TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +32.80 points or $3280.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=91&t=907.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=138&t=1058

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

CNNMoney.com - Triple-Digit Dow Surge Ahead Of Greek Vote

click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Hibah Yousuf and Ken Sweet June 21, 2011: 4:47 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks posted solid advances on Tuesday, with technology shares leading gains, as investors awaited the confidence vote for Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou later tonight.

A smaller-than-expected decline in existing home sales also helped lift markets.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 110 points, or 0.9%, with 26 of the blue-chip index's 30 components moving higher.

Aloca (AA, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) and DuPont (DD, Fortune 500) led the gains, with shares up more than 3%. Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500) was the biggest laggard, down roughly 1%.

The S&P 500 (SPX) added 17 points, or 1.3%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) jumped 58 points, or 2.2%.

The Nasdaq was led higher by Research in Motion (RIMM), whose shares surged in the last hour of trading on heavy volume, closing up more than 10%. The move comes less than a week after the BlackBerry maker's shares plunged more than 20% after missing estimates and announcing layoffs.

Whole Foods Market (WFM) was also a top performer on both the S&P and Nasdaq. The grocer's shares spiked more than 6% one day after its rating and price target were raised by BMO Capital Markets.

Traders remain heavily focused on Greece's vote of confidence, to be held by the Greek parliament after the U.S. markets close. The vote is expected to determine whether Papandreou's government has the strength to avoid a default and secure a rescue package.

* Default: A big, fat Greek disappointment?

"There's a lot riding on this vote," said Marc Pado, chief investment strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald. "Greece is only a small part of the European debt crisis, particularly since banks across Europe hold a lot of the debt."

Investors expect Papandreou to win the vote, said David Levy, portfolio manager at Kenjol Capital Management. He thinks the markets will likely enjoy a relief rally.

"Greece is not coming off the front pages anytime soon," Levy said. "But seeing how officials handle the Greek situation will serve as a guide for how other countries that come into trouble down the road will be dealt with, and that gives investors some certainty."

Investors are also looking ahead to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting Wednesday afternoon.

* QE3 ain't coming - StockTwits

"Everyone knows QE2 is ending later this month, and that we're not getting a QE3, but investors will be looking for some guidance from the Fed on where to go from here," Levy said.

U.S. stocks managed gains Monday, even as investors remained cautious about Greece's debt crisis.

But those gains were limited as investors grappled with the latest news on Greece. European finance ministers said Monday that the country won't receive fresh loans until mid-July.

World markets: European stocks closed higher ahead of the vote. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1.4%, the DAX in Germany jumped 1.9% and France's CAC 40 added 2%.

Asian markets ended the session higher. The Shanghai Composite climbed nearly 1%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong gained 1.2% and Japan's Nikkei rose 1.1%.

Economy: Existing home sales fell 3.8% to an annualized rate of 4.81 million in May, from a rate of 5 million in April, according to the National Association of Realtors. The figure was better than the 4.79 million pace economists had forecast.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee starts its two-day meeting Tuesday. The central bank's interest rate decision will be announced on Wednesday.

* Sino-Forest fans push back with SEC hoax

Companies: JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500) agreed to pay $154 million in fines to the Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday on charges that it mislead investors regarding mortgage-backed securities. Shares rose 1%.

The board of Best Buy Inc. (BBY, Fortune 500) board authorized a new $5 billion share repurchase program to replace its previous $5.5 billion share repurchase program. Shares of the company rose 3%.

Shares of Renren (RENN) slipped 5% even as the Chinese social-networking site reported a narrower loss in the first quarter, with sales up 47%.

Drugstore chain Walgreens (WAG, Fortune 500) reported third-quarter results before the opening bell that beat expectations, with record earnings and revenue.

Separately, the company announced that contract renewal negotiations with pharmacy benefit manager Express Scripts (ESRX, Fortune 500) have been unsuccessful, so it will no longer fill prescriptions using Express Scripts beginning in 2012. Shares of Walgreens fell 4%, while shares of Express Scripts edged higher.

