TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Price Action Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
TheStrategyLab Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
wrbtrader (more info about me): http://www.thestrategylab.com/wrbtrader.htm
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Archive Real-Time Chat Logs (timestamp, entries/exits, position size): http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewforum.php?f=20
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Price Action Trading: http://www.thestrategylab.com/price-action-trading.htm
TheStrategyLab Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
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Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini RTY ($RTY_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $0.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini RTY Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $5.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup (formerly as TF @ The ICE)
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Today's Trade Log & Price Action Analysis is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=174&t=2724

All of my trades are posted real-time at the above link for today's archive chat log in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab free chat room via the user name wrbtrader for anyone to do a real-time review (you must be a member of the chat room for a real-time review). Although the trades and price action analysis are posted by me and other users of WRB Analysis in real-time...this is not a signal calling chat room nor is this a live trading room that has a head trader telling you what to do. I'm the moderator (I keep the peace between members) and my own live trades are posted within 3.2 seconds on average after the trade confirmation in my broker trade execution platform via an auto script to minimize delays in posting of my trades. You can review today's price action trade journal about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit, market analysis) as the trade traversed to its completion. In addition, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips in the free ##TheStrategyLab chat room involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility...all key concepts from the WRB Analysis free study guide even though the free chat room is not design to be an education chat room because the education is only performed at the forums in the private threads.


##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. The free chat room is not a signal calling trading room nor is it a live trading room with a head trader even though members of the chat room are posting their trades & market analysis in real-time. I do not mentor (never have) although I get many requests to do mentoring. There is education but only in members private threads at the forum involving members asking questions (help) about their own trading. Thus, the primary purpose of TheStrategyLab free chat room is for you to use as your trade journal so that you can use as valuable feedback about your own trading and for members to help each other...as in more eyes on the market. In addition, we highly recommend that you use the free chat room with a professional trade journal software like tradebench.com, edgewonk.com, tradervue.com, tradingdiarypro.com, stocktickr.com, journalsqrd.com, tradingdiary.pro, mxprofit.com or trademetria.com because they can provide you with the quantitative statistical analysis of your trading. You can then download your results and post them in your private thread at the forum.

Also, you can use TheStrategyLab free chat room to ask real-time WRB Analysis questions. Yet, please do not post your quantitative statistical analysis, brokerage statements in the free chat room. Instead, its highly recommended that you only post that particular information in your private thread for security reasons. Yet, if you want to post that type of information at another website, blog or chat room...that's your choice.

TheStrategyLab free chat room is on IRC via users request because the IRC servers are located in many different countries, software in many different languages, many different mobile apps, many different types of social media software can be used to log in along with IRC being easier to moderate via script codes when trouble makers, spammers and trolls show up. I'm the moderator of the free chat room via the user name wrbtrader. Thus, I keep the peace between members without hesitation in removing problematic traders so that members can peacefully post their market observations, trades, WRB Analysis commentary about the markets without being trolled or harassed.

TheStrategyLab free chat room is not for traders looking for someone to hold their hands and tell them when to buy or sell nor do we allow the free chat room to be used for mentoring because we do not offer a mentoring service. The purpose of TheStrategyLab is for you to post your real-time analysis or trades so that you can review as feedback for any trading day to provide valuable information about the results in your broker statements. If you join the free chat room and then you decide to not post any WRB Analysis about the price action or you decide to not post your trades or you decide to be silent (lurk without saying a word about today's markets)...you're not using the free chat room properly to help improve your trading.

In fact, we do not want silent (lurkers) traders to join the free chat room unless they are actively posting at the forum about their trading after the markets close. Access instructions for the free chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164


Also, posted below for you to review are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Price Action Analysis via Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR). All WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1 - 12 are included in the purchase of the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Daily Trading Plan Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=335&t=3584 contains brief information about trading plan, market context, brokers, trading time frames, position size management and other discussions.

-----------------------------

Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini RTY futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives for easy review to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker PnL statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

The Market at 04:25PM ET
Dow: -28.23… | Nasdaq: -5.40… | S&P: -1.23…
NASDAQ Vol: 1.53 bln… Adv: 1267… Dec: 1560…
NYSE Vol: 599 mln… Adv: 1480… Dec: 1417…

Moving the Market

Overnight signing of continuing resolution averts government shutdown

Thin trading conditions ahead of Monday's Christmas holiday

Sector Watch
Strong: Utilities, Real Estate, Materials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Telecom Services
Weak: Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, Information Technology
04:25PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] Friday's trading session for the stock market was a forgettable one and that's exactly how most market participants probably hoped it would be. There were no fireworks ahead of Monday's Christmas holiday, which will leave capital markets closed for a three-day stretch. The major indices dipped at the open and then held in tight trading ranges just shy of their starting levels over the course of the trading day.

