TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $1,480.00 dollars or +14.80 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +00.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $1,480.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=136&t=1934


Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=250&t=2561

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

4:10 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages settled near the middle of their ranges after sliding from early highs. The S&P 500 gained a point while the Russell 2000 (-0.9%) underperformed throughout the trading day.

Equity indices started the day on an upbeat note with the S&P 500 rising into fresh record territory with help from three sectors that represent roughly 40% of the market. To that point, consumer discretionary (+0.6%), consumer staples (+0.5%), and technology (+0.6%) rallied at the start and displayed relative strength throughout the day.

However, the strength in the influential trio was not enough to keep the benchmark index near its high with the energy sector (-1.4%) acting as a big drag. The sector, and crude oil, spent the day in a steady retreat after China's Industrial Production growth slowed to 7.7% (expected 8.0%) and the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters lowered the region's 2014 harmonized inflation outlook to 0.5% from 0.7% and cut the 2015 forecast to 1.0% from 1.2%. Crude plunged 3.9% at $74.17/bbl after a daylong retreat that was capped with a $1.33 straight-line dive from the $75.50 level.

As for the energy sector, the group cut its loss in half in reaction to afternoon reports indicating Halliburton (HAL 53.79, +0.56) is in talks to buy Baker Hughes (BHI 58.75, +7.77). Baker Hughes surged 15.2%. The weakness in energy did not stop the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.2%) from registering a modest gain since the index contains just two members of the energy sector. Chevron (CVX 116.45, -1.20) and ExxonMobil (XOM 94.66, -0.72) lost 1.0% and 0.8%, respectively. Outside of the two names, Caterpillar (CAT 101.11, -1.88), which relies heavily on China, was the only other laggard of note within the Dow. Shares of CAT ended lower by 1.9%.

On the upside, the consumer discretionary sector received support from media names after the House Energy and Commerce Committee told the Federal Communications Commission that reclassifying the internet as a utility is outside of its authority. Time Warner Cable (TWC 141.05, +4.57) climbed 3.4% to underpin the sector after Comcast (CMCSA 54.30, +0.70) said its merger with TWC remains on track.

Meanwhile, the other consumer sector-staples-spent the day in the green thanks to a better than expected report from Wal-Mart (WMT 82.94, +3.74). The bottom-line beat overshadowed the company's guidance for flat comparable store sales in Q4.

Elsewhere, the technology sector advanced amid gains in top-weighted components. Apple (AAPL 112.82, +1.57), Intel (INTC 33.68, +0.30), and Microsoft (MSFT 49.61, +0.83) added between 0.9% and 1.7% while Cisco Systems (CSCO 25.68, +0.57) jumped 2.3% after beating earnings estimates on light guidance.

Treasuries climbed throughout the day, but backed away from highs into the close. The 10-yr yield fell three basis points to 2.35%.

Participation was a bit below long-term average as 690 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data included Initial Claims, JOLTs, and the Treasury Budget:

The initial claims level increased to 290,000 from an unrevised 278,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 280,000
The Department of Labor said there were no special factors influencing the report
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September indicated job opening decreased to 4.735 million from 4.853 million
The Treasury Budget for October showed a deficit of $121.70 billion, which followed the prior deficit of $90.60 billion while the Briefing.com consensus expected the deficit to hit $122.00 billion

Tomorrow, the Retail Sales report for October (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) and October Import/Export Prices will be released at 8:30 ET while the preliminary reading of the November Michigan Sentiment Index (consensus 87.5) and the September Business Inventories report (expected 0.2%) will cross the wires at 9:55 ET and 10:00 ET, respectively.

Nasdaq Composite +12.1% YTD
S&P 500 +10.3% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +6.5% YTD
Russell 2000 +1.1% YTD

3:40 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Crude broke down hard today, down sharply even after crude oil inventories showed a draw -1.735 mln vs consensus for a build of 0.7 mln.
The move is highly technical, breaking below what was an important level of support at $75/barrel.
Over the past three years, futures have tested, but not broken through that level three times. This big leg lower comes ahead of the Nov 27 OPEC meeting.
Natural gas is also tumbling, filling the the 11/3 gap higher and breaking an important level of support at $4. There is a potential support level at its 50 DMA, right around 3.95. On the intraday chart, you can see the move lower started this morning, and has continued falling from there, hitting a LoD of 3.971 just after settlement. The move comes ahead of tomorrow's inventory data due out at 10:30 ET.

