only a matter of time before GameStop dies off. Games are now sold through your system (PS3/4, XBOX..). More convenient," said MichaelStephen.

BlackBerry (BBRY) was downgraded to a "sell" by an analyst at Société Générale. Shares slumped on the news. The stock has had a rough go of it in recent years, but has rallied around 21% this year on hopes of a turnaround. BlackBerry is the second-best performer in CNNMoney's Tech 30 index. The company will report its latest quarterly results on Friday morning.

Accenture (ACN) dropped 5% after reporting a decline in quarterly net income. The technology services company was recently hired to work on the Obamacare website.

King Digital Entertainment (KING) shares dipped again. The maker of online game Candy Crush Saga took a beating in its initial public offering on Wednesday. Despite an IPO price of $22.50, the stock is trading under $19.

European markets finished mixed. The International Monetary Fund said it was throwing Ukraine an $18 billion lifeline.

Asian markets also ended mixed. Japan's Nikkei rose. But Chinese stocks fell. Shares of online giant Tencent (TCEHY) fell by nearly 6% in Hong Kong. Investors and traders have been growing concerned that valuations have become too rich for Chinese tech stocks ... much like investors in the U.S. have regarding the likes of Facebook (FB, Fortune 500) and Twitter (TWTR).





4:10 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market finished the Thursday session on a lower note with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-0.5%) trailing the other indices once again. The Nasdaq widened its week-to-date loss to 3.6% while the S&P 500 settled lower by 0.2%, extending its weekly decline to 0.9%.

Equity indices began the trading day on a cautious note despite two upbeat economic data points crossing ahead of the open. Namely, fourth quarter GDP was revised up to 2.6% from 2.4% while weekly initial claims fell to 311,000 from 320,000.

The release of this morning's data coincided with session lows in Treasuries, which rallied into the afternoon. The 10-yr note added three ticks, pressuring its yield down to 2.68% after notching a morning high at 2.71%.

Meanwhile, the early weakness in equities was brought upon by continued volatility in the biotechnology space. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 236.14, +1.05) was down nearly 3.0% during the initial 30 minutes of action before returning to its flat line, where it traded for the remainder of the trading day.

The early selling in biotechnology pressured the health care sector (-0.1%), but the influential group was able to erase the bulk of its early loss thanks in part to the 3.9% gain in the shares of Baxter (BAX 72.80, +2.72) after the company announced plans to split into two entities.

Even though health care settled in-line with the broader market, other top-weighted sectors were not as fortunate. Financials (-0.6%) ended at the bottom of the leaderboard while consumer discretionary (-0.5%) and technology (-0.6%) were not much stronger.

Notably, the financial sector lagged amid losses in some of its largest components. Citigroup (C 47.45, -2.71) slumped 5.4% after the Federal Reserve objected to the capital plan submitted by the bank.

Elsewhere, the discretionary sector was pressured by the likes of Amazon.com (AMZN 338.47, -4.94), eBay (EBAY 55.18, -0.42), and Netflix (NFLX 364.18, -8.10), while quick-service restaurants also finished mostly lower. Yum! Brands (YUM 73.20, -0.97) was a notable laggard, falling 1.3%.

Although most cyclical groups spent the bulk of the session in the red, that was not the case with the energy space (+0.9%), which outperformed throughout the day while crude oil rose 1.0% to $101.24/bbl.

On the countercyclical side, telecom services (+1.2%) and utilities (+0.8%) posted gains while consumer staples (-0.2%) ended in-line.

Despite the cautious disposition, participants did not show strong demand for volatility protection, sending the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 14.56, -0.37) lower by 2.5%.

Trading volume was a bit above average as 778 million shares changed hands at the NYSE.

