TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $520.00 dollars or +5.20 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $625.00 dollars or +12.50 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $1,145.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the chat room. You can read today's chat room logs for details about each one of my trades via price action trading from entry to exit (e.g. time, price, contract size) along with price action commentary as the trade traversed to its completion...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=128&t=1750

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) my thought process from trade to trade so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell. If you join the chat room and then you do not ask any questions about WRB Analysis in your own trading or you do not document (journal) your own thoughts from trade to trade...the chat room will not be useful to you. Chat room access instructions @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=234&t=2257

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Slump At End Of Strong Week


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Stocks went on a wild ride Friday, but still finished the week higher.

The S&P 500 hit a record high right out of the gate. The rally faded almost immediately. The index bounced around for most of the day before ending lower. The Dow Jones industrial average also closed in the red, erasing a gain of more than 100 points from earlier in the day. The Nasdaq was the hardest hit, falling more than 1%.

The choppy trading came amid the simultaneous expiration of four types of futures and options contracts -- a quarterly phenomenon known as quadruple witching. "That's the main driver of the day," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital.

He noted that the only other major market news was that 29 of the 30 big banks passed the Federal Reserve's stress test. Regional bank Zions (ZION) was the only one that did not and its shares fell nearly 5%.

Despite Friday's turbulence, the major indexes all enjoyed a strong week. The Dow and S&P 500 are both gained more than 1%.

Markets were rattled Wednesday after Fed chair Janet Yellen suggested that the central bank could begin hiking interest rates sooner than expected. But worries about central bank policy quickly faded and the market rebounded Thursday.

The latest reading on the CNNMoney Fear & Greed index shows investors are getting greedy once more.

But the mood isn't quite so perky in Russia, where the stock market and ruble are under pressure after the U.S. announced sanctions against more high-ranking Russian individuals and a bank. Western nations are trying to put pressure on Russia after it annexed Crimea, a region in southern Ukraine.

The impact on global markets from the sanctions "will be real but not drastic," according to analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.

The analysts said capital flight from Russia "will likely be extremely high" in the first quarter and the sanctions will "send a chill through the Russian banking sector." But the Americans and Europeans are unlikely to impose on Moscow the kind of crippling sanctions they used against Iran, according to Eurasia.

Related: Risks in focus as China's economy slows

There was little U.S. economic or corporate news on the docket Friday.

Before the opening bell, Tiffany (TIF) reported full-year earnings and sales that fell short of forecasts. The stock ended down slightly but had traded higher throughout the day, a move that surprised one trader on StockTwits.

"$TIF ... Missed on ER, why is this stock rising," wrote IMMED.

Shares of Darden Restaurants (DRI, Fortune 500), the parent company of Red Lobster and Olive Garden, were higher despite poor same-store sales.

Nike (NKE, Fortune 500) shares slid after the company said earnings could be squeezed over the next few quarters.

Some traders said Nike may be facing a tough challenge from rival sports apparel maker Under Armour (UA), which has posted strong growth in the past few years.

"$NKE is losing major market share to Under Armour. $UA is the goto brand for the kids. They don't want to wear their parents brand," said NJDad.

But others believe there's enough demand for both companies to continue growing.

"$UA is up 850% since its IPO. $NKE is up 250% for the same time. Room for growth for both. http://stks.co/s07lI, said ivanhoff.

Symantec (SYMC, Fortune 500)shares plunged after the company fired its CEO. The stock was the worst performer in CNNMoney's Tech 30 index Friday and is now the biggest loser in the index for the year.

Still, a few traders on StockTwits said the market is overreacting.

"$SYMC I understand that there is dark clouds over the company but 13% overdone," said madpopoff.

European markets ended higher. Asian markets mostly closed with gains. China's yuan fell to a one-year low against the dollar earlier this week as the nation's central bank allows the currency to trade more freely. Investors have also been worried about bankruptcies in China after the nation's first corporate bond default last month.





4:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market finished an upbeat week on a lower note with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite losing 1.0% while the S&P 500 shed 0.3% with four sectors ending in the red.

Equities began the day on a strong note with no economic data to influence the trading sentiment; however, quadruple witching and index rebalancing contributed to additional volatility and volume. With nearly two billion shares changing hands at the New York Stock Exchange, today's final volume was less than 500 million below the 2.44 billion collective total registered between Monday and Thursday.

