TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $720.00 dollars or +7.20 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $720.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=133&t=1865


Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=244&t=2455

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

Yahoo! Finance

4:10 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market began the new trading week on an upbeat note with small caps leading the charge. The Russell 2000 gained 1.5%, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.9% with eight sectors posting gains.

Equity indices surged out of the gate and spent the entire afternoon in narrow ranges near their highs. Although the Russell 2000 paced the rally, the small-cap index could not climb above its 50-day moving average (1159), which served as resistance.

The opening push took place after the reports that weighed on risk sentiment on Friday were refuted over the course of the weekend. To recap, comments made by Ukrainian officials on Friday suggested that a direct confrontation took place between Russian forces and Ukrainian troops, but those accounts were called into question by several parties, including the White House.

In addition to boosting equities, the news weighed on safe-haven assets. The 10-yr note spent the day in a steady retreat, which pushed its yield up five basis points to 2.39%. Similarly, Germany's 10-yr note retreated, which sent its yield back above the 1.0% mark to 1.01%.

Cyclical sectors displayed broad strength as five of six growth-oriented groups finished ahead of the broader market. The industrial sector (+1.5%) seized the lead in the early going and held on until the close with help from transport stocks. The Dow Jones Transportation Average jumped 1.7% to extend its August gain to 3.2%. Airlines led with United Continental (UAL 47.84, +1.83) climbing 4.0%.

Elsewhere, the top-weighted sector-technology (+1.1%)-also finished ahead of the S&P 500 even as chipmakers were unable to keep pace after Goldman Sachs downgraded the entire semiconductor space. The PHLX Semiconductor Index was limited to a modest gain of 0.5%. However, large cap components picked up the slack with the likes of Apple (AAPL 99.16, +1.18) and Google (GOOGL 592.70, +8.99) ending higher by 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively.

Also of note, the consumer discretionary sector (+0.9%) benefitted from M&A activity as Dollar General (DG 64.14, +6.68) offered to acquire Family Dollar (FDO 79.81, +3.75) for $78.50/share, which represents a 3.2% premium to Friday's closing price.

Despite the broad strength, one cyclical group spun its wheels throughout the session. Specifically, the energy sector (+0.3%) ended near its flat line, while crude oil fell 0.9% to $97.31/bbl.

On the countercyclical side, telecom services (-0.1%) and utilities (-0.2%) registered slim losses, while consumer staples (+0.6%) and health care (+0.8%) finished a bit behind the broader market.

Participation was below average with fewer than 600 million shares changing hands at the NYSE.

Economic data was limited to the NAHB Housing Market Index for August, which rose to 55 from 53, while the Briefing.com consensus expected the reading to hold at 53.

Tomorrow, July CPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), July Housing Starts (consensus 964K), and Building Permits (consensus 1.001 million) will all be reported at 8:30 ET.

Nasdaq Composite +7.9% YTD
S&P 500 +6.7% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.6% YTD
Russell 2000 -0.5% YTD

3:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Crude oil traded in the red all day and fell below the $96 level, falling as low as $95.98/barrel.
Sept crude oil finished the day $0.88 lower at $97.31/barrel
Gold slid back below $1300/oz today, while silver climbed higher in afternoon trade
Dec gold ended $7.40 lower at $1299.20/oz, Sept silver closed $0.12 higher to $19.64/oz
Sept natural gas rose 2 cents to $3.79/MMBtu
Corn lost steam and fell as much as 10 cents off its HoD to end at $3.60/bushel, down 6 cents.

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equities continue holding solid gains with the session heading into the final hour of action. The S&P 500, which trades higher by 0.7%, has been trapped in a three-point range since about 10:45 ET.

Investors did not receive any noteworthy earnings this morning, but the retail sector will be in focus as the week progresses. Following today's closing bell, Urban Outfitters (URBN 36.84, +0.79) will report its results with the Capital IQ consensus calling for earnings of $0.49 versus $0.51 a year ago.

A modest batch of results will cross tomorrow morning with Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS 43.74, +0.77) and Home Depot (HD 83.67, -0.02) headlining the list.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain near their highs with the industrial sector (+1.4%) holding the lead.

Investors received just one economic data point this morning, but the NAHB Housing Market Index (55 versus Briefing.com consensus 53) did not generate a noteworthy reaction in the market. Similarly, the remainder of this week is expected to be relatively quiet on the economic front.

Tomorrow's data will be limited to July CPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%) and the July Housing Starts (consensus 964K)/Building Permits report (consensus 1.001 mln). All of the data will be released at 8:30 ET.