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.1% with one hour remaining in the session. Commodities and commodity-related sectors have been in focus today as crude oil ($74.41/bbl, -2.77) has spent the day in a steady retreat. That weakness has led to a significant loss in the energy sector (-2.3%), but the benchmark index has been able to resist some of the selling pressure.

The choppy session has caused participants to hedge their exposure, as evidenced by a 7.5% advance in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 13.99, +0.97).

Similarly, Treasuries are on their highs with the 10-yr yield down four basis points at 2.34%.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.3%) has been pressured back to its session low by another leg down in crude oil. The energy component is now down 3.4% at $74.51/bbl while the energy sector has extended its decline to 2.7%.

The continued weakness has kept industrials (-0.5%) and materials (-0.4%) under pressure, but consumer discretionary (+0.3%), technology (+0.3%), and consumer staples (+0.2%) continue showing relative strength. Even though the three groups remain in the green, it is worth noting that they all trade in the neighborhood of their lows.

Also of note, Treasuries have charged to new highs with the 10-yr yield at 2.34% (-4 bps).

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.2% with six sectors holding losses.

Just released, the Treasury Budget for October showed a deficit of $121.70 billion, which followed the prior deficit of $90.60 billion. The Briefing.com consensus expected the deficit to hit $122.00 billion.

1:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major indices are showing modest losses, which belies the fact that they were showing sizable gains earlier. A recent dip in the market is being attributed to cautious guidance from UPS (UPS 107.26, -0.69) at an investment conference. Specifically, UPS said its sees FY15 EPS of $5.45 to $5.70, which is below analysts' average estimate.

The biggest drag today, however, has been the energy sector (-2.0%). It continues to slide along with oil prices, which dropped below $76.00/bbl and are making their way toward the $75.00/bbl mark (currently $75.40).

In general, the market's pullback from earlier highs shouldn't be seen as a surprise. It is overextended on a short-term basis (up 12.4% at its high today from October 15 low) and due for a pullback.

Separately, the Treasury market has been whipped around today. It is currently in an upswing with stocks pulling back. On a related note, the $16 bln 30-yr bond auction drew a high yield of 3.092% on a weak 2.29 bid-to-cover ratio that trailed the prior 12-auction average of 2.42.

12:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages hover near their flat lines at midday after slipping from their early highs. The S&P 500 trades within a point of its unchanged level with four sectors in the green.

Equity indices climbed at the start of the session with leadership from heavily-weighted consumer staples (+0.3%), consumer discretionary (+0.7%), and technology (+0.7%) sectors. However, the key averages were pressured from their highs by significant weakness in the energy space (-2.0%).

The energy sector has retreated since the opening bell alongside crude oil ($75.22/bbl, -1.98), which began its decline overnight after China reported a slowdown in Industrial Production (7.7%; expected 8.0%). Furthermore, the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters lowered the region's 2014 harmonized inflation outlook to 0.5% from 0.7% and cut the 2015 forecast to 1.0% from 1.2%. Brent crude ($78.24/bbl, -2.88) trades lower by 3.6% while WTI crude has given up 2.5%.

Although energy pressured the market from highs, the S&P 500 has been able to stay out of the red thanks to continued strength in three sectors. The discretionary space leads amid strength in media names after the House Energy and Commerce Committee told the Federal Communications Commission that reclassifying the internet as a utility is outside of its authority. In addition, Time Warner Cable (TWC 141.24, +4.76) is higher by 3.5% after Comcast (CMCSA 54.44, +0.84) said it is moving ahead with its merger with TWC.

Elsewhere, the staples sector has received strong support from Wal-Mart (WMT 82.63, +3.42). The Dow component has spiked 4.3% after beating bottom-line estimates and guiding for flat comparable store sales in Q4.

Also of note, the top-weighted technology sector has rallied behind its top component and chipmakers. Apple (AAPL 113.05, +1.80) sports an advance of 1.6% while the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+0.5%) outperforms with help from Broadcom (BRCM 42.25, +1.10) and SanDisk (SNDK 95.44, +2.61) after Goldman upgraded both names to 'Buy.'

Treasuries hold gains, but are off their highs with the 10-yr yield lower by two basis points at 2.35%.

