TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)


click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +38.10 points or $3810.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=96&t=1046.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=145&t=1269

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Rally on ECB Cut as Greece Moves Toward Bailout

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks advanced, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index higher for a second straight day, as Greece moved closer to accepting a bailout and the European Central Bank unexpectedly lowered interest rates.

Stocks Post A Second Day Of Gains


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Maureen Farrell November 3, 2011: 4:32 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks closed significantly higher Thursday, giving the market its second day of gains. Investors focused on the European Central Bank's surprise rate cut and mostly shrugged off fears over Greece.

The Dow Jones industrial average (DJIA) moved up 208 points, or 1.8%. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained 23 points, or 1.9%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) added 58 points, or 2.2%.

Stock rallied from the start of trading following the rate cut, the ECB's first in two years. Political wrangling in Greece didn't deter investors. It remains unclear whether or not Greece will put its bailout to a public vote.

The ECB's rate cut gave investors some hope that incoming ECB President Mario Draghi might be more willing to intervene to buy bonds or take other steps to help the market. Still, Draghi steered clear of comment on that issue during his first press conference Thursday morning.

Draghi managed to also briefly rattle the markets when he said that Europe appeared poised to head into a mild recession. Stocks, however, quickly rebounded.

In late afternoon, the leader of the main Greek opposition party called for Prime Minister George Papandreou to step down and for snap elections to be held within six weeks. The move by Antonis Samaras undermines the idea that there is a consensus on the austerity measures attached to a European bailout package.

Worries about Greece had been tempered earlier in the day after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou backed off plans to hold a referendum on the nation's bailout, following an emergency cabinet meeting.

Papandreou said the referendum would not be necessary if the opposition supported austerity measures.

Meanwhile, shares of investment banking firm Jefferies (JEF) were temporarily halted after the stock dropped roughly 20% on fears about the company's European sovereign debt exposure.

Investors have been closely watching Jefferies for any signs of trouble since the Chapter 11 filing of MF Global (MFGLQ). Jefferies' stock retraced some of its losses after the firm outlined its net exposure to the debt of Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain.

* Video - Nix the VIX, look to gold instead

U.S. stocks finished sharply higher on Wednesday, snapping back from two days of steep declines.

Economy: The Labor Department said weekly jobless claims eased by 9,000 to 397,000 last week, which was slightly better than execrated.

Productivity of U.S. workers rose 3.1% during the third quarter, after falling 0.7% the prior quarter. Labor costs fell by 2.4%. Both readings were better than expected.

The government's monthly report on factory orders beat expectations. Analysts surveyed by Briefing.com expected factory orders to have dropped 0.2% in September, but instead they rose 0.3%.

Companies: Investors fled many retail stocks after many October same-store sales reports came in lower than expected. Abercrombie's (ANF)stock closed down roughly 20%.

Shares of Qualcomm (QCOM, Fortune 500) climbed after the chipmaker issued a better-than-expected sales forecast for fiscal 2012, citing growing demand for smartphones.

Alpha Natural Resource's (ANR) stock rose after the coal producer topped earnings and sales estimates, and boosted its coal shipment guidance for the year.

Shares of Estee Lauder (EL, Fortune 500) also edged up on a positive earnings report.

DirecTV (DTV, Fortune 500) shares closed higher after the satellite TV provider drew in a record number of subscribers during the quarter, driving sales up 14% to surpass estimates.

Shares of Limited Brands (LTD, Fortune 500) slipped after the retailer's October same-store sales rose at a slower pace than analysts were expecting.

Groupon is slated to price its IPO late Thursday and begin trading on Friday morning, according to several news reports. It will trade on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol GRPN.

* Ultimatum for Greece

World markets: Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) closed up 1.1%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany spiked 2.8% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) gained 2.7%. The euro also gained traction, rising 0.4% versus the dollar.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) edged up 0.2%, while the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong sank 2.5% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) dropped 2.2%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar was lower against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for December delivery rose $1.56 to $94.07 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery rose $35.50 to $1,765.10 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell slightly, pushing the yield up to 2.07% from 2.01 late Wednesday.



Market Update

4:30 pm : Buyers fought off early selling efforts to help the market stage a steady climb that gave stocks their second straight session of strong gains. That has S&P 500 back in positive territory for the year.

The major averages started the session with gains on the order of 1%. Positive sentiment was underpinned by reports that Greece may abandon its eurozone bailout plan referendum in response to pressure from other countries as well as news that the European Central Bank became more accommodative by trimming its key lending rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%.

