Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification
Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $1,060.00 dollars or +10.60 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $1,060.00 dollars
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
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Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.
##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) my thought process from trade to trade so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell. If you join the chat room and then you do not ask any questions about WRB Analysis in your own trading or you do not document (journal) your own thoughts from trade to trade...the chat room will not be useful to you. Chat room access instructions @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164 Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718 Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR). Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=234&t=2257 -----------------------------
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The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets
NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Investors hit the sell button today as worries about global tensions and more bad news out of China overshadowed good news on the U.S. economy.
The Dow fell more than 230 points, or 1.4%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also were off by more than 1%. All three indexes were up in earlier trading.
Wall Street is waiting to see what happens in Sunday's Crimean referendum on joining the Russian Federation, and what that outcome may mean for markets.
In addition, China announced that retail sales and industrial production were both worse than expected and that helped add to worries that the story out of China won't be a good one for investors anytime soon.
European and Asian stock markets finished Thursday mostly lower due to the worries about a slowdown in China.
"For China, the question is whether the [government] authorities are in control of the slowdown, or if it starts controlling them," said Simon Smith, chief economist at FxPro.
The China and Ukraine concerns overshadowed a report by the U.S. government that retail sales in February were up 0.3%. This was the first increase in three months as consumers bought more autos and clothing. On the jobs front, initial unemployment claims fell by 9,000 to 315,000, a three month low.
But even with the broader market lower, several high-profile stocks gained ground.
Fuel cell maker Plug Power (PLUG) was sharply higher after releasing fourth quarter results. Although the company reported a loss, CEO Andy Marsh said he believes that orders for this year will be nearly four times 2013's total orders.
The stock has surged since disclosing a big order from Walmart last month. But it -- as well as rivals FuelCell Energy (FCEL) and Ballard Power Systems (BLDP) -- are highly speculative companies.
"$PLUG Be careful on this -- major bear flags all around. Retail may be propping this up, but institutions can take it down easily," said StockTwits user PowerKing
But danbetz didn't think the run in Plug Power was done yet. "$PLUG good news is we have great diversity of opinion here, this makes a market and plug stream proves the bull market is far from over," he wrote.
Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) rose after saying that it would boost the annual cost of its Amazon Prime membership by $20 a year to $99. Investors seemed relieved that the price hike was not as steep as it said it could be just a month ago. The stock was the top gainer in CNNMoney's Tech 30 index Thursday.
But one trader thought the price increase was a bad move "$AMZN 20 bucks is a big hit! all hikes suck..subscriber growth @20 million..some will bail..incomes are down. not a good time," wrote Thorgood.
Herbalife (HLF)was sharply lower following a sell-off on Wednesday after the Federal Trade Commission said it's investigating the multi-level marketer. Shares are down nearly 27% so far this year. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman has been a loud critic of the company, calling it a "pyramid scheme".
There was a sweet treat for owners of Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD) this morning. The company reported a strong outlook for sales and earnings. Shares were up slightly today, and are up more than 30% over the past 12 months. Dunkin' Brands (DNKN) was lower Thursday, but the stock is up nearly 40% in the past year.
In-flight digital entertainment provider Gogo (GOGO) was down despite reporting a smaller than expected loss, and beating revenue estimates in the fourth quarter. But the stock still had some fans today.
"$GOGO Solid company, great growth potential, still ramping up revs. Those who sold will be sorry this time next month," said ajohnke on StockTwits.
Shares of discount retailer Dollar General (DG, Fortune 500) shares were lower after reporting weaker than expected sales in the fourth quarter. Dollar General blamed the bad winter weather.
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4:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages finished the Thursday session near their lows after renewed concerns surrounding the situation in Ukraine, combined with more warnings signs from China, contributed to participants reducing their risk exposure. The jitters related to China are tied up in economic and financial risk, whereas, the concerns over Ukraine are tied up in geopolitical risk that has the potential to become a global economic problem.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq (-1.5%) led the retreat while the S&P 500 lost 1.2% with eight sectors ending in the red. As a result, the benchmark index settled below its 2013 closing high of 1848.36.