Economic data included initial claims and JOLTs:

The initial claims level increased to 290,000 from an unrevised 278,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 280,000
The Department of Labor said there were no special factors influencing the report
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September indicated job opening decreased to 4.735 million from 4.853 million

The Treasury Budget for October will be released at 14:00 ET.

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 hovers near its flat line while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.3%) outperforms.

The price-weighted index has been able to stay ahead of the benchmark average considering the Dow contains just two members of the energy sector. Chevron (CVX 116.40, -1.25) and ExxonMobil (XOM 94.38, -1.00) are both down near 1.0% while only one other index member has given up close to 1.0%. Manufacturer of heavy machinery, Caterpillar (CAT 101.70, -1.29), trades down 1.3%.

On the upside, Wal-Mart (WMT 82.51, +3.31) has jumped 4.2% in reaction to its bottom-line beat. Cisco Systems (CSCO 25.68, +0.57) and Microsoft (MSFT 49.49, +0.71) also hold solid gains, but they are among the smallest index components.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain pressured with the energy sector (-1.7%) leading to the downside. The sector has retreated since the start with crude showing overnight weakness after China reported a slowdown in its Industrial Production (7.7%; expected 8.0%). In addition, a lower inflation forecast for the Eurozone from ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters has also played a part in the retreat.

The energy sector has been a big laggard ever since sliding from its 2014 high that was reached near the end of June. The group held up relatively well until the end of August, but selling accelerated in September and persisted until a mid-October rebound that involved the entire market. However, the sector has had a volatile start to November and is currently down 3.1% for the month. The sector sits at the bottom of the 2014 leaderboard with a year-to-date loss of 4.6%.

11:25 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have slumped from highs with the S&P 500 narrowing its advance to 0.1%. The index surrendered five points in short order amid continued weakness in the energy sector (-1.7%). The growth-sensitive group has been sliding since the start of the session with crude oil also heading lower. WTI crude has extended its loss to 2.2% ($75.46/bbl) while Brent crude is now lower by 2.6% at $79.01/bbl.

The energy sector has caused most other groups to pull back from their highs, but consumer discretionary (+0.7%) and technology (+0.6%) continue holding solid gains. The two leading sectors deserve close attention considering a reversal would have the potential to invite more aggressive selling. The technology sector is the largest S&P 500 group by weight while the discretionary sector is the fourth-largest sector. Meanwhile, the second and third-largest sectors-health care and financials-are little changed.

Treasuries remain in the green with the 10-yr yield down two basis points at 2.35%.

10:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equities have continued inching higher with the Nasdaq Composite extending its gain to 0.6%.

The tech-heavy index has shown strength from the opening bell with large cap components fueling the advance. Apple (AAPL 113.25, +2.00) trades up 1.8% and Cisco Systems (CSCO 25.78, +0.67) is higher by 2.7% after erasing its pre-market loss. The company reported a slim beat, but issued cautious guidance.

Chipmakers have also gotten in on the fun with the PHLX Semiconductor Index trading higher by 0.9%. Broadcom (BRCM 42.39, +1.24) and SanDisk (SNDK 95.57, +2.74) are among the leaders with gains close to 3.0% apiece after Goldman Sachs upgraded both names to 'Buy.'

10:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Crude oil prices tanked this morning with Dec WTI crude oil falling as low as $75.41/barrel
Dec crude oil is now -1.9% at $75.71/barrel
Dec nat gas is down as well, currently -1.7% at $4.12/MMBtu
The dollar index is trading 0.2% lower at 87.66, which is helping give a boost to precious metals
Dec gold is currently +0.2% at $1160.90/oz, Dec silver +0.1% at $15.64/oz

10:05 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.3% while the Nasdaq (+0.4%) remains in the lead. Eight sectors continue holding gains after utilities (-0.4%) joined the energy sector (-1.0%) in the red.

Just released, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September indicated job opening decreased to 4.735 million from 4.853 million.

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages climbed out of the gate with the Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%) showing relative strength in the early going. The S&P 500 (+0.2%) follows not far behind with nine sectors showing early gains.

Yesterday's biggest laggard-utilities (+0.6%)-began the session in the lead while the consumer discretionary sector (+0.5%) follows not far behind. Elsewhere among cyclical groups, technology (+0.4%) and materials (+0.4%) trade ahead of the broader market while energy (-0.7%) and industrials (+0.1%) lag.

