TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

click on the above image to view today's trading summary


Trade Performance for Today: +10.50 points or $1050.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=87&t=760. However, be advised that I'm frequently testing new trade signal methods or new trade management rules (e.g. stop/loss, trailing stops, profit targets, order types, time frames, workstation templates et cetera) after entry of existing profitable trade signal methods whenever market conditions change. Thus, adapting is a critical variable to my consistent profits along with preventing me from becoming complacent in my trading...this helps avoid trading account drawdowns.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=131&t=921

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Bloomberg (Youtube) - Stocks Advance as Earnings Outweigh Chinese Lending Curb

CNNMoney.com - Stocks Rise Ahead Of Long Holiday Weekend

click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Ken Sweet, contributing writer
February 18, 2011: 4:52 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks closed higher Friday, with the Dow rising to a two-year high as the two-day meeting of the G-20 finance ministers kicked off in France.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 73 points, or 0.6%, to finish at 12,391. The S&P 500 (SPX) added 2.6 points, or 0.2%, to reach 1,343 ; and the Nasdaq (COMP) rose 2.4 points, or 0.1%, to 2,834. All three indexes closed up 1% for the week.

With the exception of the Dow, stocks saw modest movement as Wall Street watched the two-day G-20 session. Markets are closed Monday for the U.S. holiday.

Leading the Dow higher, shares of Caterpillar closed up 2%, while shares of Alcoa fell 1.4%. Among the S&P 500, Intuit (INTU), maker of TurboTax, saw its shares rise 8% after issuing earnings guidance above analysts' estimates.

While investors said they do not expect any earth-shattering news out of this weekend's G-20 meeting, they are hoping for some clarity from emerging market economies on the issue of inflation.

Ahead of the G-20 meeting, China's central bank said it will raise the reserve requirement ratio for the nation's banks by half a percentage point, marking the second increase so far this year. The government has hiked the reserve requirement six times in 2010, as the country attempts to combat inflation.

"You cannot ignore the fact that commodities have been the story of 2011," said Kevin Mahn, chief investment officer with Hennion & Walsh. "We need to hear what the emerging market economiies are going to do to combat this growing problem."

Crude oil for April delivery climbed over $90-a-barrel mark earlier in the day, following numerous news reports that the situation in Bahrain -- a oil-rich country near Saudi Arabia -- was quickly deteriorating.

U.S. stocks ended at fresh multi-year highs Thursday, as investors focused on an upbeat manufacturing report and looked past indications that inflation is heating up.

G20: The two-day G-20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers got under way in Paris.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke on a panel of central bankers, including the heads of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the People's Bank of China.

Bernanke said unbalanced flows of money between nations is again posing a risk to the global economy and financial stability, adding that the uneven flow of funds into the United States from 2003 to 2007 was one of the key factors that led to the meltdown in financial markets in 2008.

World markets: European stocks closed mixed. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.1%, the DAX in Germany was up 0.3% and France's CAC 40 rose 0.1%.

China's central bank will raise the reserve requirement ratio for the nation's banks by half a percentage point, marking the second increase so far this year. The government hiked the reserve requirement six times in 2010, as the country attempts to combat inflation.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite stumbled 0.9%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong gained almost 1.3% and Japan's Nikkei ticked up about 0.1%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained strength against the euro and the Japanese yen, but fell versus the British pound.

Oil for April delivery gained 98 cents to $89.71 a barrel after being up as much as 2% earlier in the day

Gold futures for April delivery rose $3.50 to $1,388.60 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 3.62% from 3.57% late Thursday.



Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Afternoon volatility threatened to undo modest gains, but stocks fought through the selling to end the day in positive ground.

An absence of trading catalysts made for sluggish trade in the early going. The only major news item was China's overnight announcement that it will raise its Reserve Requirement Ratio by another 50 basis points. Concern about how that rate hike might stymie global growth were brushed aside after some initial selling.

Left to their own volition, stocks eventually resumed their upward climb. Broad market gains never became anything more than modest, but they were still enough to set new two-year highs. Sellers showed some life in the second half of the session, though. The Dow only flinched, but both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell into the red before a flurry of buying in the final few minutes made for a positive finish. That helped the broad market secure its third straight weekly gain.

The expiration of monthly options likely played a part in afternoon volatility, although none of the market's moves was overly dramatic. Trading volume was also stoked by the expiration of options. As such, share volume on the NYSE surpassed 1 billion for only the second time this month. It also exceeded its 200-day average of 1.12 billion shares.

As a reminder, U.S. bond and equity markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Presidents Day.