Equity indices began the session with modest gains, but the early strength was short-lived as the S&P 500 notched its high within the first ten minutes of action, spending the remainder of the trading day in a steady slide. Although stocks opened higher, the dollar/yen pair flashed an early warning signal when it began dropping at the start of the New York Session. The currency pair hovered near 102.80, but slumped all the way to 101.60 by the time the closing bell rang.
The yen often draws safe-haven interest in times of geopolitical distress and today's move basically snowballed given carry-trade dynamics that work against yen-based borrowers when the currency strengthens. In turn, the sharp move weighed on risk assets, including US stocks.
Continued worries about the strength of the Chinese economy fed into the risk-off posture after industrial production (8.6% year-over-year versus 9.5% expected), fixed asset investment (17.9% year-over-year versus 19.4% expected), and retail sales (11.8% year-over-year versus 13.5% expected) all fell short of estimates. Copper futures have been pressured recently, and continued retreating today. The red metal fell 1.3% to $2.923/lb.
Elsewhere, the dispute between Russia and Ukraine jumped back into focus after Ukraine's acting President Oleksandr Turchynov was quoted by Reuters as saying he believes Russian forces concentrated on Ukraine's eastern border are 'ready to invade.' The comments were followed by a statement from U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who said if the Sunday referendum goes ahead as planned there will be a 'serious series of steps' taking place on Monday from the United States and Europe.
Notably, Treasuries, which began climbing just after the start of the New York session, accelerated their advance following the remarks from President Turchynov. The 10-yr note added 24 ticks, sending the benchmark yield lower by nine basis points to 2.65%.
Similarly, volatility protection was in high demand as indicated by an 12.1% increase in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 16.22, +1.75).
Nine sectors posted losses with cyclical groups bearing the brunt of the weakness. The tech sector (-1.6%) registered the largest decline while industrials (-1.5%) and consumer discretionary (-1.4%) followed not far behind. The underperformance of technology weighed on the Nasdaq, which also suffered from the relative weakness of biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 254.80, -6.70) tumbled 2.6%. Biotech also weighed on the health care sector (-1.4%), which was the only laggard among countercyclical groups.
The remaining defensive sectors-consumer staples (-0.6%), telecom services (-0.4%), and utilities (+0.9%)-outperformed with utilities overtaking the health care sector for the top spot on this year's leaderboard. The rate-sensitive sector extended its year-to-date gain to 6.2% versus 5.6% for health care.
Despite the daylong selling pressure, participation was below average with 678 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.
Reviewing today's data:
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Retail sales increased 0.3% in February after declining a downwardly revised 0.6% (from -0.4%) in January. The Briefing.com consensus expected retail sales to increase 0.2%.The report was pretty solid, but did not represent an upward shock that would come as a result of pent up winter-delayed demand. Sales increased in-line with the 0.2% increase in aggregate earnings that were reported in the February employment report. We would have expected a bigger upward swing if pent up demand was unleashed.
The initial claims level fell to 315,000 for the week ending March 8 from an upwardly revised 324,000 (from 323,000) for the week ending March 1. The Briefing.com consensus expected the initial claims level to increase to 329,000. The DOL reported that there were no special factors that drove the initial claims level to its lowest point since November 2013.
Total business inventories increased 0.4% in January after increasing an unrevised 0.5% in December while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.3%. Total inventories consist of manufacturers, merchant wholesalers, and retailers. Both manufacturer (0.2%) and wholesaler (0.6%) inventories were announced prior to the release. The only unknown was retailer inventories, which increased 0.4% in January after increasing 0.7% in December. The important takeaway from the report was that the inventory gain may not have been planned. Total business sales fell 0.9% in January after declining 0.1% in December. That sharp drop in spending caused an overstock situation as more goods than expected were left on shelves.
