TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Note: Today's results include an open 10 contract swing trade position that was open around 1517pm est.

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ ($1,080.00) dollars or -10.80 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +00.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Loss @ ($1,080.00) dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=136&t=1935


Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=250&t=2561

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

4:20 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market followed the script on Friday of making a big statement by doing very little. The major indices held to tight trading ranges and didn't venture that far from where they began the session.

The market's meandering disposition was a function of offsetting considerations that it is due for a pullback after its big run, yet in the midst of a typically favorable period that is causing some angst about the possibility of missing out on further gains.

Accordingly, it was a bit of a chopfest as far as Friday's trading action was concerned, but true to recent form, a closing burst of buying interest materialized that helped the S&P 500 eke out a positive finish.

The energy (+0.8%), technology (+0.6%), and consumer discretionary (+0.4%) sectors were the heavily-weighted sectors showing gains while the health care (-0.8%), consumer staples (-0.6%), and financial (-0.4%) sectors were the heavily-weighted sectors showing offsetting losses. The industrials sector finished up fractionally, the telecom services sector added 0.6%, the materials sector advanced 0.3%, and the utilities sector dipped 0.4%.

Much of the more scintillating trading action took place away from the stock market. To that end, the Treasury market experienced a seesaw day that featured early weakness and later strength. The yield on the 10-yr note swung from a high of 2.38% to a low of 2.32%, where it settled its technically-driven session.

The commodities arena was a focal point throughout the day, primarily because oil prices bounced back to the doorstep of $76.00/bbl ($75.98) after dropping below $73.50 in overnight action. The turnaround was helped along presumably by some short-covering activity, yet it proved instrumental in driving the outperformance of the energy sector. On a related note, it was reported that the House of Representatives passed a bill allowing for the construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline.

The metals, in turn, saw some big gains with gold jumping 2.5% to $1191.00/troy ounce, silver popping 4.5% to $16.33/troy ounce, and copper gaining 1.8% to $3.05/lbs.

Those recovery efforts helped underpin the S&P 500 materials sector, which also benefited from better-than-feared GDP data out of the eurozone, a 0.3% increase in retail sales in the U.S. in October, and the highest reading for consumer sentiment in November (89.4), as measured by the University of Michigan, since July 2007.

Within the stock market, the health care sector was the worst-performing area on Friday thanks in large part to profit-taking efforts in the biotech stocks. Celgene (CELG 104.01, -3.42), Biogen-Idec (BIIB 305.43, -12.55), and Amgen (AMGN 157.68, -3.17) all declined between 2.0% and 4.0%.

There wasn't a single sector, though, that finished up or down at least 1.0%, which fit the template of being a mixed day of trading. Similarly, 16 of the Dow's components ended higher while 14 ended lower. IBM (IBM 164.16, +1.37) led the winners while Visa (V 248.84, -2.08) paced the decliners.

Elsewhere, the Russell 2000 finished down 0.1% while the S&P Midcap 400 Index suffered a fractional loss.

DJIA +6.4% YTD
Nasdaq Composite +12.3% YTD
S&P 500 +10.4% YTD
Russell 2000 +0.8% YTD

3:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

In afternoon trading, WTI crude oil, gold and silver all hits new highs for the day as dollar index remained near LoD
In electronic trade, this continues to be the case
Dec crude oil closed the day +2.4% at $75.90/barrel, but temporarily rose above $76
Dec natural gas rose modestly, ending +1.3% at $4.02/MMBtu
Dec gold rally big, closing 2.1% higher at $1186.20/oz, while Dec silver +2.1% at $16.28/oz
Dec copper gained +1.7% at $3.05/lb

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Still more of the same in terms of the market being mixed and the major indices showing little change heading into the final hour of trading.

Judging by the standing of the CBOE Volatility Index (13.72, -0.07), there isn't a lot of hedging activity taking place in front of the weekend. To be sure, the rally off the October lows has tempered a good bit of the "fear" seen in the index in the early part of October. From its high in mid-October, the VIX Index has plunged roughly 55%.

Strikingly, after breaking below $75.00/bbl yesterday, oil futures have made a push today back to the doorstep of $76.00/bbl (currently $75.98). With oil prices holding up, the energy sector has been a pocket of relative strength today.

health care (-1.0%) has been weak all day and is the only sector that has moved at least 1.0%.

2:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major indices have drifted lower in the afternoon session, but if the trading action this week is any indication, one shouldn't take for granted that the negative disposition will be maintained. This market hasn't gone far this week, but it has shown a lot of fight.

Two of the best-performing areas this week have been the Nasdaq Composite (+1.0%), helped in large part by a 4.2% gain for Apple (AAPL 113.61, +0.79), and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (+1.2%), which continues to draft off the decline in oil prices.

Oil has rebounded today (+1.4% to $75.26/bbl), yet prices have come down roughly 30% from their mid-June high just north of $107.00/bbl.

The energy sector has been up 0.9% today and down 0.1%. Right now, it is back in favor, up 0.7%.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The consolidation trade has been pretty prominent throughout the week. On Monday the S&P 500 closed at 2038.26. Today, it currently stands at 2036.49.

It has been a painful trade to watch minute-by-minute (as we do), yet it is symptomatic of a market that has run as far as this one has in such a short amount of time. For some perspective, the average annual price gain for the S&P 500 since 1929 is 7.2%. Between its low on October 15 and its high yesterday, the S&P 500 gained 12.4%.

It's tough to build on a move like that without some lateral to lower price action. This market will no doubt try, yet it's operating as if the consolidation trade is very much "on" at the moment.

Today's leadership remains the same with the technology (+0.4%) and energy (+0.6%) sectors helping to keep losses in check.

1:40 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages are settling into a bit of a trading lull as the Friday afternoon trading activity sets in. Looking out to next week, there are 22 S&P 500 constituents scheduled to report earnings, including retailers Urban Outfitters (URBN), Home Depot (HD), Lowe's (LOW), Target (TGT), Best Buy (BBY) and Gap (GPS), among others.

While the broader equity markets are showing little action in afternoon trade, the commodities complex remains in focus as WTI crude oil, gold and silver all hits new highs for the day as dollar index remains near lows of the day. Dec crude oil is now +1.9% at $75.62/barrel; Dec gold is +2.6% at $1191.70/oz; Dec silver +4.2% at $16.28/oz.

1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market's behavior today has mimicked a lot of what has been seen throughout the week. In other words, the major indices have been mixed, showing little separation from where they started the day and where they stand now.

The lack of conviction is understandable.

It's not a stretch to think that the market is due for a pullback after a 12% gain from the low in mid-October; hence, buyers are showing some reserve. Conversely, the resilience to selling efforts after that big run has stirred concerns about missing out on further gains in a typically favorable seasonal period for the stock market; hence, sellers are showing some reserve.

We said earlier today that it's panning out like a game of chicken and so far nobody is blinking.

The mixed standing is a function of strength in the technology (+0.5%), consumer discretionary (+0.3%), and energy (+0.2%) sectors and relative weakness in the health care (-0.8%), consumer staples (-0.4%), and financial (-0.2%) sectors.

Within the Dow, 14 components are up and 16 components are down. Visa (V 249.89, -1.03) is the only component that has moved more than a point.

Oil prices are acting better today. They are up 1.5% to $75.35/bbl in a rebound trade that has helped lend support to the energy sector along with some M&A buzz that has picked up after Halliburton (HAL 54.35, +0.55) and Baker Hughes (BHI 58.54, -0.21) confirmed they are in merger discussions.

Today's economic data didn't produce any big surprises, but on balance it was good news, beginning with better than feared GDP and CPI readings for the eurozone. In the U.S.:

Retail sales jumped 0.3% in October as did sales, excluding autos. Both increases were basically in-line with estimates.
Consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, ticked up to 89.4 in November from 86.9 in October. That is the highest reading since July 2007, yet given the jump in stock prices and job gains, and the drop in gasoline prices, it probably shouldn't be regarded as much of a surprise that the headline number topped expectations
Business inventories increased 0.3% in September (Briefing.com consensus estimate +0.2%). The BEA assumed in its advance Q3 GDP estimate that business inventories were flat in September, so the positive surprise should factor favorably in the second GDP estimate

There hasn't been a lot of corporate news driving the price action (or lack thereof), yet some notable pockets of weakness include the biotech stocks and watch designer Movado (MOV 26.50, -12.01). With the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 288.18, -5.71) increasing 22% between its October 15 low and close on October 31, it stands to reason that the former are down on profit taking. Movado, meanwhile, has gone off like a time bomb after issuing third quarter, fourth quarter, and full-year guidance that is well below analysts' expectations due in part to what the company described as an overall slowdown in the watch category.

