TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +9.20 points or $920 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=104&t=1230.

To join our free chat room...log-in instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=152&t=1459

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.


Stocks Snap Three Week Losing Streak


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks fell Friday, but ended higher for the week, as concerns about the debt crisis in Europe weighed on the market ahead of a long weekend.

Investors on both sides of the Atlantic are worried about Spanish banks and the failure of European leaders to come up with any good solutions, especially concerning Greece and its possibility of leaving the eurozone. According to CNNMoney's Fear & Greed Index, investor sentiment has been at an "extreme fear" level for the past two weeks.

But the negative tone was tempered by an index of U.S. consumer sentiment, which rose in May to its highest level in more than four years.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 75 points, or 0.6%, to end at 12,455. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost 3 points, or 0.2%, to 1,318. The Nasdaq (COMP) fell 2 points, or 0.1%, to 2,837.

Despite the weakness on Friday, all three indexes posted gains for the week, snapping a three-week losing streak. The Dow gained 0.7%, the S&P 500 rose 1.7% and the Nasdaq added 2.1%.

Signs that the Spanish banking crisis is worsening weighed on investors. Bankia, one of the largest banks in Spain, officially requested €19 billion in state aid, giving the government a majority stake. Investors were also rattled by a report that certain Spanish municipalities are struggling to raise money.

The euro remained under pressure at about $1.25. The currency is down 5% in the past month and analysts say it has further to fall.

Meanwhile, trading volumes were low ahead of a three-day weekend for U.S. markets, with many investors taking the day off or leaving early Friday.

* Video - Why China can't let Europe slip

Concerns about the European debt crisis and whether a Greek exit from the euro would spark a financial meltdown, as well as a global recession, have weighed on U.S. markets in recent weeks.

U.S. stocks finished mixed Thursday, as investors mulled lackluster economic data in the U.S. amid the ongoing concerns about Europe.

* Fear & Greed Index

Given the market's recent slide, many investors may soon be looking for buying opportunities. Tyler Vernon, chief investment officer at Biltmore Capital, noted Thursday that the S&P 500 is trading at an attractive valuation -- below 13 times earnings estimates.

Economy: The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for the month of May rose to 79.3 from 76.4 in April. The index was expected to come in at 77.5, according to a survey of analysts by Briefing.com. It was the highest level since October 2007.

Companies: Facebook (FB) shares fell after gaining 3% on Thursday, as the company continues to deal with the fallout from its bungled IPO last week. The offering has prompted concern from regulators and lawsuits from investors who say they were denied access to privileged information ahead of the stock's debut.

World markets: European stocks ended modestly higher. The DAX (DAX) in Germany and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) both rose 0.4%, while Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) was little changed.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) lost 0.7%, but the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong added 0.3% while Japan's Nikkei (N225) gained 0.2%

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound.

Oil for July delivery rose 39 cents to $91.04 a barrel.

Gold futures for June delivery rose $7.80 to $1,565.30 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 1.75% from 1.76% late Thursday.



Market Update

4:30 pm : Action this week started on a strong note. Stocks then managed to muster gains that ranged from only incremental to modest during the course of the next few sessions. Still, it was enough to give the S&P 500 a weekly gain of 1.7%, which snapped a streak of three straight weekly slides.

Perhaps most impressive about the stock market’s weekly advance is that it came in the face of continued concerns about persistently precarious conditions in the eurozone.

Most of this week’s gain was earned on Monday, when a blend of bargain hunting and short covering drove the S&P 500 to its strongest performance in two months to snap a six-session losing streak. However, stocks had a hard time building on that bounce with the euro communicating serious concerns about the eurozone by dropping to a near two-year low of about $1.25.

The euro acted as a trading catalyst for most of the week. Its gyrations came amid concerns about the possibility and implications of a eurozone breakup. Those concerns were aroused by a former Greece prime minister, who indicated that the country may be considering an exit from the euro. Subsequent calls by eurozone officials for contingency plans and the need for the creation of eurozone bonds were aimed at addressing the issue. There was also some chatter about coordinated central bank actions regarding swap line fees.

As was the case at the start of the week, stocks were helped later on by some short covering, which helped the broad market reverse out of the red as many market participants were prompted to exit their positions so as to take profits or protect against additional upside action once stocks had stabilized.

In the final session of the week trade was mostly subdued, or at least until the final hour. For the first several hours the broad market was restricted to a low-volume chop with so few traders at their desks ahead of the long Memorial Day weekend. A lack of headlines also made the market less appealing to play. However, a modest slip by the euro seemed to evoke a final flurry of selling. While both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 managed to limit losses, the Dow fell a little harder due to the weighting of a few Industrial and Financial constituents.