* Video - Walgreens ends deal with Express Scripts

Shares of Barnes & Noble (BKS, Fortune 500) fell more than 2% after the bookseller posted a wider-than-expected loss of $59.4 million for its fiscal fourth quarter and sales that missed expectations. The company said it is still reviewing the $1 billion buyout bid from Liberty Media.

Media software giant Adobe (ADBE) said it earned an adjusted profit of 55 cents a share, beating analysts' estimates of earnings of 51 cents a share. Shares were down 2% in afterhours trading, however.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar lost ground against the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound.

Oil for July delivery settled up 14 cents to $93.40 a barrel.

The recent decline in oil prices will provide an additional and needed boost to the U.S. economy once those lower oil prices are passed along to consumers, Cantor Fitzgerald's Pado said. He expects that to happen in a few weeks.

Gold futures for August delivery rose $4.40 to $1,546.40 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury edged lower, pushing the yield up to 3% from 2.96% late Monday.



Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:20 pm : Equities put together a fourth straight day of gains, with a strong +1.3% gain for the S&P 500 in today's session. U.S. stocks started the day higher following a bounce in overseas markets, which have been under pressure recently amid concerns about the fiscal future of Greece. Greece's troubles are far from resolved, but tonight's (5:00 ET) vote of confidence for the country's prime minister is expected to turn out positively. A positive vote would symbolize agreement that progress must be made toward austerity.

Today's strongest sectors include Materials (+2.6%), Energy (+2.0%) and Consumer Discretionary (+2.0%) -- sectors that have performed poorly amid the recent market pullback. The strength in energy comes even though oil prices have surrendered early gains to trade in the red with a modest loss... The dollar has been weak for virtually the entire session, and was recently quoted with a 0.5% loss against a collection of competing currencies. Its weakness comes as Greece looks to take the first steps toward solving its fiscal woes, but precedes the latest FOMC policy statement, which will be posted tomorrow afternoon.

Looking at individual items of interest, Walgreens (WAG 43.28 -1.90) finished the day down 4% after reporting better than expected earnings and in-line revenues, but noting that it is planning to move forward without Express Scripts (ESRX 54.99 +0.20) pharmacy provider network in 2012. After losing more than 6% in the pre-market, ESRX finished the day flat.

After the close, Jabil Circuit (JBL 18.85 +0.59) reported Q3 (May) earnings of $0.58 per share, on revenues that rose 22.3% year/year to $4.23 billion. JBL issued guidance for Q4 EPS of $0.52-0.60, and revs of $4.1-4.3 billion. Additionally, JBL authorized a repurchase for up to $200 million worth of shares. Adobe Systems (ADBE 32.01 +1.06) reported Q2 EPS of $0.55 and revs $1.02 billion, and issued in-line Q3 guidance for EPS of $0.50-0.56 and revenues of $1.00-1.05 billion.

Tomorrow before the open FedEx (FDX 89.13 +1.63) is scheduled to report Q4 results.DJ30 +109.63 NASDAQ +57.63 SP500 +17.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2096/1.7 bln/551 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2611/679 mln/452

3:30 pm : Commodities markets continued to eye events in Greece, ahead of tonight's no-confidence vote, and the pending reaction in the euro and the dollar. August gold finished higher by 0.2% to $1545.30 per ounce, while July silver gained 0.1% to end at $36.41 per ounce. Both metals gains came in a flight to safety ahead of that vote.

August crude oil, the new front month, finished by 0.5% to $94.14 per ounce. Crude gave back overnight gains to trade into negative territory in mid-morning trade. It put in lows at $92.88, but managed to bounce off those lows to finish just above the flat line with modest gains. Events in Europe, coupled with commentary from the IMF on Spain and crude oil's recent downward trend, all weighed on crude today. July natural gas finished higher by 1.6% to $4.39 per MMBtu. It put in session highs at $4.41 in afternoon trade, but pulled back from those highs heading into the close. DJ30 +116.90 NASDAQ +54.52 SP500 +17.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2009/1.5 bln/552 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2566/588.6 mln/456

3:00 pm : Stocks recently added to their gains to set a new session high. The Nasdaq is now up more than 2%, but the Dow continues to trade with a gain of only half that.