However, stocks failed to sustain early gains as the S&P 500 failed to display strength in the face of resistance near the 1250 line. All gains were given up before stocks began to bounce back. The S&P 500 continued to encounter resistance around the 1250 line before it ultimately pushed through. Momentum from the move took it back into positive territory for the year.

There wasn't a single sector that settled with a gain of less than 1%, but energy issues outperformed all session. They advanced 2.5% amid leadership from Alpha Natural Resources (ANR 27.11, +3.18), which rallied in response to an upside earnings surprise and an analyst upgrade.

Among the more widely held names that reported, Qualcomm (QCOM 56.11, +3.93) and CVS Caremark (CVS 37.31, +1.54) both exceeded earnings expectations, as did Dow component Kraft (KFT 35.78, +1.14).

Shares of retailers were slow to join the broad market's rally following a relatively mixed round of monthly same-store sales results. As a group, retailers only staged modest gains, as measured by the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 53.25, +0.26).

Data was given little attention today. Among the featured pieces, the ISM Services Index for October came in at 52.9, which is less than the 53.9 that had been broadly expected. Meanwhile, factory orders for September increased by 0.3%, which is a positive surprise since many had expected a 0.2% decline. Initial jobless claims for the week ended October 29 totaled 397,000, which is essentially in step with the Briefing.com consensus call for 401,000 initial claims.

Advancing Sectors: Energy +2.5%, Industrials +2.5%, Tech +2.4%, Materials +2.1%, Financials +1.9%, Telecom +1.6%, Consumer Discretionary +1.3%, Consumer Staples +1.2%, Health Care +1.2%, Utilities +1.2%
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +208.43 NASDAQ +57.99 NQ100 +2.1% R2K +2.5% SP400 +2.4% SP500 +23.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1889/2.10 bln/652 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2354/1.05 bln/661

3:30 pm : Eyes were once again on the unfolding events in Greece. Markets also had to account for the ECB rate decision, released earlier this morning, which saw the bank cut interest rates by 25 bps. The uncertainty about what would happen in Greece caused precious metals to rally today. Gold futures posted gains of 1.9% top close at $1765.10 per ounce, while silver ended higher by 1.6% at $34.49 per ounce.

Natural gas, which settled higher by 0.9% at $3.78 per MMBtu, rallied on the back of this morning’s inventory data, which saw a slightly larger than expected build in inventories. Futures pulled back from session highs heading into afternoon trade to close at levels seen in overnight trade. Crude oil finished higher by 1.7% at $94.07 per barrel. Crude rallied on the ECB rate cut, as well as the strength in equities. DJ30 +207.7 NASDAQ +55.67 SP500 +20.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1202/1.7 bln/907 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1747/729.9 mln/986

3:00 pm : Stocks are just shy of session highs as they enter the final hour of the session. With today's advance stocks are up about 3% in just two days. Still, that's not enough to recoup the 5% that was given up in the first two days of trade this week. Unless stocks extend their recent rally into tomorrow, the stock market is at risk of suffering its first weekly loss in five weeks.DJ30 +179.82 NASDAQ +47.37 SP500 +18.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1815/1.48 bln/690 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2295/630 mln/680

2:30 pm : Treasuries have been under steady pressure all session. Their weakness comes as a consequence of the stock market's strength since so many investors are feeling less risk averse amid reports that Greece may be pressured to give up on its pursuit of a referendum for the eurozone bailout plan. Amid the drama unfolding in Greece, reports have suggested that the country's prime minister has been asked to step down.DJ30 +180.23 NASDAQ +46.96 SP500 +18.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1805/1.40 bln/680 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2335/590 mln/645

2:00 pm : The S&P 500 is now flat for the year, but it has been slow to extend its move so that it turns year-to-date positive. Meanwhile, the dollar has turned down to a session low so that it trails a collection of competing currencies by 0.6%. For the year, the dollar is down 3.0%.DJ30 +177.52 NASDAQ +44.41 SP500 +18.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1720/1.23 bln/740 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2240/515 mln/700

1:30 pm : Stocks are starting to ease off of session highs, which came as the S&P 500 moved to within only a couple of points of its flat for the year line.

Meanwhile, the dollar has drifted deeper into negative territory. It had been up solidly this morning, but now trades with a 0.5% loss against a basket of major foreign currencies. DJ30 +158.86 NASDAQ +42.10 SP500 +16.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1670/1.13 bln/775 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2195/475 mln/750

1:00 pm : The S&P 500 has overcome resistance at the 1250 line to trade to a new session high. The broad-based buying effort comes amid continued drama in Greece.