The energy sector displays notable weakness amid continued selling pressure in crude oil. The energy component is lower by 1.3% at $76.21/bbl.

Treasuries remain near their highs with the 10-yr yield lower by two basis points at 2.36%.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will be released at 10:00 ET.

9:16 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.00. The stock market is on track for a slightly higher open as futures on the S&P 500 hover two points above fair value.

Index futures held modest gains during overnight action, but have slid from highs alongside equities in Europe. The overseas retreat saw significant weakness among energy names as crude oil fell to lows. WTI crude trades down 1.3% at $76.20/bbl while Brent crude hovers at $79.15/bbl after giving up 2.4%.

Oil prices have not been helped by China's disappointing Industrial Production figures (7.7%; expected 8.0%) or the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters, which lowered the 2014 harmonized inflation outlook to 0.5% from 0.7% and also cut the 2015 forecast to 1.0% from 1.2%.

Domestically, investors have been responding to a modest dose of quarterly earnings. Cisco Systems (CSCO 24.88, -0.23) is on track to open lower by 0.9% after cautious guidance overshadowed its slim beat. On the upside, Wal-Mart (WMT 80.83, +1.63) holds a pre-market gain of 2.1% after beating bottom-line estimates and guiding for flat comparable store sales in Q4.

Treasuries have climbed to highs over the past hour, pressuring the 10-yr yield to 2.36% (-2 bps).

On the economic front, weekly Initial Claims increased to 290,000 from 278,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 280,000. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will be released at 10:00 ET and the Treasury Budget for October will cross the wires at 14:00 ET.

8:59 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.00. The S&P 500 futures trade two points above fair value.

Markets finished mixed across Asia. Confusion reigned in Japan amid talk of early elections and a possible delay in the consumption tax hike. Elsewhere, Bank of Korea held its key rate at 2.00%, as expected, and Bank Indonesia unexpectedly held its benchmark rate at 7.50% (7.75% expected).

In economic data:
China's Retail Sales rose 11.5% year-over-year (expected 11.6%; previous 11.6%), Industrial Production rose 7.7% (consensus 8.0%; prior 8.0%), and Fixed Asset Investment increased 15.9% year-over-year, as expected (last 16.1%)
Japan's Industrial Production increased 2.9% month-over-month (expected 2.7%; prior 2.7%), Core Machinery Orders jumped 7.3% year-over-year (consensus -1.3%; previous -3.3%), and Reuters Tankan Index improved to 13 from 8. Separately, CGPI slipped 0.8% month-over-month (consensus -0.4%, last -0.1%) while the year-over-year reading increased 2.9% (expected 3.3%; last 3.5%)
Australia's MI Inflation Expectations increased to 4.1% from 3.4%
New Zealand's Business NZ PMI rose to 59.3 from 58.5

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Japan's Nikkei surged 1.1% to its best levels since October 2007. Heavyweights Fast Retailing and Softbank provided support, rising 1.9% and 2.9%, respectively.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.3% to register its fourth day of gains. Financials were among the top performers with Industrial & Commercial Bank of China adding 1.2%.
China's Shanghai Composite lost 0.4%, slipping from three-year highs. Real Estate developers weighed as Poly Real Estate gave up 1.5%.
India's Sensex shed 0.2%, but held near all-time highs. Automakers gave back some of yesterday's gains as Hero MotoCorp lost 1.3% and Tata Motors fell 1.0%.

Major European indices have slipped from their highs and they now trade mostly lower. Italy's MIB (-0.6%) is pacing the slide amid weakness in financials. The European Central Bank released its Survey of Professional Forecasters, which lowered the inflation outlook for the region. According to the survey, harmonized inflation is expected to average 0.5% this year (from 0.7%), 1.0% in 2015 (from 1.2%), and 1.4% in 2016 (from 1.5%)

Participants received several data points:
Germany's CPI slipped 0.3% month-over-month while the year-over-year reading increased 0.8%. Both figures matched expectations
French CPI was unchanged month-over-month (consensus -0.1%; prior -0.4%) while the Current Account deficit narrowed to EUR1.20 billion from EUR3.70 billion (expected deficit of EUR3.70 billion)
Spain's CPI rose 0.5% month-over-month while the year-over-year reading ticked down 0.1%. Both were in-line with estimates
Italy's CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month and the year-over-year reading also increased 0.1%, as expected
Swiss PPI slipped 0.1% month-over-month (expected -0.2%; last -0.1%) while the year-over-year reading fell 1.1% (consensus -1.3%; prior -1.4%)