As the week continues, Wednesday will feature the minutes from the latest FOMC policy meeting.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain bid with the S&P 500 (+0.8%) trading within a point of its session high.

Not much has changed among individual sectors, but the health care space (+0.7%) has inched away from its best level of the session. However, the top-weighted technology sector (+1.1%) has picked up the slack, ticking up to a fresh high for the day. Chipmakers, meanwhile, continue underperforming with the PHLX Semiconductor Index up 0.3%.

Elsewhere among influential groups, consumer discretionary (+0.9%), financials (+1.0%), and industrials (+1.3%) remain ahead of the broader market.

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.8%) sits just below its session high, while the Nasdaq (+0.9%) and Russell 2000 (+1.3%) outperform.

Equities made the bulk of their move at the open and the S&P 500 has been locked in a two-point range since 10:45 ET. Similarly, the industrial sector (+1.3%) grabbed the lead early in the session and has not looked back. On the downside, the telecom services sector (-0.1%) has recently dipped into the red, while another countercyclical group-utilities-has returned to its flat line.

With stocks holding near their highs, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 12.47, -0.68) sits close to its session low as participants reduce their hedges.

12:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages hover near their highs at midday with small-cap stocks in the lead. The Russell 2000 is higher by 1.4%, while the S&P 500 trades up 0.8% with all ten sectors showing gains.

Equities jumped out of the gate after the reports that weighed on risk sentiment on Friday were refuted over the weekend. To recap, comments made by Ukrainian officials on Friday suggested that a direct military confrontation took place between Russian forces and Ukrainian troops; however, the remarks were called into question by several parties over the weekend, including the White House.

This latest twist gave an early boost to the key indices, which have built on their opening gains. Heavily-weighted groups are among today's leaders as consumer discretionary (+0.9%), financials (+1.1%), industrials (+1.4%), and technology (+0.9%) all trade ahead of the broader market.

Notably, the leading sector-industrials-has drawn strength from defense contractors and transport stocks. The PHLX Defense Index trades up 1.5%, while the Dow Jones Transportation Average is also higher by 1.5% with all 20 index members showing gains. Airlines lead with United Continental (UAL 47.40, +1.39) trading higher by 3.0%.

Elsewhere, the technology sector has been able to stay ahead of the broader market even as chipmakers lag in reaction to a Goldman Sachs downgrade of the entire sector. The PHLX Semiconductor Index hovers near its high with a slim gain of 0.2%.

Also of note, M&A activity has been in focus today with Dollar General (DG 63.00, +5.55) making an offer to acquire Family Dollar (FDO 79.85, +3.79) for $78.50/share, which represents a 3.2% premium to Friday's closing price.

Despite the broad-based strength, the energy sector (+0.2%) has been limited a slim gain as crude oil trades lower by 1.4% at $95.98/bbl.

Treasuries are on their lows with the 10-yr yield higher by four basis point at 2.38%.

Economic data was limited to the NAHB Housing Market Index for August, which rose to 55 from 53, while the Briefing.com consensus expected the reading to hold at 53.

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.8%) has inched up to a new high, while the Russell 2000 (+1.5%) continues showing relative strength.

The small-cap index has been able to stay ahead of the broader market through the first half of August. Including today's advance, the Russell 2000 is higher by 3.5% so far in August, while the S&P 500 has added 2.1% since the end of July.

Eight of ten sectors display August gains with consumer staples and industrials in the lead. The two sectors hold respective month-to-date gains of 3.8% and 3.3%. Only two sectors have retreated this month with energy and telecom services down 0.2% and 2.4%, respectively.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.8% as the quiet session continues.

On Friday, equity indices tumbled from their intraday highs after Ukrainian officials said that the country's army destroyed a Russian military convoy. Over the weekend, those reports were disputed by several parties including the White House, which has helped fuel a rebound in the market.

The bounce back effort has been supported by just about every influential sector, including the top-weighted technology (+0.9%). The sector has drawn strength from large cap components like Apple (AAPL 98.97, +0.99), Google (GOOGL 592.99, +9.28), and Facebook (FB 74.53, +0.90), while chipmakers have been unable to keep up after Goldman Sachs downgraded the entire sector to 'Cautious' from 'Neutral.' The PHLX Semiconductor Index holds a slim gain of 0.2%.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Not much change among the major averages as they remain near their best levels of the session.