Even though strength among equities is so pronounced this session, Treasuries really haven't been subjected to much selling pressure. In fact, the benchmark 10-year Note is down about 10 ticks. In turn, its yield remains fractionally below 3.00%. Earlier today the Note's yield did cross over that mark for a moment, however.

Both stock and fixed income traders wil be closely listening to the FOMC's policy statement tomorrow for cues on how to handle their holdings in light of the latest macro assessment and plans for monetary policy. DJ30 +131.05 NASDAQ +57.08 SP500 +18.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2014/1.31 bln/527 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2594/509 mln/424

2:30 pm : Stocks are back at their best levels of the day. The move comes as the market heads into the final 90 minutes of the trading session.

Materials stocks continue to trade ahead of every other major sector. The group's 2.4% gain is one of its best performances of the past couple of months. Still, some investors are skeptical of the sector because its correlation to broad economic cycles makes it susceptible to another slip in macro activity. Investors should get some insight into the health of the economy from the latest FOMC policy statement, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow afternoon. DJ30 +113.45 NASDAQ +51.16 SP500 +16.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1939/1.20 bln/586 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2551/465 mln/456

2:00 pm : Ultra defensive utilities stocks have lacked support all session. As such, the Dow Jones Utility Average is up less than 0.2% while the S&P 500 Utilities Sector is up just 0.1%.

Consumer staples stocks are in even worse shape. As a group, they are down 0.2%.

General weakness among defensive-oriented issues comes as market participants show a willingness to rotate into riskier assets with today's rally. Favor for risk has helped stoke shares of cyclical plays, like materials stocks (+2.3%), energy stocks (+1.7%), and tech stocks (+1.7%). DJ30 +93.09 NASDAQ +46.56 SP500 +14.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1875/1.11 bln/627 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2495/426 mln/493

1:30 pm : The Dow has drifted off of its session high. Although its declining issues are limited to just Boeing (BA 74.16, -0.36), Procter & Gamble (PG 64.79, -0.29), and United Tech (UTX 85.37, -0.18), leadership among blue chips has been relatively limited. In turn, the Dow continues to trade with a gain that is less than half of what the Nasdaq has achieved.DJ30 +83.52 NASDAQ +46.98 SP500 +13.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1900/1.04 bln/616 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2490/395 mln/477

1:00 pm : The major market averages are up sharply this session. The bounce comes on the back of renewed strength among tech stocks and natural resource plays.

Buying this morning was bolstered by big gains abroad, where many traders have spent recent sessions selling amid concerns about the fiscal future of Greece. Greece's troubles have yet to be remedied, but some clarity is expected to come when the country's prime minister is put up to a vote of confidence.

Brushing aside concerns about Greece opened the door for buying, but the emergence of tech and natural resource stocks as market leaders has been the biggest driver of this session's advance. Favor for natural resource plays has the materials sector up more than 2%. In a similar vein, energy stocks are collectively up 1.6%, even though oil prices have surrendered early gains to trade in the red with a modest loss.

Tech, the largest sector by market weight, has provided a big boost to the broad market. The sector's near 2% gain comes after it had spent the past several weeks listlessly dragging along. In fact, just yesterday the sector set a 2011 low.

The dollar has been weak for virtually the entire session, and was recently quoted with a 0.5% loss against a collection of competing currencies. Its weakness comes as Greece looks to take the first steps toward solving its fiscal woes, but precedes the latest FOMC policy statement, which will be posted tomorrow afternoon. DJ30 +102.92 NASDAQ +49.59 SP500 +15.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1915/365 mln/582 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2547/970 mln/421

12:30 pm : The Dollar Index has descended deeper into negative territory. It is now down 0.5%, which makes for a fresh session low. The dollar's decline has come chiefly against the euro, the yen, and the sterling pound.