Separately, the 10-yr note has seen some more notable price swings today. Its yield hit 2.38% earlier today but ran into resistance there and quickly backpedaled to 2.32%. It currently stands at 2.33%.

12:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market is struggling to find a meaningful way today as neither buyers nor sellers have shown much conviction. In a certain respect, the same can be said for the Treasury market, which was hurt earlier by selling interest but has been helped recently by buying interest.

The move in the Treasury market looks to be technical in nature. After testing resistance at 2.38% earlier, the yield on the 10-yr note turned abruptly lower and is now testing 2.32%. The 2.30%-2.39% channel has been the domain of the 10-yr note of late, unable to hold a posture below or above those areas for long in November.

Buying efforts are being seen across the Treasury yield curve at this point as yields have dropped 1-2 basis points for all maturities spanning from the 2-yr note to the 30-yr bond.

It's possible that some geopolitical concerns are feeding some of the buying interest ahead of the weekend, yet there is a clear element of technical trading behind the action.

11:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major indices continue to chop around in narrow ranges and are little changed for the session.

The lack of participant conviction is reflected in an advance-decline line that favors advancers at the NYSE by a small margin and decliners at the Nasdaq by a small margin.

There are six sectors trading higher right now and four sectors trading lower. No sector is up, or down, at least 1.0%.

Relative weakness in the health care (-0.8%) and financial (-0.1%) sectors, both of which are heavily-weighted in the S&P 500, is keeping a lid on the broader market, which is finding support from the technology (+0.4%) and consumer discretionary (+0.3%) sectors.

11:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The mixed trading action persists for the major indices. One development of note is that the energy sector (-0.1%), which was up as much as 0.9% shortly after the start of trading, has given back all of that gain and then some.

Further follow-through selling for the energy sector will act as a drag on the S&P 500 unless there is offsetting support from other heavily-weighted groups like the technology (+0.4%) and financial (flat) sectors.

Another area that will be watched closely is the Russell 2000. It underperformed in notable fashion yesterday with a 0.9% decline. It is basically flat at the moment, but if it relents again to selling pressure, it could lead to a pickup in selling interest as it is seen as a sign of an overextended market losing its steam.

10:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] It will bend but it won't break. That pretty much sums up how the stock market has traded so far today. There have been dips and every dip so far has been greeted with buying interest.

At this juncture, there isn't much change in the major indices as weakness in the health care sector (-0.9%) is being offset with gains in the information technology (+0.5%) and energy (+0.3%) sectors.

Biotech stocks have been a notable pocket of weakness in the health care sector on what appears to be profit-taking interest after a big move. To wit, the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 288.18, -5.71) is down close to 2.0% today after gaining as much as 22% between its low on October 15 and its high on October 31.

Losses in Amgen (AMGN 158.08, -2.77), Gilead Sciences (GILD 101.36, -2.84), Biogen-Idec (BIIB 303.99, -13.99) and Celgene (CELG 103.40, -4.03) are acting as a drag on the Nasdaq 100 (+0.1%).

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Metals and oil prices rally in recent trade to new highs on the day as the dollar index loses steam
Earlier, metals were running without much movement in the dollar index
But in more recent trade, the dollar index pulled back some, which provided further price support to metals
Dec gold is now +0.8% at $1171.20/oz, Dec silver +1.5 at $15.86/oz and Dec copper is +1.6% at $3.04/lb
Dec crude oil has recovered nicely off of the overnight low of $73.25/barrel and is now +1.1% at $75.03/barrel
Dec natural gas is +0.7% at $4.01/MMBtu

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major indices sport slight losses through the first half hour of trading. It is perhaps to be expected given the run the market has had since mid-October; however, it would be remiss not to note that sellers haven't exactly stepped on the gas pedal.