CORPORATE NEWS
Home improvement retailer Lowe's (LOW 27.24, +0.14) reported stronger-than-expected earnings, but issued disappointing guidance this week. Fellow retailers Best Buy (BBY 19.17, +0.35), Urban Outfitters (URBN 28.42, +0.39), and Polo Ralph Lauren (RL 149.84, +1.16) were also in play. Polo Ralph Lauren complemented its quarterly report with news of plans to double its dividend to $0.40 per share.

Dell (DELL 12.46, +0.01) endured its worst one-day drop in more than a decade to set a new 52-week low in response to a disappointing quarterly report. Fellow Tech outfit Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 22.33, +0.56) was greeted with a positive response following its latest earnings announcement, resulting in the stock’s best single-session percentage gain in more than a month. Meanwhile, Yahoo! (YHOO 15.36, +0.01) made headlines with its decision to sell half of its stake in Alibaba.

Diversified financial services giant JPMorgan Chase (JPM 33.50, -0.47) opted to suspend its share repurchase program, but stated that it intends to maintain its dividend.

ECONOMICS
Only a dearth of domestic data was released this week.

Durable goods orders increased by 0.2% during April, but orders less transportation items declined by 0.6%. It had been generally expected that overall orders would increase by 0.3%, while orders less transportation would increase by 1.0%. Prior month data was revised to reflect a 3.7% decline in overall orders and a 0.8% decline in orders less transportation items.

The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 370,000, which is on par with the 365,000 initial claims that had been widely forecasted, and consistent with the 372,000 initial claims filed in the prior week.

During April existing home sales hit an annualized rate of 4.62 million while new home sales hit an annualized rate of 343,000. Respective rates of 4.65 million and 339,000 had been broadly expected.

The revised monthly Consumer Sentiment Survey from the University of Michigan made a surprise improvement to 79.3, which stands as a four-year high.
Global data of note featured disappointing PMI manufacturing and services numbers from the eurozone. Numbers from France also disappointed, but readings from Germany were more mixed.

Amid the persistently precarious conditions in Europe, the OECD now expects a mild economic contraction in the euro area.

Leaders of China conveyed a willingness to consider accommodative policies with regard to stimulating economic growth. Later in the week it was announced that the World Bank trimmed its growth forecast for China to a rate slightly greater than 8%.

The Japanese yen was also hit with selling pressure. Its weakness followed a decision by analysts at Fitch to downgrade Japan's long-term debt rating to A+ from AA.

TREASURIES
Late last week the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note set a new historical low fractionally under 1.70%, but improved sentiment in the stock market prompted some participants to rotate out of the safe haven, resulting in a modest rise in yields.

A series of auctions this week featured offerings for Notes with 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year terms.

The auction of 2-year Notes drew a bid-to-cover of 3.95, dollar demand of $138.3 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 33.3%. For comparison, the prior auction drew a bid-to-cover of 3.76, dollar demand of $131.6 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 32.1%, while an average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 3.71, dollar demand of $129.9 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 33.1%.

Results from an auction of 5-year Notes drew a bid-to-cover of 2.99, dollar demand of $104.7 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 42.6%. For comparison, the prior offering produced a bid-to-cover of 3.09, dollar demand of $108.2 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 47.5%, while an average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 3.00, dollar demand of $105.1 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 45.1%.

The auction of 7-year Notes drew a bid-to-cover of 2.80, dollar demand of $81.2 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 42.7%. For comparison, the prior auction attracted a bid-to-cover of 2.83, dollar demand of $82.1 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 38.2%, while an average of the last six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 2.88, dollar demand of $83.5 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 39.4%.DJ30 -74.92 NASDAQ -1.85 NQ100 -0.2% R2K +0.00% SP400 -0.2% SP500 -2.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1237/1.27 bln/1233 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1545/593 mln/1437

3:30 pm : Action in the commodity complex left the CRB Index to settle at the flat line. For the week, though, it fell almost 3%, which marks its worst weekly performance of 2012.

Crude oil in the July contract closed pit trade $0.24 higher at $90.87 per barrel after it had been as high as $91.22 per barrel. Prices were helped by stalled negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program. Talks are reported to resume in June. Despite the recent advance, crude still finished the week 1.0% lower.

Natural gas extended yesterday's loss as it fell to a session low of $2.58 per MMBtu before ticking up and settling at $2.62 per MMBtu for a weekly loss of 7.1%.

Precious metals advanced as the dollar stayed relatively flat. Gold touched a session high of $1569.90 per ounce and silver traded as high as $28.48 per ounce before pulling back. A rally heading into the close pushed the metals up so that gold settled the week 1.5% lower at $1568.80 per ounce, while silver finished with a weekly loss of 1.0% at $28.42 per ounce. DJ30 -94.71 NASDAQ -6.70 SP500 -4.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1205/960 mln/1245 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1440/370 mln/1505

3:00 pm : Both the S&P 500 and Dow have slipped to new session lows, but the Nasdaq has yet to confirm the move. Instead, the Nasdaq remains narrowly above the depths that it set in the early going.