The fireworks -- or the bombs really -- were reserved for bitcoin. It slumped below $11,000 today, which in itself doesn't mean much until one understands that was more than 30% below where it traded most of Thursday.

The collapse in bitcoin prices was not driven by any news, yet the collapse itself was the news. Buyers eventually emerged to repair a good portion of the damage, but it wasn't completely fixed. Bitcoin was last trading around $14,000 as of this writing.

The trading volume in the stock market was predictably low as many participants had clearly checked out for the day. NYSE volume totaled just 599 million shares.

Overall, there wasn't much conviction on the part of buyers or sellers. The final standings didn't show a single sector gaining, or losing, more than 1.0%.

The best-performing sector was real state (+0.7%), which also happened to be one of the worst-performing sectors for the week (-2.3%), suggesting it garnered some bargain-hunting interest. The same can be said for the utilities sector (+0.2%), which dropped 4.7% this week.

Those sectors, though, don't carry the weight to move the broader market, which was held back by losses in the more heavily-weighted financial (-0.2%), health care (-0.3%), consumer discretionary (-0.2%), and information technology (-0.1%) sectors.

The energy sector (+0.2%) for its part moved modestly higher, completing what was an excellent week (+4.6%) as it benefited from sector rotation activity.

Dow component Nike (NKE 63.30, -1.47, -2.3%), meanwhile, ended the week on a disappointing note after its fiscal second quarter report and outlook failed to excite investors further following a big run in the stock ahead of the report.

In other developments, Congress approved a continuing resolution to keep the government funded through January 19. President Trump signed that resolution today shortly before he also signed the tax bill into law.

Reviewing this morning's economic data, which included the Personal Income and Spending, Durable Orders, New Home Sales, and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reports:

Personal income increased 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%), led by a 0.4% increase in wages and salaries, following an unrevised 0.4% increase in October. Personal spending jumped 0.6% (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%) following a downwardly revised 0.2% increase (from 0.3%) in October.
The personal savings rate dropped to 2.9% from 3.2%. That is the lowest personal savings rate since November 2007.
The PCE Price Index was up 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%), leaving it up 1.8% year-over-year versus up 1.6% year-over-year in October. The core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%) and was up 1.5% year-over-year versus up 1.4% year-over-year in October.
The key takeaway from the report lays in the upward drift of the PCE Price Index. It is moving closer to the Fed's 2.0% longer-run target, which is supportive of the Fed's inclination to pursue an upward drift in the target range for the fed funds rate.
Durable orders increased 1.3% (Briefing.com consensus +2.1%) following an upwardly revised 0.4% decline (from -1.2%) for October. Durable orders excluding transportation declined 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%) after increasing an upwardly revised 1.3% (from +0.4%) for October.
The weaker-than-expected readings for November were offset to a large extent by upward revisions to October, so they weren't necessarily that far out of line with prevailing expectations in front of the November report.
The key takeaway from the report is that it will still compute as a positive input for Q4 GDP forecasts since shipments of nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft increased 0.3% on top of a 1.3% increase in October.
New home sales soared 17.5% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 733,000 (Briefing.com consensus 652,000) from a downwardly revised 624,000 (from 685,000) in October. The November sales pace was the strongest since July 2007.
The key takeaway from the report is that there was sales growth in all regions, led by a huge pickup in sales in the South and the West, underscoring the solid demand for new homes in conjunction with a very tight market for existing homes.
The final reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report showed a dip to 95.9 (Briefing.com consensus 97.3) from the preliminary reading of 96.8.
The key takeaway from the report is that consumer sentiment remains at high levels. The final December reading was just below the 2017 average of 96.8, which was the highest average since 2000.

The lone economic release on Tuesday will be the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October (Briefing.com consensus 6.3%).

Nasdaq Composite: +29.3% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average: +25.3% YTD
S&P 500: +19.9% YTD
S&P 400: +14.6% YTD
Russell 2000: +13.7% YTD

Week in Review: A Season of Contentment

Notwithstanding the fact that the S&P 500 was only up 0.3% this week, it was a big week for the equity market and for the GOP.

The two were intertwined with the party-line passing of the tax bill, which marked the biggest overhaul of the tax code since 1986.

The featured item of the tax bill was a cut in the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, effective in 2018, and it is going to be joined with a reduction in individual tax rates as well.

The stock market has been rallying in recent weeks in anticipation of the tax bill's passage, so the subdued market gains in its wake were a testament to the notion that market participants were inclined to buy the rumor of its passage. They didn't necessarily sell the news, however.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500, the Russell 2000, and the S&P Midcap 400 Index all finished higher for the week, with gains ranging from 0.3% to 0.9%.