The S&P 500 surged out of the gate, notching a fresh intraday record high at 1884.00, but was unable to establish a new closing high above the March 7 settlement of 1878.04. After spiking at the open, the benchmark average spent the rest of the session in a steady retreat.

While the S&P 500 did not slip into the red until just before 14:00 ET, the Nasdaq underperformed from the open, making its first appearance in negative territory around 10:00 ET. Biotechnology pressured the index from the early going with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 246.01, -12.24) spending the session in a steady slide before settling lower by 4.7% on heaviest volume since October 2005. The ETF ended 9.9% below its February high, trimming its 2014 gain to 8.4%. In addition to pressuring the Nasdaq, biotechnology contributed to considerable weakness in the health care sector (-1.5%), which ended well behind the remaining nine sectors.

Although no other sector posted a loss larger than 0.6%, other top-weighted groups like technology (-0.5%) and consumer discretionary (-0.6%) underperformed while financials (+0.01%) finished a bit ahead of the broader market after being up as much as 1.1% at the start of the session.

Losses in the technology sector were paced by chipmakers with Intel (INTC 25.17, -0.25) falling 1.0% while the broader PHLX Semiconductor Index lost 0.9%. On the software side, shares of Symantec (SYMC 18.20, -2.71) caught a virus, plunging 12.9% after the company unexpectedly terminated Chief Executive Officer Steve Bennett, naming Michael Brown interim president and CEO.

Elsewhere, the discretionary space was pressured by homebuilders and Nike (NKE 75.21, -4.06). Top-weighted homebuilders posted losses across the board with the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 24.17, -0.40) slumping 1.6%. For its part, Nike tumbled 5.1% after its cautious outlook overshadowed above-consensus earnings and revenue.

Even though three of the four largest sectors underperformed notably, the broader market was kept from registering additional losses by the relative strength among the second-tier sectors. Consumer staples (+0.03%), energy (+0.3%), and industrials (+0.1%) all finished ahead of the broader market. Materials (+0.5%), telecom services (-0.03%), and utilities (+0.8%) also ended ahead of the S&P 500, but their impact was limited since three sectors account for just 9.9% of the entire market.

With stocks under pressure, participants displayed demand for volatility protection, sending the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 15.00, +0.48) higher by 3.3% after the near-term volatility measure tested early March lows at the start of the session.

Treasuries spent the entire day in a steady climb from their morning lows. The benchmark 10-yr yield fell three basis points to 2.74%.

Russell 2000 +2.8% YTD
Nasdaq Composite +2.4% YTD
S&P 500 +1.0% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.7% YTD

Week in Review: Fed Chair Yellen Defines "Considerable Time"

All of the fear and loathing about the Sunday referendum in Crimea was set aside on Monday. Stock markets in Europe and the US rallied, not because there was a de-escalation of the standoff in Ukraine, but because there was no escalation of the standoff that would threaten global economic growth. As expected, Crimeans voted overwhelmingly in favor (95.5% of votes cast) of joining the Russian Federation. As expected, the outcome of the referendum was not accepted as valid by President Obama and EU leaders. Still, there were two points of relief that sparked a short-covering rally on Monday: (1) Military force has not been used and (2) hard-hitting economic sanctions had yet to be imposed. The early rush of buying activity was helped along by a positive showing out of China's stock market (+1.0%), which responded favorably to news of a new urbanization plan. Separately, there were reports that the People's Bank of China would expand the yuan's daily trading band to 2% from 1%.

The major averages finished the Tuesday session with solid gains, but outside of a few pockets of considerable relative strength, most sectors could be classified as reluctant participants in the daylong rally. Small caps led the way with the Russell 2000 climbing 1.5% while the S&P 500 advanced 0.7% with nine sectors posting gains. Prior to the open, equity indices were on track for a lower start to the session, but that changed in a hurry when comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin began making the rounds. Although Mr. Putin did not provide any groundbreaking insight, European markets and equity futures rallied when he said Russia does not want to see a break-up of Ukraine.

Wednesday's session ended in the red with small caps displaying the largest decline. The Russell 2000 lost 0.7% while the S&P 500 settled lower by 0.6% with all ten sectors ending in the red. Equity indices did not show much change during the first half of the session as participants awaited the latest policy statement from the Federal Reserve, but activity picked up considerably after the release of the directive. In response to a question as to what the Fed means by "considerable time" for keeping the current target range for the federal funds rate after the asset purchase program ends, Fed Chair Yellen said "probably six months." Selling activity accelerated after the remark and the fed funds futures market, which, last week, expected the first hike to take place in July, saw the expectations shift to April.