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+0.6%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.4%), Industrials (+0.3%), Health Care (+0.3%), Consumer Staples (+0.2%), Financial (+0.2%), Telecom (+0.1%)
Unchanged: Utilities
Declining Sectors: Materials (-1.0%), Tech (-0.1%) DJ30 +73.11 NASDAQ +2.37 NQ100 -0.2% R2K +0.1% SP400 +0.1% SP500 +2.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1345/2.11 bln/1283 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1718/1.16 bln/1272

3:35 pm : Precious metals gained 1.5% today, led by a 2.9% surge in March silver, which finished at $32.52 per ounce. It traded to a fresh ~31 yr high at $32.87 per ounce earlier in the session. April gold ended up 0.3% to $1389.20 per ounce. It notched a new 5 week high at $1392.60. Both metals rallied today on weakness in the dollar as well as concerns about the events unfolding in the Middle East. They pulled back from their respective highs heading into the close of pit trade.

March crude oil finished lower by 0.1% to $86.20. Prices moved higher on reports that Egypt would allow passage of the Iranian war ships through the Suez, escalating violence in Bahrain, and a weaker dollar. After trading to highs, at $87.88, prices began pulling back toward the unchanged mark, where they closed. The WTI-Brent spread remained above -13.00 points, at -12.79. March natural gas finished higher by 0.1% to $3.88 per MMBtu.

Grains shed 2.2%, the largest decliner of the group. May wheat fell 3.1% to end at $8.56 per bushel, while May soybeans dropped 2.9% to $13.75 per bushel. DJ30 +50.29 NASDAQ -3.37 SP500 -0.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1281/1.7 bln/1340 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1562/821.4 mln/1399

3:00 pm : The stock market enters this week's final hour flat, but on pace for a weekly gain of about 0.8%, which would be the stock market's third straight weekly gain.

Aside from a flurry of selling this afternoon's, overall action has been relativley dull today. Despite that, share volume has been robust as participants exercise their monthly options prior to expiration today.

As a reminder, U.S. bond and equity markets will be closed Monday in observance of Presidents Day. DJ30 +51.35 NASDAQ -1.32 SP500 +0.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1228/1.56 bln/1357 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1510/764 mln/1435

2:30 pm : Sellers have redoubled their efforts in recent trade. Their effort has taken the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq into negative territory, where they now trade with modest losses. Meanwhile, the Dow, though still in positive territory, is now at an afternoon low.

Materials stocks have been hit especially hard in the recent selling effort. The sector is now down 1.3%, which is more than quardruple the loss of the next worst performing sector (tech, -0.3%). Energy and consumer staples, both up 0.1%, make up the only two sectors that are still in positive territory. DJ30 +33.72 NASDAQ -6.13 SP500 -1.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1344/1.44 bln/1252 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1664/709 mln/1270

2:00 pm : A recent flurry of selling stole gains from the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, but the two have started to recover. The Dow made only a modest move lower, so it continues to sport a solid gain.

The dollar was also hit with some recent selling. In turn, the greenback is now at a session low, trailing a collection of competing currencies by 0.5%. Most of the dollar's drop is owed to strength in the euro, yen, and British pound, which are up 0.7%, 0.3%, and 0.5%, respectively, against the greenback.DJ30 +46.81 NASDAQ +0.88 SP500 +1.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1335/1.34 bln/1244 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1635/671 mln/1297

1:30 pm : Recent selling has cut into the gains of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite. The Dow has managed to remain near its session high, though.

Blue chips Caterpillar (CAT 105.40, +2.04), Boeing (BA 73.41, +1.17), and Chevron (CVX 98.35, +1.18) are leaders in the Dow. Microsoft (MSFT 27.02, -0.19) has been a laggard among blue chips, however. Shares of MSFT have also hampered the Nasdaq, as has Apple (AAPL 352.81, -5.48). Campbell Soup (CPB 33.41, -1.54) has been a source of weakness for the S&P 500 after the company came short of the consensus earnings estimate and lowered its guidance. DJ30 +50.71 NASDAQ +2.64 SP500 +1.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1442/1.21 bln/1108 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1741/625 mln/1166

1:00 pm : Stocks are up with modest gains after a sluggish start, but overall action has been rather dull in the absence of data and any meaningful corporate announcements. That has suppressed volatility, even though today is an options expiration session.

Beyond word of another reserve requirement increase in China, there really wasn't much news this morning. Concern that the reserve requirement increase could stymie economic growth caused some selling overnight, but stock futures recovered by the time the session opened.

Still, the market lacked direction for the first hour. Once participants settled in, though, stocks gradually resumed their upward push, which has taken the major equity averages to modest gains.