Those gains were underpinned by sector rotation, which featured losses for the technology (-0.2%), health care (-1.0%), real estate (-2.3%), utilities (-4.7%), and consumer staples (-0.2%) sectors, and gains for the financial (+0.8%), energy (+4.5%), materials (+2.2%), telecom services (+1.4%), industrials (+1.1%), and consumer discretionary (+1.0%) sectors.

In other words, there was relative strength in many of the cyclical sectors, which are expected to benefit from stronger economic activity. That strength was forged somewhat at the expense of the technology sector, which has been a leading standout all year, inviting concerns that it is overowned and vulnerable to rebalancing efforts as 2017 ends.

Glad tidings pertaining to the expected pickup in economic growth finally availed themselves at the back end of the Treasury yield curve.

The 10-year note yield jumped 14 basis points on the week to 2.49%, which is about even with where it started the year. In turn, the yield on the 2-yr note climbed seven basis points to 1.89%, driving what is referred to as a bear steepening trade in the Treasury market as the change at the back end was greater than the change at the front end.

A steepening yield curve is typically associated with a strengthening economy as stronger growth often invites higher inflation.

The growth outlook was bolstered this week by another batch of generally encouraging data, yet it was fueled by a series of impressive reports out of the housing sector.

The NAHB Homebuilder Index hit its highest level in December since 1999; the pace of existing home sales in November (5.81 million) was the strongest since December 2006; the pace of new home sales in November (733,000) was the strongest since July 2007; and both housing starts and building permits in November were stronger than expected.

Not surprisingly, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB 43.36) outperformed during the week, gaining 1.8%.

On the flip side, the utilities and real estate sectors, which provide nice dividend yields, fared poorly as the jump in long-term rates challenged their appeal for income-oriented investors.

The utilities sector, which is highly regulated, also got pinched by concerns that it won't benefit much from the changes in the tax code.

Fortunately for the broader market, the utilities sector has a very small weighting in the S&P 500, so its large losses were easily offset by the gains in the more heavily-weighted financial and energy sectors.

Generally speaking, then, the stock market is going into the Christmas holiday in good spirits, content to know that a tax cut is coming in 2018 and that Santa is coming on Monday.

Dow: -28.23… | Nasdaq: -5.40… | S&P: -1.23…

NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1267/1560. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1480/1417.

03:35PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] Commodities end the day higher:

Overall, commodities, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, are currently up 0.55% at 85.7451
Dollar index is currently up 0% at 93.28
Jan WTI Crude is down 0.12% on the day.
Baker Hughes total U.S. rig count increased by 1 to 931 following last week's decrease of 1
Futures settle $0.07 lower to $58.29/barrel.
In other energy, Jan Natural Gas settled up $0.05 at $2.65/MMBtu
On the metals:
Feb Gold gained $8.70 to settle at $1279.30/oz, while Mar silver gained $0.2 to $16.44/oz
Mar Copper gained $0.02 to $3.24/lb
Finally, agriculture:
Mar Corn settled unchanged at $3.52/bu.
Jan Soy settled up $0.0025 at $9.5025/bu.
Mar wheat settled flat at $4.25/bu.

Dow: -38.07… | Nasdaq: -7.26… | S&P: -1.42…

NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1216/1659. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1475/1431.

02:55PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] The major indices remain below their starting levels, as they have throughout today's trading session. The way this year has gone, however, one can't rule out the possibility of buyers emerging late to save the day.

We'll find out soon enough if that ends up being the case, but to this point, the buyers haven't been forcing the action.

Strikingly, market internals today show more advancing issues (1565) than declining issues (1328) at the NYSE. The reverse is true at the Nasdaq where declining issues (1577) outnumber advancing issues (1289).

Taking those numbers into account, it's fair to say that it's a mixed market today without a lot o conviction from buyers or sellers.

Dow: -31.16… | Nasdaq: -4.87… | S&P: -0.98…

NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1289/1577. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1565/1328.

02:30PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] You know that feeling you get when you are standing in a long line at the mall with your kids to see Santa? Well, that same feeling resonates today watching the stock market trade.

You know there is an end in sight, but it seems to be taking an extra long time getting there. That's because the underlying trading action has been as exciting as, well, standing in a long line at the mall to see Santa.

The major indices are little changed for the day and have managed to cut larger (but not large at all) losses seen earlier in the session. To that end, the financial sector, which was down 0.6% at one point, is now down 0.3%.

In some company-specific news, re/code, citing a person familiar with the situation, reported that Home Depot (HD 187.93, -0.14, -0.1%) has talked about possibly acquiring XPO Logistics (XPO 87.70, +9.01, +11.5%).

Dow: -46.85… | Nasdaq: -6.11… | S&P: -1.78…

NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1279/1596. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1564/1331.

01:55PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] The Treasury market hasn't had any news-driven impact on the stock market today even though there were a number of economic releases this morning that could have made it so.