The industrial sector (+1.4%) is a clear leader thanks to broad support from defense contractors and transport stocks. The PHLX Defense Index and the Dow Jones Transportation Average are both higher by 1.5% with all components showing gains. Airlines are among the leaders with United Continental (UAL 47.28, +1.27) and Delta Air Lines (DAL 39.39, +0.86) up 2.7% and 2.2%, respectively.

Outside of industrials, the financial sector (+1.0%) is another noteworthy outperformer among cyclical groups. The sector has received support from most of its large components with Citigroup (C 49.44, +0.72) leading the pack.

10:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have built on their opening gains with the S&P 500 now trading higher by 0.8%. All ten sectors continue hovering in the green, but the energy space (+0.1%) lags, which has been a bit of a drag on the broader market.

The energy sector has been pressured by crude oil, which trades down 1.5% at $95.93/bbl. Meanwhile, the other commodity-related sector-materials (+0.8%)-trades in line with the broader market. Steelmakers have contributed to the strength as the Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX 49.22, +0.43) sports an advance of 0.9%. Mining stocks, however, are among the laggards with the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 26.70, -0.12) down 0.5%. Similarly, gold futures are lower by 0.5% at $1300.00/ozt.

The early strength in equities has caused some participants to move away from Treasuries. The benchmark 10-yr note has recently notched a fresh low (-11/32) to push its yield up to 2.38%.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

The dollar index is trading 0.2% higher this morning at 81.48, which is helping weigh on select commodities this morning
Sept crude oil remains in negative territory and just extended losses in recent trade to a new LoD of $96.03/barrel
Sept crude oil is now -1.2% at $96.16/barrel
Copper, natural gas and silver put in a small rally in recent trade.
Natural gas rose to a new HoD just under an hour ago, while copper hit a new HoD in more recent trade
Sept natural gas is now +0.3% at $3.79/MMBtu
Dec gold continues to trade in the red and near its LoD. Dec gold is now -0.6% at $1298.70/oz, while Sept silver is +0.5% at $19.62/oz
Sept copper is +0.3% at $3.11/lb

9:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.6%, while the Russell 2000 (+0.9%) continues showing relative strength.

The NAHB Housing Market Index for August rose to 55 from 53, while the Briefing.com consensus expected the reading to hold at 53.

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] As expected, the major averages jumped out of the gate. Small-cap stocks have shown early strength with the Russell 2000 trading higher by 0.7%, while the S&P 500 (+0.5%) follows not far behind.

All ten S&P 500 sectors hold opening gains with cyclical consumer discretionary (+0.7%), industrials (+0.9%), and financials (+0.6%) lending support to the benchmark index. Also of note, the technology sector (+0.5%) trades just behind the S&P 500, but chipmakers lag notably. The PHLX Semiconductor is lower by 0.1%.

Treasuries remain near their overnight lows with the 10-yr yield up three basis points at 2.37%.

The NAHB Housing Market Index for August will be released at 10:00 ET.

9:12 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +11.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +21.50. The stock market is on track for an upbeat start to the week as futures on the S&P 500 trade 12 points above fair value. Global equities have received a boost after the White House questioned the veracity of Friday's claims from Ukraine's officials concerning an attack on a Russian military convoy. To that point, representatives from Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany began a series of meetings yesterday to discuss a potential ceasefire, but no agreement has been reached as of yet.

Domestically, investors have received some company-specific headlines, while economic data will be limited to the NAHB Housing Market Index for August, which will be released at 10:00 ET.

On the corporate front, Dollar General (DG 63.10, +5.64) is higher by 9.8% in pre-market after offering to acquire Family Dollar (FDO 79.96, +3.92) for $78.50/share, which represents a 3.2% premium to Friday's closing price.

Treasuries hover near their lows with the 10-yr yield up three basis points at 2.37%.

8:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +10.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.20. The S&P 500 futures trade almost 11 points above fair value.

Markets gained ground across most of Asia.

Economic data was limited:
China's House Prices rose 2.5% year-over-year (previous 4.2%), while Foreign Direct Investment tumbled 17.0% year-over-year
Australia's New Motor Vehicle Sales fell 1.3% month-over-month (last 2.2%)
Hong Kong's Unemployment Rate ticked up to 3.3% from 3.2% (consensus 3.2%)

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Japan's Nikkei (UNCH) held at its best levels in two weeks. Chugai Pharmaceutical surged 15.4% on word Roche (currently has ~60% stake) was considering buying the remainder of the company.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng (UNCH) lingered near its best levels since November 2010. China Vanke fell 2.2%, hit by the one-two punch of declining prices on the mainland and a lackluster earnings report.
China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.6%, finishing at an eight-month high. Financials lagged with Bank of China falling 1.1%.