On Thursday, the major averages finished on an upbeat note with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.7%) in the lead. Small caps underperformed with the Russell 2000 adding 0.1% while the S&P 500 settled higher by 0.6% with nine sectors posting gains. Stocks began the day on the defensive amid cautious action overseas, but were quick to erase their early losses. The S&P 500 climbed out of the red during the first hour of action with most European indices following suit. The early advance was powered by the heavily-weighted financial (+1.7%) and technology (+0.7%) sectors, both of which continued their outperformance into the close. Outside of the two, the telecom services sector (+2.5%) was the only other area of relative strength, but it bears noting the group accounts for just 3.0% of the entire S&P 500.

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Apr gold rose for the first time in five sessions, gaining support from a weaker dollar index. The yellow metal brushed a session high of $1340.50 per ounce in early morning action but pulled back slightly as the session progressed. It eventually settled with a 0.4% gain at $1335.80 per ounce, booking a 3.1% loss for the week.
May silver, however, slipped into negative territory shortly after equity markets opened. It retreated from its session high of $20.50 per ounce and settled at its session low of $20.31 per ounce, or 0.6% lower. Today's decline brought losses for the week to 5.1%.
May crude oil traded in positive territory today. It lifted from its session low of $99.11 per barrel and peaked at $100.25 per barrel. It eventually settled 0.6% higher at $99.48 per barrel, booking a 0.9% gain for the week.
Apr natural gas extended yesterday's losses, dipping to a session low of $4.29 per MMBtu in mid-morning action. It settled 1.4% lower at $4.31 per MMbtu, booking a weekly loss of 2.5%.

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.2% with one hour remaining in the final session of the week. Assuming the current standing holds, the benchmark index will end the week with a gain of 1.5%.

However, that assumption may not be on solid footing considering some spring cleaning is taking place in the options market in the form of quadruple witching with index rebalancing also expected to take place at the close.

Thanks to quad witching, today's trading volume has already eclipsed prior totals of the week and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if the final tally ended up being higher than the collective totals registered between Monday and Thursday. The NYSE saw 2.44 billion shares change hands during the first four sessions of the week.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.2%) sits on its lowest level of the session with four sectors trading in the red. Health care (-1.6%), which lagged from the opening bell, remains behind the other nine sectors while technology (-0.5%), consumer discretionary (-0.3%), and telecom services (-0.3%) display slimmer losses.

On the upside, the financial sector was up as much as 1.1% during the first two hours of action, but has trimmed its gain to 0.1%. With three of the top four largest sectors in the red, the financial space is the last pocket of relative strength among the leading groups. Together, the top four sectors account for 58.0% of the S&P 500.

Elsewhere, consumer staples (+0.4%), energy (+0.5%), industrials (+0.2%), and materials (+0.4%) continue showing relative strength, but these four groups constitute just over 35.0% of the entire market.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain near their lowest levels of the day with the Nasdaq (-0.6%) continuing its underperformance while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.2%) remains in the lead.

Looking deeper into the price-weighted index reveals gains among 20 of 30 index components. Five index members trade with gains of at least 1.0% and the top-weighted component, Visa (V 226.01, +4.19) trades higher by 1.9% after a federal court of appeals upheld 'swipe fees' charged by card companies.

On the downside, Nike (NKE 76.09, -3.18) is the weakest component, down 4.0% after issuing cautious guidance.

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major indices have run into some selling pressure that has knocked them well off their best levels of the day. There wasn't a specific news catalyst for the downdraft and most sectors have pulled back simultaneously, so it looks to be a function of general profit-taking activity.

With today being a quadruple witching options expiration day, it is worth noting that volatility can be expected. The underperformance of the biotech space today has been a nettlesome factor that has perhaps spurred the profit-taking interest considering the biotech sector has often been held out as a pocket of speculative froth in the stock market.

Whatever the case may be, it would be entirely remiss not to mention that the S&P 500 broke out to a new all-time high this morning, which one might consider a somewhat remarkable feat given the geopolitical noise, the China slowdown concerns, and the interest rate hike fears that have been overhanging factors this week.

12:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] At midday, the major averages trade in mixed fashion with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.5%) and S&P 500 (+0.3%) holding gains while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%) lags.

