TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +8.70 points or $870 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=100&t=1118.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=148&t=1341

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Rise on Earnings Optimism and Jobs Data

Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks advanced, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index higher for a third straight day, as Bank of America Corp. rallied after swinging to a profit and jobless claims plunged to the lowest level in almost four years.

Big Banks Boost Stocks


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks advanced for a third straight session Thursday, rising to fresh six-month highs, thanks to solid gains in financial shares.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 46 points, or 0.4%, the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 6 points, or 0.5%, the Nasdaq composite (COMP) increased 19 points, or 0.7%. All three indexes closed at the highest levels since July.

A 2.4% spike in shares of Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) led the Dow higher. The Charlotte, N.C., bank posted fourth-quarter net income of $2 billion, reversing a year-earlier loss, and revenue that topped expectations

Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) posted a loss, but it wasn't as deep as analysts had expected, and shares of the bank surged 5.4%.

"The positive bank results were really unexpected," said Tyler Vernon, chief investment officer at Bilmore Capital. "The past six months have been a terrible environment for banks, but it looks like things are getting better, which is generally better for the economy, too."

Meanwhile, the government released an onslaught of economic data, including reports on housing, unemployment claims and inflation. Investors were encouraged as initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level in nearly four years, in another sign of improvement in the long-suffering labor market.

However, concerns that the sharp drop may be one-time blip rather than a start of a new trend kept a lid on gains, said Vernon.

"Traders are concerned about seasonality factors, and worried that claims could return to the status quo over the next couple of weeks, so they'll wait to see what happens," he said.


U.S. stocks advanced to finish at six-month highs Wednesday, as investors welcomed the International Monetary Fund plan to boost its bailout fund and contain Europe's debt crisis.

Investors remain focused on Europe's crisis this week. Early Thursday, Spanish and French bond auctions drew solid demand, calming some fears about Europe's ability to fund its debt.

Greek officials continued talks on Thursday with the group representing private-sector investors and banks in an attempt to reach an agreement on the size of the writedown these creditors will take. No accord has yet been announced, but the creditors' representative says negotiations will continue Friday.

* Video - PIMCO's Gross: Greece will default

World markets: European stocks finished higher. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) ticked up 0.7%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany rose 1% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) added 2%.

Asian markets ended notably higher. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) and the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong both climbed 1.3%, while Japan's Nikkei (N225) gained 1%.

Economy: The government released December data on inflation, building permits and housing starts, as well as its latest tally of weekly jobless claims.

The Labor Department reported that 352,000 people filed for initial unemployment benefits last week, down sharply from a revised reading of 402,000 claims in the previous week. It is also the fewest number of people filing for jobless claims since the week ending April 19, 2008.

* Is Romney's effective tax rate lower than yours?

Consumer prices held steady last month, largely due to declining gas prices. The government's key measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index, showed prices were virtually unchanged from November to December.

The index for items minus food and energy rose 0.1% in December, after rising 0.2% in November.

Housing starts fell 4.1% in December, to an annual rate of 657,000 units. Building permits slipped 0.1% to an annual rate of 679,000.

The Philadelphia Fed Index showed that manufacturing activity continued to improve in January in the mid-Atlantic area, rising to 7.3 from 6.8 in December.

Companies: Bank stocks gained traction in early trading, with shares of Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) rising 3.2%, a day after the firm reported earnings that beat estimates.

Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) both filed disappointing results in the past week, while Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) reported solid earnings.

Eastman Kodak (EK, Fortune 500) filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Thursday. Once a component of the Dow Jones industrial average, the company was recently trading around 39 cents a share.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH, Fortune 500) reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat forecasts.

Following Thursday's closing bell, some of the nation's biggest tech firms reported their corporate results, including Google (GOOG, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) and Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500).

Shares of Google tanked in after-hours trading, after the search giant reported quarterly profit and sales that rose from year-ago results but badly missed Wall Street's forecasts.

Shares of IBM rose in after-hours trading as the company began the Ginni Rometty era on a positive note, posting fourth-quarter earnings that beat estimates.

Microsoft and Intel shares also gained ground in after-hours trading after the companies posted solid fourth-quarter earnings.

* Video - Polaroid puts Kodak's failures in focus

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro and British pound, but edged higher against the Japanese yen.

Oil for February delivery slipped 20 cents to settle at $100.39 a barrel.

Gold futures for February delivery ticked down $5.40 to settle at $1,654.50 an ounce, losing momentum from earlier gains.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 1.99% from 1.90% late Wednesday.



Market Update

4:30 pm : The broad market notched a new multi-month high as stocks scored varied gains following a flurry of earnings reports and economic releases.