Major European indices trade higher across the board with Germany's DAX (+1.3%) in the lead. Foreign ministers from Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany met over the weekend to discuss a potential ceasefire, but no agreement has been reached yet.

Participants received just two data points:
Eurozone trade surplus narrowed to EUR13.80 billion from EUR15.20 billion (expected surplus of EUR14.90 billion)
Great Britain's Rightmove House Price Index fell 2.9% month-over-month (previous -0.8%)

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Great Britain's FTSE is higher by 0.7% amid broad strength. Airlines outperform with EasyJet and International Consolidated Airlines Group up between 1.8% and 2.4%. Food retailer Tesco is the weakest performer, down 0.7%.
In France, the CAC trades up 1.1% with 39 of its 40 components holding gains. Exporter Renault leads with an advance of 3.0%. BNP Paribas and GDF Suez are among the laggards. BNP Paribas is flat and GDF Suez is higher by 0.3%.
Germany's DAX holds an advance of 1.3%. Health care names outperform with Bayer and Fresenius Medical Care up 1.8% and 2.4%, respectively. On the downside, Muenchener Re is lower by 0.3%.

8:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +10.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.70. U.S. equity futures remain near their pre-market highs with the S&P 500 futures ten points above fair value. Global equities have received a boost over the weekend after the White House questioned the veracity of Friday's claims from Ukraine's officials concerning an attack on a Russian military convoy. On a related note, foreign ministers from Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany began a series of meetings yesterday to discuss a potential ceasefire, but no agreement has been reached yet.

Domestically, participants have been responding to a handful of corporate headlines including Dollar General's (DG 63.50, +6.04) offer to acquire Family Dollar (FDO 79.90, +3.84) for $78.50/share, which represents a 3.2% premium to Friday's closing price.

7:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +11.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +21.70. U.S. equity futures hover near their pre-market highs amid upbeat action overseas. The S&P 500 futures trade 11 points above fair value. Over the weekend, the White House disputed Friday's reports regarding a Russian military convoy being partially destroyed by Ukrainian troops. This has given a boost to global equities, while pressuring Treasuries and German Bunds. The 10-yr note is on its low with the benchmark yield up three basis points at 2.37%, while Germany's 10-yr also sits near its worst level of the day with the yield at 1.00%.

Today's economic data will be limited to the NAHB Housing Market Index for August, which will be released at 10:00 ET (Briefing.com consensus 53.0).
In U.S. corporate news of note:

China Mobile Games (CMGE 14.80, -0.06): -0.4% after its cautious guidance overshadowed better than expected results.
Family Dollar (FDO 79.95, +3.89): +5.1% after receiving an acquisition offer from Dollar General (DG 62.19, +4.73) for $78.50/share
JinkoSolar (JKS 27.25, -0.57): -2.1% despite beating earnings expectations and raising its shipment guidance.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mostly higher. China's Shanghai Composite +0.6%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Japan's Nikkei settled just above their flat lines
In economic data:
China's House Prices rose 2.5% year-over-year (previous 4.2%), while Foreign Direct Investment decreased 0.4% (prior 2.2%)
Australia's New Motor Vehicle Sales fell 1.3% month-over-month (last 2.2%)
Hong Kong's Unemployment Rate ticked up to 3.3% from 3.2% (consensus 3.2%)
In news:
In China, home prices in all 70 surveyed cities posted their third decline on a monthly basis

Major European indices trade higher across the board. Great Britain's FTSE +0.8%, France's CAC +1.1%, and Germany's DAX +1.5%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB +0.8% and Spain's IBEX +1.1%
Economic data was limited:
Eurozone trade surplus narrowed to EUR13.80 billion from EUR15.20 billion (expected surplus of EUR14.90 billion)
Great Britain's Rightmove House Price Index fell 2.9% month-over-month (previous -0.8%)
Among news of note:
Foreign Ministers from Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany met over the weekend to discuss a potential ceasefire, but no agreement has been reached yet.

6:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +9.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.00.

6:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...15322.60...+4.20...0.00. Hang Seng...24955.46...+0.50...0.00.

6:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6734.36...+45.30...+0.70%. DAX...92203.67...+131.10...+1.40%.

Treasuries Drop on Ukraine Talks, U.S. Economic Data

By Susanne Walker Aug 18, 2014 5:14 PM ET

Treasuries fell, with 10-year note yields rising from almost the lowest level since June 2013, as haven demand ebbed amid talks on the Ukraine conflict and bets that data this week will show U.S. economic improvement.