Instead, the trading action in the Treasury market has been reminiscent of the trading action in the stock market, which is to say it has been uneventful as buyers and sellers alike have lacked conviction.

The changes across he yield curve have been minimal. The 2-yr yield is up one basis point to 1.89% while the 10-yr yield is unchanged at 2.48%.

The Treasury market, however, is wrapping things up with an early close at 2:00 p.m. ET. The stock market is in it for the long haul and will conclude its session per usual at 4:00 p.m. ET.

Dow: -48.96… | Nasdaq: -7.79… | S&P: -2.33…

NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1240/1628. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1530/1359.

01:30PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] The major indices remain pinned down, yet they haven't been counted out yet as they continue to hold relatively close to where they started the day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.22%) leads the major indices in terms of point and percentage declines, but nothing is glaring in terms of its overall performance considering it was up 25.4% for the year entering today's action.

With the latter in mind, today's losses are a drop in the bucket.

The majority of the 30 Dow components are in red figures at the moment, with the top three point losers being UnitedHealth (UNH 219.30, -2.39, -1.1%), Goldman Sachs (GS 258.94, -2.07, -0.8%), and Nike (NKE 62.84, -1.93, -3.0%).

Dow: -53.86… | Nasdaq: -13.28… | S&P: -3.76…

NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1196/1675. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1486/1378.

12:55PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] It has been an understated trading affair for the stock market so far today, as the major indices have held in tight trading ranges modestly below their opening levels throughout the session.

Currently, the major indices are all lower by 0.1% to 0.2%.

There has been a lack of conviction in today's market, which is not entirely surprising given that many participants have probably checked out already in front of Monday's Christmas holiday. In the same vein, it is fair to say many market participants have probably checked out until after New Years.

In any event, volume has been light and trading moves -- other than in bitcoin -- have been pretty nondescript. Earlier today, the price of bitcoin dropped below $11,000 and was down roughly 30% from where it traded most of Thursday.

There wasn't a news catalyst for the plunge, yet the news of the plunge became the catalyst in a way for the overheated market. At last check, bitcoin was trading around $13,000, proving that timing has been everything for bitcoin traders today.

Back to the stock market, the losses have been paced by the financial (-0.5%), information technology (-0.2%), and consumer discretionary (-0.2%) sectors, which have fallen prone to profit taking. The weakness there, though, has been offset somewhat by continued strength in the energy sector (+0.5%) as sector rotation trades persist.

Dow component Nike (NKE 62.95, -1.82, -2.8%) has been a story stock of note, losing ground in the wake of its fiscal second quarter earnings report, which featured an upside earnings surprise but a decline in gross margins.

Separately, Congress passed a continuing resolution last night to fund the government through January 19. That resolution averted a shutdown and was signed today by President Trump who also signed the tax bill into law.

Although there hasn't been a lot of noteworthy corporate news today, there was a good bit of noteworthy economic data.

Reviewing this morning's economic data, which included the Personal Income and Spending, Durable orders, New Home Sales, and university of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reports:

Personal income increased 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%), led by a 0.4% increase in wages and salaries, following an unrevised 0.4% increase in October. Personal spending jumped 0.6% (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%) following a downwardly revised 0.2% increase (from 0.3%) in October.
The personal savings rate dropped to 2.9% from 3.2%. That is the lowest personal savings rate since November 2007.
The PCE Price Index was up 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%), leaving it up 1.8% year-over-year versus up 1.6% year-over-year in October. The core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%) and was up 1.5% year-over-year versus up 1.4% year-over-year in October.
The key takeaway from the report lays in the upward drift of the PCE Price Index. It is moving closer to the Fed's 2.0% longer-run target, which is supportive of the Fed's inclination to pursue an upward drift in the target range for the fed funds rate.
Durable orders increased 1.3% (Briefing.com consensus +2.1%) following an upwardly revised 0.4% decline (from -1.2%) for October. Durable orders excluding transportation declined 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%) after increasing an upwardly revised 1.3% (from +0.4%) for October.
The weaker-than-expected readings for November were offset to a large extent by upward revisions to October, so they weren't necessarily that far out of line with prevailing expectations in front of the November report.
The key takeaway from the report is that it will still compute as a positive input for Q4 GDP forecasts since shipments of nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft increased 0.3% on top of a 1.3% increase in October.
New home sales soared 17.5% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 733,000 (Briefing.com consensus 652,000) from a downwardly revised 624,000 (from 685,000) in October. The November sales pace was the strongest since July 2007.
The key takeaway from the report is that there was sales growth in all regions, led by a huge pickup in sales in the South and the West, underscoring the solid demand for new homes in conjunction with a very tight market for existing homes.
The final reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report showed a dip to 95.9 (Briefing.com consensus 97.3) from the preliminary reading of 96.8.
The key takeaway from the report is that consumer sentiment remains at high levels. The final December reading was just below the 2017 average of 96.8, which was the highest average since 2000.