Equity indices began this quadruple witching (index futures, index options, stock options, and stock futures expiration) Friday on an upbeat note with the S&P 500 setting a fresh intraday record high at 1884.00 before retreating from that level.

The benchmark index continues holding the bulk of its gain at this juncture while the retreat from early highs has been a bit more pronounced in the Nasdaq.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq underperforms amid considerable weakness in biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 251.40, -6.85) trades lower by 2.7%, putting the ETF at levels last seen in early February. Even though the ETF has slid 9.0% from its mid-February high, it remains higher by 9.5% so far in 2014 after surging 65.5% last year.

With biotech on the defensive, the health care sector (-0.7%) is the weakest group of the day while other top-weighted sectors trade mixed with respect to the broader market. The financial sector (+0.6%), which was up as much as 1.1%, continues outperforming while technology (unch) and consumer discretionary (+0.2%) lag.

Notably, the discretionary has been pressured by Nike (NKE76.71, -2.56) after the company issued cautious guidance to go along with its better-than-expected quarterly report. Other apparel names, meanwhile, are holding up well despite a cloudy outlook provided by a major sector component.

Elsewhere among discretionary shares, homebuilders lag with the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 24.36, -0.21) trading lower by 0.9%.

Even though three of the four top-weighted sectors trail the broader market, other large groups like consumer staples (+0.7%), energy (+0.8%), and industrials (+0.6%) outperform.

Treasuries have been climbing steadily from their morning lows with the 10-yr note currently sitting at a session high. The benchmark note trades higher by five ticks with its yield down two basis points at 2.76%.

The first half of today's session has already produced trading volume comparable with full-session totals from the remainder of the week as 632 million shares have already changed hands on the NYSE floor.

There was no economic data of note reported today.

12:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue holding their recent levels with the S&P 500 trading higher by 0.5%.

Nine sectors are showing gains at this juncture while the health care space (-0.5%) remains pressured by biotechnology (IBB -2.4%). Elsewhere, the consumer discretionary sector (+0.3%) also lags with Nike (NKE 76.68, -2.59) contributing to the relative weakness. Interestingly, Nike's cautious guidance has not put much pressure on other apparel names as the industry group trades mostly higher.

Outside of Nike, homebuilders also weigh on the sector with the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 24.33, -0.24) trading lower by 1.1%. The ETF hovers near its mid-March low, which coincides with levels seen through most of January. The ETF sports a month-to-date loss of 7.6% and is lower by roughly 2.0% since the start of the year.

11:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Recent action saw the Nasdaq return to its flat line while the Dow (+0.6%) and S&P 500 (+0.5%) continue holding gains. Small caps, meanwhile, trade ahead of the three major averages with the Russell 2000 displaying an increase of 0.8%.

Including today's gain, the Russell is on track to add 2.2% for the week while the Dow and S&P 500 are also showing similar week-to-date gains. The Nasdaq, however, is likely to end the week behind the other indices as it trades up 1.7% this week.

With regard to individual sectors, financials (+3.9%) and telecom services (+4.0%) are on pace to finish the week ahead of the remaining sectors while utilities (+0.6%) and consumer discretionary (+1.0%) round out the bottom of this week's leaderboard.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain near their recent levels with the S&P 500 (+0.5%) trading roughly three points below its session high of 1884.00, which marked a new intraday record high for the benchmark index.

Interestingly, top-weighted sectors trade in mixed fashion with respect to the index as financials (+1.0%) outperform while consumer discretionary (+0.3%), health care (-0.5%), and technology (+0.2%) lag. Despite the underperformance among the largest groups, other influential sectors like consumer staples (+0.9%), energy (+1.0%), and industrials (+0.8%) have picked up the slack.

With the benchmark index trading higher, participants are not showing much interest in volatility protection. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 13.87, -0.65) is lower by 4.5% as it hovers near levels last seen at the start of the month.

11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have retreated from their early highs with the Nasdaq (-0.2%) sliding into the red amid considerable weakness in biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 250.61, -7.54) trades down 3.0%, which puts the ETF back near early February levels. Even though the ETF has surrendered 9.0% from its mid-February high, it remains higher by 9.5% so far in 2014 after soaring 65.5% in 2013.

The underperformance of biotechnology also weighs on the health care sector (-0.5%), which is the only group trading lower at this juncture.