The Treasury Budget for February showed a deficit of $193.50 billion, which followed the prior month's deficit of $203.50 billion. The Briefing.com consensus expected the deficit to hit $195.00 billion.
Tomorrow, February PPI will be released at 8:30 ET while the preliminary reading of the Michigan Sentiment Survey for March will cross the wires at 9:55 ET.
Nasdaq Composite +2.0% YTD
Russell 2000 +1.5% YTD
S&P 500 -0.1% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -2.8% YTD
3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]
Apr gold and May silver fell to their respective session lows of $1364.90 per ounce and $21.10 per ounce in early morning pit trade on better-than-anticipated retail sales and initial claims data.
Retail sales increased 0.3% in Feb after declining a downwardly revised 0.6% (from -0.4%) in Jan. TheBriefing.com consensus expected retail sales to increase 0.2%. The initial claims level fell to 315,000 for the week ending March 8 from an upwardly revised 324,000 (from 323,000) for the week ending March 1. TheBriefing.com consensus expected the initial claims level to increase to 329,000.
Gold then gained support from a weaker dollar index and rose above the unchanged line by afternoon action. It brushed a session high of $1375.40 per ounce and settled with a 0.1% gain at $1372.10 per ounce. Silver touched a session high of $21.34 per ounce in afternoon floor trade but lost momentum ahead of the close and settled with a 0.9% loss at $21.17 per ounce.
Apr crude oil see-sawed between positive and negative territory today. It dipped to a session low of $97.67 per barrel moments after floor trade opened and later touched a session high of $98.44 per barrel. The energy component eventually settled 0.3% higher at $98.26 per barrel.
Apr natural gas spent its entire floor session in the red, with prices falling as low as $4.36 per MMBtu. The weakness came on inventory data that showed a draw of 195 bcf when a draw of 191-196 bcf was anticipated. Unable to find buying support, natural gas settled 2.2% lower at $4.39 per MMBtu.
3:05 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-1.2%) has dropped to a fresh session low with one hour remaining in the trading day. Similar to the benchmark index, the dollar/yen pair (101.65) has also marked a new session low.
The currency pair, and specifically the yen, is expected to remain in focus overnight when Asian markets open. Currently, Nikkei futures trade lower by 2.5% as the stronger yen weighs.
At this time, the technology sector (-1.6%) remains at the bottom of the leaderboard while industrials (-1.6%) follow not far behind.
On the upside, the utilities sector (+1.2%) has climbed throughout the session, extending its year-to-date gain to 6.4%. Today's advance has helped the defensive group overtake health care for the top spot on this year's leaderboard. The health care sector is higher by 5.8% so far in 2014.
2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Recent action saw the S&P 500 slip back towards its session low in a move that coincided with the dollar/yen pair returning towards its own lowest level of the day. Currently, the S&P 500 hovers right below its 2013 closing high of 1848.36.
Turning the focus back to the foreign exchange market, the euro was knocked to fresh lows (1.3850) against the dollar after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that too low inflation is now a bigger concern than keeping the price level from climbing too high. It should be noted these comments took place after the euro ended yesterday's session at its highest level since late 2011 (1.3916).
2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-1.0%) trades roughly six points off its session low with the top-weighted sector-technology (-1.5%)-showing the largest loss. Elsewhere among influential sectors, consumer discretionary (-1.2%), health care (-1.1%), and industrials (-1.3%) lag while financials (-0.9%) trade just ahead of the broader market.
Treasuries remain near their highs with the 10-yr yield down seven basis points at 2.66%.
Also of note, the February Treasury Budget showed a deficit of $193.50 billion, which followed the prior month's deficit of $203.50 billion. The Briefing.com consensus expected the deficit to hit $195.00 billion.
1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Broad-based selling activity has knocked the indices noticeably lower. With the pullback, the S&P 500 dipped its toe back into negative territory for the year, but quickly pulled it out of that icy water as technical support was found in the 1845 area.