Today's economic data included the final revision to Q4 GDP, weekly initial claims, and the February Pending Home Sales report:

Fourth quarter GDP was revised up to 2.6% in the third estimate from 2.4% in the second estimate. That matched the Briefing.com consensus estimate, but was down from a 4.1% gain in Q3 2013. Real final sales increased 2.7% in the fourth quarter. That was up from a 2.5% gain in Q3 2013 and above the previously reported 2.3% gain. It was also the strongest increase in real final sales since increasing 3.4% in Q2 2012. Looking at real final sales over the last four quarters (0.2%, 2.1%, 2.5%, and 2.7%), there is a definite upward moving trend. The year-over-year averages, however, put it below the 2.0% and 2.6% gains from 2011 and 2012.

The initial claims level fell to 311,000 for the week ending March 22 from an upwardly revised 321,000 (from 320,000) for the week ending March 15. The Briefing.com consensus expected the initial claims level to increase to 330,000. Over the past several months, excluding some seasonal volatility, the initial claims have been bounded between 330,000 and 340,000. That trend seems to have shifted lower over the past four weeks, with the initial claims level consistently falling below 330,000 and in the range of 310,000--320,000.
Pending home sales for February fell 0.8%, which was worse than the 0.2% decrease forecast by the Briefing.com consensus. Today's reading followed last month's revised decrease of 0.2% (from +0.1%).

Tomorrow, February Personal Income (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%), Personal Spending (consensus +0.3%), and Core PCE Prices (consensus +0.1%) will be released at 8:30 ET while the final reading of the March Michigan Sentiment survey (consensus 80.0) will cross the wires at 9:55 ET.

S&P 500 UNCH YTD
Nasdaq Composite -0.6% YTD
Russell 2000 -0.8% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.9% YTD

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Precious metals traded lower today on pressure from upbeat economic data.
Specifically, Q4 GDP was revised up to 2.6% from 2.4% and weekly initial claims fell to 311,000 to 320,000.
Apr gold fell below the $1300 level and brushed a session low of $1293.00 per ounce. It settled with a 0.7% loss at $1294.70 per ounce.
May silver traded as low as $19.63 per ounce in early morning action. It brushed a session high of $19.77 per ounce and settled at $19.70 per ounce, or 0.4% lower.
May crude oil traded above $101 per barrel and extended yesterday's gains.
The energy component touched a session high of $101.70 per barrel and settled with a 1.0% gain at $101.24 per barrel.
Apr natural gas gained support from better-than-anticipated inventory data. According to the EIA, inventories for the week ending Mar 21 showed a draw of 57 bcf when a smaller draw of 52-54 was expected. Natural gas rose to a session high of $4.57 per MMBtu and settled with a 3.2% gain at $4.53 per MMBtu.

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.3% with one hour remaining in the session. Given its current level, the benchmark index trades essentially where it began the session before sliding to a morning low of 1842.

After spending the first half of the session in a 14-point range, the benchmark index has been confined to a six-point range during afternoon action. Biotechnology contributed to some volatility in the early going, but the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 234.74, -0.35) enters the final hour of action just below its flat line.

Elsewhere, influential sectors like consumer discretionary (-0.6%), financials (-0.9%), and technology (-0.7%) have conspired to keep the benchmark index in the red. The three sectors remain at the bottom of the leaderboard and their final-hour performance will likely factor into determining where the major averages settle for the day.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Sideways action continues with the S&P 500 trading lower by 0.2%. Earlier today, participants received three economic data points that were somewhat mixed. Weekly initial claims were better-than-expected (311K versus Briefing.com consensus 330K); Q4 GDP met estimates (revised to 2.6% from 2.4%); and pending home sales missed (-0.8% versus Briefing.com consensus -0.2%).

Tomorrow, February Personal Income (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%), Personal Spending (consensus +0.3%), and Core PCE Prices (consensus +0.1%) will be released at 8:30 ET while the final reading of the March Michigan Sentiment survey (consensus 80.0) will cross the wires at 9:55 ET.

Next week's data is not expected to receive too much attention with the exception of the March Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will be released on Friday at 8:30 ET.

1:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.3% as it hovers near levels that have held for the past 90 minutes. Not much change has taken place among individual sectors as energy (+0.7%) remains in the lead while the other cyclical groups trade broadly lower.

Unlike energy, the other commodity-related sector-materials (-0.6%)-trails the broader market. Dow Chemical (DOW 47.84, -1.22) weighs, trading lower by 2.5% while steelmakers display relative strength with Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX 45.88, +0.40) trading up 0.9%.

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market has been struggling to make up its mind about where it wants to go today. Thus far, it has been meandering between negative and positive territory in a trade that once again features the underperformance of the Nasdaq Composite (-0.4%).

One thing that has been evident this week is that the market's bullish momentum isn't running like it once did. Participants are struggling to understand why, so they are thinking twice before chasing things at this juncture knowing that the financials aren't acting well and that the beaten down and previously momentum-driven biotech stocks have yet to attract any significant buy-the dip interest.

Separately, the Treasury market is holding pretty firm today amid the non-committal action in the stock market. The 10-yr note is up five ticks, lowering its yield to 2.675%. Consistent with this week's activity, the $29 bln 7-yr note auction was solid. It drew a high yield of 2.258% and a 2.59 bid-to-cover ratio that was in-line with the prior 12-auction average.

1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] At midday, equity indices hover in the red with the tech-heavy Nasdaq (-0.5%) displaying the largest decline. The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.2% with six sectors trading in the red while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.1%) outperforms.

The stock market began the trading day in negative territory despite receiving some upbeat economic data ahead of the opening bell. Specifically, fourth quarter GDP was revised up to 2.6% from 2.4% while weekly initial claims fell to 311,000 from 320,000.

Interestingly, Treasuries notched their lows immediately following the economic news and have been climbing steadily since. Currently, the benchmark 10-yr yield sits near 2.67% after breaching the 2.71% level in reaction to this morning's data.

The early weakness in equities was brought on by continued volatility in the biotechnology space. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 234.99, -0.10) is currently little changed after being down as much as 2.7% in the morning.

Even though the biotech ETF has alternated between gains and losses, the broader health care sector (-0.1%) has held up relatively well. Baxter (BAX 74.07, +3.99) has provided the third-largest sector with a measure of support as the stock trades higher by 5.7% after the company announced plans to separate into two entities.

Outside of health care, other heavily-weighted sectors like consumer discretionary (-0.5%), financials (-0.9%), and technology (-0.6%) can be found among the laggards.

In the financial sector, Citigroup (C 47.30, -2.86) is the weakest performer among the majors after the Federal Reserve objected to the capital plan submitted by the bank. Other influential sector components like Bank of America (BAC 16.98, -0.19), JPMorgan Chase (JPM 59.43, -0.47), and Morgan Stanley (MS 30.72, -0.49) hold losses between 0.8% and 1.6%.

It is also worth mentioning that equities and the dollar/yen pair have been moving in sync once again today. The dollar/yen pair crossed the 102.40 level after this morning's data and has been retreating since then. Currently, the pair sits in the 102.10 area.

With stocks under pressure, participants are showing demand for volatility protection. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 15.10, +0.18) is higher by 1.2%.

Today's economic data included the final revision to Q4 GDP, weekly initial claims, and the February Pending Home Sales report:

Fourth quarter GDP was revised up to 2.6% in the third estimate from 2.4% in the second estimate. That matched the Briefing.com consensus estimate, but was down from a 4.1% gain in Q3 2013. Real final sales increased 2.7% in the fourth quarter. That was up from a 2.5% gain in Q3 2013 and above the previously reported 2.3% gain. It was also the strongest increase in real final sales since increasing 3.4% in Q2 2012. Looking at real final sales over the last four quarters (0.2%, 2.1%, 2.5%, and 2.7%), there is a definite upward moving trend. The year-over-year averages, however, put it below the 2.0% and 2.6% gains from 2011 and 2012.
The initial claims level fell to 311,000 for the week ending March 22 from an upwardly revised 321,000 (from 320,000) for the week ending March 15. The Briefing.com consensus expected the initial claims level to increase to 330,000. Over the past several months, excluding some seasonal volatility, the initial claims have been bounded between 330,000 and 340,000. That trend seems to have shifted lower over the past four weeks, with the initial claims level consistently falling below 330,000 and in the range of 310,000--320,000.
Pending home sales for February fell 0.8%, which was worse than the 0.2% decrease forecast by the Briefing.com consensus. Today's reading followed last month's revised decrease of 0.2% (from +0.1%).

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain near their recent levels with the Nasdaq (-0.5%) showing relative weakness while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.1%) outperforms. Notably, the current standing of the major averages is a good reflection of the performance so far this week.

Including its current loss, the Nasdaq sports a week-to-date decline of 2.9% versus a more modest downtick of 0.2% for the Dow. For its part, the S&P 500 (-0.3%) is lower by 0.6% week-to-date.

Today, the Dow outperforms as 14 of its 30 components register gains. ExxonMobil (XOM 95.63, +0.93) and AT&T (T 34.99, +0.38) are both up near 1.0% while the weakest performer-IBM (IBM 191.13, -1.49)-holds a loss of 0.8%.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.4%) has returned near its early lows amid considerable weakness among financials and the return of sellers in the biotech space.

Most notably, the financial sector has been trailing the broader market throughout the morning and now trades lower by 1.1%. Citigroup (C 47.31, -2.85) is the weakest performer among the majors after the Federal Reserve objected to the capital plan submitted by the bank. Other influential sector components like Bank of America (BAC 16.91, -0.27), JPMorgan Chase (JPM 59.18, -0.73), and Morgan Stanley (MS 30.70, -0.52) hold losses between 1.2% and 1.7%.

Elsewhere, biotechnology has returned into a position of relative weakness with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 233.79, -1.30) down 0.6%.

Also of note, the retreat that has taken place over the past hour has been accompanied by a wave of yen strength that has knocked the dollar/yen pair from 102.40 into the 102.00 area.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain near their flat lines with the S&P 500 trading lower by 0.1% while the Nasdaq (-0.5%) continues showing relative weakness.

Of the six cyclical groups, the energy sector (+1.0%) is the lone advancer thanks to a 1.3% gain in crude oil ($101.59/bbl). Meanwhile, most remaining growth-sensitive sectors display losses between 0.4% and 0.6% while industrials (-0.1%) trade in-line with the S&P 500.

The industrial space has received modest support from defense contractors while transports trade in mixed fashion. The PHLX Defense Index is higher by 0.1% while the Dow Jones Transportation Average trades down 0.1%.

10:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The past hour saw a swift recovery in the major indices that put the three averages back near their flat lines.

Biotechnology slumped at the open and pressured the broader market, but the subsequent rebound contributed to the recovery in the major averages. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 236.25, +1.16) is higher by 0.5% after being down as much as 2.7% during the first 30 minutes of action.

At this juncture, the four countercyclical groups-consumer staples (+0.2%), health care (+0.1%), telecom services (+0.8%), and utilities (+0.3%)-trade in the green alongside the energy sector (+0.9%) while the other five groups hover in the red with financials (-0.5%) and technology (-0.3%) displaying the largest losses.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Gold and silver futures have been in the red this morning, showing modest weakness
Apr gold is now -0.6% at $1296.30/oz, while May silver is -0.7% at $19.65/oz
Crude oil slid lower overnight and fell to near the $100/barrel level. Following that move, crude has been steadily climbing higher.
Apr crude oil is now near its session high and is currently up 1.3% at $101.52/barrel
Natural gas futures rallied just after the open of floor trading and was about 0.7% higher at $4.43/MMBtu just ahead of inventory data
Following the data, nat gas spiked to a new session high and is now +1.6% at $4.46/MMBtu (May contract)
May copper futures rose to as high as $3.00/lb, but have since pulled back modestly.