Dow: -57.99… | Nasdaq: -15.74… | S&P: -4.37…

NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1204/1646. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1463/1398.

12:25PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] The major indices are locked in tight trading ranges amid a lack of conviction on the part of buyers and sellers.

Thus far, sellers have held the upper hand today and the result has been modest declines for the major indices.

Most asset markets, though, are rolling in a narrow range, which includes Treasuries, the dollar, and oil ($58.21, -$0.15, -0.3%).

One spot seeing a decent-sized uptick in percentage terms is the CBOE Volatility Index (9.99, +0.37, +3.9%), yet bear in mind that today's move has originated from a very low (near historic low) base.

Dow: -37.42… | Nasdaq: -15.06… | S&P: -3.48…

NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1198/1656. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1459/1384.

12:00PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] The major indices remain on the defensive, weighed down by a lack of buying interest. Things could be worse, though -- a lot worse like the losses seen in bitcoin today.

At one juncture, the price of bitcoin was trading below $11,000, leaving it down more than 40% from the record high it hit... this week!

Anyhow, without a lot of excitement in the stock market today, there is a lot of attention being paid to cryptocurrency dealings, including the bid to buy into the large declines.

In terms of the stock market, losses in the financial sector (-0.6%) continue to be the main drag on the broader market, although they are being offset somewhat by continued strength in the energy sector (+0.5%).

Dow: -43.91… | Nasdaq: -14.41… | S&P: -4.52…

NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1130/1714. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1387/1457.

11:30AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] Some further slippage for the major indices, which is being led by the financial sector (-0.5%).

Weakness in the latter area is most likely a function of profit taking following a big run for the sector, which many participants think is overbought on a short-term basis. To that end, the financial sector, including today's loss, is up 6.9% over the last month versus a 3.3% gain for the S&P 500.

The run in the financials has been precipitated by enthusiasm for the passage of the tax bill (the president signed into law today), which in turn has facilitated a hefty sector rotation trade into stocks like the financials that are deemed to have a more appealing value orientation.

Some financial laggards of note today include AIG (AIG 59.37, -0.72, -1.2%), Aon (AON 133.33, -2.00, -1.5%), and E*Trade Financial (ETFC 49.44, -0.52, -1.0%).

Dow: -37.33… | Nasdaq: -9.40… | S&P: -3.27…

11:00AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] It has been a somewhat listless start to the day for the equity market as the major indices are all posting modest losses.

In a certain respect, there is a reversal of yesterday's activity. To wit, the financial (-0.4%) and consumer discretionary (-0.2%) sectors are trailing behind while the utilities (+0.5%) and real state (+0.5%) sectors are pacing the upside leadership.

The energy sector (+0.2%), meanwhile, is still exhibiting a positive bias as it continues to receive the benefit of a sector rotation trade after it has trailed throughout the year.

The energy sector, which is down 4.0% year-to-date, is up 4.6% this week.

Dow: -25.86… | Nasdaq: -6.88… | S&P: -1.88…

NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1197/1616. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1391/1396.

10:30AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] Commodities begin the day flat :

Overall, commodities, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, are currently up 0.19% at 85.4387
Dollar index is currently flat at 93.28
Jan WTI crude is down 0.48% on the day.
Baker Hughes rig count due out at noon eastern.
Futures are $0.28 lower to $58.08/barrel.
In other energy, Jan natural gas is up $0.05 at $2.65/MMBtu
Metals:
Feb gold gained $4.80 and trades at $1275.40/oz, while Mar silver gained $0.08 to $16.32/oz
Mar copper gained 0.01 to $3.23/lb
Finally, agriculture:
Mar corn is unchanged at $3.51/bu.
Jan soy is down $0.01 at $9.485/bu.
Mar wheat is up $0.01 at $4.28/bu.

Dow: -23.28… | Nasdaq: -7.25… | S&P: -2.02…

NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1190/1621. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1368/1417.

10:00AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 remains near its flat line.

Just reported, New Home Sales hit an annualized rate of 733,000 in November, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 652,000. The October figure was revised to 624,000 from 685,000.

Separately, the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December increased to 95.9 (Briefing.com consensus 97.3) from 96.8 in the preliminary reading.

Dow: -13.43… | Nasdaq: -5.81… | S&P: +0.33…

NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1117/1583. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1335/1349.

09:45AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 sports a one-point loss after a quiet start to the cash session.

Five out of eleven sectors are among the early laggards, but the weakest groups-consumer discretionary and technology-are down just 0.3% apiece. On the flip side, financials (+0.3%) and consumer staples (+0.2%) have shown some early strength.