The market's resilience to selling efforts of late has been one of its supportive influences as it continues to draw in buyers fearful of missing out on further rebound gains in what is a typically favorable seasonal period for the stock market.

At the moment, the early leadership groups are telecom services (+0.9%) and energy (+0.5%). Trailing on the downside are health care (-0.6%), utilities (-0.2%), and consumer staples (-0.3%).

Separately, the preliminary reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey for November rose to 89.4 from 86.9 in October. The Briefing.com consensus expected an improvement to 87.5. Business Inventories increased 0.3% in September while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.2%. This followed the prior month's increase of 0.1%, which was revised down from a previously reported 0.2% gain.

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] A somewhat flattish start for the major indices, yet strength in the energy sector (+0.5%) is providing some influential support that has stemmed broader selling interest.

The rebound in energy can be attributed to three factors: (1) M&A buzz following recent news that Halliburton (HAL 55.35, +1.56) and Baker Hughes (BHI 59.85, +1.13) are in merger discussions (2) a bump in oil prices (+0.8% to $74.82/bbl) and (3) some bargain hunting interest given the scope of recent losses.

The rest of the action is pretty non-descript as price moves are fairly limited at the moment.

9:17 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.30. The S&P futures are pointing to a slightly higher start for the cash market. Altogether, neither buyers nor sellers are showing much conviction at this juncture. The latter are perhaps fearful of missing out on further gains while the former are perhaps concerned that a pullback from an overextended posture is in order. It is basically a game of chicken right now to see which way the market turns and, importantly, why it turns (if it turns at all).

There has been a clear consolidation trade this week. After a 0.3% gain on Monday, the S&P 500 has gained just over a point (a point, not a percentage point) over the last three sessions.

8:58 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.30. S&P futures are little changed versus fair value.

Rumors of early elections and a possible delay in the consumption tax hike dropped the yen to 116.50, its weakest since October 2010.

In economic data:
China's new loans (CNY548 bln actual v. CNY615 bln expected) and M2 money supply (12.6% YoY actual v. 12.9% YoY expected) both fell short of expectations.
Hong Kong's GDP (2.7% YoY actual v. 2.0% YoY expected) outpaced estimates.
India's WPI Inflation cooled to 1.77% YoY (2.38% YoY previous), its lowest since 2009.

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Japan's Nikkei (+0.6%) gained for a fourth straight day and finished at its best level in seven years. The weaker yen benefited exporters like Canon and Toyota Motor, which added 1.1% and 0.6%, respectively.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0.3%) finished at a two-month high as shares gained for a fifth day. Heavyweight Tencent Holdings provided support, adding 1.9%.
China's Shanghai Composite (-0.3%) saw some light selling during the final day of trade before the connector program launch with Hong Kong.

Markets drift little changed across Europe.

Economic data was heavy:
Eurozone Flash GDP (0.2% QoQ actual v. 0.1% QoQ expected) outpaced estimates while Final CPI (0.4%) was in-line.
Germany's Preliminary GDP (0.1% QoQ) matched estimates.
France's Preliminary GDP (0.3% QoQ actual v. 0.1% expected) beat and Preliminary Nonfarm Payrolls (-0.2% QoQ actual v. 0.2% QoQ expected) missed.
Britain's construction output (1.8% MoM actual v. 3.7% MoM expected) data was the latest to miss estimates.

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Germany's DAX (-0.1%) holds small losses. Steelmaker Salzgitter is higher by 9.8% after receiving a couple tier 1 upgrades.
France's CAC (+0.2%) clings to small gains. Financials are bid with BNP Paribas and Societe Generale higher by 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively.
Britain's FTSE (-0.1%) is slightly in the red. Miners lead to the downside with Lonmin off 3.2%.

8:32 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.80. October retail sales increased 0.3% while the Briefing.com consensus expected an uptick of 0.3%. The prior month's reading was unchanged from -0.3%. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.3% while the consensus expected an increase of 0.2%.

Separately, export prices, excluding agriculture, declined 0.9% in October after decreasing 0.2% in the prior reading. Excluding oil, import prices declined 0.2%,which followed last month's 0.1% downtick.