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.3% while the Nasdaq (-0.4%) continues trailing the benchmark index.

Pending home sales for February fell 0.8%, which was worse than the 0.2% decrease forecast by the Briefing.com consensus. Today's reading followed last month's revised decrease of 0.2% (from +0.1%).

9:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages began the session in the red with the Nasdaq (-0.8%) leading the early decline once again. The tech-heavy index opened the trading day behind its peers amid continued weakness in biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 230.21, -4.88) trades lower by 2.1% while the broader health care sector holds a loss of 0.9%.

In part, the health care space is being kept from seeing additional losses by the relative strength of Baxter (BAX 73.39, +3.31), which trades higher by 4.8% after announcing plans to split the company in two.

On the upside, the telecom services sector (+0.2%) is the lone group trading in the green at this juncture. Treasuries are little changed with the 10-yr yield at 2.69%.

9:11 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.30. The stock market is on track to begin today's session on a cautious note as futures on the S&P 500 trade three points below fair value. Index futures held gains during the overnight session and notched fresh highs as European markets opened for action before sliding to new lows during the past 45 minutes.

Interestingly, the retreat took place following some upbeat economic data as the final reading of Q4 GDP (+2.6%) matched the Briefing.com consensus estimate while weekly initial claims (311K versus Briefing.com consensus 330K) beat estimates. It is also worth mentioning that the real final sales component of GDP was revised up to 2.7% from 2.3%, representing the strongest reading since Q2 2012.

Treasuries retreated into the 8:30 ET release of economic data, but returned to their flat lines after the data points hit. Currently, the benchmark 10-yr yield hovers right above 2.70%.

One more data point remains on the schedule in the form of the Pending Home Sales report for February (expected -0.2%), which is set to cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

9:01 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.00. The S&P 500 futures trade three points below fair value.

The major Asian bourses ended mixed. Stimulus talk continued in Japan, but there were some inconsistencies. A central bank source quoted by Nikkei said the BoJ is expecting a soft first quarter, but improvements in subsequent periods would keep the central bank on hold. Meanwhile, Economy Minister Akira Amari said the BoJ can maximize the impact of easing measures by surprising the markets. Elsewhere, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas held its key rate unchanged at 3.5%, as expected, while the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) left its benchmark rate unchanged at 1.875%, also in line with expectations.

Japan's Nikkei gained 1.0%, closing at its best level in two weeks. Toyota Motor added 2.0% after announcing a $3.5 billion share repurchase program.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.2% with technology shares leading to the downside. Internet gaming company Tencent Holdings tumbled 5.9% following yesterday's disappointing debut by peer King Digital Entertainment.
China's Shanghai Composite lost 0.8%, slipping back below the 50-day moving average. Financials outperformed as China Citic Bank gained 1.9% and Shanghai Pudong Development added 1.2%.

Major European indices trade mostly lower with Great Britain's FTSE (-0.6%) displaying the largest loss. Participants received several data points. Eurozone M3 money supply expanded 1.3% year-over-year, as expected (prior 1.2%), while private loans declined 2.2% year-over-year (expected -2.1%, previous -2.3%). Great Britain's Retail Sales rose 1.7% month-over-month (consensus 0.5%, prior -2.0%) while the year-over-year reading increased 3.7% (expected 2.5%, previous 3.9%). Separately, Core Retail Sales increased 1.8% month-over-month (expected 0.3%, previous -2.0%) while the year-over-year reading jumped 4.2% (consensus 2.8%, prior 4.4%). French Consumer Confidence improved to 88 from 85 (consensus 85). Italy's Business Confidence ticked up to 99.2 from 99.1 (expected 99.5).