Two more data points are set to cross the wires this morning with November New Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus: 652K; prior: 685K) and the final reading of the Michigan Sentiment Index for December (Briefing.com consensus: 97.3; prior: 96.8) scheduled to be reported at 10:00 ET.

Dow: -19.51… | Nasdaq: -13.51… | S&P: -1.01…

NASDAQ Adv/Dec 957/1701. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1202/1433.

09:12AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.10.

The stock market is on track for a slightly higher open with futures on the S&P 500 trading just above fair value.

With a three-day weekend looming, today's session is expected to be pretty quiet, especially since the uncertainty associated with a government shutdown was averted thanks to an overnight vote in Washington. Last night's vote in Congress delayed shutdown-related concerns through January 19, and the attached pay-go waiver opened the door to a signing of the tax bill before 2018.

On the corporate front, NIKE (NKE 62.35, -2.42) is set to open lower by 3.7%. The athletic apparel giant reported better than expected results, but showed a decline in North American sales and narrowing margins. On the flip side, uniform supplier Cintas (CTAS 163.25, +3.60) has climbed 2.3% in pre-market, responding to better than expected results and guidance.

Treasuries are mixed, but the 10-yr note trades flat with its yield at 2.48%.

08:55AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.40.

The S&P 500 futures trade six points above fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mixed, but generally quiet, note. China Daily reported that the People's Bank of China is unlikely to raise rates in 2018. Elsewhere, Hong Kong's Monetary Authority will monitor capital outflows associated with the end of the year. South Korean officials refuted a report claiming that North Korea and South Korea discussed military drills and the upcoming Winter Olympics.

There was no economic data of note

---Equity Markets---

Japan's Nikkei added 0.2%, gaining 1.6% for the week. Sumitomo Metal Mining, Toho Zinc, Japan Steel Works, Ricoh, Furukawa, Komatsu, DOWA Holdings, Hitachi Construction, and Mitsubishi Materials posted gains between 1.8% and 5.0%. Drugmaker Eisai fell 14.9% after its phase II Alzheimer's study failed to meet its primary endpoint.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.7%, extending this week's gain to 2.5%. Consumer names like China Mengniu Dairy and Want Want China led with respective gains of 5.5% and 3.3% while Bank of East Asia, AIA Group, Henderson Land, Link Reit, Sino Land, and Wharf Holdings advanced between 1.1% and 1.8%.
China's Shanghai Composite shed 0.1%, trimming its weekly gain to 1.0%. SDIC Zhonglu Fruit Juice, Jiangsu Zongyi, Triumph Science & Technology, Shanghai Feilo Acoustics, and Sichuan Swellfun lost between 2.9% and 5.0%.
India's Sensex climbed 0.6% to a new record, gaining 2.1% for the week. Tech consultants were among the leaders with Tata Consultancy, Infosys, and Wipro rising between 1.2% and 1.8%. Financials had a good showing with SBI, AXIS Bank, ICICI Bank, and HDFC Bank adding between 0.5% and 1.0%.

Major European indices trade in the red with Spain's IBEX (-1.2%) underperforming after separatist parties secured 70 out of 135 parliamentary seats. The pro-unity Ciudadanos Party won the largest number of seats (37), but the strong performance by separatists sets up another battle with Spain's central government. The UK's FTSE closed early.

In economic data:
Germany's November Import Price Index +0.8% month-over-month (last 0.6%); +2.7% year-over-year, as expected (last 2.6%). January GfK Consumer Climate 10.8, as expected (last 10.7)
UK's Q3 GDP +0.4% quarter-over-quarter, as expected (last 0.4%); +1.7% year-over-year (consensus 1.5%; last 1.9%). Q3 Current Account deficit GBP22.80 billion (expected deficit of GBP21.20 billion; last deficit of GBP25.80 billion)
France's November Consumer Spending +2.2% month-over-month (expected 1.5%; last -2.1%). November PPI +1.4% month-over-month (last 0.2%)
Italy's December Business Confidence 110.5 (expected 111.0; last 110.7) and Consumer Confidence 116.6 (expected 114.0; last 114.4). December CPI 0.0% month-over-month (expected -0.2%; last -0.2%). October Industrial Sales +6.0% year-over-year (last 5.2%) and October Industrial New Orders +12.5% year-over-year (last 4.5%)
Swiss December KOF Leading Indicators 111.3 (expected 110.2; last 110.4)

---Equity Markets---

UK's FTSE shed 0.2% after inching to a new record high. Consumer names like Next, Reckitt Benckiser, Associated British Foods, Kingfisher, Marks & Spencer, Burberry, and Dixons Carphone sport gains between 0.7% and 3.0%. Select financials lag with Old Mutual, Barclays, RBS, and Standard Chartered trading down between 0.3% and 1.1%.
Germany's DAX has shed 0.2%. Thyssenkrupp, BMW, Fresenius, Daimler, SAP, and Volkswagen show losses between 0.3% and 0.8%. Utilities outperform with RWE climbing 2.1% and E.On rising 0.8%.
France's CAC is lower by 0.4%. Financials like Unibail Rodamco, AXA, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, and Societe Generale are down between 0.7% and 1.6%. TechnipFMC, Carrefour, and Danone outperform, adding between 0.2% and 1.0%.
Spain's IBEX is down 1.1%. Caixabank, Banco Sabadell, Santander, BBVA, Bankia, and Bankinter hold losses between 0.8% and 3.4%.