There hasn't been a rush of buying interest, but the S&P 500 has regained a posture above its 2013 closing level of 1848.36. This will be a line of technical support in the sand as the rest of today's session unfolds.
As noted in previous updates, there have been some worrisome-sounding headlines today regarding the Russia-Ukraine standoff. A headline recently crossed, however, indicating the Chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has said Russia is now backing the idea of an OSCE mission in Ukraine and Crimea. This will probably be believed when it is actually seen (and heard from Russia), but it appears to have helped stem the tide of selling interest for the time being.
The dollar-yen cross, which has been in the crosshairs all day, has shown a little improvement of late, but is still down sharply (-0.9%) for the day at 101.77. The action here will likely be viewed as a signpost for the stock market's intraday recovery potential.
1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] At midday, the major averages are on their lows with the Russell 2000 (-1.2%) seeing the largest decline. The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.9% with nine sectors showing losses.
Equity indices began the day with modest gains, but the S&P 500 notched its high within the initial 10 minutes before commencing its steady retreat.
In all likelihood, two factors fueled the slide and they continue to weigh on sentiment at this juncture. Overnight, China reported some economic data that indicated a slowdown in the pace of its economic growth. Industrial production (8.6% year-over-year versus 9.5% expected), fixed asset investment (17.9% year-over-year versus 19.4% expected), and retail sales (11.8% year-over-year versus 13.5% expected) all fell short of estimates. It should be noted the disappointing data was reported amid persistent worries about the country's corporate bond market.
Elsewhere, with the Crimean referendum on joining the Russian Federation still scheduled for Sunday, participants are likely reducing their risk exposure ahead of the weekend event. Earlier, Ukraine's acting President Oleksandr Turchynov was quoted as saying he believes Russia is 'ready to invade.' The comments were followed by a statement from U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who said if the referendum goes ahead as planned there will be 'serious series of steps' taking place on Monday from the United States and Europe.
The risk-off sentiment has also been reflected by the Treasury market where the 10-yr note (+20/32) sits on its high with the benchmark yield down seven basis points at 2.66%. Strikingly, the rally in Treasuries accelerated just after the remarks from Ukraine's acting president.
Coinciding with the rally in Treasuries was a steady retreat in the dollar/yen pair, which currently hovers near 101.80 after starting the session in the 102.80 area. Considering the popularity of the yen-based carry trade, a sharp move higher in the Japanese yen has likely led to some forced unwinding of those trades. Yen strength has been even more notable versus the euro. The euro/yen pair is lower by nearly 150 pips (near 141.50) after being up around 50 pips overnight.
Of the ten economic sectors, only four groups trade ahead of the broader market at this time. Consumer staples (-0.2%), telecom services (-0.2%), and utilities (+0.8%) are holding up relatively well while the materials sector (-0.7%) is the only outperformer among cyclical sectors.
With stocks on lows, participants are showing increased demand for volatility protection as indicated by a 9.3% jump in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 15.83, +1.36).
Reviewing today's data:
Retail sales increased 0.3% in February after declining a downwardly revised 0.6% (from -0.4%) in January. The Briefing.com consensus expected retail sales to increase 0.2%.The report was pretty solid, but did not represent an upward shock that would come as a result of pent up winter-delayed demand. Sales increased in-line with the 0.2% increase in aggregate earnings that were reported in the February employment report. We would have expected a bigger upward swing if pent up demand was unleashed.
The initial claims level fell to 315,000 for the week ending March 8 from an upwardly revised 324,000 (from 323,000) for the week ending March 1. The Briefing.com consensus expected the initial claims level to increase to 329,000. The DOL reported that there were no special factors that drove the initial claims level to its lowest point since November 2013.