Among news of note, the International Monetary Fund came to a preliminary agreement that would provide Ukraine with $14-18 billion in emergency aid with the potential to increase the total package to $27 billion if Ukraine undertakes reforms required by the IMF.

Spain's IBEX is lower by 0.1%. Construction names Acciona and Sacyr lead with gains close to 2.5% apiece.
Germany's DAX is lower by 0.4%. Producers of basic materials trade mixed with ThyssenKrupp and Lanxess sporting respective losses of 1.5% and 0.2% while K+S trades higher by 1.6%.
In France, the CAC holds a loss of 0.5% with Alstom leading the retreat. The stock trades lower by 6.0% amid reports the company is facing an expanded corruption probe. On the upside, technology names outperform with Cap Gemini and Gemalto both up near 0.4%.
Great Britain's FTSE trades down 0.6% with miners on the defensive. Antofagasta, Fresnillo, and Randgold Resources are down between 1.9% and 3.9%. Consumer names outperform with British Sky Broadcasting and Associated British Foods both up near 1.0%.

8:33 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +0.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.00. The S&P 500 futures continue trading within a point of fair value.

The third estimate of fourth quarter GDP indicated growth of 2.6%, which was in-line with the Briefing.com consensus. Meanwhile, the fourth quarter GDP Deflator was left unchanged at 1.6%, as expected.

Separately, the latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 311,000, which was lower than the 330,000 that had been expected by the Briefing.com consensus. Today's tally was below the revised prior week count of 321,000 (from 320,000). As for continuing claims, they rose to 2.823 million from 2.876 million.

8:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -0.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.00. U.S. equity futures are little changed amid mixed action overseas. The S&P 500 futures trade less than a point below fair value.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended on a mixed note. China's Shanghai Composite -0.8%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.2%, and Japan's Nikkei +1.0%.
In economic data:
Japan's foreign bonds buying report indicated net sales in the amount of JPY395.50 billion (prior net purchases of JPY153.40 billion).
South Korea's Consumer Confidence held steady at 108 (expected 110).
New Zealand's trade surplus expanded to $818 million from $286 million (expected $600 million).
In news:
Stimulus talk continued in Japan, but there were some inconsistencies. A central bank source quoted by Nikkei said the BoJ is expecting a soft first quarter, but improvements in subsequent periods would keep the central bank on hold. Meanwhile, Economy Minister Akira Amari said the BoJ can maximize the impact of easing measures by surprising the markets.

Major European indices trade mostly lower. Great Britain's FTSE -0.5%, France's CAC -0.2%, and Germany's DAX -0.2%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB -0.1% and Spain's IBEX +0.3%.
Participants received several data points:
Eurozone M3 money supply expanded 1.3% year-over-year, as expected (prior 1.2%) while private loans declined 2.2% year-over-year (expected -2.1%, previous -2.3%).
Great Britain's Retail Sales rose 1.7% month-over-month (consensus 0.5%, prior -2.0%) while the year-over-year reading increased 3.7% (expected 2.5%, previous 3.9%). Separately, Core Retail Sales increased 1.8% month-over-month (expected 0.3%, previous -2.0%) while the year-over-year reading jumped 4.2% (consensus 2.8%, prior 4.4%).
French Consumer Confidence improved to 88 from 85 (consensus 85).
Italy's Business Confidence ticked up to 99.2 from 99.1 (expected 99.5).
Among news of note:
The International Monetary Fund came to a preliminary agreement that would provide Ukraine with $14-18 billion in emergency aid with the potential to increase the total package to $27 billion if Ukraine undertakes reforms required by the IMF.