08:35AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.80.

The S&P 500 futures trade seven points above fair value.

Just in, personal income climbed 0.3% in November (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%) following an unrevised increase of 0.4% in October. Meanwhile, personal spending rose 0.6% in November (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%), up from a revised increase of 0.2% in October (from 0.3%).

The PCE Price Index increased 0.2% in November (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%), while the core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%). Year-over-year, the core PCE Price Index is up 1.5%.

November durable goods orders increased 1.3%, which is worse than the 2.1% increase expected by the Briefing.com consensus. The prior month's reading was revised to -0.4% from -1.2%. Excluding transportation, durable orders decreased 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%) to follow the prior month's revised increase of 1.3% (from 0.4%).

07:52AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +7.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.40.

U.S. equity futures point to slim opening gains on Wall Street, but the session is expected to be subdued, given the upcoming three-day weekend. The S&P 500 futures trade seven points above fair value.

Last evening, Congress voted in favor of a continuing resolution that will fund the Federal government through January 19. The continuing resolution included a pay-go waiver, meaning President Trump will be able to sign the tax bill today, instead of waiting until January.

While today's session is expected to see limited trading activity, participants will receive a large dose of economic reports. November Personal Income (Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%; prior: 0.4%), Personal Spending (Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%; prior: 0.3%), PCE Prices (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%; prior: 0.1%), PCE Prices - Core (Briefing.com consensus: 0.1%; prior: 0.2%), November Durable Orders (Briefing.com consensus: 2.1%; prior: -1.2%), and Durable Goods -ex transportation (Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%; prior: 0.4%) will be reported at 8:30 ET. That batch will be followed by the release of November New Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus: 652K; prior: 685K) and December Michigan Sentiment -- Final (Briefing.com consensus: 97.3; prior: 96.8) at 10:00 ET

Longer-dated U.S. Treasuries show slim losses with the 10-yr yield rising one basis point to 2.49%.

In U.S. corporate news:

NIKE (NKE 63.10, -1.67): -2.6% after the company's above-consensus report showed contracting margins and expectations for a continuation of the trend
Cintas (CTAS 164.98, +5.33): +3.3% after beating quarterly estimates and guiding ahead of expectations
Smart Global Holdings (SGH 34.22, +3.11): +10.0% in response to upbeat earnings and guidance

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mixed, but generally quiet, note. Japan's Nikkei +0.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.7%, China's Shanghai Composite -0.1%
There was no economic data of note
In news:
China Daily reported that the People's Bank of China is unlikely to raise rates in 2018.

Major European indices trade in negative territory. France's CAC -0.5%, Germany's DAX -0.3%, and UK's FTSE closed early, losing 0.2%
In economic data:
Germany's November Import Price Index +0.8% month-over-month (last 0.6%); +2.7% year-over-year, as expected (last 2.6%). January GfK Consumer Climate 10.8, as expected (last 10.7)
UK's Q3 GDP +0.4% quarter-over-quarter, as expected (last 0.4%); +1.7% year-over-year (consensus 1.5%; last 1.9%). Q3 Current Account deficit GBP22.80 billion (expected deficit of GBP21.20 billion; last deficit of GBP25.80 billion)
France's November Consumer Spending +2.2% month-over-month (expected 1.5%; last -2.1%). November PPI +1.4% month-over-month (last 0.2%)
Italy's December Business Confidence 110.5 (expected 111.0; last 110.7) and Consumer Confidence 116.6 (expected 114.0; last 114.4). December CPI 0.0% month-over-month (expected -0.2%; last -0.2%). October Industrial Sales +6.0% year-over-year (last 5.2%) and October Industrial New Orders +12.5% year-over-year (last 4.5%)
Swiss December KOF Leading Indicators 111.3 (expected 110.2; last 110.4)
In news:
Catalan separatist parties secured 70 out of 135 parliamentary seats. The pro-unity Ciudadanos Party won the largest number of seats (37), but the strong performance by separatists sets up another battle with Spain's central government.

05:50AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.80.
05:51AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...22903...+36.70...+0.20%

Hang Seng...29578...+211.00...+0.70%

05:51AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...7607.16...+3.20...+0.00%

DAX...13092.92...-16.80...-0.10%

04:25PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market on Thursday did what it has done all year and avoided follow-through losses. Some closing selling interest, however, cut into larger gains and spoiled what was shaping up to be a record-high close for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000.