Total business inventories increased 0.4% in January after increasing an unrevised 0.5% in December while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.3%. Total inventories consist of manufacturers, merchant wholesalers, and retailers. Both manufacturer (0.2%) and wholesaler (0.6%) inventories were announced prior to the release. The only unknown was retailer inventories, which increased 0.4% in January after increasing 0.7% in December. The important takeaway from the report was that the inventory gain may not have been planned. Total business sales fell 0.9% in January after declining 0.1% in December. That sharp drop in spending caused an overstock situation as more goods than expected were left on shelves.
The Treasury Budget for February will be released at 14:00 ET.
12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has extended its decline to 0.6% amid considerable pressure among most sectors. On that note, only four groups trade ahead of the broader market at this juncture with three sectors falling under the 'defensive' umbrella.
Consumer staples (unch), telecom services (unch), and utilities (+0.8%) are holding up relative well while the materials sector (-0.5%) is the only outperformer among cyclical sectors.
Also of note, Treasuries have continued rallying since our last update and the 10-yr note is now higher by 18 ticks with its yield down six basis points at 2.67%. It should be noted the rally in Treasuries accelerated following comments from Ukraine's acting President Turchynov who said Russia appears ready to invade Ukraine.
Earlier we pointed to a retreat in the dollar/yen pair to highlight the risk-off sentiment in the foreign exchange market, but yen strength has been even more notable versus the euro. The euro/yen pair is lower by nearly 100 pips (near 142.00) after being up around 50 pips overnight.
12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Not much let-up in the recent selling pressure as the major averages sit on their lows. Conversely, Treasuries have been extending their gains, pressuring the 10-yr yield to 2.68% (-5 bps).
A continued flight to safety has also sent the dollar/yen pair to a fresh low (102.15) with the recent move coming after Ukraine's acting President Oleksandr Turchynov was quoted as saying he believes Russia is 'ready to invade.' This comes after reports over the past few days pointed to a build-up of Russian troops along Ukraine's eastern borders.
11:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain in the red with the S&P 500 trading lower by 0.3%. As mentioned in our last update, an upward move in the Japanese yen has likely factored into the retreat given the popularity of the yen-based carry trade; however, warning flags have also been spotted in other areas.
Continued worries about the strength of economic growth in China could also be playing a part after the country released three economic reports that missed estimates. Retail Sales rose 11.8% year-over-year (13.5% expected, 13.6% prior), Industrial Production expanded 8.6% year-over-year (9.5% consensus, 9.7% last), and Fixed Asset Investment increased 17.9% year-over-year (19.4% forecast, 19.6% previous). The reports showed that while the essential areas continue growing, the pace of growth may be slowing down. Copper, which has been in focus in recent days, is currently lower by 0.5% at $2.948 after trading near its flat line at the start of the session.
Finally, with the Crimean referendum on joining the Russian Federation still scheduled for Sunday, participants may be reducing their risk exposure ahead of the event. Not long ago, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said if referendum goes ahead as planned there will be 'serious series of steps' taking place on Monday from the United States and Europe.
With stocks on lows, participants are showing interest in volatility protection as indicated by a 3.0% increase in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 14.90, +0.43).
Similarly, Treasuries are on their highs after starting the day in the red. The benchmark 10-yr yield is lower by three basis points at 2.70%.
11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have slid into the red with small caps pacing the retreat. The Russell 2000 is lower by 0.4% while the S&P 500 trades down 0.2% with six sectors showing losses.
Although there was no news accounting for the slide from the early highs, it is worth mentioning that the retreat has been accompanied by a steady retreat in the dollar/yen pair (yen strength), suggesting carry unwinds may be playing a part. The pair hovers near 102.35 after starting the session in the 102.80 area.
Most notably, heavily-weighted groups like consumer discretionary (-0.3%), financials (-0.3%), and technology (-0.4%) displayed early strength, but are now among the laggards. Elsewhere, two other influential groups-health care and industrials-sit near their flat lines as they continue exhibiting relative strength.