For the second straight session energy stocks are out in front. The sector currently sports a 0.5% gain. Some of that has been helped by higher oil prices, which were most recently quoted with a 0.8% gain at $87.05 per barrel.

Among the other widely tracked commodities, silver is soaring this sessin. The precious metal posted a 30-year high of $32.87 per ounce earlier today. It is currently up 3.9% at $32.80 per ounce.

Although broad market action has been a bit of a bore today, share volume is up sharply. That's the result of today's monthly options expiration. DJ30 +53.25 NASDAQ +7.19 SP500 +2.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1451/1.12 bln/1068 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1789/588 mln/1119

12:30 pm : The overall equity market continues to gradually add to its gain. Strength has become relatively broad, given that materials stocks (-0.1%) and utilities stocks (-0.2%) make up the only two sectors that have yet to push into positive territory.

Even though stocks are at session highs, Treasuries have made a bit of a rebound in recent trade. The move has taken the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note back below 3.60%. DJ30 +55.93 NASDAQ +8.74 SP500 +3.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1441/1.02 bln/1052 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1814/557 mln/1075

12:00 pm : Shares of H&R Block (HRB 14.43, +0.21) have attracted strong support heading into tax season. The stock is up 1.5% this session and on pace for a weekly gain of more than 9%. The company's latest quarterly results are scheduled to be released March 9.

In contrast, building materials play Masco (MAS 13.24, +0.04) is down more than 6% this week. That makes it one of this week's worst performing plays in the S&P 500. However, today the stock is up modestly following news of an ammendment to its credit agreement. DJ30 +46.43 NASDAQ +7.45 SP500 +2.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1378/925 mln/1108 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1743/515 mln/1134

11:30 am : Stocks have fought through a mild flurry of selling to trade at fresh session highs. Overall gains remain quite modest, though.

For the second straight session financials have traded as relative laggards. Both diversified banks (-0.5%) and consumer finance (-0.5%) plays continue to hamper the sector. Investment banks and brokerages (+0.5%) have been a source of support, however.

Outside of stocks, silver continues to climb. It now sports a 2.8% gain at $32.45 per ounce, a 30-year high. Silver's session high coincides with a dip by the dollar to a 0.3% loss, a fresh session low. DJ30 +40.30 NASDAQ +7.50 SP500 +2.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1296/798 mln/1146 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1589/476 mln/1237

11:00 am : The major equity averages recently made a modest move out of their recent trading ranges, but they have started to pull back in more current action.

Energy stocks have sustained a strong upward push, though. The sector was actually an early laggard, but it is now up to a 0.4% gain. Part of that is owed to a run up in oil prices, which now stand at $87.50 per barrel with a a 1.3% gain. Oil prices were as high as $87.62 per barrel earlier this morning.

Meanwhile, materials stocks are down 0.3%, which makes them this morning's worst performing sector. Materials stocks actually outperformed in the prior session, when they advanced almost 1%. DJ30 +23.58 NASDAQ +2.35 SP500 +0.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1271/665 mln/1146 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1595/425 mln/1198

10:30 am : The CRB Commodity Index is now up 0.3%, which puts it at a session high and on pace for a 1.4% weekly gain.

Oil prices are up an impressive 0.9% to $87.17 per barrel. Natural gas prices have pulled back in recent trade so that they are now up just 0.1% at $3.87 per MMBtu.

As for precious metals, gold prices are down fractionally at $1383.90 per ounce, but silver has ascended to a 1.5% gain at $32.03 per ounce, which is just shy of the 30-year high of the $32.11 per ounce that was set minutes ago.

Cotton futures prices are limit down after eclipsing the $2 per pound threshold for the first time every yesterday. The commodity was last quoted at $1.95 per pound. DJ30 +17.26 NASDAQ +0.85 SP500 +0.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1149/496 mln/1192 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1390/373 mln/1336

10:00 am : Stocks continue to chop along listlessly. That has left all three of the major equity averages to hug the neutral line.

Even though this session marks the expiration of monthly options, an even that can induce both trading volume and volatility, the Volatility Index is down almost 6%. That puts the Volatility Index only slightly above the multi-year low that it set this past Monday.

Share volume has been given a nice boost by options expirations, however. More than 300 million shares have already traded hands on the NYSE.

Advancing Sectors: Health Care (+0.2%), Industrials (+0.2%), Utilities (+0.1%), Tech (+0.1%), Energy (+0.1%)
Unchanged: Consumer Discretionary, Financial
Declining Sectors: Materials (-0.3%), Telecom (-0.2%), Consumer Staples (-0.2%)DJ30 +19.57 NASDAQ +1.80 SP500 +0.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1156/292 mln/1058 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1356/305 mln/1254

09:45 am : Stocks are chopping around without much direction this morning. The flat action comes amid a lack of trading catalysts like domestic data or major corporate news.