A strong finish to the prior session and decisive buying abroad helped position stocks for a positive open. Market participants also focused on better-than-expected earnings results from several widely-held names, including eBay (EBAY 31.51, +1.17), United Health (UNH 52.32, -1.62), Union Pacific (UNP 112.18, +2.36), Freeport McMoRan (FCX 44.37, -0.10), and Morgan Stanley (MS 18.28, +0.93). Bank of America (BAC 6.96, +0.16) came short of the bottom line consensus, but that was initially shrugged off since the diversified banking and financial services giant showed improvement in other areas. Declaration of bankruptcy by Eastman Kodak (EK 0.36, -0.20) came as little surprise to many.

Economic data was really rather mixed. December consumer prices were unchanged overall, but core prices inched up during by 0.1%. Both measures had been expected to increase by just 0.1%.

Weekly initial jobless claims dropped by 50,000 to 352,000, which is considerably less than the tally of 385,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com and the lowest tally since 2008.

Housing starts for December had been widely expected to hit an annualized rate of 673,000 units, but instead came in at a rate of 657,000, down from the prior month rate of 685,000 units.

The Philadelphia Fed Survey for January improved to 7.3 from 6.8 in the prior month, but that was still less than the reading of 10.0 that had been expected among many economists. Another bounce by the euro, which is widely regarded as a barometer of eurozone sentiment, provided stocks with a positive catalyst.

The euro's early retreat to the flat line was shadowed by the S&P 500, but both were able to rebound. By session's end the euro was resting on a 0.8% gain against the greenback and enters Friday with a week-to-date gain of 2.2%.

The broad market's path higher was relatively choppy and without much volume, but nonetheless it enabled the stock market to book its best close since this past summer. The S&P 500 is now up more than 20% from the 52-week intraday low set this past fall and only about 4% below the multi-year high that it set last spring.

Advancing Sectors: Industrials +0.9%, Financials +0.9%, Consumer Discretionary +0.9%, Tech +0.7%, Energy +0.4%, Consumer Staples +0.2%, Telecom +0.2%
Unchanged: Health Care
Declining Sectors: Utilities -0.8%DJ30 +45.03 NASDAQ +18.62 NQ100 +0.7% R2K +0.4% SP400 +0.8% SP500 +6.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1463/1.99 bln/1040 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1955/806 mln/1025

3:30 pm : Natural gas prices fell 6.1% to book a multi-year closing low of $2.32 per MMBtu. News that weekly natural gas inventories experienced a smaller-than-expected draw didn't help.

Crude oil prices surrendered early gains to settle the session with a 0.3% loss at $100.35 per barrel, despite news that weekly oil inventories experienced a draw down that was greater than what had been widely expected.

Precious metals remained mired near the neutral line for most of the session before gold settled with a 0.3% loss at $1654.60 per ounce and silver settled with a 0.3% gain at $30.55 per ounce. DJ30 +38.22 NASDAQ +18.47 SP500 +6.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1400/1.60 bln/1095 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1955/550 mln/1020

3:00 pm : With the final hour of the session at hand participants are preparing for the next round of earnings reports. On deck for tonight is American Express (AXP 50.74, +0.18), Google (GOOG 634.65, +1.74), IBM (IBM 180.48, -0.59), and Microsoft (MSFT 28.15, -0.08). Tomorrow brings conglomerate blue chip General Electric (GE 19.15, +0.12) and regional banks Fifth Third (FITB 13.56, -0.19) and Comerica (CMA 28.73, -0.68).DJ30 +20.36 NASDAQ +14.78 SP500 +4.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1400/1.43 bln/1085 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1980/495 mln/990

2:30 pm : Trade has been slogging along and without much volume this afternoon. Although low-volume trade has been a recurring theme of the past several weeks, its persistence is somewhat surprising since the flow economic data and earnings reports have picked up in the past few days. Then again, with stocks sitting at multi-month highs many participants may be opting for the sidelines so that they may safely monitor headlines before deciding to chase gains or take profits.DJ30 +28.87 NASDAQ +20.55 SP500 +6.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1475/1.33 bln/995 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2035/460 mln/925

2:00 pm : Choppy action this afternoon has stocks trading only narrowly beneath their best levels of the day. The positive tone has taken down the Volatility Index by nearly 6% so that it is below 20.0 for the first time since summer.

With stocks looking strong and volatility down, Treasuries continue to trade with weakness. That has lifted the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note closer to 2.0%, which is just a few basis points below its one-month high. DJ30 +28.98 NASDAQ +20.24 SP500 +5.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1465/1.22 bln/990 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2030/430 mln/915

1:30 pm : Stocks have reclaimed gains to return to their session highs. The move coincides with a dip by the dollar to a new session low -- the greenback now trails a collection of competing currencies by 0.4% and is headed for a weekly loss of about 1.6%.

Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Note continues to inch closer to the 2.00% line. It was last quoted at 1.99%. DJ30 +38.82 NASDAQ +22.92 SP500 +7.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1470/1.11 bln/980 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2015/395 mln/920

1:00 pm : The major equity averages are up with varied gains after stocks eased back from session highs that were set during a gradual, but choppy, climb through the first half of the session.

A tepid bid at the start of trade gave stocks modest gains in the early going. As was the case in the prior session, tech (+0.8%) and financials (+0.8%) offered support, but even their leadership was undermined by a retreat by the euro.

The euro has since rebounded to a 0.5% gain against the greenback, but its slide to the flat line came around the same time that participants were dealt a disappointing Philadelphia Fed Survey. The combination helped drive the S&P 500 down to the neutral line. Support there allowed the S&P 500 to rebound to a new multi-month high.

For the second consecutive session the Nasdaq is putting on an even stronger performance, even though heavyweight Google (GOOG 636.04, +3.13) is having a quiet session ahead of its quarterly report tonight. However, eBay (EBAY 31.56, +1.22) is up 4% following news of its upside earnings surprise.

Better-than-expected earnings from investment bank and brokerage outfit Morgan Stanley (MS 18.24, +0.89) has squeezed its shares higher to build on their prior session bounce. Even Bank of America (BAC 7.07, +0.26) is up sharply, despite disappointing bottom line results for the diversified bank and financial services giant. Although BAC shares are in strong shape this session, other blue chips have had a harder time garnering buying interest. That has left the Dow to trail its counterparts by a noticeable margin for the second straight session.

Defensive-oriented issues are also lagging for another day in a row. Disinterest in utilities stocks has left the sector to suffer a 0.7% loss. The sector has already fallen about 4% in 2012. That makes for a poor follow up to 2011, when the sector scored an annual gain on the order of 15%. No other sector came close to matching that.

Data today has been somewhat mixed. In addition to the Philly Fed Survey, participants were dealt a disappointing number for monthly housing starts. However, monthly consumer prices proved unsurprising by showing little-to-no change while weekly initial jobless claims made an unexpectedly sharp decline to their lowest level since 2008. DJ30 +19.33 NASDAQ +20.35 SP500 +5.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1445/1.00 bln/980 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1985/365 mln/960

12:30 pm : Stocks have pulled back from session highs, but the broad market continues to trade with a solid gain.

Meanwhile, Treasuries remain under steady, stiff pressure. The selling effort there has driven higher the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note so that it is within close reach of the 2.00% threshold. DJ30 +18.09 NASDAQ +21.06 SP500 +5.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1510/900 mln/905 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2065/330 mln/850

12:00 pm : Stocks continue to embark on a gradual climb that has the broad market at its best level since July. Perhaps even more impressive is that the stock market is up 22% from its 52-week intraday low, which was set in early October, and only about 4% below the multi-year high that it set last spring.DJ30 +34.47 NASDAQ +23.43 SP500 +6.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1480/800 mln/895 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2070/295 mln/820

11:30 am : Stocks have added modestly to their gains, making for new session highs. As was the case in the early going, financial and technology stocks continue to provide leadership. The two sectors are up 1.0% and 0.9%, respectively.

With a 0.8% loss, utilities stocks remain decidedly out of favor. They were the best performing sector of 2011; even if dividends are ignored the group still climbed about 15% for the year. However, in the first few weeks of 2012 the sector has fallen close to 4%, which comes in contrast to the 4% gained by the S&P 500 in the new year. DJ30 +27.24 NASDAQ +21.54 SP500 +6.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1355/640 mln/990 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1920/250 mln/930

11:00 am : A recent slip by stocks took the S&P 500 down to the flat line, but support there provided a floor for a rebound that has taken stocks to session highs.

For the second consecutive session the Nasdaq is outperforming its counterparts, especially the Dow. The Nasdaq's performance yesterday was helped considerably by semiconductor stocks, which are up nicely again today, but its latest advance is partly owed to leadership from shares of eBay (EBAY 31.69, +1.35), which are up sharply following an upside earnings surprise for the Internet retailer's latest quarter.

Separately, weekly oil inventories were just released. They showed a draw of 3.4 million barrels, which is greater than the 3.0 million barrel draw that had been broadly expected. Oil prices haven't really responded to the news, so they continue to trade with a near 1% gain at $101.50 per barrel. DJ30 +24.14 NASDAQ +17.83 SP500 +4.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1275/505 mln/1010 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1815/205 mln/985

10:35 am : Natural gas prices have extended their slide following news that weekly natural gas inventories had a draw of 87 bcf, which is less than the draw of 90 bcf that had been widely expected. Prices are now off by 4.0% to trade around $2.38 per MMBtu for a new multi-year low.