8:05 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.50. The S&P futures are trading just below fair value, which is setting the stage for a soft start for the cash market. Attention will soon turn to the October Retail Sales report at the bottom of the hour to see if job gains and lower gasoline prices did in fact drive a nice pickup in consumer spending. Overall, the stock market has continued to demonstrate impressive resilience to selling efforts. Some better than feared GDP readings out of the eurozone are lending a measure of support this morning, but paradoxically, they seem to be weighing a bit on European bourses as investors there contemplate the idea that the ECB might refrain from adding more policy stimulus.

The Retail Sales report for October (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) and October Import/Export Prices will be released at 8:30 ET while the preliminary reading of the November Michigan Sentiment Index (consensus 87.5) and the September Business Inventories report (expected 0.2%) will cross the wires at 9:55 ET and 10:00 ET, respectively.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Applied Materials (AMAT 22.62): Reports Q4 (Oct) earnings of $0.27 per share, in-line with estimates, but issued downside guidance for Q1, saying it sees EPS of $0.25-0.29, which is below analysts' average estimate. Q1 revenues are expected to be flat to +5%, or roughly $2.26-2.373 bln.
Nordstrom (JWN 73.25): Reports Q3 (Oct) earnings of $0.73 per share, slightly ahead of expectations. Revenues rose 5.4% year/year to $3.04 bln. Company issued mixed guidance for FY15, saying it sees EPS of $3.70-3.75 (lowered from $3.80-3.90 after Trunk Club acquisition) and FY15 revenue growth of +7.5% (~$13.08 bln, raised from previous guidance of +6.5-7.5%).
Movado (MOV 38.51): Company issues downside guidance for Q3 (Oct), saying it sees EPS of 0.86-0.87 on revenues of $188.6 mln. Both are well below analysts' expectations. Company also issued downside guidance for FY15 (Jan) that is also well below average estimates, saying it sees EPS of $1.80-1.85 on revenues of $585-590 mln. Movado said the overall watch category is experiencing slower growth.
Dow Chemical (DOW 49.96): Responded to Third Point statement, saying it fundamentally disagrees with the position outlined by Third Point

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mixed. Japan's Nikkei +0.6%; Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.3%; China's Shanghai Composite -0.3%; and South Korea's KOSPI -0.8%.
In economic data:
Hong Kong's GDP rose 1.7% quarter-over-quarter (prior -0.1%) while the year-over-year reading increased 2.7% (consensus 2.0%; previous 1.8%)
India's Wholesale Price Index rose 1.77% (consensus 2.27%; prior 2.38%)
Singapore's Retail Sales declined 0.4% month-over-month (expected -1.9%; last 5.3%) while the year-over-year reading increased 5.5% (consensus 4.1%; prior 5.4%)
In news:
Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect set to launch on Monday
G20 Summit being held in Brisbane, Australia over the weekend

Major European indices are modestly lower. Germany's DAX Index -0.3%; UK's FTSE 100 -0.2%; France's CAC 40 -0.1%; and Spain's IBEX 35 -0.2%
Participants received several data points:
Eurozone Q3 GDP rose 0.2% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.1%; previous 0.1%) while the year-over-year reading increased 0.8% (consensus 0.7%; last 0.8%). Separately, CPI rose 0.4% year-over-year (expected 0.4%; previous 0.4%) and Core CPI came in at 0.7% year-over-year (consensus 0.7%; prior 0.8%)
Germany's Q3 GDP rose 0.1% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.1%; last -0.1%) while the year-over-year reading increased 1.2% (consensus 1.0%; prior 1.0%)
French Q3 GDP rose 0.3% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.1%; previous 0.0%)
Italy's Q3 GDP declined 0.1% quarter-over-quarter (expected -0.1%; last -0.2%) while the year-over-year reading decreased 0.4% (consensus -0.4%; prior -0.2%)
Among news of note:
In conjunction with outlining new long-term targets, Nokia (NOK) said it expects Nokia Networks' net sales to grow on a year-over-year basis for the full year 2015 and Nokia Group capital expenditures to be approximately EUR 200 million in 2015

6:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat.

6:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...17,490.83...+98.00...+0.60%. Hang Seng...24,087.38...+67.40...+0.30%.

6:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6,623.21...-12.20...-0.20%. DAX...9,222.51...-28.80...-0.30%.