Outside of stocks, the dollar is down slightly against a basket of competing currencies.

The Dollar Index is down 0.7% week to date. Treasuries are under modest pressure after they scored decent gains during the prior session. Their slip this morning has the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note back above 3.60%. DJ30 +7.84 NASDAQ +1.34 SP500 -0.90

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.30. Early this morning stock futures slipped in response to news that China's latest reserve requirement hike could carry implications for the country's growth and, in turn, the global economic recovery. However, recognition that overall domestic data continues to improve and that the stock market has been determined to overcome just about any kind of setback have helped stir support ahead of the open. In turn, stock futures point to a flat to slightly higher open. Once trade opens, though, stocks will largely be left to their own volition, given that there is no domestic data on tap and the latest round of earnings has been largely inconsequential. As things currently stand, the stock market is up 0.8% this week. That puts it on pace for its third straight weekly gain.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.50. The tone around stock futures has improved slightly in recent minutes. Meanwhile, commodities are mixed, which has the CRB Commodity Index stuck at the flat line. In its first few minutes of pit trade, oil is up with a 0.7% gain at $86.95 per barrel. Natural gas has rebounded from its prior session loss to trade with a 0.7% gain at $3.89 per MMBtu. Gold prices are unchanged at $1384.60 per ounce, but silver prices have resumed their rally so that they trade with a 0.5% gain at $31.73 per ounce after prices in the continuing contract hit a new 30-year high of $31.96 per ounce earlier this morning.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.50. Domestic stock futures are still flat. Meanwhile, Germany's DAX is currently up 0.1%, but on pace for a 0.6% weekly gain. For the second straight session Commerzbank is a leader an Volkswagen is a laggard. Germany reported that its January PPI increased by 1.2%, which is a pick up from the 0.7% increase posted for December. France's CAC has fallen to a 0.1% loss, but it is still up 1.2% this week. BNP Paribas, Sanofi-Aventis (SNY), and LVMH Moet Hennessey have been heavy drags in the latest round of trade. Carrefour has been a primary source of support, though. Britan's FTSE is currently off by 0.6% and headed for a 0.1% weekly loss as HSBC (HBC) and metal and mining plays Rio Tinto (RIO), BHP Billiton (BHP), and Anglo American drag on broad trade. BP Plc (BP) and Vodafone (VOD) have offered support. According to data, retail sales in the United Kingdom climbed 1.9% during January. That marks a strong rebound from the downwardly revised 1.4% drop during December.

In Asia, mainland China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 0.9% loss as declining issues outnumbered advancers by more than 2-to-1 amid worries about a hike in reserve requirements. Suspicion was confirmed after the close, when it was announced that another 50 basis points have been added to the country's Reserve Requirement Ratio. PetroChina (PTR) and China Petroleum (SNP) weighed most heavily on action in the final session of the week. CSR Corp and China Citic Bank showed strength. Despite broad weakness Friday, the Shanghai Composite scored a 2.6% weekly gain. It has advanced for four straight weeks. Hong Kong's Hang Seng put together a 1.3% gain. Banking issues HSBC, China Construction Bank, Industrial & Commercial Bank, and Bank of China led the move. China Life Insurance was a laggard, though. The Hang Seng advanced 3.4% this week. Japan's Nikkei eked out a 0.1% gain, even though its decliners outnumbered its advancing issues. That helped preserve a weekly gain of 2.2%. Specific to Friday's action, Softbank and Fast Retailing were primary leaders in the move. Kyocera (KYO) and TDK Corp offset some of their strength, though. Japan reported that department store sales fell 1.1% in January after a 1.5% drop during December.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.00. Modest gains in the prior session have the S&P 500 up a little less than 1% this week, but stock futures are flat ahead of trade for Friday. The neutral tone actually marks an improvement from a few hours ago, when stock futures and foreign markets moved lower amid news that China hiked its Reserve Requirement Ratio by another 50 basis points. Europe's major bourses remain mixed. Asia's major averages already concluded the weak in mixed fashion. There have been few other cues for early morning trade; earnings have been of little broad interest and there are no economic announcements on tap for today.

06:56 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.80.

06:56 am : Nikkei...10842.80...+6.20...+0.10%. Hang Seng...23595.24...+293.40...+1.30%.

06:56 am : FTSE...6053.40...-34.00...-0.60%. DAX...7398.22...-7.30...-0.10%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
Skype Messenger: kebec2002
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