Stocks were bid higher in the opening minutes of trade as market participants responded to reports that eurozone officials are putting pressure on Greece to acquiesce to eurozone bailout plans by abandoning in its proposed referendum, which would presumably undermine an efficient implementation of the bailout. Market participants were also encuraged by the European Central Bank's decision to become more accomodative by trimming its primary lending rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%.

Despite the strong start, the major averages faltered only a few minutes after the open. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq descended into negative territory, but buyers stepped back in with support. The subsequent rebound slowed as the S&P 500 came in contact with the 1250 line, but buyers have successfully pushed the broad market measure above that line so that it is now only a few points shy of where it started the year.

All 10 major sectors are in positive territory for the second straight session, but energy plays are outperforming. The sector is up almost 2% at the moment.

Consumer discretionary plays, up a relatively tame 0.7%, have been hampered by a mixed bag of same-store sales results from retailers. Although their monthly results have been lackluster, quarterly earnings reports continue to generally exceed expectations. Dow component Kraft (KFT 35.93, +1.29) is among the most recent to post upside earnings surprises, as are Qualcomm (QCOM 55.65, +3.47) and CVS Caremark (CVS 37.16, +1.39).

As for data, the ISM Services Index for October came in at 52.9, which is less than the 53.9 that had been broadly expected. Meanwhile, factory orders for September increased by 0.3%, which is a positive surprise since many had expected a 0.2% decline. As for weekly initial jobless claims, they stayed close to 400,000, as had been expected. DJ30 +145.24 NASDAQ +36.43 SP500 +15.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1520/1.02 bln/915 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2025/435 mln/900

12:30 pm : The S&P 500 has moved back to the 1250 line, which has been a point of resistance all session. In turn, gains by the broad market measure have been capped at about 1%.

Energy stocks continue to outperform. The sector is now back at its session high, sporting a 1.6% gain. Oil and gas equipment and service stocks are among the sector's strongest components. DJ30 +133.43 NASDAQ +31.21 SP500 +12.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1525/915 mln/885 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2020/390 mln/885

12:00 pm : After pausing near rebound highs stocks have started to turn lower. There isn't any catalyst to account for the downturn, so it's most likely owed to a loss of momentum with the S&P 500 stalling at the 1250 line, which also stymied its opening climb.DJ30 +105.62 NASDAQ +23.85 SP500 +9.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1555/830 mln/825 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1985/350 mln/890

11:30 am : The Nasdaq has extended its rebound to a new session high. Its upward push comes amid help from tech plays, which now sport a collective gain of 1.4%.

Neither the Dow nor the S&P 500 have confirmed session highs. Both have paused near the heights that they set earlier this morning.

Financials continue to slog along narrowly above the neutral line. It remains the worst performing sector, but consumer discretionary stocks aren't faring a whole lot better. As a group, consumer discretionary plays are up 0.4%. In focus are shares of Aropostale (ARO 17.18, +2.86), which have surged to a three-month high in response to increased guidance, and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 57.62, -16.39), which have slumped to one-month low in response to its latest quarterly report. DJ30 +131.65 NASDAQ +33.01 SP500 +12.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1430/710 mln/920 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1850/300 mln/1000

11:00 am : Stocks have rebounded from their early downturn, which actually took both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 into the red. The major averages aren't quite back to their morning highs, however.

Financials have been lagging all morning. Even as broad market strength is restored the sector remains mired at the neutral line. Banks have been a source of weakness in the sector. As such, the KBW Bank Index is down 0.6%. DJ30 +112.20 NASDAQ +20.07 SP500 +9.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1060/515 mln/1220 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1560/225 mln/1230

10:35 am : Natural gas prices were trading at about $3.92 per MMbtu only minutes ago, but the commodity has ticked up to $3.95 per MMbtu for a 1.5% gain in the wake of the latest weekly inventory report, which showed a build of 78 bcf when a build of 70 bcf had been expected. Elsewhere in the energy complex, oil prices are up 0.8% to $93.23 per barrel.

Among precious metals, gold prices are up a sharp 1.8% to $1761.50 per ounce while silver sports a 0.9% gain at $34.23 per ounce.

In the backdrop, the greenback has given up recent gains so that it is now flat against a collection of competing currencies. Its downturn is mostly owed to a bounce by the euro as participants come to believe that Greece will abandon its eurozone bailout referendum and acquiesce to the agenda of other eurozone members. DJ30 +64.03 NASDAQ +5.25 SP500 +4.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 800/375 mln/1420 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1215/170 mln/1540

10:05 am : The major market averages have surrendered almost all their opening gains as sellers step in to take control. The shift in sentiment started before the latest dose of data was released.