Yields rose for the first time in four days as a gauge of U.S. homebuilder confidence in August unexpectedly increased. A report tomorrow is forecast to show housing starts rebounded last month. The Federal Reserve will publish minutes of its July meeting on Aug. 20, two days before Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak at an annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

“We are seeing the stretched rubber band of geopolitical worries relax some, and with it Treasuries are losing some steam,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. “It’s hard to see value in Treasuries at these levels.”

The benchmark 10-year note yield climbed five basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 2.39 percent at 5 p.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. It was the biggest increase at closing since July 30. The 2.375 percent note due August 2024 sank 15/32, or $4.69 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 27/32. The yield slid to 2.30 percent on Aug. 15, the lowest level since June 19, 2013.

Thirty-year (USGG30YR) bond yields increased seven basis points, also the most since July 30, to 3.20 percent. They touched 3.10 percent on Aug. 15, the least since May 22, 2013.

Volume Falls

The amount of Treasuries traded through ICAP Plc, the largest inter-dealer broker of U.S. government debt, dropped 53 percent to $184 billion in its first decrease in five days. It was the lowest level since July 14. Daily volume reached $504 billion on Aug. 1, the highest in three months. The 2014 average is $326 billion.

Stocks climbed as investors’ appetite for risk increased, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gaining 0.9 percent.

Treasuries rallied last week as turmoil between Ukraine and Russia and weakening economic data in the U.S. fueled demand for safety. The yield on U.S. 10-year notes has fallen almost 20 basis points since July 31, headed for the biggest monthly decline since January.

“We’ve gone a little bit too far, too fast,” said Michael Franzese, senior vice president of fixed-income trading at ED&F Man Capital Markets in New York. “Geopolitical risks are starting to subside.”

Ukraine Talks

Officials from Ukraine, Russia and other countries met in Berlin to discuss a truce in territory in eastern Ukraine held by pro-Russian rebels. Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said the talks would continue in coming days.

Kurdish and Iraqi forces seized control of Iraq’s largest dam from Islamic State militants as the U.S. deployed air power. President Barack Obama said at the White House the U.S. will continued “limited” airstrikes against the militants.

Treasury yields accelerated increases after the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment measure increased to 55, the highest in seven months. The reading last month was 53, and economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast it would hold at that level in August.

U.S. housing starts jumped 8.1 percent last month to an annual rate of 965,000, the first increase since April, according to a Bloomberg News survey before a Commerce Department report tomorrow.

First-time claims for jobless benefits fell in the week through Aug. 16, after climbing to a six-week high in the previous period, a survey forecast before the Labor Department releases the data on Aug. 21.

Reports last week showed U.S. retail sales stalled in July and consumer confidence fell this month.

Insufficient Strength

“The U.S. data we’ve seen in August have not been strong enough to change the path the Fed is on right now,” said Jason Rogan, managing director of U.S. government trading at Guggenheim Securities, a New York-based brokerage for institutional investors. Yellen “will probably lean a little on the dovish side.”

Yellen is scheduled to speak at the Kansas City Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Aug. 22. The event, which begins Aug. 21, will focus on the labor market.

The conference has an agenda-setting reputation. In 2010 and 2012, then-Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled new rounds of bond purchases that have pumped up the Fed’s balance sheet to a record $4.4 trillion.

‘So Clear’

“There won’t be much new from Jackson Hole,” said LeBas of Janney Montgomery Scott. “Yellen has been so clear with her plans that all the Fed can do is reinforce those plans.”

Yellen has cited labor-market slack as a reason for keeping rates low even as employment improves. The Fed, in a statement July 30 after its last meeting, said “a range of labor-market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources.”

Policy makers at the two-day meeting kept the benchmark interest-rate target unchanged and trimmed monthly bond purchases to $25 billion.

“Any kind of back-up in yields doesn’t really change the narrative of a market looking forward to the support of central banks for an extended period,” said Adrian Miller, director of fixed-income strategies at GMP Securities LLC in New York.

There’s a 73 percent chance the Fed will raise the rate from the current range of zero to 0.25 percent by December 2015, futures trading showed. That’s about the same likelihood as seen a month ago.

To contact the reporter on this story: Susanne Walker in New York at swalker33@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net Greg Storey

More Bloomberg Market Context

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-1 ... lines.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-1 ... -high.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-1 ... ports.html

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

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@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader @ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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