While neither the Nasdaq nor the S&P 500 is down very much, the Dow's loss has become rather sizable. Its relative weakness stems from pronounced declines among shares of Boeing (BA 70.03, -1.36), Chevron (CVX 98.66, -1.40), Caterpillar (CAT 90.11, -1.31), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 33.48, -0.49). DJ30 -71.59 NASDAQ -3.16 SP500 -2.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1200/885 mln/1235 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1430/340 mln/1485

2:30 pm : Stocks recently suffered a sudden slip that took the Dow and S&P 500 out of their trading ranges to new session lows. Importantly, though, losses that stemmed from the move were only modest. There is no catalyst or headline to account for the slip.DJ30 -61.00 NASDAQ -0.86 SP500 -1.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1320/815 mln/1105 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1560/310 mln/1350

2:00 pm : Stocks continue to crawl along in mixed fashion. The dollar is also having a quiet day, too; it is currently flat against a basket of major currencies.DJ30 -45.07 NASDAQ +3.42 SP500 -0.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1365/745 mln/1055 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1605/290 mln/1295

1:30 pm : Tech stocks have moved back to the flat time for the first time in a few hours. That has helped give a modest lift to the Nasdaq. The effort comes as shares of Apple (AAPL 562.63, -2.69) trim their losses to trade at their best level since the early going. Shares of APPL boast the biggest market cap of any stock -- currently greater than a half trillion dollars, it is greater than the combined market cap of Microsoft (MSFT 29.16, +0.09) and IBM (IBM 194.75, -1.34).DJ30 -34.89 NASDAQ +3.28 SP500 +0.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1260/700 mln/1140 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1475/270 mln/1410

1:00 pm : Action has been choppy and listless since the open, leaving the broad market mired near the neutral line.

With the S&P 500 oscillating along the flat line it is still unclear if the broad market measure will be able to book its fifth straight gain, including incrementally positive finishes earlier this week. The stock market hasn't scored five straight gains since March. Currently up a little less than 2% for the week, stocks are trying to snap a three-week slide and book their best weekly performance since then.

News flow has been generally slow, but market participants did receive this morning some positive consumer confidence data from Europe and a surprisingly strong reading on domestic consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan -- the reading improved to a four-year high of 79.3.

Still, participation has been limited ahead of Memorial Day weekend. The apathy has made for anemic share volume. DJ30 -44.88 NASDAQ -1.51 SP500 -0.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1255/635 mln/1120 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1515/245 mln/1365

12:30 pm : The S&P 500 has slipped back into negative territory for a fractional loss, but remains above its session low. Tech stocks, down 0.2%, have been a bit of a drag.

Outside of equities, the dollar is up just 0.1% against a basket of major foreign currencies, namely the euro.

Mixed to moderately weak price action among commodities has the CRB Index down 0.2%. DJ30 -39.62 NASDAQ -2.36 SP500 -0.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1395/570 mln/1065 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1560/225 mln/1285

12:00 pm : The stock market remains mired near the neutral line, making for an unexciting session of trade. The lack of action is largely owed to an absence of trade-worthy headlines and an exit from the market by traders looking for an early start to the long, holiday weekend -- US markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day. With trading desks so thinly staffed share volume has been paltry.DJ30 -20.13 NASDAQ -0.01 SP500 +1.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1220/505 mln/1125 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1465/200 mln/1385

11:30 am : The S&P 500 has pushed up from the flat line to trade near the top of its morning range. Still, its gain remains only modest.

That said, the stock market has made only modest and incremental gains in each of the three previous sessions, following a big move on Monday. With stocks positioned above the flat line for a fifth straight session, the S&P 500 is poised to snap three straight weeks of losses. What's more, the S&P 500 hasn't had such a strong weekly performance since the middle of March. That was also about the last time that stocks strung together five straight gains, including incrementally positive finishes. DJ30 -21.35 NASDAQ -1.80 SP500 +2.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1200/430 mln/1100 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1465/170 mln/1350

11:00 am : The broad market remains rangebound near the neutral line, but the Telecom sector has worked its way up to a 0.6% gain. However, the sector's lack of market weight has limited its ability to offer legitmate leadership.