On the upside, three countercyclical sectors are holding up well. Consumer staples and telecom services are both up near 0.2% while the utilities sector trades higher by 0.6% after finishing yesterday's session in the lead. Including its current gain, the sector is higher by 1.0% so far in March versus a 0.3% gain for the S&P 500. Only the financial sector (+1.9%) is having a better showing month-to-date.
10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]
Commodities are mixed today, while the dollar index has been in the red all day.
Natural gas futures were sliding lower ahead of the weekly EIA inventory data and put in a session low of $4.40/MMBtu
Following the inventory data, Apr natural gas fell to a new session low of $4.37/MMBtu and is now -2% at $4.40/MMBtu
Apr crude oil futures are showing modest gains this morning, now up 0.1% at $98.03/barrel
Gold and silver slipped lower this morning. Apr gold is now -0.3% at $1366.80/oz. May silver is -0.7% at $21.22/oz
May copper is currently -0.1% at $2.96/lb
10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has trimmed its gain to 0.2%.
Despite starting the session among the leaders, the discretionary sector (+0.1%) has swung from a position of strength to that of relative weakness. Similarly, SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 86.79, +0.19) has retreated from its early high.
Just reported, January business inventories rose 0.4%, which was above the 0.3% increase expected by the Briefing.com consensus. This follows the prior month's unrevised increase of 0.5%.
9:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages began the trading day on a modestly higher note with the S&P 500 trading up 0.2% with nine sectors showing early gains.
Consumer discretionary (+0.4%), financials (+0.4%), and industrials (+0.5%) lagged yesterday, but all three groups began the day ahead of the broader market.
Retailers have shown early strength following the better-than-expected February Retail Sales report (+0.3% versus Briefing.com consensus +0.2%) with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 87.05, +0.45) trading higher by 0.5%.
Elsewhere, health care (+0.2%) and technology (+0.2%) trade just behind the S&P 500.
Treasuries remain near their lows with the 10-yr yield up one basis point at 2.75%.
The January Business Inventories report will be released at 10:00 ET.
9:15 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.50. The stock market is on track to begin the session on a modestly higher note as futures on the S&P 500 trade nearly five points above fair value.
Generally speaking, the overnight session was very quiet with the exception of some disappointing data from China. On that note, retail sales rose 11.8% year-over-year (13.5% expected, 13.6% prior), industrial production expanded 8.6% year-over-year (9.5% consensus, 9.7% last), and fixed asset investment increased 17.9% year-over-year (19.4% forecast, 19.6% previous). Also of note, China's Premier Li Keqiang spoke at the National People's Congress, saying the country's government will not let systemic risks come to the forefront as a result of debt defaults. In all likelihood, the comments were aimed at recent speculation surrounding a potential impending wave of defaults.
Turning the focus back to the U.S., the February Retail Sales report indicated an increase of 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%), but that comes against the backdrop of a downwardly revised January reading (-0.6% from -0.4%).
Treasuries hold modest losses with the 10-yr yield up one basis point at 2.75%.
January business inventories will cross the wires at 10:00 ET and the February Treasury Budget will be released at 14:00 ET.
9:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.70. The S&P 500 futures trade four points above fair value.
Major Asian markets finished the Thursday session on a mixed note. China's Premier Li Keqiang spoke at the National People's Congress, saying the country's government will not let systemic risks come to the forefront as a result of debt defaults. This comes amid recent worries about an impending wave of defaults.
Data from the Middle Kingdom was disappointing as industrial production (8.6% year-over-year versus 9.5% expected), fixed asset investment (17.9% year-over-year versus 19.4% expected), and retail sales (11.8% year-over-year versus 13.5% expected) all fell short of estimates. Elsewhere, Japan's core machinery orders surged 13.4% month-over-month (7.3% expected, -15.7% previous), but the reading is being discounted due to the steep decline that took place in January. Australia's employment change (47.3K versus 18.0K expected, 18.0K previous) posted its strongest reading since 1991. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.0%, its highest since 2003.