The dollar's decline today comes after it had traded with strength in recent days. The shift in sentiment around the dollar precedes a vote of confidence for the prime minister of Greece, which has has been in focus for its social, political, and fiscal instability. Recent weakness in the dollar also comes ahead of the FOMC's latest policy statement. DJ30 +104.98 NASDAQ +47.79 SP500 +15.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1924/870 mln/552 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2527/330 mln/433

12:00 pm : Stocks continue to sport rich gains as they trade near session highs. Oil prices have extended a recent reversal into the red, however; oil prices are now down 0.4% to $93.30 per barrel.

Even though oil prices are now in the red, the stock market's strength has helped the energy sector maintain its heady gain. As a group, energy stocks are up 1.6%. Tesoro Corp (TSO 21.94, +0.93) is currently the top performer in the energy space. DJ30 +102.14 NASDAQ +48.64 SP500 +16.00 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1918/530 NYSE Adv/Dec 2537/408

11:30 am : Stocks are up to fresh session highs. The climb began after some slight wavering in the first few minutes of trade, but ever since the march higher has been a steady ascent.

Materials stocks continue to extend their push higher -- the sector is now up 2.3%. Among materials plays, International Paper (IP 28.77, +1.33) and Eastman Chemical (EMN 100.60, +4.13) are top performers. Both of them currently sport gains in excess of 4%. Bemis (BMS 31.86, -0.12) is one of the few materials-related issues that has failed to find higher ground. DJ30 +101.50 NASDAQ +49.07 SP500 +16.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1944/637 mln/504 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2516/240 mln/398

11:00 am : Newfound strength in the tech sector has really charged up the Nasdaq, which is getting closer to a gain of 2%. Just last week the tech-rich Nasdaq was at its lowest level in six months. Heavyweights like Apple (AAPL 323.31, +7.99) have been the biggest drivers of the move.

Strength in the broader equity market has the S&P 500 up a heady 1%. Its advance comes without help from defensive-oriented plays. Among traditionally defensive issues, consumer staples stocks are down 0.3%, utilities are flat, and health care stocks are up just 0.3%. DJ30 +76.82 NASDAQ +44.15 SP500 +13.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1900/475 mln/505 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2423/183 mln/436

10:30 am : The dollar index remains lower, which is helping provide broad-based strength in the commodities complex this morning. Soft commodities are some of the best performers with cotton showing gains of 2.4% and cocoa up 2.3%.

Crude oil has been in positive territory all morning, but never broke the $95 level. The energy component hit $94.90/barrel (continuous contract) about 40 minutes before floor trading began and that remains the current high for the day. In current activity, crude is up 1.1% at $94.64/barrel.

Natural gas has been higher all session so far as well. In recent trade, it extended gains to new session highs of $4.39/MMBtu and is now 1.4% higher at $4.38/MMBtu.

Gold and silver staged a small rally right around the time the stock market opened. Gold pushed to new session highs of $1546.70/oz. and silver ran higher to around $36.37/oz. Gold is currently 0.3% higher at $1547.00/oz. while silver is up 1.0% at $36.44/oz.DJ30 +68.31 NASDAQ +37.90 SP500 +11.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1827/330.7 mln/523 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2322/130.9 mln/455

10:05 am : Stocks have added to early gains. In turn, the major equity averages are all up solidly. The Nasdaq has made the most impressive push higher; it is now up 1% as tech stocks attract support after a sluggish start. A sudden flurry of buying among tech issues has the sector up 1%.

Existing home sales for May were just posted. They hit an annualized rate of 4.81 million units, which is on par with the 4.79 million unit rate that had been expected among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. However, the pace for May is slower than the rate of 5.00 million units that had been recorded for April. DJ30 +71.11 NASDAQ +30.30 SP500 +10.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1752/159 mln/498 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2297/69 mln/449

09:45 am : Natural resource plays have sprinted out to an impressive lead over the broad market, which is currently up with a solid gain of its own. Strength in the materials space has the sector up 1.2%. As for energy stocks, they are up 1.1%, as a group.