While integrated telecom plays like AT&T (T 33.79, +0.15) and Verizon (VZ 41.55, +0.16) are in solid shape, Sprint Nextel (S 2.62, +0.10) has run ahead to sport a gain of about 4%. The effort has shares of S at a one-month high. DJ30 -20.36 NASDAQ -3.76 SP500 +0.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1050/335 mln/1210 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1300/135 mln/1475

10:30 am : The stock market continues its struggle to push off of the flat line. Its largest, most influential sectors are all stuck in a tight trading range of their own -- Financials are flat, while Energy and Tech both trade with a 0.2% loss.DJ30 -32.09 NASDAQ -6.52 SP500 -0.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1060/205 mln/1100 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1410/90 mln/1280

10:00 am : Action among the major equity averages remains mixed, even in the wake of a surprisingly strong reading on consumer sentiment. The final May reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan improved to 79.3 -- its highest level in more than four years -- from the preliminary reading of 77.8. Economists polled by Briefing.com had expected, on average, that the reading would slip incrementally lower to 77.5.DJ30 -20.54 NASDAQ -0.41 SP500 +1.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1095/100 mln/990 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1400/55 mln/1190

09:45 am : Broad market action is mixed in the early going. The lack of direction is due to an absence of leadership. Without much news flow and a long, holiday weekend awaiting, trade could easily remain listless and lackluster.DJ30 -33.52 NASDAQ -0.34 SP500 -0.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.30. Stock futures have pulled back in response to weakened action in Europe, where the region's major bourses are now down with marked losses after sporting solid gains earlier in their session. The euro has also turned lower, giving up a modest gain against the greenback to trade with a 0.1% loss at about $1.251. News flow remains slow ahead of the long, holiday weekend. Coming up at 9:55 AM ET, though, is the final monthly reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Generally mixed action among commodities has the CRB Index stuck at the flat line. It is on pace for a 2.9% weekly loss, though. That makes for its poorest weekly performance of 2012. Crude oil prices are currently down 0.1% to $90.60 per barrel in early pit trade. Natural gas prices are currently down 0.9% to $2.69 per MMBtu. Action among precious metals has lifted gold prices up 0.5% to $1565 per ounce, while silver sits at $28.20 per ounce with a 0.1% gain.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.80. Action in Europe has weakened since solid gains earlier in the session. Many eurozone leaders continue to call for the creation of a euro bond to help provide funds for battling precarious conditions in the region, but reports indicate Germany remains against the idea since it is believed that the country would ultimately foot the bill. Germany's DAX is down 0.4%. Siemens AG (SI 84.34, +0.00), Deutsche Post, and RWE AG are providing support, but weakness among Deutsche Telekom, Infineon Tech, and ThyssenKrupp is winning out. The country's latest GfK Consumer Confidence Survey came in at 5.7, which is unchanged from the prior month. France's CAC is currently down 0.6%. Carrefour is one of the few stocks sporting a gain. Capgemini, Accor, and STMicroelectronics are under some of the most intense selling pressure. Britian's FTSE has fallen to a 0.6% loss amid weakness in banking issues like Lloyds Group (LYG 1.68, +0.00), Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS 6.74, +0.00), and Barclays (BCS 11.66, +0.00). Admiral Group and Marks & Spencer Group have put together impressive gains in the face of broad market weakness.

Overnight action in Asia led Japan's Nikkei to a 0.2% gain. Aozora Bank, Tokyu Land, Takeda Pharmaceutical, and Canon (CAJ 39.74, +0.00) were leaders. Dowa Holdings, Sumco Corp., and Sony (SNE 13.43, -0.33) were at the opposite end of the spectrum. Data from Japan featured a 0.2% year-over-year increase in core consumer prices for April. Hong Kong's Hang Seng scored a 0.3% gain. Bank of China and China Construction Bank provided leadership, but their efforts were partly undermined by weakness in Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, China CITIC Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite closed with a 0.7% loss. China Minsheng Bank was a heavy drag. Haitong Securities was also weak. Anhui Liuguo Chemical and China Railway displayed strength. China's latest MNI Business Conditions Survey slipped to 54.4 from 56.0 in the prior month.

Note: ticker quotes reflect US premarket prices.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.80. Stock futures are narrowly above the flat line, mirroring relatively mixed overnight action in Asia and lacluster trade in Europe. The euro is up modestly, though; it currently leads the greenback by about 0.2%. Although Greece remains a focal point, there is less of a frenzy surrounding the speculation that it may exit the eurozone. Also, data from the region featured a couple of pleasing consumer confidence readings. Market participants get the final monthly reading on domestic consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan at 9:55 AM ET. It is the only item on the US economic calendar today. Only a handful of earnings reports have been released since the prior session. There isn't a market mover among them, though.

06:17 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +7.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +16.00.

06:17 am : Nikkei...8580.39...+17.00...+0.20%. Hang Seng...18713.41...+47.00...+0.30%.

06:17 am : FTSE...5344.79...-5.30...-0.10%. DAX...6367.04...+51.20...+0.80%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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