Also of note, New Zealand became the first developed nation to hike rates since the onset of the financial crisis. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked its Official Cash Rate 25 basis points to 2.75%, as expected. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.50%, as expected.
Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.1% to a one and a half-week low. Shipping stocks were hit on the soft Chinese data as Mitsui & Co. and Nippon Yusen lost 3.0% and 2.6%, respectively.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng slid 0.7% to a one-month low. Real estate shares were on the defensive as China Overseas Land & Investment tumbled 4.1% and China Resources Land fell 3.3%.
China's Shanghai Composite climbed 1.1%, rising off near two-month lows as trade regained the 2000 level. Trade was boosted by reports of a pilot program for preferred shares. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China added 1.2%.
Major European indices trade little changed while Italy's MIB (+0.8%) outperforms. Economic data was scarce. French CPI rose 0.5% month-over-month (0.4% expected, -0.6% last), Spain's Retail Sales increased 0.5% year-over-year (-0.8% consensus, -1.0% previous), and Italy's CPI ticked down 0.1% month-over-month while the year-over-year reading increased 0.5%. Both figures met expectations.
Great Britain's FTSE is lower by 0.3% amid notable weakness among food retailers. J Sainsbury, Tesco, and WM Morrison Supermarkets hold losses between 4.5% and 9.8% after WM Morrison forecast a decline in profits. The weakness sent the stock to its lowest levels in almost six years.
In France, the CAC is flat. Software company Gemalto leads with a gain of 2.8% after receiving a new contract in China. Consumer names Accor, Carrefour, and L'Oreal underperform with losses between 0.6% and 1.1%.
Germany's DAX trades higher by 0.2%. Lufthansa trades up 5.9% after issuing upbeat guidance. On the downside, K+S holds a loss of 5.5% after issuing a profit warning and proposing a dividend cut.
In Italy, the MIB holds an advance of 0.8% with banks in the lead. Banca Popolare di Milano Scarl, BMPS, and Mediobanca display gains between 2.4% and 6.0%.
8:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.00. The S&P 500 futures trade almost five points above fair value.
February retail sales rose 0.3% while the Briefing.com consensus expected an uptick of 0.2%. The prior month's reading was revised to reflect a decrease of 0.6% (from -0.4%). Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.3% against the 0.2% increase expected by the consensus.
The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 315,000, which was lower than the 329,000 that had been expected by the Briefing.com consensus. Today's tally was below the revised prior week count of 324,000 (from 323,000). As for continuing claims, they fell to 2.855 million from 2.903 million.
Export prices, excluding agriculture, ticked up 0.6% in February after increasing 0.2% in the prior reading. Excluding oil, import prices fell 0.2%, which follows last month's uptick of 0.5%.
8:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.50. U.S. equity futures trade little changed amid subdued action overseas. The S&P 500 futures hover three points above fair value.
Reviewing overnight developments:
Asian markets ended mixed. Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.7%, Japan's Nikkei -0.1%, and China's Shanghai Composite +1.1%.
Economic data was plentiful:
China's Retail Sales rose 11.8% year-over-year (13.5% expected, 13.6% prior), Industrial Production expanded 8.6% year-over-year (9.5% consensus, 9.7% last), and Fixed Asset Investment increased 17.9% year-over-year (19.4% forecast, 19.6% previous).
Japan's Core Machinery Orders rose 13.4% month-over-month (7.0% expected, -15.7% prior) while the year-over-year reading jumped 23.6% (18.8% consensus, 6.7% last).
Australia's employment expanded by 47,300 (18,000 expected, 18,000 last) while the participation rate increased 64.8% (64.5% consensus, 64.6% prior). The unemployment rate held steady at 6.0%, as expected.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked its key interest rate 25 basis points to 2.75%, as expected.
The Bank of Korea held its key interest rate at 2.50%, as expected.