Meanwhile, financials and tech stocks continue to struggle to attract meaningful support. In turn, both sectors are up with gains of only 0.3%. The two, which are frequently regarded as broad market drivers for their relative market weight and pervasiveness in the economy, have mostly traded in lackluster fashion in recent weeks. DJ30 +35.54 NASDAQ +14.15 SP500 +5.82 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1543/604 NYSE Adv/Dec 2210/451

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.10. Stock futures suggest that the major equity averages are looking to add to the gains that they scored in the prior session. Strength has been helped by an improved tone abroad, where the major market averages of both Europe and Asia have either already booked or are headed for gains on the order of 1%. There haven't been any new headlines or catalysts to account for the improved mood among participants. In fact, Walgreen Co (WAG) is one relatively widely held name that posted quarterly results this morning. The company's bottom line was actually better than expected, but the stock has encountered sharp selling pressure ahead of the open. The company announced that contract renewal negotiations with Express Scripts (ESRX) have been unsuccessful. The economic calendar is light today; it features only the latest in existing home sales (10:00 AM ET).

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.10. Europe's major bourses managed to pare losses in the prior session as the tone among participants improved after some early concern about the fiscal future of Greece. The tone of trade has further improved today, such that the EuroStoxx 50 is up a strong 0.7%. Greece's Athex 20 is currently up more than 4% ahead of a vote of confidence for the country's prime minister. In Germany, the DAX has advanced to a 0.9% gain, even though the country's latest ZEW Survey made a sharp drop to -9.0 after it had been at 3.1 in May. Financial issues Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank (DB) are two of the top performers in the German bourse. Henkel AG and Fresenius SE are a couple of names in a handful of components that have had a hard time following the rest of the market higher. In France, the CAC has put together a 1.2% gain as all 40 of its components sport gains. Schneider Electric is the top performing name by percent gained, while Pernod Ricard clings to a fractional gain. Britain's FTSE is presently up 0.9%. Strength is broad there, but metals and mining plays like Xstrata, Rio Tinto (RIO), and Anglo American are providing some of the strongest leadership. Consumer staples plays SABMiller PLC and Imperial Tobacco are on the short list of declining issues.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei put together a 1.1% gain during overnight action. Kansai Electric Power and Chubu Electric Power were top performers, but Tokyo Electric Power fell sharply. TDK Corp was also a key contributor to overall advance. Japan's All-Industry Activity Index for April fell 1.5% after it had dropped 6.4% in the prior month. Hong Kong's Hang Seng swung to a 1.2% gain after it had logged a nine-month low in the prior session. Natural resource plays helped drive the rebound. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite closed its latest round of trade with a 1.0% gain. The move marked a moment of relief in an otherwise multi-month descent.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.90. Commodities are attracting broad buying interest this morning. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is up 0.6%. Oil is currently a top performer in the commodity complex; the energy component was last quoted with a 1.3% gain at $94.80 per barrel. Natural gas prices are up a sharp 1.1% to $4.37 per MMBtu. As for precious metals, gold prices are up a tepid 0.2% to $1544.40 per ounce, but silver prices are up 0.4% to $36.23 per ounce.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.10. An improved mood abroad has provided a positive backdrop to premarket trade. In turn, stock futures suggest that a positive start to today's session is in order. Amid the action, the dollar is down moderately against the euro, which was last quoted with a 0.2% gain at $1.436 ahead of a vote of confidence for Greece's prime minister. The only item on the economic calendar is the latest monthly home sales tally. However, today also marks the start of the latest FOMC policy meeting, which culminates tomorrow with the latest statement on monetary policy.

06:35 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.40.

06:34 am : Nikkei...9459.66...+105.30...+1.10%. Hang Seng...21850.59...+251.10...+1.20%.

06:34 am : FTSE...5724.29...+30.90...+0.50%. DAX...7187.55...+37.30...+0.50%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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