Oil prices were up more than 1% in early pit trade, but have since eased back so that they now trade with a 0.8% gain at $101.37 per barrel. Weekly oil inventory numbers will be released at the top of the hour.

Precious metals were mostly mixed earlier this morning, but have since eased lower. As such, gold prices are now down 0.2% to $1657.20 per ounce, while silver is off by a couple of cents at $30.52 per ounce. DJ30 +14.19 NASDAQ +13.55 SP500 +3.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1205/360 mln/1020 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1695/160 mln/1080

10:05 am : The Philadelphia Fed Survey for January was just posted. It improved to 7.3 from 6.8 in the prior month, but had been broadly expected to improve to 10.0.

The initial response to the Survey wasn't too negative, but market participants are beginning to apply increased pressure now that the euro has begun to lose ground against the greenback -- the euro is holding on to a gain of less than 0.2% as it trades at a new session low. DJ30 -8.37 NASDAQ +10.21 SP500 +1.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1225/153 mln/850 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1810/95 mln/860

09:45 am : The major equity averages are in positive territory, but their gains are only modest.

As was the case in the prior session, tech stocks and financial issues are displaying leadership. Both sectors are up 0.6%, which is better than what any other sector has accomplished thus far. In contrast, defensive-oriented issues are lagging for the second straight session, such that utilities (-0.4%), health care (-0.4%), and consumer staples (-0.3%) are all in negative territory. DJ30 +14.38 NASDAQ +12.56 SP500 +3.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.80. Stock futures suggest a solid start is in order for today's trade. That would help extend the prior session's advance, which took the broad market to its best level since this past summer. The positive tone has been partly perpetuated by buying abroad. Earnings results that generally exceeded what Wall Street had expected have supported the bid. Although Bank of America (BAC 7.22, +0.42) actually came short of the consensus earnings estimate, the stock has been bid sharply higher ahead of the open. Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices. With the exception of a disappointing housing starts number for December, economic data has been rather pleasing in that there weren't any surprises to consumer prices during December and weekly initial jobless claims made a surprisingly sharp drop to their lowest level since 2008. Still to come is the latest Philadelphia Fed Survey, which is scheduled for 10:00 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.30. The CRB Commodity Index is up 0.5% this morning, and on its way to a 1.4% weekly gain. Its advance comes despite a lackluster morning for precious metals. Specifically, gold prices are down fractionally to $1659.30 per ounce, while silver sits on a 0.3% gain at $30.64 per ounce. In the energy complex, natural gas prices are down a sharp 2.2% to $2.46 per MMBtu ahead of their weekly inventory report at 10:30 AM ET. Meanwhile, crude oil prices are up 1.4% to $102 per barrel in early pit trade. Weekly oil inventories, scheduled for today because of a holiday this past Monday, will be released at 11:00 AM ET.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.00. Stock futures have added modestly to their gains in recent minutes. Many traders are still digesting the latest dose of data.

During December overall consumer prices were unchanged from the prior month. They had been expected to make a 0.1% increase. Meanwhile, core prices inched up during December by 0.1% from the prior month. That was exactly what had been widely expected.

Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ended January 14 totaled 352,000, which is down by 50,000 from the prior week. What's more, not only is the latest initial claims count less than the tally of 385,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com, but it is also the lowest initial claims level since 2008.

Housing starts for December were also recently released. They hit an annualized rate of 657,000, which is down from the prior month rate of 685,000 units and less than the rate of 673,000 units that had been generally expected among economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.00. Premarket participants have offered a modest bid to stock futures so that the major equity averages are expected to extend the multi-month highs that they set in the prior session. The positive tone has been perpetuated by gains abroad and renewed strength in the euro, which is up another 0.4% against the greenback today.

Better-than-expected bottom line results from the likes of eBay (EBAY 31.27, +0.93), United Health (UNH 54.54, +0.60), and Morgan Stanley (MS 18.28, +0.93) have also stirred a positive response among early morning participants. Even an earnings miss by Bank of America (BAC 7.23, +0.43) is being shrugged off. Outside of earnings announcements, Eastman Kodak (EK 0.39, -0.17) has declared bankruptcy. Note: all ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

A flurry of economic data is due at the bottom of the hour. The list features monthly consumer price numbers, monthly housing starts, and weekly initial jobless claims. They are followed by the latest Philadelphia Fed Survey at 10:00 AM ET. Also on the calendar are weekly natural gas inventories at 10:30 AM ET then weekly oil inventories at 11:00 AM ET.

06:23 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.00.

06:23 am : Nikkei...8639.68...+89.10...+1.00%. Hang Seng...19942.95...+256.00...+1.30%.

06:23 am : FTSE...5715.70...+13.30...+0.20%. DAX...6368.58...+14.10...+0.20%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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