In news:
China's Premier Li Keqiang spoke at the National People's Congress, saying the country's government will not let systemic risks come to the forefront as a result of debt defaults. This comes amid recent worries about an impending wave of defaults.
Major European indices trade little changed. Great Britain's FTSE -0.2%, France's CAC -0.1%, and Germany's DAX +0.2%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB +0.7% and Spain's IBEX is unchanged.
Economic data was scarce:
French CPI rose 0.5% month-over-month (0.4% expected, -0.6% last).
Spain's Retail Sales increased 0.5% year-over-year (-0.8% consensus, -1.0% previous).
Italy's CPI ticked down 0.1% month-over-month while the year-over-year reading increased 0.5%. Both figures met expectations.
Among news of note:
After ending yesterday at its highest level since late 2011, the euro continued climbing during the overnight session. At this time, the single currency hovers near 1.3955 versus the dollar.
In U.S. corporate news:
Gogo (GOGO 25.60, +1.72): +7.2% after beating on earnings and revenue.
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD 22.10, +2.22): +11.2% despite missing the Capital IQ consensus estimate by one cent on below-consensus revenue; however, the company boosted its repurchase program to $80 million.
Plug Power (PLUG 7.56, +0.76): +11.2% after reporting in-line earnings on above-consensus revenue.
Williams-Sonoma (WSM 62.80, +3.83): +6.5% after beating on earnings and revenue. The company issued below-consensus guidance.
Weekly initial claims, February retail sales, and February import/export prices will be released at 8:30 ET while January business inventories will cross the wires at 10:00 ET. The day's data will be topped off with the 14:00 ET release of the February Treasury budget.
6:50 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...-14815.98...-14.40...-0.10%. Hang Seng...21756.08...-145.90...-0.70%.
6:50 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6613.67...-6.90...-0.10%. DAX...9215.22...+26.50...+0.30%.
6:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.00
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By Glenys Sim Mar 13, 2014 9:08 PM ET
Gold climbed to the highest level in six months as escalating tension in Ukraine, before a vote in Crimea on breaking away to join Russia, and concern that China’s growth is faltering boosted demand for a store of value.
Bullion for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.5 percent to $1,376.64 an ounce, the highest level since Sept. 10, and was at $1,375.25 at 8:58 a.m. in Singapore, up for a fourth day. The metal is heading for a sixth weekly increase, the longest run since August 2011, as holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust increased to 813.3 metric tons yesterday, the most since Dec. 20.
Gold advanced 14 percent this year on demand for a haven as turmoil in Ukraine hurt emerging-market assets already weakened by cuts to U.S. stimulus, while growth slowed in China, the largest consumer. Data this week on China’s retail sales and industrial output missed estimates, while Crimea prepared for the March 16 vote. President Barack Obama and Chancellor Angela Merkel have warned the ballot has no international legitimacy.
“Gold is buoyed by what’s happening in Ukraine and increasing worries about a slowdown in China’s economy,” said Ethan Wai, a research analyst at Wing Fung Financial Group, a Hong Kong-based gold trader and refiner.
Bullion rebounded this year even as the U.S. Federal Reserve, which next meets March 18-19, announced reductions to bond buying at each of its past two meetings. Data yesterday showed sales at U.S. retailers rose in February for the first time in three months, buoying prospects for a recovery.
Gold for April delivery climbed as much as 0.3 percent to $1,377 an ounce on the Comex in New York, the highest intraday level for a most-active contract since Sept. 10. It traded at $1,375.40, rising for a fifth day.
Silver for immediate delivery added 0.4 percent to $21.2674 an ounce, poised to snap two weeks of losses. Platinum rose 0.1 percent to $1,478.13 an ounce, while palladium increased 0.2 percent $778.25 an ounce. Both metals are still heading for the first weekly declines in six weeks.
To contact the reporter on this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at gsim4@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net Jake Lloyd-Smith, Jarrett Banks
Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.
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