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Germany's DAX is higher by 0.1%. Utilities E.On and RWE are the two weakest performers, down 1.9% and 3.1%, respectively. On the upside, Adidas has added 3.1%.
Great Britain's FTSE is lower by 0.1% with energy names on the defensive. Royal Dutch Shell and Tullow Oil hold respective losses of 2.1% and 3.3%. Consumer names are showing strength with Carnival up 2.0% and WM Morrison Supermarkets higher by 1.7%.
In France, the CAC has given up 0.4%. Growth-sensitive names Bouygues, Total, and Vinci are down between 1.5% and 2.8%. Credit Agricole outperforms, trading higher by 1.2%.
Italy's MIB underperforms with a loss of 0.6%. Banco Popolare, Intesa Sanpaolo, and Unicredit hold losses between 1.5% and 2.2%. Oil company Saipem also weighs, trading lower by 3.5%.

8:32 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.00. The S&P 500 futures trade two points above fair value.

The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 290,000, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 280,000. Today's tally was above the unrevised prior week count of 278,000. As for continuing claims, they rose to 2.392 million from 2.356 million.

7:59 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.50. U.S. equity futures trade modestly higher amid upbeat action overseas. The S&P 500 futures hover five points above fair value after spiking overnight. However, futures have ticked down from their highs and currently trade in the middle of their range.

Treasuries hold slim losses with the 10-yr yield down one basis point at 2.36%.

Weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 280K) will be released at 8:30 ET while the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will be reported at 10:00 ET. The day's data will be topped off with the 14:00 ET release of the Treasury Budget for October.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Cisco Systems (CSCO 24.62, -0.49): -2.0% after cautious guidance overshadowed its slim beat.
Dreamworks Animation (DWA 28.00, +5.63): +25.2% amid reports Hasbro (HAS 57.00, -0.47) is in discussions to buy the company.
J.C. Penney (JCP 7.25, -0.51): -6.6% after beating bottom-line estimates on light revenue. The company made some cautious comments about the upcoming quarter.
Rocket Fuel (FUEL 19.00, +2.77): +17.1% in reaction to better than expected results and upbeat guidance.
Wal-Mart (WMT 80.70, +1.50): +1.9% after beating bottom-line estimates and guiding for flat comparable store sales in Q4.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mixed. Japan's Nikkei +1.1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.3%, and China's Shanghai Composite -0.4%
In economic data:
China's Retail Sales rose 11.5% year-over-year (expected 11.6%; previous 11.6%), Industrial Production rose 7.7% (consensus 8.0%; prior 8.0%), and Fixed Asset Investment increased 15.9% year-over-year, as expected (last 16.1%)
Japan's Industrial Production increased 2.9% month-over-month (expected 2.7%; prior 2.7%), Core Machinery Orders jumped 7.3% year-over-year (consensus -1.3%; previous -3.3%), and Reuters Tankan Index improved to 13 from 8. Separately, CGPI slipped 0.8% month-over-month (consensus -0.4%, last -0.1%) while the year-over-year reading increased 2.9% (expected 3.3%; last 3.5%)
Australia's MI Inflation Expectations increased to 4.1% from 3.4%
New Zealand's Business NZ PMI rose to 59.3 from 58.5
In news:
The Reserve Bank of Korea left its key interest rate at 2.0%, as expected. Governor Lee Ju-yeol commented on the foreign exchange market, saying a fast-paced slide in the yen would invite some concern