On the upside, utilities (+1.3%) and financials (+0.9%) remain in the lead.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

A weaker dollar index is supporting a move higher by crude oil and gold this morning.
Apr gold touched a session high of $1340.50 per ounce moments before equity markets opened. It is currently up 0.4% at $1335.10 per ounce.
May silver pulled back into the red from its session high of $20.50 per ounce set in early morning action. It is now down 0.4% at $20.35 per ounce.
May crude oil has been positive all morning, trading as high as $99.76 per barrel in recent action. It is now up 0.9% at $99.74 per barrel.
Apr natural gas has been in negative territory all morning, dipping to a session low of $4.29 per MMBtu. It is currently trading at $4.32 per MMBtu, or 1.2% lower.

9:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The Dow (+0.5%) and S&P 500 (+0.5%) remain near their opening highs with the Nasdaq (+0.1%) trailing the S&P 500.

The relative weakness of the tech sector (+0.2%) is playing a part in the underperformance of the Nasdaq and so is weakness in biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 254.76, -3.49) holds a loss of 1.4%.

Outside of technology, the discretionary sector (+0.4%) is also among the early laggards as Nike (NKE 76.41, -2.87) weighs after issuing cautious guidance to go along with its better-than-expected earnings. Elsewhere in the sector, Tiffany (TIF 92.47, +1.30) trades up 1.5% despite missing earnings estimates and issuing below-consensus guidance.

While the discretionary sector displays early weakness relative to the broader market, the consumer staples space (+0.7%) outperforms.

9:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages jumped out of the gate with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.6%) in the lead. The S&P 500, meanwhile, trades higher by 0.5% after climbing above its intraday record high of 1883.57 that was established on March 7.

The benchmark index saw all ten sectors take part in the opening rally with energy (+0.8%), financials (+0.6%), and health care (+0.6%) contributing to the opening surge. The top-weighted sector-technology (+0.3%)-began the day among the laggards. Chipmakers displayed relative strength yesterday, but the displayed relative weakness at the open with the PHLX Semiconductor Index trading flat.

On the fixed-income side, the 10-yr note is flat with its yield at 2.77%.

9:10 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.50. The stock market is expected to begin the trading day on a higher note as futures on the S&P 500 trade five points above fair value. The final session of the week will start with the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 looking to maintain their week-to-date gains of 1.7% apiece.

Overnight action was very subdued with most Asian indices posting gains while Japan's Nikkei was closed for Spring Equinox Day. European indices, meanwhile, hold modest gains across the board.

Treasuries are little changed with the benchmark 10-yr yield pegged at 2.78%.

There is no economic data today but quadruple witching (index futures, index options, stock options, and stock futures expiration) and index rebalancing will take place.

8:57 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.20. The S&P 500 futures trade five points above fair value.

Markets across Asia finished mostly higher, piggybacking yesterday's advance on Wall Street. Australia's CB Leading Index ticked up 0.2% month-over-month and Hong Kong's current account surplus narrowed to HKD18.95 billion from HKD31.80 billion.

Japan's Nikkei was closed for Spring Equinox Day.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng rallied 1.2% off eight-month lows. Exporter Li & Fung jumped 21% on news the company plans to spin off its branding and licenses business.
China's Shanghai Composite jumped 2.7%, posting its biggest gain in four months. Traders moved into the heavily beaten down financials as Shanghai Pudong Bank surged the limit, 10%, and Industrial Bank climbed 6.6%.

Major European indices hold modest gains with Germany's DAX (+0.5%) in the lead. Economic data was limited. Eurozone current account surplus expanded to EUR25.30 billion from EUR20.00 billion (expected EUR18.40 billion); Great Britain's Public Sector Net Borrowing increased GBP7.50 billion (consensus GBP8.60 billion, prior -GBP6.40 billion); and Italian Industrial New Orders rose 4.8% month-over-month (expected 2.1%, prior -4.8%) while Industrial Sales increased 1.2% month-over-month (previous -0.2%).

Among news of note, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said Ukraine should repay $16 billion to Russia following the denunciation of an agreement reached in 2010, per which Ukraine received a discount on gas prices in exchange for a naval base in Sevastopol.

Great Britain's FTSE trades higher by 0.3% with miners showing strength. Anglo American, Fresnillo, Glencore Xstrata, and Rio Tinto hold gains between 0.8% and 2.2%. Burberry is among the laggards, down 2.4%.
In France, the CAC trades up 0.3% with software company Gemalto in the lead (+2.3%). On the downside, financials Credit Agricole and Societe Generale trade lower by 2.5% and 0.8%, respectively.
Germany's DAX is higher by 0.5%. Commerzbank leads with a 3.2% gain while Deutsche Bank holds a loss of 0.4%.

8:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +16.50. Equity indices are on track to register modest gains at the open as the S&P 500 futures hover five points above fair value.

The overnight session was very quiet with Japan's Nikkei closed for Spring Equinox Day. Elsewhere, markets in China posted gains while the key European indices trade in the green as the halfway point of the session nears.

Commodities have strengthened overnight with copper futures ($2.97/lb, +0.42) seeing a 1.4% gain. Precious metals are higher across the board with gold up 0.6% at $1338.70/ozt. Also of note, palladium trades up 3.0% at 794.65/ozt after President Obama announced a bill allowing the use of economic sanctions against Russia, which is the largest producer of Palladium. For its part, crude oil is higher by 0.4% at $99.29/bbl.

8:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +16.00. U.S. equity futures hover near their pre-market highs amid upbeat action overseas. The S&P 500 futures trade nearly six points above fair value.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended higher. Hong Kong's Hang Seng +1.2%, China's Shanghai Composite +2.7%, and Japan's Nikkei was closed was Spring Equinox Day.
Economic data was scarce:
Australia's CB Leading Index ticked up 0.2% month-over-month (last 0.8%).
New Zealand's Visitor Arrivals increased 2.2% month-over-month (prior 2.8%) and Credit Card Spending jumped 5.9% year-over-year (previous 9.4%).
In news:
In China, two major banks reportedly halted sales of high-yield trust products as the liquidity crunch continues.

Major European indices hold modest gains. Great Britain's FTSE +0.3%, France's CAC +0.3%, and Germany's DAX +0.5%. Elsewhere, Spain's IBEX +0.1% and Italy's MIB is unchanged.
Economic data was limited:
Eurozone current account surplus expanded to EUR25.30 billion from EUR20.00 billion (expected EUR18.40 billion).
Great Britain's Public Sector Net Borrowing increased GBP7.50 billion (consensus GBP8.60 billion, prior -GBP6.40 billion).
Italian Industrial New Orders rose 4.8% month-over-month (expected 2.1%, prior -4.8%) while Industrial Sales increased 1.2% month-over-month (previous -0.2%).
Among news of note:
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said Ukraine should repay $16 billion to Russia following the denunciation of a 2010 agreement, per which Ukraine received a discount on gas prices in exchange for a naval base in Sevastopol.

In U.S. corporate news:

Boeing (BA 121.90, -1.83): -1.4% after being downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy.'
Nike (NKE 76.95, -2.32): -2.9% after the company's soft guidance overshadowed its above-consensus earnings and revenue.
Symantec (SYMC 18.80, -2.11): -10.1% after the company unexpectedly terminated Chief Executive Officer Steve Bennett, naming Michael Brown interim president and CEO.
TIBCO Software (TIBX 21.51, -0.08): -0.4% despite reporting better-than-expected earnings on in-line revenue.
Tiffany (TIF 88.75, -2.42): -2.7% after missing earnings estimates and issuing below-consensus guidance.

There is no economic data on today's schedule but quadruple witching (index futures, index options, stock options, and stock futures expiration) and index rebalancing will take place.

7:15 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.50.

7:15 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...Holiday......... Hang Seng...21436.70...+254.50...+1.20%.

7:15 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6565.57...+23.10...+0.40%. DAX...9338.01...+41.90...+0.50%.

Brent, WTI Rise After Russia’s Annexation of Crimea

By Mark Shenk Mar 21, 2014 3:16 PM ET

West Texas Intermediate and Brent crudes climbed after Russia completed annexing Crimea, escalating the worst standoff with the West since the Cold War.

WTI rose 0.6 percent and Brent 0.4 percent. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed legislation needed to absorb the Black Sea peninsula and its port of Sevastopol from Ukraine. Futures retreated from the day’s highs after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped from a record.

“Crude is up on concern that Putin may decide over the weekend that areas of eastern Ukraine might also prefer to be part of Russia,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis, which oversees $1.4 billion.

WTI for May delivery advanced 56 cents to settle at $99.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The April contract expired yesterday after dropping 0.9 percent to $99.43. The volume of all futures traded was 16 percent below the 100-day average at 2:30 p.m.

Brent for May settlement rose 47 cents to end the session at $106.92 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Trading was 15 percent below the 100-day average.