Gold Futures Post Biggest Two-Day Rally Since June

By Debarati Roy Nov 14, 2014 3:32 PM ET

Gold futures jumped, capping the biggest two-day gain since June, as an oil rally damped concern that inflation will remain low and revived demand for the metal as a store of wealth. Silver surged the most in nine months.

Aggregate gold trading more than doubled compared with the 100-day average for this time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Today, an option wager on a price rebound to $1,200 an ounce surged as much as fivefold, while Brent crude jumped as much as 2.9 percent.

Oil tumbled into a bear market last month, and Federal Reserve officials warned that lower energy costs may hold down consumer costs in the near term. Crude’s slump is increasing the likelihood that producers will curb output, helping to stabilize prices. Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said today that inflation expectations have rebounded since October.

“The spike in oil prices acted as a catalyst,” David Meger, the director of metals trading at Vision Financial Markets in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “There was a lot of fund buying.”

Gold futures for December delivery rose 2.1 percent to settle at $1,185.60 at 1:38 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Earlier, the price reached $1,192.90, the highest for a most-active contract since Oct. 31. In two days, the price climbed 2.3 percent, the most since June 20.

Total volume rose to an estimated 315,276 contracts, the seventh time this year trading topped 300,000. Yesterday, aggregate open interest climbed to the highest since May 22, 2013.

Technical ‘Momentum’

More than 10,000 contracts for December delivery traded around 10:06 a.m., with prices jumping about 1.5 percent within six minutes and erasing earlier declines. Today’s session low was $1,146 at 8:35 a.m.

“A lot of buy stops were triggered at $1,167.40, and that brought in the upward momentum,” Phil Streible, a senior commodity broker at R.J. O’Brien & Associates in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Today’s run-up was largely technical, and a few investors bought gold after oil prices showed some strength.”

OPEC ministers have stepped up their diplomatic visits before the group’s Nov. 27 meeting, potentially seeking a consensus on how to react to oil prices that have plunged to a four-year low. Gold reached a five-year low of $1,130.40 on Nov. 7 as energy prices tumbled and U.S. equities climbed to a record.

Forward Rates

The one-, two-, three- and six-month gold forward offered rates have turned negative, which is a sign of increased physical demand, Ade Odunsi, a portfolio manager at New York-based Treesdale Partners LLC, said in a telephone interview. A form of backwardation, when earlier prices are more expensive than for later dates, the negative rate signals that dealers are paid to lend metal against cash, rather than paying for the privilege.

A call option on gold, giving owners right to buy Dec. futures at $1,200, reached $12.50 after closing at an all-time low of $2.20 yesterday. Trading was an estimated 2,213 contracts, the second-most active option.

Silver futures for December delivery surged 4.4 percent to $16.314 an ounce, the biggest gain since Feb. 14. Earlier, the price fell as much as 2.4 percent. Trading doubled compared with the 100-day average, according to Bloomberg data.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, platinum futures for January delivery rose 1.2 percent to $1,213.10 an ounce. Earlier, the price touched $1,177.50, the lowest since July 30, 2009.

Palladium futures for December delivery rose 0.1 percent to $771.35 an ounce.

This year, platinum has dropped 12 percent, while palladium climbed 7.4 percent. Gold has fallen 1.4 percent and silver has tumbled 16 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Debarati Roy in New York at droy5@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Millie Munshi at mmunshi@bloomberg.net Patrick McKiernan

Dollar Rises as Oil Rebounds, Stocks Fluctuate Amid Data

By Stephen Kirkland and Oliver Renick Nov 14, 2014 4:05 PM ET

The dollar strengthened to a seven-year high against the yen while oil rebounded from the lowest levels since 2010. U.S. stocks ended little changed while Treasuries rose.

The dollar appreciated 0.4 percent to 116.28 yen at 4 p.m. in New York. The yield on 10-year Treasuries dropped two basis points to 2.32 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose less than 0.1 percent and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.1 percent. The ruble headed for its 10th weekly decline. Brent crude rose for the first time in a week.

Retail sales increased in October as American consumers ate out and shopped for clothes, enjoying a windfall from cheaper gasoline. The euro-area economy grew faster than analysts forecast in the third quarter as Germany and France rebounded and Greece showed some signs of revival. China said it will waive capital-gains taxes for foreign investors and mainland individuals using the Shanghai-Hong Kong bourse link.