Major European indices trade mostly higher. Great Britain's FTSE +0.1%, France's CAC +0.2%, and Germany's DAX +0.7%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB -0.6% and Spain's IBEX -0.3%
Participants received several data points:
Germany's CPI slipped 0.3% month-over-month while the year-over-year reading increased 0.8%. Both figures matched expectations
French CPI was unchanged month-over-month (consensus -0.1%; prior -0.4%) while the Current Account deficit narrowed to EUR1.20 billion from EUR3.70 billion (expected deficit of EUR3.70 billion)
Spain's CPI rose 0.5% month-over-month while the year-over-year reading ticked down 0.1%. Both were in-line with estimates
Italy's CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month and the year-over-year reading also increased 0.1%, as expected
Swiss PPI slipped 0.1% month-over-month (expected -0.2%; last -0.1%) while the year-over-year reading fell 1.1% (consensus -1.3%; prior -1.4%)
Among news of note:
The European Central Bank released its Survey of Professional Forecasters, which lowered the inflation outlook for the region. According to the survey, harmonized inflation is expected to average 0.5% this year (from 0.7%), 1.0% in 2015 (from 1.2%), and 1.4% in 2016 (from 1.5%)

6:31 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...17,392.79...+195.70...+1.10%. Hang Seng...24,019.94...+81.80...+0.30%.

6:31 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6,633.73...+22.70...+0.30%. DAX...9,291.02...+80.70...+0.90%.

6:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +8.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.00.

Crude Oil Falls to 4-Year Low as OPEC Seen Resisting Cut

By Moming Zhou Nov 13, 2014 3:21 PM ET

West Texas Intermediate and Brent oil extended losses to the lowest in four years amid signs that OPEC remains unwilling to reduce output to ease a supply glut.

Speculation of a price war within OPEC “has no basis in reality,” Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said yesterday. Slumping oil prices reflect a growing consensus among traders and investors that OPEC will maintain output, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said. Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for U.S. oil futures, rose to the highest since May.

“There is a feeling of oversupply,” said Michael Hiley, head of energy OTC at LPS Partners Inc. in New York. “The Saudis haven’t said whether they are going to cut or not. There is a bearish feeling in the market and we got another wave of selling after the inventory numbers.”

WTI for December delivery declined $2.97, or 3.9 percent, to $74.21 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since Sept. 21, 2010. The volume of all futures was 46 percent above the 100-day average.

Brent for December settlement, which expires today, dropped $2.46, or 3.1 percent, to $77.92 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, the lowest level since Sept. 9, 2010. The more active January contract was down $3.63 at $77.49. Volume was 15 percent above the 100-day average.

Bear Market

Gasoline futures slumped 5 percent to $2.0016 a gallon on the Nymex, the lowest since September 2010. Regular retail gasoline averaged $2.917 a gallon nationwide yesterday, the lowest since December 2010, according to AAA.

Oil sank into a bear market last month as leading OPEC members resisted calls to cut production and instead reduced export prices to the U.S., where output has climbed to the highest level in more than three decades. Venezuela, Libya and Ecuador have asked for action to prevent crude from falling farther. The group is scheduled to meet Nov. 27 in Vienna.

“Saudi oil policy has remained constant for the past few decades and it has not changed today,” Al-Naimi said at a conference in Acapulco, Mexico, in his first public comments since crude plunged into a bear market. “We want stable oil markets and steady prices, because this is good for producers, consumers and investors.”

Saudi Arabia’s production slid 69,900 barrels a day to a seven-month low of 9.603 million in October, OPEC said in its monthly report yesterday. The 12-member group, which supplies about 40 percent of the world’s oil, pumped 30.253 million barrels a day, OPEC said, citing data based on estimates from sources including analysts and media organizations. That exceeds its collective target of 30 million set in January 2012.

OPEC Meeting

“People recognize that you’re unlikely to see a cut in this Nov. 27 OPEC meeting,” and that’s pushed prices lower in the last several days, Jeff Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, said today in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move” with Jonathan Ferro. “When we look at U.S. shale production, it is continuing to surprise to the upside.”

Crude supplies at Cushing climbed 1.7 million barrels to 22.5 million last week, the Energy Information Administration said. U.S. crude stockpiles decreased 1.74 million barrels, according to the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm.

Gasoline inventories rose 1.81 million to 203.6 million. Distillates dropped 2.8 million to 116.9 million, the lowest since May. U.S. refineries operated at 90.1 percent of their capacity, up from 88.4 percent the previous week.

“The market is looking for any signs of OPEC production cuts but it doesn’t look like Naimi is in a hurry to do that,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago. “The market is just testing OPEC’s resolve. It’s full speed ahead until something changes.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Moming Zhou in New York at mzhou29@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: David Marino at dmarino4@bloomberg.net Stephen Cunningham, Charlotte Porter

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader @ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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