Brent, the benchmark for more than half the world’s oil, closed at a $7.46 premium to WTI.
Russia Sanctions

The U.S. announced additional sanctions yesterday targeting aides and associates of Putin, including billionaire Gennady Timchenko, co-founder of energy-trading company Gunvor Group Ltd. The broader sanctions marked an escalation of efforts to punish Putin and his associates for Russia’s move into Crimea. Russia is the world’s biggest energy producer.

The U.S. Treasury Department alleged that Putin has a direct financial interest in Gunvor. The company said that Putin has never had any ownership and Timchenko had already sold his entire stake to his partner, Torbjorn Tornqvist.

“Putin’s actions are getting more provocative,” said Dan Flynn, an energy market analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “We may be swimming in supply, but I wouldn’t want to be short going into the weekend with all of the tension between Russia and Ukraine. Too much could go wrong.”

The S&P 500 climbed as much as 0.6 percent to 1,883.97 before retreating. Emerging-market equities increased on speculation that China, the world’s biggest oil-consuming country after the U.S., is loosening funding restrictions for property developers and banks.
Economic Data

U.S. unemployment claims last week were 320,000 after the previous week’s 315,000, the lowest back-to-back readings since late November, Labor Department data showed yesterday. Other data showed factories in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia region grew at a faster pace and the index of leading indicators gained.

“The market is very volatile right now because of the Russian news,” said Rob Haworth, a senior investment strategist in Seattle at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which oversees about $115 billion of assets. “Better economic growth in the U.S. and Europe should tighten supply and send oil higher next quarter.”

U.S. crude stockpiles climbed 5.85 million barrels to 375.9 million last week, the most since November, Energy Information Administration data showed. Production rose to 8.215 million barrels a day, the highest rate since 1988.

“We might be up for the day but I believe the market will soon drop because of the fundamentals,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “Crude inventories continue to climb as we see big gains in U.S. production.”

Electronic trading volume on the Nymex was 357,126 contracts at 2:48 p.m. It totaled 529,376 contracts yesterday, 1.8 percent above the three-month average. Open interest was 1.61 million contracts, a six-week low.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net Richard Stubbe

Gold Futures Rise to Snap Longest Slump in Four Months

By Debarati Roy Mar 21, 2014 2:11 PM ET

Gold futures rose, snapping the longest slump in four months, as the dispute between Russia and the West over Ukraine escalated, increasing demand for a haven.

Russia completed its annexation of Crimea as the European Union signed a political accord with Ukraine, and President Barack Obama yesterday expanded U.S. financial sanctions against Russian officials and businessmen. Gold dropped in the previous four days, partly on Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s forecast for rising U.S. interest rates.

“There is some safe-haven buying,” Phil Streible, a senior commodity broker at R.J. O’Brien & Associates in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Today’s move may be temporary as the sentiment has turned negative because of the rate-hike surprise.”

Gold futures for June delivery rose 0.4 percent to settle at $1,336 an ounce at 1:51 p.m. on the Comex in New York. The price has climbed 11 percent this year.

This week, the metal dropped 3.1 percent, the most in three months. Yellen said on March 19 that U.S. rates may rise around six months after asset purchases end, expected later this year.

On March 17, gold reached a six-month high of $1,392.60 amid faltering U.S. economic growth and escalating tensions in Ukraine.
Goldman Outlook

The rally was based on “transient” factors including a slowdown in the U.S. economy because of cold weather, China credit concerns and geopolitical tensions, Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s head of commodities research, said in a report.

“While further escalation in tensions could support prices, we expect acceleration in U.S. growth will bring gold prices lower,” he said.

In 2013, gold tumbled 28 percent, the most since 1981, as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value amid a U.S. equity rally to a record and muted inflation.

The Fed this week reduced monthly asset purchases by $10 billion to $55 billion and said bond buying will be tapered in measured steps.

Gold surged 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed pumped more than $2 trillion into the financial system and cut interest rates to boost the economy.

Silver futures for May delivery fell 0.6 percent to $20.31 an ounce. This week, the price dropped 5.2 percent, the most since mid-September. The metal, which has broader industrial applications than gold, declined for the fifth straight session, the longest slump in four months.

Yesterday, a gauge of six industrial metals including copper and aluminum fell to the lowest in almost nine months.

To contact the reporter on this story: Debarati Roy in New York at droy5@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Millie Munshi at mmunshi@bloomberg.net Patrick McKiernan, Steve Stroth

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader @ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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