The ISM Services Index for October came in at 52.9, which is less than the 53.9 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Brieifng.com. Meanwhile, factory orders for September increased by 0.3%, which is a positive surprise since many had expected a 0.2% decline. DJ30 +43.52 NASDAQ -1.39 SP500 +1.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1430/160 mln/640 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2100/80 mln/575

09:45 am : For the second straight session the major equity averages are up solidly in the opening minutes of trade. Buying remains broad, but energy issues are leading the advance.

The energy sector is up 1.3%, which makes it this morning's top performing group. Up almost 12%, Alpha Natural Resources (ANR 26.75, +2.82) is a top performer in the space, thanks to an upside earnings surprise and subsequent analyst upgrade.

Consumer discretionary stocks are at the opposite end of things. The sector's opening gain has been almost completely surrendered as shares of retailers encounter selling after a raft of mixed same-store sales results. DJ30 +127.07 NASDAQ +16.00 SP500 +9.50

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +16.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +20.20. Trade is expected to start on a strong note, effectively extending the prior session's gains. The positive bias comes as participants respond to reports that pressure on Greece could prompt the country to abandon its referendum of the eurozone bailout and acquiesce to the agenda of the other eurozone members. News that the European Central Bank has become more accomodative in its policy with a reduction in its primary lending rate has further bolstered buying interest. Although earnings have taken a back seat to the events of Europe, quarterly reports continue to prove strong. Monthly same-store sales results have been more mixed, though. As for data, there really weren't any surprises to the latest weekly initial claims tally, which remained near 400,000. Still on the calendar is the latest ISM Services Index and monthly factory orders numbers, both of which are due at 10:00 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +14.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +16.20. Europe's bourses are sporting strong gains as traders there respond to reports that officials are putting pressure on Greece regarding its eurozone membership. The pressure comes after Greece proposed a referendum of the eurozone bailout plan. Some reports suggest that in the wake of the referendum's proposal support for Greece's prime minister has waned. The belief that Greece may back away from the referendum helped drive stocks in Europe higher in early trade. Gains have been extended in response to news that the European Central Bank trimmed 25 basis points from its primary lending rate, which now stands at 1.25%. Mario Draghi, the ECB's new president and successor to Jean Claude Trichet, will hold a press conference at 9:30 AM ET. Positive sentiment in Europe has taken the EuroStoxx 50 to a 2.0% gain. Meanwhile, Germany's DAX has advanced 3.2%. It is currently led by Man SE and Metro AG. Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank (DB) are also sporting impressive gains. Adidas and Linde AG are the only two names in the German bourse that have failed to find higher ground. France's CAC has climbed to a 3.3% gain amid leadership from financial outfits like BNP Paribas and Societe Generale. Britain's FTSE is lagging the other averages, but still up 1.1% for the session. Man Group Plc is a top performer there.

Overnight action in Asia saw Hong Kong's Hang Seng slide to a 2.5% loss. Property plays and banking issues proved especially heavy drags on overall trade. Energy issues were also pressured. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite closed with a gain of 0.2%. It was helped along by China Life. Japan's Nikkei was closed for holiday observance.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.20. Stock futures are off of their morning highs, but they continue to sport a nice lead over fair value. Initial jobless claims for the week ended October 29 totaled 397,000, which is essentially in step with the Briefing.com consensus call for 401,000 initial claims. The latest tally is down 9,000 week over week. As for continuing claims, they declined by 15,000 week over week to 3.68 million. Third quarter unit labor costs were also just released. They declined by 2.4%, which is a steeper slide than the 1.1% decline that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Productivity increased by 3.1% in the third quarter. That bested the 2.8% increase that had been broadly anticipated.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.50. Looking to build on the prior session's advance, premarket participants have bid stock futures higher. Traders continue to take their cues from Europe, where the region's major bourses are up sharply amid reports that eurozone offiicials are stepping up pressure on Greece after the country proposed a referendum on the eurozone bailout, effectively threatening to undermine an efficient implentation of that plan. The notion that the referendum could be pulled and that Greece's prime minister may have lost favor among party members has helped restore positive sentiment. The drama precedes the latest European Central Bank announcement, which is scheduled for 8:45 AM ET. Before that, though, participants get a dose of domestic data with weekly initial jobless claims and productivity and cost data at 8:30 AM ET. Factory orders numbers and the latest ISM Services Index will be posted at 10:00 AM ET. Earnings remain in the background, and remain solid overall. The latest round of monthly same-store sales has been more mixed.

06:48 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.00.

06:48 am : Nikkei...Holiday......... Hang Seng...19242.50...-491.20...-2.50%.

06:48 am : FTSE...5525.61...+41.50...+0.80%. DAX...6058.75...+93.10...+1.60%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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