“As we move closer to the end of the year people are looking for a holiday rally and may be asking if it’s happened already,” Robert Pavlik, who helps oversee $4.5 billion as chief market strategist at Banyan Partners LLC in New York, said by phone. “The small retail beat isn’t going to do it. We’re going to see a little pause. We can’t continue to climb up this ladder forever.”

U.S. retail sales in October increased 0.3 percent after a 0.3 percent drop in September. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 86 economists projected a 0.2 percent advance. Eleven of 13 major categories showed gains, indicating broad-based growth.

Consumer Sentiment

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary November index of consumer sentiment increased to 89.4 from 86.9 a month earlier. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey of 71 economists called for a reading of 87.5.

The S&P 500 rallied 9.5 percent from a six-month low in October to a record on Nov. 11 as better-than-estimated corporate earnings and economic data boosted confidence the U.S. economy can withstand a global slowdown as the Federal Reserve ended its bond-buying program.

The world economy is in its worst shape in two years, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll of investors, with the euro area and emerging markets deteriorating and the danger of deflation rising.

A plurality of 38 percent of those surveyed this week described the global economy as worsening, more than double the number who said that in the last poll in July and the most since September 2012, when Europe was mired in a recession.

Much of the concern is again focused on the euro area: Almost two-thirds of those polled said its economy was weakening while 89 percent saw disinflation or deflation as a greater threat there than inflation over the next year.

ECB Stimulus

With inflation close to the lowest level in five years, the European Central Bank is preparing to add to unprecedented stimulus and urged governments to invest and deliver structural reforms to support growth.

Data today showed Germany and France, the euro area’s two largest economies, returned to growth in the third quarter, with expansions of 0.1 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 of its most-traded peers, fell 0.2 percent, reversing an earlier gain.

The yen capped a fourth week of losses as debate about an increase in the sales tax became the latest factor to weaken the currency.

Japan Tax

Japan’s prime minister Shinzo Abe will hold a news conference next week to announce a delay in the sales-tax increase, Mainichi newspaper reported, without saying who provided the information. Abe will also explain the reasons for his decision to dissolve parliament at the news conference, according to the report.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 0.2 percent, sending the gauge toward a 0.4 percent gain for the week. Brazil’s Ibovespa slid 0.1 percent, extending yesterday’s 2.1 percent drop.

The ruble weakened 0.8 percent to 47.1476 per dollar, extending its decline for the five-day period to 1 percent. Russia’s currency has dropped for 10 weeks, the longest slump since 2005.

Credit-default swaps insuring Russian government debt rose 13 basis points to 295 basis points, the highest since November 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The contracts have increased for all but one of the past 11 days, the data show.

OPEC Output

Brent crude climbed 2.5 percent to $79.41 amid speculation that the drop in prices below $80 a barrel increases the likelihood that OPEC will cut production. West Texas Intermediate added 2.2 percent to $75.82.

OPEC producers have stepped up their diplomatic visits before the group’s meeting in two weeks, potentially seeking a consensus on how to react to oil prices that have plunged to a four-year low. Prices could slide further in the coming months as the market enters a period of weaker demand, the International Energy Agency said today.

Futures on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 1.4 percent after the official close of Hong Kong’s stock exchange and contracts on the Hang Seng Index climbed 0.9 percent, ahead of the start of the Hong Kong-Shanghai trading link next week.

Chinese individuals who buy Hong Kong equities through the link get a three-year exemption, while mainland companies using the connect will be charged tax, the Ministry of Finance said in a statement today, clarifying its rules three days before the program’s debut.

China is counting on demand from foreign money managers to boost equity valuations, turn Shanghai into a global financial center and increase global use of the yuan. Tax policy was one of several market-structure shortcomings, including capital controls and rules against same-day trading, cited by investors when MSCI gathered views on mainland shares for its June index decision.

To contact the reporters on this story: Stephen Kirkland in London at skirkland@bloomberg.net; Oliver Renick in New York at orenick2@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeff Sutherland at jsutherlan13@bloomberg.net Jeremy Herron

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader @ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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