In U.S. corporate news:

Accenture (ACN 83.70, +0.73): +0.9% despite missing on earnings and revenue.
Baxter (BAX 82.00, +11.92): +17.0% after announcing plans to split the company into two separate businesses.
Citigroup (C 47.19, -2.97): -5.9% after the Federal Reserve objected to the capital plan submitted by the bank.
Lululemon (LULU 47.79, -0.44): -0.9% after reporting results just ahead of previously-lowered guidance and issuing below-consensus guidance
Realty Income (O 39.65, -1.13): -2.8% after the company priced 12 million shares of stock at $39.96 per share.
Signet Jewelers (SIG 101.22, +2.87): +2.9% after beating the Capital IQ earnings estimate by three cents and raising the quarterly dividend 20.0% to $0.18.

Weekly initial claims (Briefing.com consensus 330K) and the third estimate of Q4 GDP (consensus 2.6%) will be released at 8:30 ET while the Pending Home Sales report for February (expected -0.2%) will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

6:44 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.50.

6:44 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...14622.89...+145.70...+1.00%. Hang Seng...21834.45...-53.30...-0.20%.

6:44 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6579.23...-26.10...-0.40%. DAX...9452.31...+3.70...0.00.

Treasuries Head for First Monthly Loss This Year on Fed Outlook

By Wes Goodman Mar 27, 2014 11:44 PM ET

Treasuries headed for their first monthly loss this year before a government report forecast to show consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the U.S. economy, is increasing.

Shorter-term borrowing costs rose as traders speculated growth will be enough to lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in 2015. The difference between five- and 30-year yields narrowed to 1.79 percentage points this week, the smallest spread since 2009. Fed Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said the central bank will probably raise interest rates in the second half of next year.

“There’s more probability of a bearish market in Treasuries,” said Wontark Doh, the head of overseas fixed-income investment at Samsung Asset Management Co., South Korea’s largest private bond investor.

Treasuries were little changed, with the benchmark 10-year yield at 2.68 percent as of 12:30 p.m. in Tokyo, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The average over the past decade is 3.46 percent. The price of the 2.75 percent security due in February 2024 was 100 19/32.

Treasuries have fallen 0.1 percent this month, based on the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index (BUSY), set for their first decline since December.

Doh said he’d consider buying Treasuries if the 10-year yield rises to 2.8 percent or 2.9 percent. Samsung Asset manages the equivalent of $105.7 billion.

Japan’s 10-year yield was little changed at 0.62 percent. Australia’s fell one basis point to 4.08 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Little Changed

The Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index (BGSV) is little changed for March. It has risen 3 percent in the first three months of the year, poised for its best quarterly performance in almost three years.

U.S. personal spending probably rose 0.3 percent in February, following a 0.4 percent gain in January, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists before the Commerce Department report today. Personal income also increased 0.3 percent, based on the responses.

The report contains the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, which probably slowed to a year-on-year rate of 0.9 percent from 1.2 percent in January, according to the survey. The figure has been below the Fed’s 2 percent target for almost two years.

Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan will confirm a drop in consumer confidence for March after reporting the decline on a preliminary basis two weeks ago, a separate survey shows.

April Rally

While Treasuries may fall later in 2014, April may start with a rally, said Weihan Chen, a bond trader at Hontai Life Insurance Co. in Taipei.

Some investors may buy as the month and the first quarter close to put the bonds and notes sold this year into their portfolios, Chen said. A 3.3 percent decline in new home sales reported earlier this week shows some areas of the economy are still “disappointing,” he said.

“I’m bullish in the short term,” he said, forecasting 10-year yields will fall to 2.6 percent in the first half of next week.

Inflation may quicken, the Fed’s Evans said.

“I do tend to think inflation’s going to pick up and that will be the reason why we ultimately raise rates,” Evans, who doesn’t vote on policy this year, said in a Bloomberg Television interview with Betty Liu today in Hong Kong. “My own take is it’s most likely to be in the second half of 2015. If I had my druthers, I’d wait a little bit longer than that.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Wes Goodman in Singapore at wgoodman@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Garfield Reynolds at greynolds1@bloomberg.net Jonathan Annells, Pavel Alpeyev

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader @ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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