Still, the major indices never saw red figures during the trading session and ended the day with gains ranging from 0.1% to 0.5%.

There were pockets of weakness, like the semiconductor industry, which fell prone to profit taking, and the utilities sector (-1.2%), which got rolled back on PG&E's (PCG 44.50, -6.62, -13.0%) announcement that it is suspending its dividend to preserve cash in the event its equipment is found to be a substantial cause of the October 2017 Northern California wildfires.

The losses in the semiconductor space knocked the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index back 1.1% and weighed on the S&P 500 information technology sector (-0.3%), which found itself in a trailing position most of the day.

Otherwise, the broader market showed good resilience to selling efforts, garnering support from the outperformance of the energy (+2.1%), financial (+0.9%), telecom services (+0.7%), and consumer discretionary (+0.6%) sectors, which benefited in part from sector rotation and some company-specific announcements.

AT&T (T 38.88, +0.33, +0.9%), for instance, said it will offer its workers $1,000 bonuses and increase its capital spending budget by $1 billion now that tax reform has been approved. Comcast (CMCSA 40.81, +1.43, +3.6%) also announced a plan to give its employees $1,000 bonuses and to increase its capital spending.

Separately, Wells Fargo (WFC 61.61, +1.47, +2.4%) noted, with the passage of the tax bill, that it will raise its minimum hourly pay rate to $15.00 from $13.50. Fifth Third (FITB 30.93, +0.42, +1.4%) also raised its minimum hourly rate to $15.000 and added that it will give a $1,000 bonus to more than 13,500 employees.

The Russell 2000 (+0.5%) outlegged all the other indices as optimism surrounding the cut in the corporate tax rate kept the small-cap index afloat. Domestically-oriented small-cap companies are seen as receiving a greater benefit from that tax cut since they typically pay a higher effective tax rate.

In other developments, the Bank of Japan voted 8-1 to leave its key policy rate and asset purchase program unchanged. Separately, Dow component Boeing (BA 295.03, -2.87, -1.0%) and Brazilian company Embraer (ERJ 24.42, +4.43, +22.2%) confirmed they are holding discussions about a possible combination.

Congress, meanwhile, continues to work on a continuing resolution to keep the government open. A deal needs to be reached before midnight on Friday.

Press reports suggested the leading resolution will provide government funding through January 19. Assuming it is approved, and it also includes a PAYGO waiver, President Trump could sign the tax bill into law as early as Friday.

The latter would be the most notable news item if it happened on Friday, yet it could be preempted possibly by the news of a government shutdown.

Other key happenings on Friday include the release of a large slate of economic data that includes the Personal Income and Spending report for November, the Durable Orders report for November, New Home Sales for November, the final December reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Reviewing Thursday's economic data, which included the third estimate for Q3 GDP, the weekly initial claims, Philadelphia Fed Index, and Leading Economic Index reports:

The third estimate for third quarter GDP carried a slight downward revision to 3.2% (Briefing.com consensus 3.3%) from 3.3%, as more complete source data showed personal consumption expenditures increased less than previously estimated (2.2% vs. 2.3%). The GDP Deflator was left unchanged at 2.1%, as expected.
The key takeaway from the report is that it was little changed, which maintains the impression that U.S. economic output is carrying on at an encouraging 3.0%+ clip.
Initial claims for the week ending December 16 increased by 20,000 to 245,000 (Briefing.com consensus 236,000) while continuing claims for the week ending December 9 increased by 43,000 to 1.932 million.
While the claims headlines were a little worse than expected, the key takeaway is that they did nothing to disrupt the underlying trend of jobless claims running near historically low levels.
The Philadelphia Fed Index increased from 22.7 in November to 26.2 in December (Briefing.com consensus 21.0), led by an eight-point jump in the New Orders Index from 21.4 to 29.8. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 0.0.
The key takeaway from the report is that current indicators suggest solid growth for the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia Fed region.
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index increased 0.4% in November, as expected, on top of an unrevised 1.2% increase in October. November marked the 15th straight month of gains for the Leading Economic Index.
The key takeaway from the report is that the leading economic index increased at a faster pace (3.0%) for the six-month period ending November 2017 than it did for the previous six months (+2.4%), as strengths among the leading indicators have remained widespread.

Dow: +55.64… | Nasdaq: +4.40… | S&P: +5.32…

NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1717/1101. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1785/1135.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. Also, thank you for the review of TheStrategyLab performance record...hopefully the links and data will be useful for you.

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M.A. Perry
Online user name wrbtrader (more info about me) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/wrbtrader.htm
TheStrategyLab Price Action Trading (no indicators)
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
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